2014 Tour de France, Stage 10: Mulhouse > La Planche des Belles Filles 161.5 Km

[Parrulo]

I am expecting a 20-30s gap, if he doesn't get that I'll be very worried

It's very easy, he needs 2'30" and there are 5 MTF, he needs 30s per MTF but I hope he attacks on the penultimate climb, La Planche is "only" 6km

I don't think he can really gain that much on this climb. It's too short, Nibali would need to blow up for Contador to gain 30 seconds.

This stage is much harder than in 2012 so a lot could change, but even with super Sky there were 25 riders inside 2 minutes in 2012 and the real favourites were all within 7 seconds.

 

[Red Rick]

This will be in no way comparable to the way it was climbed in 2012. Back then they hit it with the whole bunch, cause iirc only a couple of cat 3 climbs preceded it. Riders will be fried when they hit the climb. I expect Majka and Rogers to do the damage on the earlier climbs, so that Roche can pull for 1 or 2 kilometers before launching Contador.

 

[MBotero]

I'm sure Contador will try to win this,to match Froome victory in 2012 and he'll get his 3 seconds gap to Nibali and a few more to Richie.

 

[Red Rick]

Also,

 

[Miburo]

I don't think he can really gain that much on this climb. It's too short, Nibali would need to blow up for Contador to gain 30 seconds.

This stage is much harder than in 2012 so a lot could change, but even with super Sky there were 25 riders inside 2 minutes in 2012 and the real favourites were all within 7 seconds.

Can't really use that as a comparison since the best rider (froome) was hold on a leash. That won't be the case tommorow

 

[Carols]

Should have been on a weekend.

Darn those French for putting their race on their national holiday!!!

Alberto Contador for the Win!!!! Nibali for Yellow

 

[Netserk]

I don't think he can really gain that much on this climb. It's too short, Nibali would need to blow up for Contador to gain 30 seconds.

This stage is much harder than in 2012 so a lot could change, but even with super Sky there were 25 riders inside 2 minutes in 2012 and the real favourites were all within 7 seconds.

If they had ridden for Froome and he had attacked instead of pacing the group, he would've won with more than 20'' to Nibali, 30'' not unrealistic at all.

edit: and he lost 25'' to Horner on Peña Cabarga, so 20'' to Contador tomorrow should be realistic if Contador is flying.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Also,

First Tour stage win in half a decade for Alberto please

 

[Parrulo]

If they had ridden for Froome and he had attacked instead of pacing the group, he would've won with more than 20'' to Nibali, 30'' not unrealistic at all.

I don't think the difference between 2014 Contador and 2014 Tour Nibali is as big as the difference between 2012 Tour Froome and 2012 Nibali.

Nibali clearly improved a lot over the last 2 years and seems to be in great shape .

I really hope they ride the entire stage full gas because that could give us huge differences but i won't bet my house on it as i don't think there is single team capable of doing it.

 

[Netserk]

I don't think the difference between 2014 Contador and 2014 Tour Nibali is as big as the difference between 2012 Tour Froome and 2012 Nibali.

Nibali clearly improved a lot over the last 2 years and seems to be in great shape .

I really hope they ride the entire stage full gas because that could give us huge differences but i won't bet my house on it as i don't think there is single team capable of doing it.

My first paragraph was a response to your second.

 

[Parrulo]

My first paragraph was a response to your second.

Well Horner was flying at the Vuelta while Nibali didn't look as strong as he was in the Giro.

I am still not truly convinced by his form, but if he truly is better than he was at the Giro last year than i think 30 seconds is a bit too much, even for this Contador.

 

[Netserk]

Well Horner was flying at the Vuelta while Nibali didn't look as strong as he was in the Giro.

I am still not truly convinced by his form, but if he truly is better than he was at the Giro last year than i think 30 seconds is a bit too much, even for this Contador.

As I wrote, I also don't think 30'' is realistic, but maybe 20'' is.

 

[LaFlorecita]

As I wrote, I also don't think 30'' is realistic, but maybe 20'' is.

On the other hand, La Planche is quite steep, Contador might have more trouble dropping Nibali on the less steep MTFs that are still to come. So if he can't take half a minute here....

 

[Linkinito]

Well, the stage might not be in a weekend for most people, but in France, its still the weekend as its the National Day, so logically a public holiday.

 

[the sceptic]

I just hope Porte doesnt drop Contador, otherwise the forum will break permanently.

 

[Netserk]

On the other hand, La Planche is quite steep, Contador might have more trouble dropping Nibali on the less steep MTFs that are still to come. So if he can't take half a minute here....

Chamrousse could be another 40'', but again Contador would have to be flying for that.

 

[sir fly]

I don't think anything significant will happen before La Planche des Belles Filles.
Standard plot - sharp tempo, thinning of the group, "goal gradient".

 

[LaFlorecita]

Chamrousse could be another 40'', but again Contador would have to be flying for that.

In other words he'll need to go from far out at some point... that'll be very difficult vs Nibali

 

[Linkinito]

Btw, do not forget that the chalet at the Planche des Belles Filles was set on fire two weeks ago.

 

[MBotero]

I just hope Porte doesnt drop Contador, otherwise the forum will break permanently.

I don't get what's wrong with Richie dropping Contador ,maybe you forgot he's team leader now,you don't talk about a super-domestique anymore

 

[Netserk]

In other words he'll need to go from far out at some point... that'll be very difficult vs Nibali

20 tomorrow, 40 and 20-30 in the Alpes, and then he's only one minute behind before the Pyrenees. Why would he have to go long? Besides I think he's strategy is to put pressure on Nibali on every MTF until he cracks (which he very well could do), so as long as he is capable of gaining time at every opportunity he has a good chance to win.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I don't get what's wrong with Richie dropping Contador ,maybe you forgot he's team leader now,you don't talk about a super-domestique anymore

We are talking about a guy who finished 20 minutes down on every mountain instead of being up there to help his team leader in 2011. If he beats said team leader now...

 

[LaFlorecita]

20 tomorrow, 40 and 20-30 in the Alpes, and then he's only one minute behind before the Pyrenees. Why would he have to go long? Besides I think he's strategy is to put pressure on Nibali on every MTF until he cracks (which he very well could do), so as long as he is capable of gaining time at every opportunity he has a good chance to win.

Well I guess only time will tell

 

[Red Rick]

I've look at the profiles, and Chamrousse is not suited for a short range attack. The first half is by far the hardes, averageing like 8,5-9%. After that, 5,5 and 6,5% gradients kick in and it might be impossible to ride away.

 

[Carols]

I just hope Porte doesnt drop Contador, otherwise the forum will break permanently.

If Lil Richie aka underdawg drops either Nibali or Contador I think I'll puke on my computer!