2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 195km

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Re: Re:

Pricey_sky said:
SeriousSam said:
I wasn't going to abandon the Tour, it's just that my interest is greatly diminished. For one, I'm determined to keep posting the odds every stage until Froome's line has converged to 1. :)
Will it actually get to exactly 1 though? Say he's 5 minutes ahead of Quintana at the start of the Paris stage, there is still chance he could crash and end up with a terrible injury so he loses the race, however small that chance is.
Find out how long it would take an injured person to walk the entirety of stage 21 + the neutral zone, allowing for medical treatment breaks, then add a second, and that's how big a gap Froome needs over Quintana for it to be over.
 
Aug 31, 2012
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Re: Re:

Pricey_sky said:
SeriousSam said:
I wasn't going to abandon the Tour, it's just that my interest is greatly diminished. For one, I'm determined to keep posting the odds every stage until Froome's line has converged to 1. :)
Will it actually get to exactly 1 though? Say he's 5 minutes ahead of Quintana at the start of the Paris stage, there is still chance he could crash and end up with a terrible injury so he loses the race, however small that chance is.
That's true, but since I'm only using the odds because they contain an estimate of the probability Froome wins the Tour, conditional on all information we have, the moment he crosses the line in Paris, the probability is course 1.

I'm curious if anyone will still be willing to bet against Froome, at extremely good odds of course, after stage 20. There's probably always some desperate person chasing extreme long shots.
 
There will be a lot of action to get into the breaks, especially by climbers down in the GC. Possibly by Saxo and Movistar trying to set up an attack (although the flat sections between the climbs and the hard MTF make it an unlikely proposition). Rolland hopefully will be in the break to collect mountain points. However, I think the hard finish plays into Froome's hands, as he's the strongest. Quintana will be closer this time.

1. Froome, 2. Quintana, 3. Gesink
 
Re: Re:

SeriousSam said:
Pricey_sky said:
SeriousSam said:
I wasn't going to abandon the Tour, it's just that my interest is greatly diminished. For one, I'm determined to keep posting the odds every stage until Froome's line has converged to 1. :)
Will it actually get to exactly 1 though? Say he's 5 minutes ahead of Quintana at the start of the Paris stage, there is still chance he could crash and end up with a terrible injury so he loses the race, however small that chance is.
I'm curious if anyone will still be willing to bet against Froome, at extremely good odds of course, after stage 20. There's probably always some desperate person chasing extreme long shots.
At the risk of going a little off topic here .... your post reminds me of something from 2007.

Going into the final stage Juan Mauricio Soler led the KOTM. With no climbs on the run into Paris he just needed to complete the race to win and was therefore unbackable.

Then, about 12 hours before the stage was to begin Soler's price on Betfair started drifting alarmingly. Over the course of a couple of hours he got beyond even money and (I think) close to $3. Large volumes were traded. The only conclusion was that someone had information that he was going to be removed from the race, as Rasmussen had been only a few days earlier, but nothing at all was being reported to this effect. After a couple of hours his price suddenly started shortening again and quickly got back to $1.01. I still don't know know what the hell happened but it is strongly possible someone purposely started a rumour without any basis and then cashed in big time.

I always had a soft spot for Soler after his riding in that Tour. I hope he's doing ok nowadays.
 
Nov 16, 2011
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After Sky puts in a grueling pace to eliminate all the pretenders, the elite ride together until the first attacks happen. TJ loses perspective and initiates the first launch - quickly buried by Porte and TJ thereafter suffers the rest of the climb due to burning up energy on this amateurish move. Nibali makes a miraculous recovery and starts to pull away but is left to go free due to him no longer being a GC threat. Porte continues to drive a punishing pace but Nibali ends up 1min ahead by 3k to go. Froome then begins to launch himself in a 1000 watt attack, sustaining 500 watt average for the next few minutes, catches Nibali and spins up another 900 watts to pass him and takes the win by a large gap. The remaining field fight for the leftover podium spots while Porte accelerates past them all and even catches and passes Nibali.
 
Jul 22, 2014
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Re: Re:

SeriousSam said:
Pricey_sky said:
SeriousSam said:
I wasn't going to abandon the Tour, it's just that my interest is greatly diminished. For one, I'm determined to keep posting the odds every stage until Froome's line has converged to 1. :)
Will it actually get to exactly 1 though? Say he's 5 minutes ahead of Quintana at the start of the Paris stage, there is still chance he could crash and end up with a terrible injury so he loses the race, however small that chance is.
That's true, but since I'm only using the odds because they contain an estimate of the probability Froome wins the Tour, conditional on all information we have, the moment he crosses the line in Paris, the probability is course 1.

I'm curious if anyone will still be willing to bet against Froome, at extremely good odds of course, after stage 20. There's probably always some desperate person chasing extreme long shots.
I already placed a bet yesterday morning on Alberto for 3$ @ 41 that will result in a 120 profit :D
 
Froomes opponents are too impressed with him it seems.
I think they hope Froome keeps still and so will they... hope that they are better in the Alps. I think Froome will go mental again today.
 
Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

I hope Movistar destroys the competition again. They need to put TJVG in difficulty in order to solidify the second place for Nairo and possibly get Valverde ( :eek: ) on the TDF podium. Nairo was never planning to leapfrog Froome before the Alps anyhow, but they should further weaken the rest of the field in the meantime.

In the KoM competition, it will be interesting to see if Majka goes for the break or waits to take the favorites on on PdB. I hope he tries to beat the best head to head at least once this Tour, even if it isn't the same at all as going for GC.
 
