- Jun 7, 2011
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What chance for the breakaway? 50/50? Sky might let it go and only drill it on the climb I think
Re:
That's what I think too. Strong chance for sure. Why would Sky bother chasing down anyone that wasn't a threat? Who else would?
Poursuivant said:
That's what I think too. Strong chance for sure. Why would Sky bother chasing down anyone that wasn't a threat? Who else would?
Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma
https://youtu.be/e5D55jPvipg?t=55m
The French West side was climbed in 1987 and 1991. The NW and E sides are frequently climbed in cyclosportives but AFAIK have never been raced by pros.
http://cyclingcols.com/col/PierreSaintMartin_PiedraSanMartin
The French North side they do tomorrow has only been climbed until Col du Soudet (1km below the ski station) twice: 1995 (neutralised after Casartelli's fatal accident) and 1996 (Neil Stephens was first over the summit):Zam_Olyas said:
https://youtu.be/e5D55jPvipg?t=55m
The French West side was climbed in 1987 and 1991. The NW and E sides are frequently climbed in cyclosportives but AFAIK have never been raced by pros.
http://cyclingcols.com/col/PierreSaintMartin_PiedraSanMartin
Could Rodriguez have a chance tomorrow? I know it's a long one for him but it's the only decent sized ascent of the day and I think he may want to cash in again as he looks in good nick. I don't see him losing too much time on this Stage but who knows?
Re:
Less than .00001 according to the OP.
As long as they have the lead, it is in SKY's best interest to let all breakaways get a substantial gap to take time bonuses out of the equation. If other teams want to keep it close to try and win the stage, they should do the work to limit the gap, giving SKY more of a free ride. I don't know how many teams will chase on a stage that seems tailor-made for SKY. But the stage does not necessarily lend itself to a strong breakaway group forming, so I still think the winner will come from the GC combatants.
Poursuivant said:
Less than .00001 according to the OP.
As long as they have the lead, it is in SKY's best interest to let all breakaways get a substantial gap to take time bonuses out of the equation. If other teams want to keep it close to try and win the stage, they should do the work to limit the gap, giving SKY more of a free ride. I don't know how many teams will chase on a stage that seems tailor-made for SKY. But the stage does not necessarily lend itself to a strong breakaway group forming, so I still think the winner will come from the GC combatants.
Think there will be a big break tommorrow
Here are some I think will be in it
One or two Yates
Teklahamianot and at least one other MTN Rider
2 from BSE probably including Sepuldeva
Ryder
2 from Cofidis Edet plus 1
Tony Gallopin and Greipel from LTS
Rolland plus one EUC
Pinot
The prize is the KOM Jersey, Green points for Griepel and fr Gallopin yellow
Here are some I think will be in it
One or two Yates
Teklahamianot and at least one other MTN Rider
2 from BSE probably including Sepuldeva
Ryder
2 from Cofidis Edet plus 1
Tony Gallopin and Greipel from LTS
Rolland plus one EUC
Pinot
The prize is the KOM Jersey, Green points for Griepel and fr Gallopin yellow
- Apr 12, 2015
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Re:
If I were AG2R, I'll try with either Bardet or Peraud. Talansky should also give it a shot.
del1962 said:
If I were AG2R, I'll try with either Bardet or Peraud. Talansky should also give it a shot.
- Apr 12, 2015
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- Jun 19, 2009
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Re:
I'd be surprised to see the likes of Hesjedal, Rolland and Pinot wasting their time swapping turns for 150 km of flat roads. These types of stages usually end up with rouleurs and lesser-known climbers in the break
del1962 said:
I'd be surprised to see the likes of Hesjedal, Rolland and Pinot wasting their time swapping turns for 150 km of flat roads. These types of stages usually end up with rouleurs and lesser-known climbers in the break
- Aug 29, 2012
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Re: Re:
Froome had two choices in that situation:
1. Play cat and mouse with Contador. hoping to beat Contador in the sprint for the stage victory, giving up all chance of the overall victory, and taking a risk that Valverde or Purito catches up with the duo and steal second place overall.
2. Ride on in a strong tempo, hoping that Contador is having a bad day and cracks allowing Froome to win the overall. Gives up the stage victory if Contador is feeling okay. Guarantees the second place overall. Oh, and there's that Overall Combativity Award (lol)
I think most will agree that #2 is the correct option, being the better of the only two options both of which were bad. Sure, it looks stupid if you ignore the context, but can you imagine what the forum will be saying if Froome had chosen #1? Probably something in the lines of 'pussy', 'coward', 'boring'.
Netserk said:
Froome had two choices in that situation:
1. Play cat and mouse with Contador. hoping to beat Contador in the sprint for the stage victory, giving up all chance of the overall victory, and taking a risk that Valverde or Purito catches up with the duo and steal second place overall.
2. Ride on in a strong tempo, hoping that Contador is having a bad day and cracks allowing Froome to win the overall. Gives up the stage victory if Contador is feeling okay. Guarantees the second place overall. Oh, and there's that Overall Combativity Award (lol)
I think most will agree that #2 is the correct option, being the better of the only two options both of which were bad. Sure, it looks stupid if you ignore the context, but can you imagine what the forum will be saying if Froome had chosen #1? Probably something in the lines of 'pussy', 'coward', 'boring'.
- May 17, 2013
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Re: Re:
I wouldn't. It's Bastille Day. With their GC dreams down the toilet, it's too big of an opportunity to salvage their Tour to pass up. It would be much harder on Wednesday and Thursday, when the Sky train steamrolls and the big GC fight takes place.Eyeballs Out said:
- Jan 4, 2011
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I can't wait for tomorrow. It's been a long time since I have been this excited about a stage in a GT. Not that I expect much more than a bit of chess game where the big guys will just test each other and maybe some small differences in the end (though it wouldn't totally surprise me if one of them cracks and loses a minute; looking at Nibali here), but I don't really care.
