2014 Tour de France, Stage 10: Mulhouse > La Planche des Belles Filles 161.5 Km

[Ruby United]

Contador ftw. Porte 2nd, small gaps

 

[Tigerion]

The latter. And he was 26 so not eligible for the white jersey. Later, at Sky, Porte explained in interviews that Contador "simply didn't need him"... While that may be true for the Giro, he did need him for the Tour, and he was nowhere to be found. Well, 20 minutes down the mountain to catch Contador if he'd fall off

Ok, I knew he was young but a bit older than I thought.
I vaguely remember those comments by Porte, that was when he was sulking because he didn't get a pay rise, was not going to be allowed to ride as leader and wanted to break contract and ride a Sky.

I guess the other difference is that he had already ridden the Giro that year which he hasn't this year so will be coming in much fresher.



As for today as much as I would like to see Porte win I don't think he will. It's a bit steep for him and not long enough. Think he could make big gains towards locking in a podium spot though.

Contador
Nibs +10
Porte + 20 - 30

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I don't know what some of you all are smoking thinking Nibali can stay within 10 or so seconds of Contador today. It's a hard stage that shouldn't be underestimated.

25 seconds at least.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I don't know what some of you all are smoking thinking Nibali can stay within 10 or so seconds of Contador today. It's a hard stage that shouldn't be underestimated.

25 seconds at least.

Hope you're right fingers crossed

 

[Jack_89]

If he couldn't gain 30s or more , it will be a bad day and Nibali becomes the real favorite for final win.

This is the reason 'cause he must attack on col de chevreres

 

[No_Balls]

Does anyone give Gallopin much of a chance of keeping the jersey tomorrow? If he can hold n he would likely keep it until stage 13.

How much time do you see Gallopin losing tomorrow?

Had the situation in the overall been different and that GC had been a little closer the odds would've been higher. But i will be hard riding from the word go here and cant really see him doing a Vasseur here. The others would like Nibali back to yellow if the proper time arent gained.

 

[dduff442]

Vinokourov was doing a little expectations management yesterday, pointing out that Wiggins lost a few seconds (to Froome) on Planche des Belles Filles in 2012 and went on to win. I think the message is that on the 20% gradients in the last few hundred metres Nibali may not have the power to match Contador -- 15 secs or so may be considered acceptable losses on the day.

I don't think Tinkoff-Saxo will be as aggressive as a team today as some are expecting. It's Bastille day, so any aggression would just amount to giving up free assistance from the likes of Bardet and Pinot anyway, and the mostly downhill approaches to Col des Chèvres would make any effort before that a waste.

Personally, I think Nibali will need to calculate whether it's a good idea to track Contador's accelerations on the last two climbs. They're very steep so wheelsucking will pay barely any dividends anyway. A more even pace would suit Nibs better, though it may be tempting to stick at the front and attack on the descent from Col des Chèvres.

A loss of 5 secs would be encouraging, 15 secs tolerable and 45 secs or more a poor result. He'd never have let Gallopin in yellow if he didn't feel he'd a real shot at the top spot, so I'm going with 5-15 secs max.

 

[dduff442]

Seeing as everyone's guessing the margin, maybe a poll is in order?

 

[murali]

Seeing as everyone's guessing the margin, maybe a poll is in order?

i second.

sorry, i cud hav started, but i am stuck with work tht i shud hav completed day before yest



quick calls:

Purito, AC, Nibali, Valv, Porte and any lucky soul with 2km to go.

Purito attacks and takes stage. some French guy takes second.

AC to make 28 sec over Nibali, and Nibali fans saying tht AC has lost the TdF.

My heart says:
Voeckler FTW.
Purito 2nd, Talansky 3rd
AC making 1:30 min over Nibbles, 2 min over Porte.
Nibali fans getting brazilled in the forums.
Kadri getting back Polka by a very small margin.

 

[Rollthedice]

Vinokourov was doing a little expectations management yesterday, pointing out that Wiggins lost a few seconds (to Froome) on Planche des Belles Filles in 2012 and went on to win. I think the message is that on the 20% gradients in the last few hundred metres Nibali may not have the power to match Contador -- 15 secs or so may be considered acceptable losses on the day.

I don't think Tinkoff-Saxo will be as aggressive as a team today as some are expecting. It's Bastille day, so any aggression would just amount to giving up free assistance from the likes of Bardet and Pinot anyway, and the mostly downhill approaches to Col des Chèvres would make any effort before that a waste.

Personally, I think Nibali will need to calculate whether it's a good idea to track Contador's accelerations on the last two climbs. They're very steep so wheelsucking will pay barely any dividends anyway. A more even pace would suit Nibs better, though it may be tempting to stick at the front and attack on the descent from Col des Chèvres.

A loss of 5 secs would be encouraging, 15 secs tolerable and 45 secs or more a poor result. He'd never have let Gallopin in yellow if he didn't feel he'd a real shot at the top spot, so I'm going with 5-15 secs max.

5 seconds loss would be fantastic for Nibali and a real blow for Contador, that would mean he stays with Bertie until the finish. 15 sec would very good. I tend to go with 25 which is still good given his overall advantage and the fact this is the last stage before rest but it will be very hard.