Jul 17, 2011
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Rogers for the win. TS will send him out in break. Depending on whether Froome want to win the stage, of course. I think there is good chance for break.
 
Jul 22, 2010
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Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

Looks like the terrain/weather for a Landis style break. Get away from the main group solo so that you can pour a few hundred water bottles over your head.
 
Jul 12, 2013
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Re: Re:

the-big-bad-wolf said:
SeriousSam said:
Pricey_sky said:
SeriousSam said:
I wasn't going to abandon the Tour, it's just that my interest is greatly diminished. For one, I'm determined to keep posting the odds every stage until Froome's line has converged to 1. :)
Will it actually get to exactly 1 though? Say he's 5 minutes ahead of Quintana at the start of the Paris stage, there is still chance he could crash and end up with a terrible injury so he loses the race, however small that chance is.
That's true, but since I'm only using the odds because they contain an estimate of the probability Froome wins the Tour, conditional on all information we have, the moment he crosses the line in Paris, the probability is course 1.

I'm curious if anyone will still be willing to bet against Froome, at extremely good odds of course, after stage 20. There's probably always some desperate person chasing extreme long shots.
I already placed a bet yesterday morning on Alberto for 3$ @ 41 that will result in a 120 profit :D
Roman and Greek mythological Gods have to work very hard for your 120$ profit today.
 
Aug 4, 2010
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Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

The weather its a real ***, today sunny a no rain and all freakin friday and saturday there should be lot of rain in this area :mad:
 
I have a feeling that Movistar will spring to action on the Port de Lers albeit I do not think the main protagonists will attack because of the length of the Valley. I can see a group of 25-30 riders being present at the start of the final climb. The final climb is so selective there will be big time gaps regardless of how aggressive the race is earlier in the day.

Quintana will attack even if he thinks he may be riding for second- it is his nature and he will want to distance TGV.
 
Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

ILovecycling said:
The weather its a real ****, today sunny a no rain and all freakin friday and saturday there should be lot of rain in this area :mad:
Don't worry Valverde loves it.He might try to drop Quintana,after all :D
 
Aug 4, 2010
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Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

phanatic said:
I hope Movistar destroys the competition again. They need to put TJVG in difficulty in order to solidify the second place for Nairo and possibly get Valverde ( :eek: ) on the TDF podium. Nairo was never planning to leapfrog Froome before the Alps anyhow, but they should further weaken the rest of the field in the meantime.

In the KoM competition, it will be interesting to see if Majka goes for the break or waits to take the favorites on on PdB. I hope he tries to beat the best head to head at least once this Tour, even if it isn't the same at all as going for GC.
No, they need to hold those 3 minutes at least, Van Garderen? Your post reminds me Unzue, he said they want to ger rid off TJVG, thats their goal. Is he fvcking serious?! Quintana will take 5 minutes on him in the Alps so why bother, :mad: they should rather use their freakin brains to do a plan how to take time on Froome lol
 
Aug 4, 2010
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Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

DBotero said:
ILovecycling said:
The weather its a real ****, today sunny a no rain and all freakin friday and saturday there should be lot of rain in this area :mad:
Don't worry Valverde loves it.He might try to drop Quintana,after all :D
might be. :eek:
it wouldnt be such a surprise in this weather, Quintana hates it.
 
Jun 29, 2015
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Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

ILovecycling said:
DBotero said:
ILovecycling said:
The weather its a real ****, today sunny a no rain and all freakin friday and saturday there should be lot of rain in this area :mad:
Don't worry Valverde loves it.He might try to drop Quintana,after all :D
might be. :eek:
it wouldnt be such a surprise in this weather, Quintana hates it.
your comment made a new aspect of GT racing come to my mind: to be more a giro rider or more likely the tour rider depends a lot on which weather conditions suit you. people tend to say giro is steeper, so suited for pure climbers. but in addition to the parcours the giro has more extreme differences between heat and even snow. not ideal to ride this with 3% bodyfat. still i wanna see froome with full armada sky in the giro.
constant heat favors froome. so movistar to ride defensivly, patient and wait for the right moment.
 
Aug 4, 2010
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Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

malakassis said:
ILovecycling said:
DBotero said:
ILovecycling said:
The weather its a real ****, today sunny a no rain and all freakin friday and saturday there should be lot of rain in this area :mad:
Don't worry Valverde loves it.He might try to drop Quintana,after all :D
might be. :eek:
it wouldnt be such a surprise in this weather, Quintana hates it.
your comment made a new aspect of GT racing come to my mind: to be more a giro rider or more likely the tour rider depends a lot on which weather conditions suit you. people tend to say giro is steeper, so suited for pure climbers. but in addition to the parcours the giro has more extreme differences between heat and even snow. not ideal to ride this with 3% bodyfat. still i wanna see froome with full armada sky in the giro.
constant heat favors froome. so movistar to ride defensivly, patient and wait for the right moment.
froome @ the Giro lol :D
 
Jul 24, 2014
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35 % chance of rain at Plateu De Beille between 16-19 (weather.com).

Edit: A chance of rain at Port de Lers too.
 
Aug 4, 2010
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Re:

DDavies said:
35 % chance of rain at Plateu De Beille between 16-19 (weather.com).

Edit: A chance of rain at Port de Lers too.
sources pls?
I saw couple of forecast and I havent seen what you said.
 
Mar 31, 2010
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quintana doesn't suck so much in the heat, he needs to adapt a little. in 2012 vuelta he was amazing at the end and it was really hot.
 

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