Finally we will see the 4 greatest gt riders on the planet on peak form riding against each other up a big mountain. The moment we've all been waiting for
Finally we will see the 4 greatest gt riders on the planet on peak form riding against each other up a big mountain. The moment we've all been waiting for
- Jan 3, 2011
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Re:
Sadly we wont. Last the best 3 were on peak (or close to) but sadly crashes ruined it. This year Nibs and Berto dont seem to be at their peak
Flamin said:Finally we will see the 4 greatest gt riders on the planet on peak form riding against each other up a big mountain. The moment we've all been waiting for
Sadly we wont. Last the best 3 were on peak (or close to) but sadly crashes ruined it. This year Nibs and Berto dont seem to be at their peak
- Jul 29, 2012
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I'm afraid that Contador isn't in peak shape
Flamin said:I can't wait for tomorrow. It's been a long time since I have been this excited about a stage in a GT. Not that I expect much more than a bit of chess game where the big guys will just test each other and maybe some small differences in the end (though it wouldn't totally surprise me if one of them cracks and loses a minute; looking at Nibali here), but I don't really care.
Finally we will see the 4 greatest gt riders on the planet on peak form riding against each other up a big mountain. The moment we've all been waiting for
I'm afraid that Contador isn't in peak shape
It will be interesting to see if Froome is peaking now or even has peaked given his strength in the Dauphine and these early stages.
- Jan 4, 2011
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Re: Re:
They all prepared for this race and managed to get through the first week healthy, what more can we ask? I mean, there's so many things that can happen, like crashes, illness, not a 100% preparation etc. it's nearly impossible for ALL contenders to ride the perfect race.
But this sure as hell is the closest we'll get in god knows how many years to a battle royal.
Cimber said:Flamin said:Finally we will see the 4 greatest gt riders on the planet on peak form riding against each other up a big mountain. The moment we've all been waiting for
Sadly we wont. Last the best 3 were on peak (or close to) but sadly crashes ruined it. This year Nibs and Berto dont seem to be at their peak
They all prepared for this race and managed to get through the first week healthy, what more can we ask? I mean, there's so many things that can happen, like crashes, illness, not a 100% preparation etc. it's nearly impossible for ALL contenders to ride the perfect race.
But this sure as hell is the closest we'll get in god knows how many years to a battle royal.
- Apr 30, 2011
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Re: Re:
Yeah, I remember how we were robbed of the great 2006 battle between Basso, Ullrich, Vino & Landis.Flamin said:Cimber said:Flamin said:Finally we will see the 4 greatest gt riders on the planet on peak form riding against each other up a big mountain. The moment we've all been waiting for
Sadly we wont. Last the best 3 were on peak (or close to) but sadly crashes ruined it. This year Nibs and Berto dont seem to be at their peak
They all prepared for this race and managed to get through the first week healthy, what more can we ask? I mean, there's so many things that can happen, like crashes, illness, not a 100% preparation etc. it's nearly impossible for ALL contenders to ride the perfect race.
But this sure as hell is the closest we'll get in god knows how many years to a battle royal.
- Jul 29, 2012
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Re: Re:
Where you think Contador was at in the tour 2006? He looked pretty solid in suisse
Netserk said:Yeah, I remember how we were robbed of the great 2006 battle between Basso, Ullrich, Vino & Landis.Flamin said:Cimber said:Flamin said:Finally we will see the 4 greatest gt riders on the planet on peak form riding against each other up a big mountain. The moment we've all been waiting for
Sadly we wont. Last the best 3 were on peak (or close to) but sadly crashes ruined it. This year Nibs and Berto dont seem to be at their peak
They all prepared for this race and managed to get through the first week healthy, what more can we ask? I mean, there's so many things that can happen, like crashes, illness, not a 100% preparation etc. it's nearly impossible for ALL contenders to ride the perfect race.
But this sure as hell is the closest we'll get in god knows how many years to a battle royal.
Where you think Contador was at in the tour 2006? He looked pretty solid in suisse
Re: Re:
I think there will be to many teams interested in chasing down these riders. Not only all teams counting on mid top 10GC finish in Paris but I think even Sky won't let them go. Voeckler was only gifted 4 minutes and was able to keep yellow until the stage 19 in 2011. These are all arguably more capable climbers than him so Sky will not risk that much IMO. They are still too close to GC lead time-wise. And it will be easy to bring any break back because it's all flat before the final climb. Going into breakaway will be waste of energy for anyone who is still in contention for top10 GC.Velolover2 said:
Re: Re:
Good post!
It's all a big guessing game, but this is about the best guess I've seen yet.
Strong enough break for somone from it to survive, KOM contenders and Bastille stage chasers, plus Gallopin being the highest placed on GC now but not someone who poses a serious GC threat come Paris so will be allowed to go.
One point of note - Nicolas Edet has been pretty bashed up in crashes so far, so unsure if he'll still need a bit more time to recover. He will be the most agressive Cofidis breakaway man for the mountains otherwise though without doubt.
Velolover2 said:
Good post!
It's all a big guessing game, but this is about the best guess I've seen yet.
Strong enough break for somone from it to survive, KOM contenders and Bastille stage chasers, plus Gallopin being the highest placed on GC now but not someone who poses a serious GC threat come Paris so will be allowed to go.
One point of note - Nicolas Edet has been pretty bashed up in crashes so far, so unsure if he'll still need a bit more time to recover. He will be the most agressive Cofidis breakaway man for the mountains otherwise though without doubt.
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