2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 258km

[lemon cheese cake]

Re:

What about Nico Roche? Maybe from a break? He is not bad in this terrain.

Like former teammate Kreuziger did in 2013,

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Kelderman says he was fine, but then got the flu last week and now basically already knows he's not going to be able to do much in AGR. LottoNL are leaderless I guess.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

The Matthews question is interesting. Seems to me that his punchy climbing is improving noticeably. He looked super strong on the Poggio......but it would be a big advance to match Gilbert/Valverde on the Cauberg. Those two just tee off on that hill. Watching them (and Gerrans if fit) ride away on the big chain ring is possibly the most predictable thing in cycling. It would be cool if Matthews was aboard that ship....but I doubt it.

I agree it is unlikely Matthews can hold the wheel of Gilbert/Valverde but for me the question is how unlikely is it, because if he can then he becomes the clear favourite to win. I'd give him maybe a 20% chance of holding their wheel (or being only 2-3 seconds back and able to get on) which, given his sprint, makes him a very good bet at the 16-1 at which I've backed him, or even the 10-1 at which he is still available.

Of course, Gilbert remains the one to beat. His record on the Cauberg is extraordinary. You have to go back many years to find any race where he wasn't the strongest on it. Even when Gasparotto won Gilbert was probably the strongest as he did all the work bringing back Freire.

If you got Matthews at 16/1 then that was a steal.. Betfair has him at 7,4

JRod at 12 seems decent though

Matthews opened in 26 which obviously is crazy. I think he will surprise his critics as he has really improved his climbing a lot this year.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

What about Nico Roche? Maybe from a break? He is not bad in this terrain.

Like former teammate Kreuziger did in 2013,

I was thinking the same. Maybe they can form a break together with a guy like Dumoulin. Tony Martin is another man for a strong break, but he will probably have to work for Kwaitkowski.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

Kelderman says he was fine, but then got the flu last week and now basically already knows he's not going to be able to do much in AGR. LottoNL are leaderless I guess.

This team can't get a break.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Kelderman says he was fine, but then got the flu last week and now basically already knows he's not going to be able to do much in AGR. LottoNL are leaderless I guess.

Kelderman is more similar to Talansky and Tejay, a rider who prefers long gradual climbs. I can't see him doing well in the Ardennes. Paul Martens is the only one who can get a top 10.

 

[grizzlee]

Dan Martin says in an interview on cyclingquotes his form this year is much better heading into Amstel than previous years, he said he usually used it for building his form for fleche and liege. This year though he thinks he could do really well. Might be one to watch this year.

http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/danie ... ling_good/

 

[DFA123]

Not many mentions of Kwiatkowski on this thread. Do people think that he will struggle to stay with Gilbert/Valverde? He seemed to be coming into really good form in Pais Vasco - both with his climbing and his sprinting.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re:

Not many mentions of Kwiatkowski on this thread. Do people think that he will struggle to stay with Gilbert/Valverde? He seemed to be coming into really good form in Pais Vasco - both with his climbing and his sprinting.

He should be up there. If no one can get a solo break on the Cauberg then you will have most likely a group of 2/3/4 featuring these riders Gilbert/Valverde/Kwiatkowski/Martin

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Not many mentions of Kwiatkowski on this thread. Do people think that he will struggle to stay with Gilbert/Valverde? He seemed to be coming into really good form in Pais Vasco - both with his climbing and his sprinting.

He should be up there. If no one can get a solo break on the Cauberg then you will have most likely a group of 2/3/4 featuring these riders Gilbert/Valverde/Kwiatkowski/Martin

Presumably if that happens, then Martin would have to try to get away before the sprint - I'm not quite sure how he would manage that though - it's not like Lombardia where he could jump after a descent, he's not going to have much of a kick left after going flat out up the Cauberg. The other three are all pretty well matched in a sprint; would be interesting to see who would come out on top.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

The thing about Martin is that he's not afraid to attack. It wouldn't surprise me if he won like Gilbert did last year. It will be tough, but it wouldn't surprise me if he pulled it off.

 

[bala v]

i dont think Martin can pull this up. Amstel is not exactly a race for him, too short climbs and he is not as explosive as Gilbert, Valverde, Gerrans, Kwiatkowski, etc. He could try to win like Gilbert last year, but he cant win like that, he will never drop those guys on Cauberg. The only way is to attack earlier like Kreuziger 2013

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Kelderman says he was fine, but then got the flu last week and now basically already knows he's not going to be able to do much in AGR. LottoNL are leaderless I guess.

Kelderman is more similar to Talansky and Tejay, a rider who prefers long gradual climbs. I can't see him doing well in the Ardennes. Paul Martens is the only one who can get a top 10.

