2015 Tour de France Route

[phanatic]

Course looks good for Sagan to get green, even if he has to work for Bertie.
Will the TTT decide the winner? That stage looks like it is going to be intense.

 

[qwer]

Re:

Valverde will lose too much in the ITT. Not to mention that he obviously will lose ~5 minutes on stage 2.

quintana will lose more time than valverde

 

[qwer]

Re: Re:

Valverde winning the uphill sprints and wearing the maillot jaune will be one of the highlights of the Tour. Can't wait.

He will not win on Mur de Bretagne. And he will get a lot of competition on the Mur.

And he will lose too much time on the TT anyway, like Netserk said.

The mur de bretagne is made for piti.

no way, is made for sagan

 

[Brullnux]

Indeed, remember Valverde in yellow after winning in Plumelec in 2008? That's what we're looking at. Hell, if he doesn't completely bonk or crash on some early stage (cobbles for one) or lose time in the Prologue I can see him holding it from Huy until Beille or so with a shout towards getting it back with a Mende finish.

I actually see him as a serious contender as things stand. What are the time bonus rules like for this year?

Although cobbles are easier than last year, he will still lose time to Cancellara and Sagan, who will challenge for the yellow until the TTT, where I think Sky, Astana and others will be stronger than Movistar. Having said that, they could do better than I think they will and that won't surprise me. Even with Huy, Sagan at his best will only lose maximum 20 seconds. The time bonuses will be 10 seconds, then 6, then 4. He will have yellow after the Huy stage, but lose it again and maybe not get it back.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Valverde winning the uphill sprints and wearing the maillot jaune will be one of the highlights of the Tour. Can't wait.

He will not win on Mur de Bretagne. And he will get a lot of competition on the Mur.

And he will lose too much time on the TT anyway, like Netserk said.

The mur de bretagne is made for piti.

no way, is made for sagan

Unless he has improved significally, it's really not. It's way harder than Cauberg. 10%+ for over 1k. The GC guys will test each other on the steep parts. Dan Martin, Kwaitkowski and Valverde are huge favorites.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Valverde will lose too much in the ITT. Not to mention that he obviously will lose ~5 minutes on stage 2.

No, he will not. Might be in yellow after Mur de Huy, a lot depends on Kwiatkowski's climbing form

 

[Rollthedice]

I can't see how this will be avoidable at some point in the first week or so.

 

[Netserk]

We all know that if Valverde wins on Huy, it'll be with a sprint. Unless you think he can top-10 the ITT, he won't have a chance to take yellow ahead of Kwiatkowski, Dumoulin, Froome and Contador. On the cobbles he will lose far too much time to take it in the first week.

 

[Mr.White]

You are aware that Kwiatkowski lost 38 sec to Valverde on Mur de Huy this year?

 

[Netserk]

So? Do you want to make a bet about who of Valverde and Kwiatkowski will be best in GC after the Huy stage?

 

[Mr.White]

Sure, why not

 

[Netserk]

Rest of the Tour as duration?

 

[Mr.White]

Agree

 

[Gigs_98]

If there is much crosswind in the first week, the tour could even be interesting because guys like quintana might loose the time they normally lose in ITT´s

 

[MatParker117]

Re:

I can't see how this will be avoidable at some point in the first week or so.

Purito? Kwiat? Martin? Gerrans?

 

[SeriousSam]

Past it. Nowhere at FW and Liege, luckboxed Amstel. Maybe. Will crash out.

 

[The Hitch]

Since I believe some of the best gt riders can be great hilly specialists I really wouldn't rule out Conta, Froome, Quintana and Nibali (who isn't as good a gc rider but has a better classics record) from beating all those guys on the hills.

Contador afterall came 2 milimeteres away from winning a hilly stage in 2011 Tour, beaten by Evans , 2nd to Murito on Ezaro in 2012 and already has a 3rd on Huy (behind, the two above riders). None of those was a particularly special version of Contador.

