2015 Giro Stage 14: Treviso – Valdobbiadene 59.4 kms ITT

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ILovecycling

ILovecycling

Aug 4, 2010
11,337
0
0
Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Küng DNF? Well then Alberto will win for sure :D

Just kidding, I think:
Cataldo
Zakarin +20
Contador +40
Uran +50
Porte +60
Aru +3 minutes
Landa +4 minutes
but I have no clue :p
Click to expand...
No way Cataldo and Berto will beat Uran, he looked well recovered :)
 
T

The Barb

Apr 14, 2009
1,704
204
10,880
Re: Re:

SlickMongoose said:
Miburo said:
Where's the evidence that Porte is good in long ITT?
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Well he won the 40.9km Australian championship this year. And the competition is pretty solid for that one.
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Exactly. Beating Rohan Dennis and Luke Durbridge is a meaningful flat time trial is no mean feat. At the 2013 Tour he rode a terrific time trial over 33km. Yes, that's very different to 60km, but the fact there are so few time trials at all over that distance that you could level the same "where is the evidence" query at just about everyone.

I am no Porte fan but I expect him to do extremely well.
 
ILovecycling

ILovecycling

Aug 4, 2010
11,337
0
0
Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
ILovecycling said:
LaFlorecita said:
Küng DNF? Well then Alberto will win for sure :D

Just kidding, I think:
Cataldo
Zakarin +20
Contador +40
Uran +50
Porte +60
Aru +3 minutes
Landa +4 minutes
but I have no clue :p
Click to expand...
No way Cataldo and Berto will beat Uran, he looked well recovered :)
Click to expand...
He also did on stage 8.
Click to expand...
hah true :p ,we'll see, I think itt is his speciality
 
Miburo

Miburo

Jul 29, 2012
11,703
4
0
Re: Re:

SlickMongoose said:
Miburo said:
Where's the evidence that Porte is good in long ITT?
Click to expand...

Well he won the 40.9km Australian championship this year. And the competition is pretty solid for that one.
Click to expand...

That was after 2 weeks in a GT?

Of course someone brings up 2013, contador worst year of all time. Let's do some selective memory...
 
T

thehook

Mar 9, 2013
572
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I have to admit. I'm quite puzzled on how anyone could think AC would drop 2/3 mins. Without having a huge issue ion the TT. The guy is in form. Looks like he is getting stronger everyday! He has done good ITT's in GT's before. The flats are about power and aero. I could see many of the GC guys rolling about the same gear. Maybe Uran pushing a Big #. And I fully expect Rigo to hammer this one.

Judging by the last 2 stages. I can see Aru getting shelled here! He is for sure a future Giro winner IMHO. But this Giro has been Hard & Fast from day 1. And he is now riding against IMHO a very Hungry AC. Who will go down as the best GT rider of this generation. Fabio is in the deep end of the pool now. It's not easy caring the weight of being #1.

Porte is hungry here. Yes he is down on time. However he is in form. He also is riding for what will be his next BIG & Probably last BIG contract. So he will have to pick it up here.

Uran had to have put his from to come up here in the ITT. So he needs to come out blazing. He also is riding for what could be his next contract. And also to determine if he is going to be PAID as the #1. Or go back to Dom. And get $ like a Roman K. Which is a perfect role for him IMHO.

Zakarain to me is Froome of 2011. In the Vuelta. Who the heck knows what's running through them Veins. But he can TT. And as of late can Climb. He os way to far on time. But he could hammer this TT. And maybe do something special in the high Mountains. Katusha is playing him smartly. NO PRESSURE. Just ride and learn.

I think AC will drop the following
Porte 25
Uran 45

AC Gain
Aru 1:30

What's kinda funny I think. Is when most of us looked at this Giro. And AC announced the double attempt. I thought he would be putting the race to bed in the 3rd week. AKA ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK. It seems if Aru gets shelled. And AC hold 1-1/30 after this TT. Then juste follows wheels and basically preps for LeTour.
 
