2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Martin

[infeXio]

Re:

Does anyone have a link to how the king of the mountains points are awarded this year?

 

[Vasilis]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I also think it sucks, but you have to consider that the route almost actually was designed to make Froome loose time before this stage. People just have to give him credit for being in front at this stage where a lot of people thought he would either DNF or be minutes behind.

I just hope that Contador will let go if he can't follow, rather than try to follow everytime and blow up. I'm quite sure he can't follow Froome and Quintana at this point, but he should be able to limit his losses, that's his only real weakness.

I think Froome will try to go with 7-8k to go, because he'll fear that Contador will get better, and they will maybe attack him the day after on the ascent of Tourmalet.

I don't think Froome's train will be burnt by that time yet, so I don't think he will attack there either. I'm sure he'll want to win the stage though, having one in the bag does take the pressure off a bit. If he doesn't win, he'll surely feel he still has to win a stage, the GC without a stage doesn't feel right I guess.

 

[Frosty]

Re: Re:

Does anyone have a link to how the king of the mountains points are awarded this year?

Thanks a lot, so 50 points for the winner on Tuesday and 40 points for second place, so the stage winner will take the mountains jersey, at least for one day.

 

[cantpedal]

Re:

Let's start ' a what if ' game.what if the OTHER 3 will attack right from the bottom of the climb? one by one.

won't work with Froome. We've seen it before he'll let them go and then drag them back at his own pace.

 

[Vasilis]

BTW, did I understand correctly that from now on, there are no more bonification seconds?

 

[cantpedal]

Are time bonuses still being given or not? I've seen articles claiming both.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I have a bad feeling that Froomey will destroy this stage AX 3 style, and make the rest of the tour boooring

 

[Publicus]

Re:

Are time bonuses still being given or not? I've seen articles claiming both.

Only stages 2 through 8, according to the website.

EDIT: It looks like the rules say something different:

Des bonifications sont attribuées dans toutes les
arrivées des étapes en ligne, donc à l’exception
des étapes contre la montre « individuel » et
« par équipe ». Elles sont de 10, 6 et 4 secondes
aux trois premiers coureurs classés.

 

[Netserk]

Bonus seconds on all mass-start stages.

 

[The Hitch]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I don't know if Froome goes all out, as its the first of 3. Will be interesting to see. I hope he does.

I think the danger for Froome this year is that he has 3 hyped opponents vs 1 in 2013. The more he cements himself as the absolute leader the more the others are liable to work together. If he just destroys everyone here, that could make the next 2 stages difficult. Might be best to do that full attack on Thursday meaning the others would have to wait almost a week before getting another mountain to work together on.

On the other hand, not all 3 will be in form. Might just be worth crushing everyone here just to intimidate them into submission and a podium fight.

Having said that, I wouldn't say its a cast iron guarantee yet that Froome will be the strongest mountain rider. Sure looked good in the tt but we haven'thad a real mountain yet. Dauphine last year after 2 stages no one would have expected him to not even be one of the 10 strongest riders on the last stage.

I just hope its not some boring breakaway win with 40 guys in the peloton cruising in together at the end.

 

[orangerider]

Froome will take it by quite a big gap. He already has yellow so the team needs to expend energy by default, there's no reason for Froome to save himself for later. Needs more buffer time in the event of a future crash/mechanical. Froome is a given - what's going to be interesting is to see if Contador cracks or not, as this is the stage that will dictate whether the Giro was a mistake or not.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm not sure which one they'll do, but probably the first one.

Froome to go full genius, Contador will try to follow, he'll either hang on and do what he did in the Vuelta, or crack and lose a minute at least

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I like the break's chances. Bastille Day, so there's likely to be a strong delegation of super-motivated Frenchmen. And for much of the 140 km of flat leading to the climb, only Stannard and Rowe to keep them in check. Of course, Roche and Kennaugh will wind it up before we get there, and G, Porte, Konig and Poels will set an infernal pace from the bottom, but they'll likely have a significant enough advantage. Surely Adam or Simon will look to infiltrate.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I like the break's chances. Bastille Day, so there's likely to be a strong delegation of super-motivated Frenchmen. And for much of the 140 km of flat leading to the climb, only Stannard and Rowe to keep them in check. Of course, Roche and Kennaugh will wind it up before we get there, and G, Porte, Konig and Poels will set an infernal pace from the bottom, but they'll likely have a significant enough advantage. Surely Adam or Simon will look to infiltrate.

Yep, as long as the right teams get in the break I can't see why Stannard or Rowe would be made to push themselves keeping it particularly in check, and no one else should feel the need get on the front before the last 30ks

 

[sir fly]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I like the break's chances. Bastille Day, so there's likely to be a strong delegation of super-motivated Frenchmen. And for much of the 140 km of flat leading to the climb, only Stannard and Rowe to keep them in check. Of course, Roche and Kennaugh will wind it up before we get there, and G, Porte, Konig and Poels will set an infernal pace from the bottom, but they'll likely have a significant enough advantage. Surely Adam or Simon will look to infiltrate.

