2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 258km

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

I'm wondering if this will be the year when Dan Martin finally tries to be competitive at AGR rather than treating it as a training ride for FW and LBL. I know it's the least suited of the three races to him, but even so he should really be at least competitive. If there was a GT stage even slightly like AGR, he'd be marking it out as a target.

 

[The Barb]

Orica have confirmed the team is riding in support of Matthews.
http://www.greenedgecycling.com/news/or ... -race.phps

Team is very solid ...
Michael Albasini
Simon Clarke
Simon Gerrans
Mathew Hayman
Daryl Impey
Michael Matthews
Christian Meier
Pieter Weening

 

[Asero831]

Re:

Orica have confirmed the team is riding in support of Matthews.
http://www.greenedgecycling.com/news/or ... -race.phps

Team is very solid ...
Michael Albasini
Simon Clarke
Simon Gerrans
Mathew Hayman
Daryl Impey
Michael Matthews
Christian Meier
Pieter Weening

Pretty strong but can they organize a chase 1.5 km from the finish when the top guns already had 8-10 seconds on them?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Orica have confirmed the team is riding in support of Matthews.
http://www.greenedgecycling.com/news/or ... -race.phps

Team is very solid ...
Michael Albasini
Simon Clarke
Simon Gerrans
Mathew Hayman
Daryl Impey
Michael Matthews
Christian Meier
Pieter Weening

Pretty strong but can they organize a chase 1.5 km from the finish when the top guns already had 8-10 seconds on them?

No chance of them pulling back 10 seconds in the last 1.5km. Not enough of the team will make it over the top 10 seconds behind the leaders, and, if they do, they will have used up so much to get within 10 seconds that they won't have anything left to chase down Gilbert or whoever else is at the front.

Their job will be to deliver Matthews to half way up the Cauberg in a good position and then hope he can hold the wheel of the favourites. If he can stay within a few metres over the top, he might get back on, can't see it though.

 

[Fernandez]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

Really want Valverde to win at least one of them, preferably Liege.

Every year since 10 years ago Valverde has been among the favourites in Ardennes. This year will be the same and everybody will be watching at him and it will be very difficult for him. But yes, i wish the man could have some glory this year. But for sure in the podium we will watch him.

 

[Asero831]

Re: Re:

Orica have confirmed the team is riding in support of Matthews.
http://www.greenedgecycling.com/news/or ... -race.phps

Team is very solid ...
Michael Albasini
Simon Clarke
Simon Gerrans
Mathew Hayman
Daryl Impey
Michael Matthews
Christian Meier
Pieter Weening

Pretty strong but can they organize a chase 1.5 km from the finish when the top guns already had 8-10 seconds on them?

No chance of them pulling back 10 seconds in the last 1.5km. Not enough of the team will make it over the top 10 seconds behind the leaders, and, if they do, they will have used up so much to get within 10 seconds that they won't have anything left to chase down Gilbert or whoever else is at the front.

Their job will be to deliver Matthews to half way up the Cauberg in a good position and then hope he can hold the wheel of the favourites. If he can stay within a few metres over the top, he might get back on, can't see it though.

Halfway? so that's still 500 meters of 6% climb. All the favorites need to have is the 150 meters 10+ degrees and that is enough to gain atleast 5 seconds on the rest of the field.

I could say that even 3m is not enough to catch the leaders as it is hard to organize a chase after an explosive tough climb

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Orica have confirmed the team is riding in support of Matthews.
http://www.greenedgecycling.com/news/or ... -race.phps

Team is very solid ...
Michael Albasini
Simon Clarke
Simon Gerrans
Mathew Hayman
Daryl Impey
Michael Matthews
Christian Meier
Pieter Weening

Pretty strong but can they organize a chase 1.5 km from the finish when the top guns already had 8-10 seconds on them?

No chance of them pulling back 10 seconds in the last 1.5km. Not enough of the team will make it over the top 10 seconds behind the leaders, and, if they do, they will have used up so much to get within 10 seconds that they won't have anything left to chase down Gilbert or whoever else is at the front.

Their job will be to deliver Matthews to half way up the Cauberg in a good position and then hope he can hold the wheel of the favourites. If he can stay within a few metres over the top, he might get back on, can't see it though.

Halfway? so that's still 500 meters of 6% climb. All the favorites need to have is the 150 meters 10+ degrees and that is enough to gain atleast 5 seconds on the rest of the field.

