2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Martin

[Escarabajo]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

On Bastille Day, a French rider that I won't name and therefore not jinx will win.

I know you love Pinot!!!

 

[Squirbos_19]

If the skytrain gets going then Froome will win, the other GC guys have to prevent this from happening. Not sure how they'll do this, but the only way to beat Froome is to isolate him.

Then again it's very likely everyone will hop on for a free ride then get dropped when Froome attacks.

 

[Billie]

Re:

Anyone think Arredondo may be in with a shout? He did pretty well in the 2 short steep finishes to date and is far enough back to perhaps get in the early break or get some freedom to attack the big boys before they start hammering each other on the climb. I haven't seen enough of him to know how good he is - chance?

I think he'll stay calm Tuesday to go on the attack on the next days where there are much more KoM points on offer

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I don't know if Froome goes all out, as its the first of 3. Will be interesting to see. I hope he does.

I think the danger for Froome this year is that he has 3 hyped opponents vs 1 in 2013. The more he cements himself as the absolute leader the more the others are liable to work together. If he just destroys everyone here, that could make the next 2 stages difficult. Might be best to do that full attack on Thursday meaning the others would have to wait almost a week before getting another mountain to work together on.

On the other hand, not all 3 will be in form. Might just be worth crushing everyone here just to intimidate them into submission and a podium fight.

You might be right. Talk is cheap, and I still doubt Froome can resist hammering it at the first MTF, but he's said this:

I think this next phase of the race, obviously tomorrow we’ll sit down and discuss what we’re going to do thing going forward, but the pressure is certainly not on my shoulders to be making the race and to be trying to take time back from anyone at this stage it is for the other riders to try and get the jersey from me and for us to be potentially riding a more defensive race.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

I could see a break away working here. Froome will only be concerned with blowing the other GC contenders away, so no one will chase. Why should they? It'll come down to who exactly is in the break. If there is a legit (non-GC) climber in there, it's possible for sure.

As for how the climb plays out for the GC folks....

Froome - (like everyone else thinks) will go for it on the steepest part, I'd be shocked if he doesn't. If he put's in a big effort, drops everyone and put's 30+ secs into everyone, the race is pretty much done IMO. I really hope it doesn't play out like this.

Contador - if he loses time to Froome on this stage, he's going to need a miracle. I don't think he will attack until he's sure he's the strongest.

Quintana - I really don't know what to expect. Probably comes down to how he's feeling. There are only so many stages where he can make this time back, he's got to try when he has a chance. I expect him to be ready for the Froome explosion and that is going to be the moment of truth for this tour.

Nibs - I think he's done at this point. If he some how makes something of this stage....well, it would be surprising, let's just say that.

Teejay - Probably just tries to hang on to Froome's wheel the entire way up the climb. If he's close at the end, he'll be delighted, I'm sure. I think he'll just want to see where he stacks up on this first big one.

 

[IamIronMan]

I am really hoping Nibali goes nuts and attacks from the start. He's pretty much out of it now, so there is no reason to just sit on the back of the Sky Train. He's only 2;22 back, but he has every other major contender in front of him. No way all those guys crack, so he's pretty much out of it. I have been pleased with this year's route, as there are some decent time gaps already, which will force certain riders' hands. Nibali is just the guy to do it too. Just attack early, even if he ends up blowing up, maybe he can do damage to Froome in the process. If everyone just sits on and lets Sky do their 2012 snoozefest, this race is already over. The only chance is to throw a wrench into the works by going unconventional. Hey, maybe Valverde can go up the road with him, since Movistar has the best 1-2 punch of the big teams. Movistar, or Nibali have to do something unusual if they want to confuse Sky and hope to break up the race. That's what I'm hoping for. He did it in the TdS, so he knows how to do it, and we know he can do it!