Poursuivant

Poursuivant

Jun 7, 2011
4,281
2,840
21,180
Re:

thehook said:
I have to admit. I'm quite puzzled on how anyone could think AC would drop 2/3 mins. Without having a huge issue ion the TT. The guy is in form. Looks like he is getting stronger everyday! He has done good ITT's in GT's before. The flats are about power and aero. I could see many of the GC guys rolling about the same gear. Maybe Uran pushing a Big #. And I fully expect Rigo to hammer this one.

Judging by the last 2 stages. I can see Aru getting shelled here! He is for sure a future Giro winner IMHO. But this Giro has been Hard & Fast from day 1. And he is now riding against IMHO a very Hungry AC. Who will go down as the best GT rider of this generation. Fabio is in the deep end of the pool now. It's not easy caring the weight of being #1.

Porte is hungry here. Yes he is down on time. However he is in form. He also is riding for what will be his next BIG & Probably last BIG contract. So he will have to pick it up here.

Uran had to have put his from to come up here in the ITT. So he needs to come out blazing. He also is riding for what could be his next contract. And also to determine if he is going to be PAID as the #1. Or go back to Dom. And get $ like a Roman K. Which is a perfect role for him IMHO.

Zakarain to me is Froome of 2011. In the Vuelta. Who the heck knows what's running through them Veins. But he can TT. And as of late can Climb. He os way to far on time. But he could hammer this TT. And maybe do something special in the high Mountains. Katusha is playing him smartly. NO PRESSURE. Just ride and learn.

I think AC will drop the following
Porte 25
Uran 45

AC Gain
Aru 1:30

What's kinda funny I think. Is when most of us looked at this Giro. And AC announced the double attempt. I thought he would be putting the race to bed in the 3rd week. AKA ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK. It seems if Aru gets shelled. And AC hold 1-1/30 after this TT. Then juste follows wheels and basically preps for LeTour.
Click to expand...


Personally, I think the GC Battle is over bar the shouting. Contador will still be in pink after the TT, Aru will be well down amd looks like he is weakening, and while Porte and Uran may make up a bit of time (I'm not convinced they will), who honestly sees them dropping AC in the mountains? Would have been more exciting if AC had been docked two minutes!
 
A

Ataraxus

Jul 12, 2013
981
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If Uran repeats his last year's performance it will be easy peasy for him. He gave 2:41 to Sioutsou on a 41km TT course last Giro. A Sioutsou which was probably going (almost) full gas. Sioutsou's form during that Giro is not fully known ok, but I strongly doubt Porte is 4s/km faster than a commited Sioutsou in ITT so he won't be able to beat a top-form Uran IMHO.

Uran gave 1:39 to a GC-fighting Majka last year. Contador is better than Majka in TT but not 2.5s/km better IMHO. So pretty much Uran has to repeat last years performance and the gaps will come by themselves.
He will easily be second in GC after the TT IMHO, and might even take the maglia if Contador doesn't fully deliver for some reason.
 
Sciocco

Sciocco

Jan 24, 2012
1,169
0
0
Uran will win stage and move to 2nd in the GC. Will be closer to Contador time wise and people will start to say he has a chance, but he will fail in the big mountains. Good for him to get a stage win though.

GC after ITT:
1. Contador
2. Uran
3. Cataldo (if he is allowed to put in a full effort)

Assuming the gaps between starts is three minutes, Contador will not catch Aru, but he will see him towards the end. So Aru will finish 2:45-2:55 down on Contador.
 
A

Ataraxus

Jul 12, 2013
981
0
0
Re:

thehook said:
I have to admit. I'm quite puzzled on how anyone could think AC would drop 2/3 mins. Without having a huge issue ion the TT. The guy is in form. Looks like he is getting stronger everyday! He has done good ITT's in GT's before. The flats are about power and aero. I could see many of the GC guys rolling about the same gear. Maybe Uran pushing a Big #. And I fully expect Rigo to hammer this one.

Judging by the last 2 stages. I can see Aru getting shelled here! He is for sure a future Giro winner IMHO. But this Giro has been Hard & Fast from day 1. And he is now riding against IMHO a very Hungry AC. Who will go down as the best GT rider of this generation. Fabio is in the deep end of the pool now. It's not easy caring the weight of being #1.