 

[Ryaguas]

If Alberto smells blood He will go for the kill and if He is in great shape we could see a Verbier here... not an Etna cuz is not that long... I think that Nibali is pokerfacing hard and later He will show his true colors

 

[xanadu]

i second.

sorry, i cud hav started, but i am stuck with work tht i shud hav completed day before yest



quick calls:

Purito, AC, Nibali, Valv, Porte and any lucky soul with 2km to go.

Purito attacks and takes stage. some French guy takes second.

AC to make 28 sec over Nibali, and Nibali fans saying tht AC has lost the TdF.

My heart says:
Voeckler FTW.
Purito 2nd, Talansky 3rd
AC making 1:30 min over Nibbles, 2 min over Porte.
Nibali fans getting brazilled in the forums.
Kadri getting back Polka by a very small margin.

Methinks you talk with your heart and not your head.

I fear that Thomas (couer de lion) Voeckler is over the hill, and not as you suggest about to climb majesticaly to a fanmous victory. I think Purito is more likely to gobble up more KOM points rather than get 2nd as for Talansky coming 3rd, it really is time that you came back to the real world.

 

[whittashau]

i second.

sorry, i cud hav started, but i am stuck with work tht i shud hav completed day before yest



quick calls:

Purito, AC, Nibali, Valv, Porte and any lucky soul with 2km to go.

Purito attacks and takes stage. some French guy takes second.

AC to make 28 sec over Nibali, and Nibali fans saying tht AC has lost the TdF.

My heart says:
Voeckler FTW.
Purito 2nd, Talansky 3rd
AC making 1:30 min over Nibbles, 2 min over Porte.
Nibali fans getting brazilled in the forums.
Kadri getting back Polka by a very small margin.

If AC takes 28 seconds I feel it'd be pretty much curtains for Nibali, and I'm sure most Nibali fans would agree.

 

[dduff442]

One scenario not considered much is the prospect of aggression from Astana. They might try to get someone in the break or to mix it up between Platserwasel and Col des Chèvres, a 70km stretch relatively suited to Nibali. If they don't, I'm thinking at least Nibali believes he can make it to #1 in Paris with the margin he's already built up. But he's promised us more attacks, so...

 

[HappyLoser]

This will be monstrous, huge gaps and total GC mess. I'd like to see AC blowing up race on Col de Chevreres. Kwiatkowski + Gallopin +Fuglsang massive losses.

Top 10 GC after stage:

1. Nibali
2. Porte + 1:20
3. Contador + 1:40
4. Valverde + 2:50
5. Machado + 4:30
6. Bardet + 5:30
7. JVDB + 5:30
8. Rolland +6:00
9. Costa + 6:30
10. Fuglsang + 7:30

 

[xanadu]

I just hope our two American friends can remain vertical today and refrain from visiting, the tarmac.
TJ and Talansky to remain upright.

 

[Cimber]

This will be monstrous, huge gaps and total GC mess. I'd like to see AC blowing up race on Col de Chevreres. Kwiatkowski + Gallopin +Fuglsang massive losses.

Top 10 GC after stage:

1. Nibali
2. Porte + 1:20
3. Contador + 1:40
4. Valverde + 2:50
5. Machado + 4:30
6. Bardet + 5:30
7. JVDB + 5:30
8. Rolland +6:00
9. Costa + 6:30
10. Fuglsang + 7:30

No way Porte will put that much time into Nibali

 

[Frosty]

Bastille Day and a fairly quiet Voeckler in the last few days = Voeckler in the break i guess

 

[Sasquatch]

Riblon to win the stage from the break

De Marchi to increase his KOM lead and get the jersey

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Well here it is. The hardest day before the rest day.

IMO Contador has been saving his team for today (despite ITV 4 thinking the entire team was 'dropped' yesterday at exactly the same time).

Therefore Saxo will drive it hard today make no mistake about that! It will all be a question who can stay with the pace.

Think we will see Sky fall apart pretty quickly.

Thanks to Zam_Olyas for a good opening thread and a 'brief' mention

Clearly a day for yellow panties !

 

[The Barb]

Riblon to win the stage from the break

Agree. Riblon has a clear pattern of attacking on the first mountain top finish. Backing him to win then partially trading out in running is a good tactic for this stage.

 

[Cimber]

Well here it is. The hardest day before the rest day.

IMO Contador has been saving his team for today (despite ITV 4 thinking the entire team was 'dropped' yesterday at exactly the same time).

Therefore Saxo will drive it hard today make no mistake about that! It will all be a question who can stay with the pace.

Think we will see Sky fall apart pretty quickly.

Thanks to Zam_Olyas for a good opening thread and a 'brief' mention

Clearly a day for yellow panties !

Tbh I dont think TS has the team to drive hard the whole day. I think they will w8 to drive hard till the penultimate climb

 

[manafana]

Rodriguez been talked up but surely he will resist this stage is going be hottly contested with all the frenchies interested and a rest day coming.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Tbh I dont think TS has the team to drive hard the whole day. I think they will w8 to drive hard till the penultimate climb

Yeh fair enough that would make sense.

But do think that there will be a concerted effort to drive the pace hard today by Tinkoff.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Tbh I dont think TS has the team to drive hard the whole day. I think they will w8 to drive hard till the penultimate climb

If Contador wants the stage they'll have to control the race from the start