I could say that even 3m is not enough to catch the leaders as it is hard to organize a chase after an explosive tough climb

Exactly, that's why I don't think he will win. All the team can do is get him in a decent position before the steepest section, when the attacks will come - then Matthews will have to do his best to hang on to the favourites.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Re: Re:

I'm wondering if this will be the year when Dan Martin finally tries to be competitive at AGR rather than treating it as a training ride for FW and LBL. I know it's the least suited of the three races to him, but even so he should really be at least competitive. If there was a GT stage even slightly like AGR, he'd be marking it out as a target.

Martin hasnt been lucky in the AGR in the last 3 years (crashes), I think he would like to do well there although winning is very hard for him in AGR.

 

[The Hegelian]

The Matthews question is interesting. Seems to me that his punchy climbing is improving noticeably. He looked super strong on the Poggio......but it would be a big advance to match Gilbert/Valverde on the Cauberg. Those two just tee off on that hill. Watching them (and Gerrans if fit) ride away on the big chain ring is possibly the most predictable thing in cycling. It would be cool if Matthews was aboard that ship....but I doubt it.

I think it's more likely that Kwiatkowski equals and maybe even betters Gilbert and Valverde. Can see him winning AGR multiple times.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

I just noticed, that Stefan Schuhmacher is riding the race vor CCC. Isn't that the guy who won both ITT of the tour 2008 for gerolsteiner before they found out that he was doping? I didn't know he is racing again.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

I just noticed, that Stefan Schuhmacher is riding the race vor CCC. Isn't that the guy who won both ITT of the tour 2008 for gerolsteiner before they found out that he was doping? I didn't know he is racing again.

Yep.

Was racing for Christina Watches the last 4 seasons. CCC signed him up for 2 years I think.

 

[markene2]

Vai Rebellin!!

 

[Shardi]

Gilbert Looked good today in the pijl!!
A good indication of what will be the backwheel to hold, the last time up cauberg in order to lay hands on the Amstel trophy come sunday.

 

[The Barb]

Re:

The Matthews question is interesting. Seems to me that his punchy climbing is improving noticeably. He looked super strong on the Poggio......but it would be a big advance to match Gilbert/Valverde on the Cauberg. Those two just tee off on that hill. Watching them (and Gerrans if fit) ride away on the big chain ring is possibly the most predictable thing in cycling. It would be cool if Matthews was aboard that ship....but I doubt it.

I agree it is unlikely Matthews can hold the wheel of Gilbert/Valverde but for me the question is how unlikely is it, because if he can then he becomes the clear favourite to win. I'd give him maybe a 20% chance of holding their wheel (or being only 2-3 seconds back and able to get on) which, given his sprint, makes him a very good bet at the 16-1 at which I've backed him, or even the 10-1 at which he is still available.

Of course, Gilbert remains the one to beat. His record on the Cauberg is extraordinary. You have to go back many years to find any race where he wasn't the strongest on it. Even when Gasparotto won Gilbert was probably the strongest as he did all the work bringing back Freire.

 

[mrhender]

I'am putting some money on a Valgren breakthrough victory....

 

[Velolover2]

After today, I think Orica should work for Albasini or at least give him a free role instead. It's simply too tough for Matthews unless the pace is very slow.

Albasini is a way better climber, better than Gerrans, and almost as fast. About the level of Valverde and Kwaitkowski in a sprint, I think.

 

[The Barb]

Re:

After today, I think Orica should work for Albasini or at least give him a free role instead. It's simply too tough for Matthews unless the pace is very slow.

Albasini is a way better climber, better than Gerrans, and almost as fast. About the level of Valverde and Kwaitkowski in a sprint, I think.

Not sure why you would think that "after today". Matthews is much improved going uphill and nothing today suggested otherwise, together with outsprinting Gilbert and Gallopin by 3-4 bike lengths easing down.

Albasini's last five rides at Amstel: DNF, 55th, 87th, 62nd, 41st.
(none of these within 2 minutes of the winner).

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

After today, I think Orica should work for Albasini or at least give him a free role instead. It's simply too tough for Matthews unless the pace is very slow.

Albasini is a way better climber, better than Gerrans, and almost as fast. About the level of Valverde and Kwaitkowski in a sprint, I think.

