2014 Tour de France, Stage 8: Tomblaine – Gerardmer/La Mauselaine: 161km

[Fight.The.Power]

Might not be crash related - it's almost a natural law that there's always one GC rider who doesn't have good legs on the first day with some tough climbs.

The natural law holds that they almost always come good too - which almost always leaves everyone speculating 'Hmmm....imagine if they didn't lose 10 minutes on the first climbing stage....'

Who will it be?

Mollema?

Mmmm OK but you must bare in mind that we have already had probably the most difficult opening week in years . . .

Maybe we have already seen that 'natural law' that you talk of take effect to some degree already?

 

[Fight.The.Power]

AT, that is a heavy fall . He will feel the effect tomorrow morning.

Yeh I was gutted to see him go down. Still had the fire to give Gerrans a piece of his mind afterwards however!

I'm sure he'll be fine tomorrow, still buzzing from the Dauphine !

 

[qwerty16]

Might not be crash related - it's almost a natural law that there's always one GC rider who doesn't have good legs on the first day with some tough climbs.

Cunego is not here however.

 

[woodburn]

Feels like could be a result similar to Mende in 2010 were Contador takes back 10 or so seconds from Nibali.

 

[rghysens]

Regarding his current form, I can't see anyone gaining any time on Nibali.

 

[The Hegelian]

Mmmm OK but you must bare in mind that we have already had probably the most difficult opening week in years . . .

Maybe we have already seen that 'natural law' that you talk of take effect to some degree already?

Yeah, it's been tough so far - but the natural law I speak of is about the first real climbing stage. For whatever reason, some quality goat who would normally be in the leading group on a hors categorie, gets dropped on a second cat.

The only exception I can think of is '12, when Sky dropped pretty much everyone.

 

[RobbieCanuck]

Nibali knows they will all be coming at him tomorrow. His mental state will be key. His form seems OK. Contador to attack on the Col de Grosse Pierre. He will gain 20 seconds on Nibali but lose some modest time to other GC contenders. Valverde to win.

 

[HappyLoser]

Real test for Kwiatkowski and his GC ambitions. In my opinion he'll drop like a stone with Sagan.

 

[sultanofhyd]

Were you guys asleep during the Dauphine? No one is gonna drop Contador. The only guy who had any chance of that is now nursing a broken wrist.

 

[Netserk]

I recall it being very uneven and difficult when I rode it. I guess that's fairly obvious from the profile.

What I mean is the steep parts don't feel as consistently steep as that would indicate, more up and down all the time.

Yeah that's also what I've heard and thought when I saw the map of it. The steep part is the zigzaging part of it. Would IMO have been ideal without the last climb so they finished in the city, as this climb is perfect for an attack.

 

[SKSemtex]

Stupid pool that was probably best to ignore otherwice some of you might look like idiot tonight.

As I watched betting sites this morning he is suprisingly still in top 10. Better than Fuglsang, Spilak, Mollema, Costa

Almost as good as Rolland

 

[karlboss]

If GC team tactics fall Sagans way he could make it to the final climb, but at this sort of steepness I can't see him matching the top GC guys and that being the case, maybe it's a good day to take it easy and attempt to win tomorrow, but on the other hand tomorrow is a golden day for the 2nd tier GC riders to upset the applecart and if that's the case maybe a 10th today will be better than 30th tomorrow.

 

[SKSemtex]

If GC team tactics fall Sagans way he could make it to the final climb, but at this sort of steepness I can't see him matching the top GC guys and that being the case, maybe it's a good day to take it easy and attempt to win tomorrow, but on the other hand tomorrow is a golden day for the 2nd tier GC riders to upset the applecart and if that's the case maybe a 10th today will be better than 30th tomorrow.

I do think he and the team should rest and go for stage 9, but you never know with Sagan.

 

[murali]

this is one stage where we may have two battles; one for GC, one for stage win.

 

[greenedge]

Jrod (I need him for the prediction game). If not him Richie
Contador

Kwiatowski
Sagan
Valverde
Nibali

 

[murali]

it wud be interesting to see whether Sagan can make the final cut.

i dont know wht sky is thinking. they came somewhere in the middle in yesterday's stage and pumped up pace. then they moved back. Sky wud like to have 3 ppl in the final descent.

Garmin had actually made stage 2 interesting. so no idea whether they would repeat it today. they may not have any super-doms for the mountains, but today's stage is something they can handle pretty well.


I still think that this is a stage for Valv/Kwiato to lose. (sorry, i cant choose between them)

 

[saganftw]

sagan to win with 5 minutes advantage because the rest of the field wont believe he can win a stage

 

[ILovecycling]

sagan to win with 5 minutes advantage because the rest of the field wont believe he can win a stage

Lol great post

 

[tomorrow]

sagan to win with 5 minutes advantage because the rest of the field wont believe he can win a stage

yup, and he will attack at km 1 and be all day in the break alone, hahaha

honestly I think he will drop himself somewhere during the second climb, probably at the start of it, he might want to go into the break on stage nine, and some gap on GC and saved energy will also fit in that plan. Stage nine has break written all over it. Also, it's very similar stage to the one, that sagan came 2nd to L.L. Sanchez I think two years ago.

 

[webbie146]

Regarding his current form, I can't see anyone gaining any time on Nibali.

The last climb does not really suit Nibali. Short and steep. He can def limit his losses if his form is good though. He just needs to stay calm, don't go to far in the red and blow up

 

[webbie146]

Nibali does have a history of bonking a little in the final kilometer at times. But is that the Nibali of this year? He also does quite well in the first week and quite well on hills so we'll see.

I agree sometimes he goes to far in the red trying to keep contact with his rival. It be better if he went up in his own tempo, would minimize the time loss.

 

[rhubroma]

I agree sometimes he goes to far in the red trying to keep contact with his rival. It be better if he went up in his own tempo, would minimize the time loss.

Now, though, he can manage himself with the advantage he has. It is currently for others to go into the red, or else they loose.

 

[Eshnar]

How is the final descent? Would it be possible to attack there?

 

[ILovecycling]

yup, and he will attack at km 1 and be all day in the break alone, hahaha

honestly I think he will drop himself somewhere during the second climb, probably at the start of it, he might want to go into the break on stage nine, and some gap on GC and saved energy will also fit in that plan. Stage nine has break written all over it. Also, it's very similar stage to the one, that sagan came 2nd to L.L. Sanchez I think two years ago.

Even if he will be more than 10mins down tomorrow,breakaway is not a good idea.Nobody will want to ride with him,he so freakin good that he will climb that 1cat climb with his break-mates and thats why they won't ride with him.Best thing he can do is save his teammates today and then Cannondale to cotrol whole stage tomorrow imo

 

[indianfanboy]

How is the final descent? Would it be possible to attack there?

Nope there will be strong headwind and it is not very technical either