2015 Giro d'Italia Stage 18: Melide > Verbania 170km

[Ataraxus]

Re:

Aru is fading, Amador will take that 3rd spot in the end

I don't mind Aru losing podium. I even don't mind Landa losing podium as long as I watch suchlike racing up those climbs.

 

[Tank Engine]

The last 50k look really cool. There are three riders I think deserve a stage win for their attacking attitude: Hesjedal (but I think he could only win such a stage from a breakaway and he's too high up on GC), Kruiswijk (see above) and Betancur. I'll go with him as he's far enough down to get in a breakaway and otherwise possibly strong enough to stay with the leaders on the climb and has a decent finishing kick.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

This stage needs Nibali....

Nah, there are enough guys who will get dropped on the climb already

lol

 

[Bushman]

Will Betancur finally be good enough? On Mortirolo he was good and this might be his best chance

 

[WheelofGear]

Landa again with Contador on his wheel failing to outsprint him. It's a real mountain.

And as the Giro has been ridden so far, there will be huge gaps again.

 

[movingtarget]

The break could succeed but they will need a pretty big gap before the climb. Aru won't want a hard stage but whether Amador is good enough over the next stages remains to be seen. I think the battle for third will continue.

 

[Escarabajo]

As somebody already said, this is Betancur best chance.

 

[hfer07]

It could well be a breakaway that takes the victory, but once again Contador & Landa will drop the ever loving soul out of the competition and increase massively their time gaps to secure both the highest podium spots...

 

[WheelofGear]

It could well be a breakaway that takes the victory, but once again Contador & Landa will drop the ever loving soul out of the competition and increase massively their time gaps to secure both the highest podium spots...

This. I think Contador should use a different tactic. Instead of getting his team even more tired for the next couple of stage, send a man up the road. It has to be either Rogers or Kreuziger. And let Astana do all the work.

 

[Sasquatch]

Kruijswijk is an adopted Tinkoff rider. Contador/Kruijswijk are going to do to Aru/Landa what they did to Contador. When Landa/Kruijswijk/Contador are all together Contador will just follow Landa's wheels whilst Kruijswijk attacks. He won't respond to any attack other than Landa. He will attack after Landa brings it back. Those two will wear down Landa and Contador will gift Kruijswijk a stage win.

 

[Jspear]

Bentacur for the win!!

 

[damian13ster]

Kruijswijk is an adopted Tinkoff rider. Contador/Kruijswijk are going to do to Aru/Landa what they did to Contador. When Landa/Kruijswijk/Contador are all together Contador will just follow Landa's wheels whilst Kruijswijk attacks. He won't respond to any attack other than Landa. He will attack after Landa brings it back. Those two will wear down Landa and Contador will gift Kruijswijk a stage win.

Why wouldn't Landa just attack at that point instead of towing Contador?
And making Landa attack earlier is a terrible tactic. It's better to let him wheelsuck if he chooses to do so so that the gaps after he attacks are minimal

 

[Sasquatch]

Kruijswijk is an adopted Tinkoff rider. Contador/Kruijswijk are going to do to Aru/Landa what they did to Contador. When Landa/Kruijswijk/Contador are all together Contador will just follow Landa's wheels whilst Kruijswijk attacks. He won't respond to any attack other than Landa. He will attack after Landa brings it back. Those two will wear down Landa and Contador will gift Kruijswijk a stage win.

Why wouldn't Landa just attack at that point instead of towing Contador?
And making Landa attack earlier is a terrible tactic. It's better to let him wheelsuck if he chooses to do so so that the gaps after he attacks are minimal

Landa won't be able to drop Contador. The only reason why he dropped Contador on the other stage was that Contador did 1000% more work than what Landa did. Landa is not stronger than Contador. Far from it.

 

[damian13ster]

Rewatched both climbs today. Landa spent more time on the front at Mortirolo than Contador did (pretty much entire time until getting caught while Alberto had couple of riders help him out).
Of course he rode it at bit slower pace, but the way he responded to Contador's attack. Zero stress, consulted with Aru, and then closed 50m gap to attacking Contador in 30 seconds still looking like its completely effortless. And then riding away like that on the false flat after they both basically wheelsucked Kruijswijk. You have to admit it was awfully impressive

Now, it is possible that if Contador just sits on his wheel then he might not be able to drop him, but I wouldn't take that risk if I was Tinkoff-Saxo. Would rather postpone attack as much as possible

 

[motty89]

Anyone know how good a descender Landa is? Is the descent very technical? If so it's an opportunity for him to gain some time

 

[casati]

Re:

Rewatched both climbs today. Landa spent more time on the front at Mortirolo than Contador did (pretty much entire time until getting caught while Alberto had couple of riders help him out).
Of course he rode it at bit slower pace, but the way he responded to Contador's attack. Zero stress, consulted with Aru, and then closed 50m gap to attacking Contador in 30 seconds still looking like its completely effortless. And then riding away like that on the false flat after they both basically wheelsucked Kruijswijk. You have to admit it was awfully impressive