I can't see a breakaway succeeding. They're going to spend themselves too much before the ascent.
French GC hopes should have a better chance of the stage victory, since they're all well behind in the classification so the big four + TJ won't mark them strictly.

 

[King Boonen]

Barguil to shine...

 

[bajbar]

Sky controlling the whole stage, train up the mountain. Thomas the last man before Froome. Nibali will drop first (of the big 5). Contador will try to hang on, but crack when Froome goes 5k to the finish. He will distance everybody. Quintana will manage to claw him back. They will sprint for victory. Van Garderen will pace himself at around 30 sec. Everyone else will lose more than a minute, Nibali two minutes.

That is my worst nightmare... Doesn't seem far from reality unfortunately. We can only pray...

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I like the break's chances. Bastille Day, so there's likely to be a strong delegation of super-motivated Frenchmen. And for much of the 140 km of flat leading to the climb, only Stannard and Rowe to keep them in check. Of course, Roche and Kennaugh will wind it up before we get there, and G, Porte, Konig and Poels will set an infernal pace from the bottom, but they'll likely have a significant enough advantage. Surely Adam or Simon will look to infiltrate.

I can't see a breakaway succeeding. They're going to spend themselves too much before the ascent.
French GC hopes should have a better chance of the stage victory, since they're all well behind in the classification so the big four + TJ won't mark them strictly.

Who, from the French GC hopes, is going to attack and stay away from the Sky train, left with all it's climbing resources intact at the bottom of the last climb?

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Sky controlling the whole stage, train up the mountain. Thomas the last man before Froome. Nibali will drop first (of the big 5). Contador will try to hang on, but crack when Froome goes 5k to the finish. He will distance everybody. Quintana will manage to claw him back. They will sprint for victory. Van Garderen will pace himself at around 30 sec. Everyone else will lose more than a minute, Nibali two minutes.

That is my worst nightmare... Doesn't seem far from reality unfortunately. We can only pray...

Any train will be derailled as soon as they hit a full km at 9%, and there are 5 like that.

 

[Punter]

Anyone think Arredondo may be in with a shout? He did pretty well in the 2 short steep finishes to date and is far enough back to perhaps get in the early break or get some freedom to attack the big boys before they start hammering each other on the climb. I haven't seen enough of him to know how good he is - chance?

 

[sir fly]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I like the break's chances. Bastille Day, so there's likely to be a strong delegation of super-motivated Frenchmen. And for much of the 140 km of flat leading to the climb, only Stannard and Rowe to keep them in check. Of course, Roche and Kennaugh will wind it up before we get there, and G, Porte, Konig and Poels will set an infernal pace from the bottom, but they'll likely have a significant enough advantage. Surely Adam or Simon will look to infiltrate.

I can't see a breakaway succeeding. They're going to spend themselves too much before the ascent.
French GC hopes should have a better chance of the stage victory, since they're all well behind in the classification so the big four + TJ won't mark them strictly.

Who, from the French GC hopes, is going to attack and stay away from the Sky train, left with all it's climbing resources intact at the bottom of the last climb?

Pinot should be an option. Rolland comes to my mind too.
Bardet and Peraud will be wore down, as you're suggesting.

 

[Pantani Attacks]

Wilco Kelderman will emerge and drop everyone on the climb

 

[Ruby United]

Tejay to continue to upset the big 4

Nibali to lose the most time

Froome
Quintana "

Tejay
Contador

Nibali

 

[Frosty]

Depends how big the break is and how quickly it forms. I have wondered before how much energy you lose being in a break of 20 compared to being in the peloton. Saying you only spend 5% of the time on the front is too simplistic but then you do get other advantages of not having to fight for position as much. Therefore if you are a good climber, get in a big break and start the climb with 4-5 minutes then you may stay away.

If the break forms quickly then they stand a decent chance as there is a lot of kms to pull out a lead, if it is one of those stages where it takes 50-60km for a break to successfully get away then there wouldn't be enough kms for them to build a big enough lead before Sky start ramping up the pace of the peloton.

After all the activity of the first week there are quite a few people who have already lost a lot of time. People like Rolland (especially on Bastille Day) may well be allowed to get into the break. Maybe even Dan Martin might make it in there given his time loss and lack of a realistic top GC challenge. Hesjedal? Zubeldia has lost 27 minutes so far, maybe he could sneak out of the shadows and get into the break?

 

[Tonton]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

On Bastille Day, a French rider that I won't name and therefore not jinx will win.