Porte is hungry here. Yes he is down on time. However he is in form. He also is riding for what will be his next BIG & Probably last BIG contract. So he will have to pick it up here.

Uran had to have put his from to come up here in the ITT. So he needs to come out blazing. He also is riding for what could be his next contract. And also to determine if he is going to be PAID as the #1. Or go back to Dom. And get $ like a Roman K. Which is a perfect role for him IMHO.

Zakarain to me is Froome of 2011. In the Vuelta. Who the heck knows what's running through them Veins. But he can TT. And as of late can Climb. He os way to far on time. But he could hammer this TT. And maybe do something special in the high Mountains. Katusha is playing him smartly. NO PRESSURE. Just ride and learn.

I think AC will drop the following
Porte 25
Uran 45

AC Gain
Aru 1:30

What's kinda funny I think. Is when most of us looked at this Giro. And AC announced the double attempt. I thought he would be putting the race to bed in the 3rd week. AKA ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK. It seems if Aru gets shelled. And AC hold 1-1/30 after this TT. Then juste follows wheels and basically preps for LeTour.
Click to expand...

So you think Aru might lose 2:15 to Uran? Last year he lost 2:55 and the course was 2/3 in length and had more climbing than the one on Saturday.
 
J

Jancouver

Mar 14, 2009
3,436
0
0
Kung out with broken with a compression fracture of his T9 vertebrae after crashing inside the final 25km of the race. Two riders from the CCC Sprandi Polkowice team fell in front of Küng on the slippery second last descent of the day, and the Swiss rider was unable to avoid falling himself

... expected time of recovery from a fractured vertebrae is 12 to 16 weeks.
 
T

thehook

Mar 9, 2013
572
0
0
Re: Re:

Ataraxus said:
thehook said:
I have to admit. I'm quite puzzled on how anyone could think AC would drop 2/3 mins. Without having a huge issue ion the TT. The guy is in form. Looks like he is getting stronger everyday! He has done good ITT's in GT's before. The flats are about power and aero. I could see many of the GC guys rolling about the same gear. Maybe Uran pushing a Big #. And I fully expect Rigo to hammer this one.

Judging by the last 2 stages. I can see Aru getting shelled here! He is for sure a future Giro winner IMHO. But this Giro has been Hard & Fast from day 1. And he is now riding against IMHO a very Hungry AC. Who will go down as the best GT rider of this generation. Fabio is in the deep end of the pool now. It's not easy caring the weight of being #1.

Porte is hungry here. Yes he is down on time. However he is in form. He also is riding for what will be his next BIG & Probably last BIG contract. So he will have to pick it up here.

And Thanks again for reminding me of last years TT. I like chating with great fans of the sport!

Cheers

Uran had to have put his from to come up here in the ITT. So he needs to come out blazing. He also is riding for what could be his next contract. And also to determine if he is going to be PAID as the #1. Or go back to Dom. And get $ like a Roman K. Which is a perfect role for him IMHO.

Zakarain to me is Froome of 2011. In the Vuelta. Who the heck knows what's running through them Veins. But he can TT. And as of late can Climb. He os way to far on time. But he could hammer this TT. And maybe do something special in the high Mountains. Katusha is playing him smartly. NO PRESSURE. Just ride and learn.

I think AC will drop the following
Porte 25
Uran 45

AC Gain
Aru 1:30

What's kinda funny I think. Is when most of us looked at this Giro. And AC announced the double attempt. I thought he would be putting the race to bed in the 3rd week. AKA ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK. It seems if Aru gets shelled. And AC hold 1-1/30 after this TT. Then juste follows wheels and basically preps for LeTour.
Click to expand...

So you think Aru might lose 2:15 to Uran? Last year he lost 2:55 and the course was 2/3 in length and had more climbing than the one on Saturday.
Click to expand...