Now, it is possible that if Contador just sits on his wheel then he might not be able to drop him, but I wouldn't take that risk if I was Tinkoff-Saxo. Would rather postpone attack as much as possible

Are you kidding me, what do you think Contador was doing for most of the climbing, chasing, and after the catch, Landa just sat on

 

[damian13ster]

Yeah, after the catch it was Kruijswijk riding the group.
And rewatch the Aprica ascent. Contador did couple of pulls but..... every time he went to the front, Aru- who was absolutely dead since Mortirolo was making up time! until the moment that Kruijswijk got frustrated and took to the front....
Seriously, I am not saying here that Mikel spent more energy. But the difference wasn't significant.
And the way Landa responded to attacks and rode away (for gods sake, he created 200m gap on 600m stretch of the road) was awfully impressive.

It is not far-fetched to say that he can drop Contador, therefore the best tactic is not to take any risks, but to sit on his wheel and try not to make him attack too early

 

[Jalgratas95]

Re:

Landa Meana!

I'm sure that even if Landa managed to get away from Contador that Contador can catch him on the descent or on flat before the finish.

 

[Ataraxus]

Kruijswijk is an adopted Tinkoff rider. Contador/Kruijswijk are going to do to Aru/Landa what they did to Contador. When Landa/Kruijswijk/Contador are all together Contador will just follow Landa's wheels whilst Kruijswijk attacks. He won't respond to any attack other than Landa. He will attack after Landa brings it back. Those two will wear down Landa and Contador will gift Kruijswijk a stage win.

Why wouldn't Landa just attack at that point instead of towing Contador?
And making Landa attack earlier is a terrible tactic. It's better to let him wheelsuck if he chooses to do so so that the gaps after he attacks are minimal

Landa won't be able to drop Contador. The only reason why he dropped Contador on the other stage was that Contador did 1000% more work than what Landa did. Landa is not stronger than Contador. Far from it.

2 mistakes:
1-It's not the other stage mate. It's one of the other stages.
2- Please don't use "far from it". Based on what we've seen this far in the Giro, you may have any reason/excuse to believe that Landa is not stronger than Conti. But you don't have any evidence to use the words "far from it"

 

[rick james]

would like Landa to get a big gap on Contador, just to make the next 2 stages interesting

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

Rewatched both climbs today. Landa spent more time on the front at Mortirolo than Contador did (pretty much entire time until getting caught while Alberto had couple of riders help him out).
Of course he rode it at bit slower pace, but the way he responded to Contador's attack. Zero stress, consulted with Aru, and then closed 50m gap to attacking Contador in 30 seconds still looking like its completely effortless. And then riding away like that on the false flat after they both basically wheelsucked Kruijswijk. You have to admit it was awfully impressive

Now, it is possible that if Contador just sits on his wheel then he might not be able to drop him, but I wouldn't take that risk if I was Tinkoff-Saxo. Would rather postpone attack as much as possible

Are you kidding me, what do you think Contador was doing for most of the climbing, chasing, and after the catch, Landa just sat on

Just ignore the guy. He clearly only sees what he wants to see

 

[Bushman]

Anyone know how good a descender Landa is? Is the descent very technical? If so it's an opportunity for him to gain some time

I dont know, but on the Mortirolo descent he didn't seem to have any troubles at all. He was right on Contador's wheel, while Kruijswijk were struggling a bit.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Interesting if Konig does something here after his claims regarding his descending. If it's all together at the top of the climb he surely must put his money where his mouth is and have a go on the descent.

 

[Jalgratas95]

Anyone know how good a descender Landa is? Is the descent very technical? If so it's an opportunity for him to gain some time

I dont know, but on the Mortirolo descent he didn't seem to have any troubles at all. He was right on Contador's wheel, while Kruijswijk were struggling a bit.

I'm sure that Contador just didn't want to take any risks on that stage anymore.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

Rewatched both climbs today. Landa spent more time on the front at Mortirolo than Contador did (pretty much entire time until getting caught while Alberto had couple of riders help him out).
Of course he rode it at bit slower pace, but the way he responded to Contador's attack. Zero stress, consulted with Aru, and then closed 50m gap to attacking Contador in 30 seconds still looking like its completely effortless. And then riding away like that on the false flat after they both basically wheelsucked Kruijswijk. You have to admit it was awfully impressive

Now, it is possible that if Contador just sits on his wheel then he might not be able to drop him, but I wouldn't take that risk if I was Tinkoff-Saxo. Would rather postpone attack as much as possible

Are you kidding me, what do you think Contador was doing for most of the climbing, chasing, and after the catch, Landa just sat on

Just ignore the guy. He clearly only sees what he wants to see

As opposed to some Contador fans that interpret everything that happens on the road under the axiom that Bert is by the strongest climber at every moment.