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I hope that quintana will "surprise" everyone and crush froome. I know that froome was impressive in the first week but to be honest, quintana was impressive too. Besides stage 2 he was pretty strong on the mur's, he didnt loose any time on the cobbles although he was almost isolated and in the ITT he was also very near to the other big 4 (although that maybe was due to less wind). However quintanas only real strength is his climbing ability so who knows if froome will really dominate the pyrenees. (And quintana doesn't even have to fear that sky will stop controlling the stages if he is stronger than dawg )

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

I am really hoping Nibali goes nuts and attacks from the start. He's pretty much out of it now, so there is no reason to just sit on the back of the Sky Train. He's only 2;22 back, but he has every other major contender in front of him. No way all those guys crack, so he's pretty much out of it. I have been pleased with this year's route, as there are some decent time gaps already, which will force certain riders' hands. Nibali is just the guy to do it too. Just attack early, even if he ends up blowing up, maybe he can do damage to Froome in the process. If everyone just sits on and lets Sky do their 2012 snoozefest, this race is already over. The only chance is to throw a wrench into the works by going unconventional. Hey, maybe Valverde can go up the road with him, since Movistar has the best 1-2 punch of the big teams. Movistar, or Nibali have to do something unusual if they want to confuse Sky and hope to break up the race. That's what I'm hoping for!

nibali has to try something big, but certainly not on tuesday. What if it comes out that nibali is actually as good as froome in the mountains? Remember 2013? Quintana did the same on the first mountain stage because valverde was the leader of the team. Quintana wouldn't have lost as much time on the first mtf if he just had tried to follow froome instead of attacking him. Thats not the most spectacular way of racing, but if froome has no weakness in the pyrenees they still have 4 alp stages and I think froome will be a lot worse there.

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

I am really hoping Nibali goes nuts and attacks from the start. He's pretty much out of it now, so there is no reason to just sit on the back of the Sky Train. He's only 2;22 back, but he has every other major contender in front of him. No way all those guys crack, so he's pretty much out of it. I have been pleased with this year's route, as there are some decent time gaps already, which will force certain riders' hands. Nibali is just the guy to do it too. Just attack early, even if he ends up blowing up, maybe he can do damage to Froome in the process. If everyone just sits on and lets Sky do their 2012 snoozefest, this race is already over. The only chance is to throw a wrench into the works by going unconventional. Hey, maybe Valverde can go up the road with him, since Movistar has the best 1-2 punch of the big teams. Movistar, or Nibali have to do something unusual if they want to confuse Sky and hope to break up the race. That's what I'm hoping for. He did it in the TdS, so he knows how to do it, and we know he can do it!

Nibali would be insane to attack on a stage like this. He needs to go on a multi-climb day with a horrible descent in there somewhere.

 

[IamIronMan]

You're probably right, in that it's the very first MTF and they probably want to size each other up. However, Froome pretty much wrapped up the 2013 TdF on the first MTF, so if they all wait around, Froome will crush them all. He does what he think will work, and after the first MTF in 2013, he got a huge gap on everyone else. So he'll likely try the same tactic this year.

 

[Pantani Attacks]

An early attack by a GC guy would be great as it'd throw a big spanner in the works and Sky would most likely panic big time. There's a slim but decent chance they'll be able to beat Froome in the mountains but why wait then, why wait and feed into his comfort zone...have to get him ragged before the climbs even arrive. As said on another thread, Nibali and Contador are the smartest guys in the peloton. An alliance is highly unlikely, especially after the Giro, but they'd be the two guys who could destroy Froome on one stage and even end his GC chances. Chances of an alliance happening though are about 1%

 

[Metabolol]

Froome
Quintana +25
Van Garderen + 40
Pinot + 48
Nibali + 59
Contador + 1.05

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

Froome
Quintana +15
TJ +AC +30
Barguil +45
Nibali +55

 

[hfer07]

Quintana to unleash his wrath



the rest will be a minute behind

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Funny how everyone seems to think they will finish 1 by one..

This isn't cycling manager people. Good chance there will be small groups. Like
1 Froome 2 Quintana 3 Van Garderen all same time and then 4. Contador +14 seconds

or something

 

[Miburo]

Why do you think van garderen can keep up with quintana and froome? i don't get it, based on what?