Ordizia isn't that much longer either

 

[Tonton]

Piti's objective will be to be ahead of Nairo, then stick to his wheel in the first mountain stages, and hope that nationalist politics will make him the leader, or at least the co-leader for Movistar. I don't trust him one bit to be a team player (except in my fantasy team of course ). The route suits him. He'll be a factor for the overall, unless Movistar loses a big chunk on the TTT. That stage will be huge. For everybody. And once again Nibbles is being overlooked. He's preparing, he'll be fresh, and Astana looks very strong. I'll be happy if Pinot enters the top-5. It's going to be difficult for him or Bardet.

 

[rm7]

Piti's objective will be to be ahead of Nairo, then stick to his wheel in the first mountain stages, and hope that nationalist politics will make him the leader, or at least the co-leader for Movistar. I don't trust him one bit to be a team player (except in my fantasy team of course ). The route suits him. He'll be a factor for the overall, unless Movistar loses a big chunk on the TTT. That stage will be huge. For everybody. And once again Nibbles is being overlooked. He's preparing, he'll be fresh, and Astana looks very strong. I'll be happy if Pinot enters the top-5. It's going to be difficult for him or Bardet.

I dont want to turn it into a clinic debate, but Valverde is just never that good in the Tour. I think the strongest was maybe in 2005 when he won that stage against Armstrong and Rasmussen, but he crashed out.

I dont think Valverde will act as a dom for Quintana until he for sure knows that Quintana is stronger. And even when they hit the first mountains, Valverde could very well be 1 or 2 minutes up on Quintana (TT, Cobbles, crosswinds, Huy).

 

[Tonton]

Piti's objective will be to be ahead of Nairo, then stick to his wheel in the first mountain stages, and hope that nationalist politics will make him the leader, or at least the co-leader for Movistar. I don't trust him one bit to be a team player (except in my fantasy team of course ). The route suits him. He'll be a factor for the overall, unless Movistar loses a big chunk on the TTT. That stage will be huge. For everybody. And once again Nibbles is being overlooked. He's preparing, he'll be fresh, and Astana looks very strong. I'll be happy if Pinot enters the top-5. It's going to be difficult for him or Bardet.

I dont want to turn it into a clinic debate, but Valverde is just never that good in the Tour. I think the strongest was maybe in 2005 when he won that stage against Armstrong and Rasmussen, but he crashed out.

I dont think Valverde will act as a dom for Quintana until he for sure knows that Quintana is stronger. And even when they hit the first mountains, Valverde could very well be 1 or 2 minutes up on Quintana (TT, Cobbles, crosswinds, Huy).

I agree with your second paragraph. And it's a problem for Quintana: with friends like these...

With regards to your opening statement, I disagree: it may be his last shot to do something great at the TdF, the course suits him, will he fade away week 3? Possibly. But rest assured that he licked his chops when the route was unveiled.

 

[BigMac]

Valverde was quite good in the 2013 Tour, and he would have probably finished second had he not had the mechanical on the stage with crosswinds to Saint-Amand-Monrond.

 

[SeriousSam]

Valverde will be co-leader and free to try and win hilly stages. Definitely not at the Tour to do some donkey work for Quintana, nor should he.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Valverde will be co-leader and free to try and win hilly stages. Definitely not at the Tour to do some donkey work for Quintana, nor should he.

And that will be Nairo's undoing. I feel sorry for Quintana: that's not what he signed for. He'll be looking over his shoulder. Piti will get time on him week one, probably between one and two minutes. And then pretend to be too tired to take relays (sounds familiar), suck wheels, maybe outkick Quintana and others in the final 200 meters. Too bad he's unlikely to do "some donkey work"...

 

[Miburo]

Re:

We all know that if Valverde wins on Huy, it'll be with a sprint. Unless you think he can top-10 the ITT, he won't have a chance to take yellow ahead of Kwiatkowski, Dumoulin, Froome and Contador. On the cobbles he will lose far too much time to take it in the first week.

Piti can be really solid in a short ITT. Don't think he'll give up more than 10-15 sec on the othr guys who have a chance on huy.

 

[Netserk]

Like when he didn't break the top-100 in the last Tour prologue he did?