2014 Tour de France July 18, Stage 13: Saint-Étienne - Chamrousse 197.5km

[Escarabajo]

I agree: my point isn't that either will be stronger than Nibali, or stronger than Pinot or Porte for that matter. But if they are capable (genuine question), and they were to take turns "going up the road" (not all-out attacks) it's possible that after several tries the big guys in the group will start looking at each other and saying "you go chase them this time." And maybe either Bardet or Peraud (more likely) is finally let loose. Eventually Astana would turn the screws to bring that escapee back if they got to a virtual yellow situation. But if that forces Astana's hand, that will leave them a little more vulnerable to counter-attacks.

Or not.

Yes. On paper you are correct.

But ever since I have been watching the Tour people always make those suggestions, but the Tour is so big that everyone has their own agenda. Everyone is watching for their own interest to keep their high position in GC, so nobody wants to be the sacrificial lamb. So that situation has always played into the hands of the big favorite, whoever that person is. Even if we don't like it. That's the way that has always been.

That's why you always see the Vino option in every poll, because he was an anomaly. He was always attacking even if he didn't have to power. Everybody liked that.

 

[greenedge]

Go Porte...

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Pappy will lay the groundwork for his TdF overall victory on this stage.

Forza Horner.

 

[Alcanelo]

Horner to lose over 2 mins here

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Horner to lose over 2 mins here

Pappy will smash this with his patented 20 minute standing attack.

 

[manafana]

Horner will be flying on the last week, mark my words

he seems confident and warm weather in the final week plays into his hands.

 

[Tournesol]

Hoping for a strong break tomorrow,7 or 8 good quality riders no threat on GC up the road battling for the stage.Separate GC race behind them.

 

[Sciatic]

Yes. On paper you are correct.

But ever since I have been watching the Tour people always make those suggestions, but the Tour is so big that everyone has their own agenda. Everyone is watching for their own interest to keep their high position in GC, so nobody wants to be the sacrificial lamb. So that situation has always played into the hands of the big favorite, whoever that person is. Even if we don't like it. That's the way that has always been.

That's why you always see the Vino option in every poll, because he was an anomaly. He was always attacking even if he didn't have to power. Everybody liked that.

Yup, well said.

 

[Sciatic]

Pappy will smash this with his patented 20 minute standing attack.

Oh good, I'll make sure to watch with the French announcers to see if they mockingly laugh and say (when he briefly puts his **** on the saddle), "Oh, look, he's sitting down."

 

[luckyboy]

Hopefully Pinot/Bardet attack for the win.

Would be nice to see Reichenbach show something but he hasn't been up there on the climbs so far.

 

[The Hitch]

This is where Contador's and Froome's crashes really begin to damage the Tour. One of the best TDF routes this millenium, and looks like it could just be a procession.

 

[The Shadow]

Valverde Nibs Porte

 

[More Strides than Rides]

This is where Contador's and Froome's crashes really begin to damage the Tour. One of the best TDF routes this millenium, and looks like it could just be a procession.

I hate to say it, but the best possibility is that Nibali crashes out. Spots 2-12 within 3 minutes of each other, it would be awesome to see what otherwise tier 2 riders do when they see a realistic opportunity for a step on the podium.

 

[Warhawk]

Hoping for a strong break tomorrow,7 or 8 good quality riders no threat on GC up the road battling for the stage.Separate GC race behind them.

My favorite thing about mountain top finishes is when there's a big break that gets strung out on the mountain and watching the GC guys creep up and swallow them one by one with it being a desperately close call whether the last guy stays away (plus a good GC fight in the process, of course).

 

[alin.constantin89]

Froome stage 2 mountains in Dauphine took 4 secons to Kelderman LOL with all those useless accelerations.. .Is this the guy you wanted to see in LeTour? )
Go Vincenzo

 

[hoolaparara]

Sagan to finally win from a break.

 

[JaffaGT]

Easy win for Rolland

 

[alin.constantin89]

Froome stage 2 mountains in Dauphine took 4 seconds to Kelderman with all those useless accelerations LOL.. .Is this the guy you wanted to see in LeTour? )
Go Vincenzo

 

[Climbing]

This is where Contador's and Froome's crashes really begin to damage the Tour. One of the best TDF routes this millenium, and looks like it could just be a procession.

I never expected Froome to get over the cobbles anyway, if not with a big time loss, even superior of Contador.

But yeah, Alberto behind in time would have animated the race like he usually does.

Nibali looks super strong atm, who would dare to attack (unless it's 2 km from finish line)?

 

[Jerkovin]

The way this Tour has gone, just waiting for nibs to crash and burn.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

This is where Contador's and Froome's crashes really begin to damage the Tour. One of the best TDF routes this millenium, and looks like it could just be a procession.

They were both in the TdF last year. That was a procession too on MTFs. Just a strong train going up the last climb ending with a sprint from somebody or a couple of riders. Tactics minimal. Some model on all MTFs regardless of who participates.

Strong train, wheelsucking, sprint.

Astana will do the train part today.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I don't expect the pace on the two key climbs to be too high, considering there are no elite climbers in contention for the overall.

This will obviously benefit Nibali, who should still be relatively fresh regardless and - with a slow enough pace - can rely on his trademark accelerations to take another ~ 20 seconds ...or more if the rest is racing for second place. Hope not.

 

[ILovecycling]

They were both in the TdF last year. That was a procession too on MTFs. Just a strong train going up the last climb ending with a sprint from somebody or a couple of riders. Tactics minimal. Some model on all MTFs regardless of who participates.

Strong train, wheelsucking, sprint.

Astana will do the train part today.

Yeah,it would have been a real borefest

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Yeah,it would have been a real borefest

Again, its the same model. Just a strong train from one of the teams on the last climb and the watt guys sprints in the end. I think its pretty boring. You can't convince me otherwise. I understand you think its interesting however. There are things I find interesting, that you might go to sleep over.

The stage I found most compelling GC wise at CdD was the last one where Contador lost as a result of a weak team and aggressive racing from some riders at the start of the stage. That whole stage was exciting. More than 1 hour of proper race action.

Today's stage could deliver, but it requires ag2r and Sky drops the train and wheelsucking concept and gets to work early on the stage. Movistar too, but I doubt they will be in business before the 2nd rest day.

So my expectations are always low on MTFs regardless of who participates.

But I can always be surprised to the upside.

 

[manafana]

I don't see rodriguez today, points are light enough and big weekend ahead he might well hold his fire.