Find out how long it would take an injured person to walk the entirety of stage 21 + the neutral zone, allowing for medical treatment breaks, then add a second, and that's how big a gap Froome needs over Quintana for it to be over.Pricey_sky said:Will it actually get to exactly 1 though? Say he's 5 minutes ahead of Quintana at the start of the Paris stage, there is still chance he could crash and end up with a terrible injury so he loses the race, however small that chance is.SeriousSam said:I wasn't going to abandon the Tour, it's just that my interest is greatly diminished. For one, I'm determined to keep posting the odds every stage until Froome's line has converged to 1.![]()
That's true, but since I'm only using the odds because they contain an estimate of the probability Froome wins the Tour, conditional on all information we have, the moment he crosses the line in Paris, the probability is course 1.Pricey_sky said:Will it actually get to exactly 1 though? Say he's 5 minutes ahead of Quintana at the start of the Paris stage, there is still chance he could crash and end up with a terrible injury so he loses the race, however small that chance is.SeriousSam said:I wasn't going to abandon the Tour, it's just that my interest is greatly diminished. For one, I'm determined to keep posting the odds every stage until Froome's line has converged to 1.![]()
At the risk of going a little off topic here .... your post reminds me of something from 2007.SeriousSam said:I'm curious if anyone will still be willing to bet against Froome, at extremely good odds of course, after stage 20. There's probably always some desperate person chasing extreme long shots.Pricey_sky said:Will it actually get to exactly 1 though? Say he's 5 minutes ahead of Quintana at the start of the Paris stage, there is still chance he could crash and end up with a terrible injury so he loses the race, however small that chance is.SeriousSam said:I wasn't going to abandon the Tour, it's just that my interest is greatly diminished. For one, I'm determined to keep posting the odds every stage until Froome's line has converged to 1.![]()
No gc battle means its unlikely to be pushed.Walkman said:I hope they push it all the way on the last climb. I want to see how fast they climb 2015 vs 2007.
I already placed a bet yesterday morning on Alberto for 3$ @ 41 that will result in a 120 profitSeriousSam said:That's true, but since I'm only using the odds because they contain an estimate of the probability Froome wins the Tour, conditional on all information we have, the moment he crosses the line in Paris, the probability is course 1.Pricey_sky said:Will it actually get to exactly 1 though? Say he's 5 minutes ahead of Quintana at the start of the Paris stage, there is still chance he could crash and end up with a terrible injury so he loses the race, however small that chance is.SeriousSam said:I wasn't going to abandon the Tour, it's just that my interest is greatly diminished. For one, I'm determined to keep posting the odds every stage until Froome's line has converged to 1.![]()
I'm curious if anyone will still be willing to bet against Froome, at extremely good odds of course, after stage 20. There's probably always some desperate person chasing extreme long shots.
Roman and Greek mythological Gods have to work very hard for your 120$ profit today.the-big-bad-wolf said:I already placed a bet yesterday morning on Alberto for 3$ @ 41 that will result in a 120 profitSeriousSam said:That's true, but since I'm only using the odds because they contain an estimate of the probability Froome wins the Tour, conditional on all information we have, the moment he crosses the line in Paris, the probability is course 1.Pricey_sky said:Will it actually get to exactly 1 though? Say he's 5 minutes ahead of Quintana at the start of the Paris stage, there is still chance he could crash and end up with a terrible injury so he loses the race, however small that chance is.SeriousSam said:I wasn't going to abandon the Tour, it's just that my interest is greatly diminished. For one, I'm determined to keep posting the odds every stage until Froome's line has converged to 1.![]()
I'm curious if anyone will still be willing to bet against Froome, at extremely good odds of course, after stage 20. There's probably always some desperate person chasing extreme long shots.![]()
Don't worry Valverde loves it.He might try to drop Quintana,after allILovecycling said:The weather its a real ****, today sunny a no rain and all freakin friday and saturday there should be lot of rain in this area![]()
No, they need to hold those 3 minutes at least, Van Garderen? Your post reminds me Unzue, he said they want to ger rid off TJVG, thats their goal. Is he fvcking serious?! Quintana will take 5 minutes on him in the Alps so why bother,phanatic said:I hope Movistar destroys the competition again. They need to put TJVG in difficulty in order to solidify the second place for Nairo and possibly get Valverde () on the TDF podium. Nairo was never planning to leapfrog Froome before the Alps anyhow, but they should further weaken the rest of the field in the meantime.
In the KoM competition, it will be interesting to see if Majka goes for the break or waits to take the favorites on on PdB. I hope he tries to beat the best head to head at least once this Tour, even if it isn't the same at all as going for GC.
might be.DBotero said:Don't worry Valverde loves it.He might try to drop Quintana,after allILovecycling said:The weather its a real ****, today sunny a no rain and all freakin friday and saturday there should be lot of rain in this area![]()
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your comment made a new aspect of GT racing come to my mind: to be more a giro rider or more likely the tour rider depends a lot on which weather conditions suit you. people tend to say giro is steeper, so suited for pure climbers. but in addition to the parcours the giro has more extreme differences between heat and even snow. not ideal to ride this with 3% bodyfat. still i wanna see froome with full armada sky in the giro.ILovecycling said:might be.DBotero said:Don't worry Valverde loves it.He might try to drop Quintana,after allILovecycling said:The weather its a real ****, today sunny a no rain and all freakin friday and saturday there should be lot of rain in this area![]()
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it wouldnt be such a surprise in this weather, Quintana hates it.
froome @ the Giro lolmalakassis said:your comment made a new aspect of GT racing come to my mind: to be more a giro rider or more likely the tour rider depends a lot on which weather conditions suit you. people tend to say giro is steeper, so suited for pure climbers. but in addition to the parcours the giro has more extreme differences between heat and even snow. not ideal to ride this with 3% bodyfat. still i wanna see froome with full armada sky in the giro.ILovecycling said:might be.DBotero said:Don't worry Valverde loves it.He might try to drop Quintana,after allILovecycling said:The weather its a real ****, today sunny a no rain and all freakin friday and saturday there should be lot of rain in this area![]()
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it wouldnt be such a surprise in this weather, Quintana hates it.
constant heat favors froome. so movistar to ride defensivly, patient and wait for the right moment.
sources pls?DDavies said:35 % chance of rain at Plateu De Beille between 16-19 (weather.com).
Edit: A chance of rain at Port de Lers too.