Panda Claws said:
Well you have confirmed why he made a game loosing mistake at that moment, as I have said. He lost the right position from the moment he was dangling off the front in that instant.
Bike racing is a series of good or bad choices, the later in the game the bad choices are made the greater the consequences in terms of failure. He still might not have won had he been covered instead of taking wind in that moment, but he would have had a hell of a lot better chance of not loosing the right wheel in the decisive moment had he not been. This has been my point and anybody that thinks otherwise I don't agree with.
No he did not. He got to Degenkolb's wheel which was a great wheel to have by falling back after riding at the front. If he had not ridden at the front there is no guarantee he would have even been able to get that wheel, or could have hold on to it longer.
The mistake of riding at the front holds no correlation with the mistake of losing Degenkolb's wheel.
No there is a correlation, because Degenkolb was not off the front at the wrong moment and his was not the wheel to be on, but possibly Kristoff's. In fact Degenkolb was best positioned, because he remained covered throughout. He didn't have to fall back and regain position/momentum/composure, etc., which are the very things Sagan had to do that in the end led him astray. Sagan had too much to re-do to find the right position, and this favored Degenkolb. Of course others were not ideally positioned either, but only Sagan was dangling off the front and had to readjust in a critical moment and only Sagan probably had the top speed to win (I'm thinking of the Italian 21 year-old youngster who was on Kristoff's wheel but than faded in the end). This means that his sprint could have reaped a better result, I believe, had he played it cooler. The only way I have seen a cyclist re-adjust like that and still win the sprint, was when he was far superior to his rivals. Though that was not the case with Sagan and it is even less likely in a sprint finish at MSR, which is not a normal sprint.
Look I'm not saying Sagan would have won even if he had not made the mistake he undoubtedly did, however, having made it, the rest followed its logical sequence. But if he decided not to attack over the Poggio and down its descent, this means he must have decided that a larger group finish was acceptable to his sprinting capacity, or that trying to arrive in a more select group was either not possible or too risky. Well then if he accepted the former option, then he didn't base his end tactic exclusively with that in mind. I take this as why he allowed himself to be in the wind in the drawing conclusion of the race, as if he still harbored some doubt about the possibility of getting away, when by that time the only thing he should have been doing was staying under cover and focusing on finding the best position for the sprint. The reshuffling that some have found to be rather insignificant, was, in my view, in fact crucial to loosing the wheel, or in any case not getting into the best position.
Modern cycling, and all the teams are saying this, is about trying to make all the little details work in your favor. And one small, however seemingly insignificant, error can be fatal.
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