Last years performance is a good indicator. And thanks for reminding me of that. I'm just going by what I see from both of them so far in this Giro. Uran hitting the deck in Imola. And Aru I think might be a better TT rider this season then last. I know he was in Specialized wind tunnel. But you may be correct. If Aru blows? Uran could be looking at a really good shot at the podium. IF Uran lights it up in the TT.
 
T

TheGreenMonkey

Sep 7, 2014
1,134
0
10,480
Re:

Jancouver said:
Kung out with broken with a compression fracture of his T9 vertebrae after crashing inside the final 25km of the race. Two riders from the CCC Sprandi Polkowice team fell in front of Küng on the slippery second last descent of the day, and the Swiss rider was unable to avoid falling himself

... expected time of recovery from a fractured vertebrae is 12 to 16 weeks.
Click to expand...

That is bad, and he got up and rode some more with that injury. Crazy.
 
S

Sasquatch

Sep 16, 2009
3,164
4
13,485
LaFlorecita said:
Sasquatch said:
Boaro
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Hmm Boaro is more of a specialist in short TTs though, however he is looking really strong this year so nothing would surprise me :p
Click to expand...

That's true, but the form he has been in this year could mean something. 2 years ago

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Giro_dItalia_2013_Stage_8_Saltara-profiles

Dowsett
Wiggins +10
Kangert +14
Nibali +21
Clement +32
Durbridge +35
Evans +39
Boaro +45
Henao +53
Scarponi +53
Gesink +1.22
Uran +1.48
Gretsch +1.48
Kelderman +1.57
Sergent +2.00
Niemiec +2.13
Oliveira +2.17
Hesjedal +2.23
Garate +2.28
Pozzovivo +2.34

The climbing is a bit tougher this year but I give him the edge due to how well he has been racing. I think Boaro could top 3 it if he can't win, but he certainly shouldn't be written off.

The way Astana is going at the minute it wouldn't be a surprise to see one of them win the stage. I would expect that Landa and Cataldo will go full gas but won't challenge for the win. Kangert or Lulu could win if allowed to go full gas. It wouldn't surprise me if all 4 get the green light.
 
H

HiroAntagonist

May 8, 2015
128
0
8,830
Re: Re:

TheGreenMonkey said:
Jancouver said:
Kung out with broken with a compression fracture of his T9 vertebrae after crashing inside the final 25km of the race. Two riders from the CCC Sprandi Polkowice team fell in front of Küng on the slippery second last descent of the day, and the Swiss rider was unable to avoid falling himself

... expected time of recovery from a fractured vertebrae is 12 to 16 weeks.
Click to expand...

That is bad, and he got up and rode some more with that injury. Crazy.
Click to expand...

Hardcore..!
 
Taxus4a

Taxus4a

Aug 12, 2012
6,996
1,011
20,680
Re: Stage 14: Treviso – Valdobbiadene 59.4 kms ITT

Red Rick said:
Contador may have lost minutes if this was the first week of the freaking Dauphine. It isn't. It's two weeks into a tough, hard-raced Giro d'Italia and he's improving every step of the way compared to his opponents. There's no great flat tt'ers there, he'll very likely top 5
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Are you sure?

This is at the end of Tour de France: (35 position, 5: 43)

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/tour-de-france-2010/stage-19/results

The wind changed, but when he won in Annecy, just 40 Km, changed to his favour.

Why dont have any similar reference after his comeback. The best is last year Vuelta ITT, but it was shorter. Alberto did well, but no super.
 
Taxus4a

Taxus4a

Aug 12, 2012
6,996
1,011
20,680
Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Taxus, that is 1 (one) ITT. In every other 40+km TT he raced since the 2007 TDF, he finished top 10. So stop making a fool of yourself.
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Of course he did top ten, but not win as he used to do with shorter or hilly ITT. it is a big difference tomorrow if he do 8th or 1st, but it is not the possition, but the time he gain or lose.

Porte I think is not so good in long ITT, but as well there arent a lot of references, and Uran has pain in his back for the crash, so it will be difficult for him.

I wouldnt be surprised if Contador tomorrow is not in the first 5 names of the ITT, although here there are not so many big names.

And it is not the same 41 that 59 Km.
 
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