 

[gerundium]

wishful thinking:

1. Contador
2. Froome s.t.
3 / 4 / 5: Quintana, Nibali, TJ + 15 sec.

 

[Frosty]

I think the following two stages are more conducive to the forming of a cunning plan, such as isolating Froome and then attacking on a downhill to catch up with some guys from the break, etc. Tuesday might just see the other teams allow most of their team mates to have a relatively easy day

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Why do you think van garderen can keep up with quintana and froome? i don't get it, based on what?

o my god... i just meant this as an example of a group finishing together.. hence the 'like'.

 

[qwer]

tejay atm is the most overrated guy on the peloton. he won't make top 5 in this tour, trust me.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

I think the following two stages are more conducive to the forming of a cunning plan, such as isolating Froome and then attacking on a downhill to catch up with some guys from the break, etc. Tuesday might just see the other teams allow most of their team mates to have a relatively easy day

Yea indeed, tuesday should be easy for the teams. From wednesday on it's a different ballgame but if froome crushed them tuesday...

If it happens i hope their spirits won't be crushed

 

[Poursuivant]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I don't know if Froome goes all out, as its the first of 3. Will be interesting to see. I hope he does.

I think the danger for Froome this year is that he has 3 hyped opponents vs 1 in 2013. The more he cements himself as the absolute leader the more the others are liable to work together. If he just destroys everyone here, that could make the next 2 stages difficult. Might be best to do that full attack on Thursday meaning the others would have to wait almost a week before getting another mountain to work together on.

On the other hand, not all 3 will be in form. Might just be worth crushing everyone here just to intimidate them into submission and a podium fight.

You might be right. Talk is cheap, and I still doubt Froome can resist hammering it at the first MTF, but he's said this:

I think this next phase of the race, obviously tomorrow we’ll sit down and discuss what we’re going to do thing going forward, but the pressure is certainly not on my shoulders to be making the race and to be trying to take time back from anyone at this stage it is for the other riders to try and get the jersey from me and for us to be potentially riding a more defensive race.

Hmm, maybe Sky won't chase a break then. Perhaps Sky will only lift the tempo on the approach to the climb and the break will be too far ahead then?

 

[Eclipse]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

You might be right. Talk is cheap, and I still doubt Froome can resist hammering it at the first MTF, but he's said this:

I think this next phase of the race, obviously tomorrow we’ll sit down and discuss what we’re going to do thing going forward, but the pressure is certainly not on my shoulders to be making the race and to be trying to take time back from anyone at this stage it is for the other riders to try and get the jersey from me and for us to be potentially riding a more defensive race.

In Sky terms riding a defensive race is probably still "hammer it on the front with the train so nobody else attacks and then launch Froomey near the finish to keep the pressure up" lol

 

[Tank Engine]

Re:

An early attack by a GC guy would be great as it'd throw a big spanner in the works and Sky would most likely panic big time. There's a slim but decent chance they'll be able to beat Froome in the mountains but why wait then, why wait and feed into his comfort zone...have to get him ragged before the climbs even arrive. As said on another thread, Nibali and Contador are the smartest guys in the peloton. An alliance is highly unlikely, especially after the Giro, but they'd be the two guys who could destroy Froome on one stage and even end his GC chances. Chances of an alliance happening though are about 1%

I can't see Sky panicking if they've still got a few guys in the train and Konig, Porte and G are strong enough to keep things under control until the steep section in the middle. This is the critical point for the GC. Quintana seems to be the strongest of Froome's contenders. If the main group has been whittled down by this point, I expect Froome to attack. What will then be important is who is sitting on his wheel and do they have any interest in working with him? Some major questions will be answered.

1. Dawg
2. Stoneface
3. Bertie

 

[HiroAntagonist]

Skybots are entertaining. Don't you know your team can't ride as well with all of you jacking them off. Not aero.