I don't agree, he's actually quite punchy on short climbs and showed that a couple of times in the last few years already, but he skipped the classics.
Now ofcourse he has no chance of doing aything but finishing. If you finish at 3 min in Br Pijl... you're far off form

 

[pablohidalgo7]

Re: Re:

Kelderman says he was fine, but then got the flu last week and now basically already knows he's not going to be able to do much in AGR. LottoNL are leaderless I guess.

Kelderman is more similar to Talansky and Tejay, a rider who prefers long gradual climbs. I can't see him doing well in the Ardennes. Paul Martens is the only one who can get a top 10.

I don't agree, he's actually quite punchy on short climbs and showed that a couple of times in the last few years already, but he skipped the classics.
Now ofcourse he has no chance of doing aything but finishing. If you finish at 3 min in Br Pijl... you're far off form

He can improves his form for the liege, in fleche I don´t see him doing better that top 20.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Kelderman says he was fine, but then got the flu last week and now basically already knows he's not going to be able to do much in AGR. LottoNL are leaderless I guess.

Kelderman is more similar to Talansky and Tejay, a rider who prefers long gradual climbs. I can't see him doing well in the Ardennes. Paul Martens is the only one who can get a top 10.

I don't agree, he's actually quite punchy on short climbs and showed that a couple of times in the last few years already, but he skipped the classics.
Now ofcourse he has no chance of doing aything but finishing. If you finish at 3 min in Br Pijl... you're far off form

He has an OK sprint, but on a short steep climb like Cauberg or Mur de Huy? Not a freaking chance.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

i dont think Martin can pull this up. Amstel is not exactly a race for him, too short climbs and he is not as explosive as Gilbert, Valverde, Gerrans, Kwiatkowski, etc. He could try to win like Gilbert last year, but he cant win like that, he will never drop those guys on Cauberg. The only way is to attack earlier like Kreuziger 2013

Agreed, Cauberg is too easy for Martin to get away. I guess he'll be using AGR mostly to gain some form for the other two races next week, where he has much more of a chance.

 

[Velolover2]

What about Jelle Vanendert, the Zubeldia of the hills? No one seems to care about him, but he is always solid in the Ardennes.

 

[nayr497]

The problem with these races is that I either have to watch them live online and miss my Sunday morning ride...or ignore the news and try and find/download a full edition a day later.

Such a conundrum!

 

[lemon cheese cake]

What I'm hoping this year is that Purito doesn't crash and have an injury for the Giro, LBL and LFW.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

What I'm hoping this year is that Purito doesn't crash and have an injury for the Giro, LBL and LFW.

The Guardian Angel is protecting him in his heart and mind.

 

[CyclingEnthusiast]

Re: Re:

What about Nico Roche? Maybe from a break? He is not bad in this terrain.

Like former teammate Kreuziger did in 2013,

Big fan of Roche but don't think he'll be able to do much tomorrow, he hasn't really trained for these races in particular and I think there will be many in better form.

 

[CyclingEnthusiast]

Re:

The problem with these races is that I either have to watch them live online and miss my Sunday morning ride...or ignore the news and try and find/download a full edition a day later.

Such a conundrum!

Just go for your ride, they will be posted online only a few hours after by Cyclinghub and let's be honest there's not going to be much going on in Amstel aside from the last kilometre

 

[CyclingEnthusiast]

Re:

What about Jelle Vanendert, the Zubeldia of the hills? No one seems to care about him, but he is always solid in the Ardennes.

Of course he is an outsider but the problem is he doesn't have the pure power the other guys do, it's similar to with Dan Martin, unless they get away in a decent move a little earlier they just won't be able to compete with Gilbert, Valverde, Kwiatkowski and maybe Matthews on the real powerclimb, of course I would love to be proven wrong

 

[Velolover2]

I really don't care about the outcome as long as Matthews doesn't win. Amstel is not supposed to be a sprinters race.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

What about Jelle Vanendert, the Zubeldia of the hills? No one seems to care about him, but he is always solid in the Ardennes.

Of course he is an outsider but the problem is he doesn't have the pure power the other guys do, it's similar to with Dan Martin, unless they get away in a decent move a little earlier they just won't be able to compete with Gilbert, Valverde, Kwiatkowski and maybe Matthews on the real powerclimb, of course I would love to be proven wrong

A few years ago, though, that was Simon Gerrans: the guy who once was a threat because of good tactical riding, who threw it all away to be a guy who came around about 7th in the uphill sprint finish in every hilly Classic. It was only when he really developed his sprint to the point where he would be a favourite from a reduced bunch that he became the rider he's now known as, and the racing has got so cowardly that it allows him to use his one weapon to win.

Also, Dan Martin is very much not a placements rider. He's a guy who has gained a lot of his palmarès out of others' cowardice, but not because he profits from cowardice like Gerrans, but because he's prepared to take a risk when nobody else wants to make the race.