Albasini is fast, but not as fast as those two, especially Valverde. Just look last year's Lombardia. And I don't think he can also hold their wheels on Cauberg. Matthews is far better option, with Gerrans not in best form

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

After today, I think Orica should work for Albasini or at least give him a free role instead. It's simply too tough for Matthews unless the pace is very slow.

Albasini is a way better climber, better than Gerrans, and almost as fast. About the level of Valverde and Kwaitkowski in a sprint, I think.

Albasini is fast, but not as fast as those two, especially Valverde. Just look last year's Lombardia. And I don't think he can also hold their wheels on Cauberg. Matthews is far better option, with Gerrans not in best form

Albasini is the Swiss Valverde, way better on home soil
I have to agree with you, I also think that Albasini can't handle the distance, last years Lombardia was by fa his best performance in a +250km long race.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

The Matthews question is interesting. Seems to me that his punchy climbing is improving noticeably. He looked super strong on the Poggio......but it would be a big advance to match Gilbert/Valverde on the Cauberg. Those two just tee off on that hill. Watching them (and Gerrans if fit) ride away on the big chain ring is possibly the most predictable thing in cycling. It would be cool if Matthews was aboard that ship....but I doubt it.

I agree it is unlikely Matthews can hold the wheel of Gilbert/Valverde but for me the question is how unlikely is it, because if he can then he becomes the clear favourite to win. I'd give him maybe a 20% chance of holding their wheel (or being only 2-3 seconds back and able to get on) which, given his sprint, makes him a very good bet at the 16-1 at which I've backed him, or even the 10-1 at which he is still available.

Of course, Gilbert remains the one to beat. His record on the Cauberg is extraordinary. You have to go back many years to find any race where he wasn't the strongest on it. Even when Gasparotto won Gilbert was probably the strongest as he did all the work bringing back Freire.

I'd say maybe 30-35%, and agree that he's a very good bet at those odds. It's also plausible that Gilbert could have a problem/off day etc. But his record is indeed extraordinary. He basically incarnated to ride the Cauberg.

 

[Pulp]

Re: Re:

The Matthews question is interesting. Seems to me that his punchy climbing is improving noticeably. He looked super strong on the Poggio......but it would be a big advance to match Gilbert/Valverde on the Cauberg. Those two just tee off on that hill. Watching them (and Gerrans if fit) ride away on the big chain ring is possibly the most predictable thing in cycling. It would be cool if Matthews was aboard that ship....but I doubt it.

I agree it is unlikely Matthews can hold the wheel of Gilbert/Valverde but for me the question is how unlikely is it, because if he can then he becomes the clear favourite to win. I'd give him maybe a 20% chance of holding their wheel (or being only 2-3 seconds back and able to get on) which, given his sprint, makes him a very good bet at the 16-1 at which I've backed him, or even the 10-1 at which he is still available.

Of course, Gilbert remains the one to beat. His record on the Cauberg is extraordinary. You have to go back many years to find any race where he wasn't the strongest on it. Even when Gasparotto won Gilbert was probably the strongest as he did all the work bringing back Freire.

If you got Matthews at 16/1 then that was a steal.. Betfair has him at 7,4

JRod at 12 seems decent though

 

[Sasquatch]

Felline could be a darkhorse the way he is racing at the moment. He's strong. He attacked yesterday a lot. He'll attack so when Gilbert and Valverde go, he'll try and go with them. The form he is in, he could stay with them.

 

[Velolover2]

What about Nico Roche? Maybe from a break? He is not bad in this terrain.

 

[movingtarget]

I think it will be the usual suspects : Valverde, Gilbert, Albasini etc minus Gerrans who won't have the form. Matthews will probably be a protected rider also for GE but I have some doubts about him winning. GE look to have a strong team going. I think Rodriguez is better suited at Fleche. Martin might be a possibility as well.

 

[The Barb]

Re: Re:

If you got Matthews at 16/1 then that was a steal.. Betfair has him at 7,4

JRod at 12 seems decent though

Yeah, the $17 on Matthews was available until earlier this week with Luxbet. I've taken him through heaps of parlays of which he is the final leg. If he wins it will be the biggest win of my life. He is still available at $11 with them, which remains the best price in the world as far as I can see.

They also had Gilbert at $8 until a couple of days ago. Crazy good value too, obviously.