2015 Vuelta Stage 11: Andorra la Vella>Cortals d'Encamp 138k

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

If Dumoulin rides smart, rides his own pace, doesn't try to follow attacks and uses the descents to his advantage he could do very well - he's strong obviously and any rain might be in his favour. On the other hand if he thinks he's Contador now, then he's going to be in big trouble

i remember the eneco ardennes stage a few years back, when stybar won gc. Dumoulin was isolated early, led the final 30km or so chasing and still came in with the best

Same last year. He was isolated and Wellens took off and he had to chase all alone.
Just like when Stybar won the GC, Wellens also won the GC. So wether he came in with the best doesn't matter, since he lost the GC both times. Not sure what point you try to make here.

Besides it's a completely different. These are mountains and that were hills.

Dumoulin might as well be able to limit his losses tomorrow. Hell I wouldn't be surprised, but he might as well get minutes thrown at him.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

If Dumoulin rides smart, rides his own pace, doesn't try to follow attacks and uses the descents to his advantage he could do very well - he's strong obviously and any rain might be in his favour. On the other hand if he thinks he's Contador now, then he's going to be in big trouble

i remember the eneco ardennes stage a few years back, when stybar won gc. Dumoulin was isolated early, led the final 30km or so chasing and still came in with the best

Thats all fine and dandy, but this is, unfortunately, the Pyrenées and not the ardennes and the field is named Froome, Quintana, Valverde and Rodriguez and not some riders who either got snubbed from the Tour or wanting to peak for worlds. Prettyyyyyy different.

Cant wait for tomorrow!

 

[Red Rick]

I really hope someone gives it a go on Collada de Gallina, at that point dom's should be pretty fried.

Or if you really want to go crazy, send Valverde in the breakaway

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

If Dumoulin rides smart, rides his own pace, doesn't try to follow attacks and uses the descents to his advantage he could do very well - he's strong obviously and any rain might be in his favour. On the other hand if he thinks he's Contador now, then he's going to be in big trouble

i remember the eneco ardennes stage a few years back, when stybar won gc. Dumoulin was isolated early, led the final 30km or so chasing and still came in with the best

Thats all fine and dandy, but this is, unfortunately, the Pyrenées and not the ardennes and the field is named Froome, Quintana, Valverde and Rodriguez and not some riders who either got snubbed from the Tour or wanting to peak for worlds. Prettyyyyyy different.

Cant wait for tomorrow!

I know he has no chance. Just pointing out he still has a huge engine. Unfortunately no climber legs though.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

On Purito: Exactly kwibus.

I desperately want Purito to find some last week 2013-TdF shape (probably the best he has climbed?) and go on some insane attack, but there is a difference between wanting to do that (not that he has ever wanted that, lul) and now he probably isnt capable of it anyways.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I really hope someone gives it a go on Collada de Gallina, at that point dom's should be pretty fried.

Or if you really want to go crazy, send Valverde in the breakaway

I echo that. There is actually only 4 kilometres of flat (the most on this stage) of flat between Gallina and Comella. I reckon thats the earliest some of the big guns will try

 

[Miburo]

Dumoulin also didn't have the legs to destroy purito on a mur according to 99% of this forum but he still did it.

 

[roundabout]

Re:

Still a little bit disappointed by the Movistar-team in this Vuelta. So far, they have been very useful, but I reckon one of Erviti, Rutherland and Ventoso had been enough when you also have Rojas and actually have real tough multi mountain stages. Rojas and Moreno are decent climbers, but both need a superb day (+5, right) to contribute even early on if the race is on. That leaves them with only Visconti and Amador. Visconti has been super so far, as good in the Giro, but thats still not enough really. Amador gotta take it game to another level, he hasnt been climbing well at all - so far.

I fear that means Movistar somewhat will restrain from some long attack-stuff unless the opportunity arises since I think there is about 5-10 km flat between Gallina and the 2. category and 5 km again before the MTF. But lets see. I think they will try to get Moreno, Rojas and Amador into some breaks and let Visconti sit in the peloton as long as possible. Unzue is probably the DS who utilizes helpers in the break most often, so wouldnt be surprised to see Conti as well since he by far seems the strongest of the Mov-helpers.

Edit: My bad, only 4 kilometres at best. The profiles **** me up since its so short. Thats better if Quinco wants to go

It's not flat between Escaldes where the descent of Comella ends and Encamp where the last climb starts, it's about 3-4% gradient except for a short bit after Escaldes.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I was talking about Gallina and Comella

 

[armchairclimber]

Txurruka ftw. At least, I expect him to have a go from a long way out.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

Surely this is a Quintana stage? If he doesn't win this, I don't like his overall chances for red.

Tom D will surely loose red and probably drop out of the top 5, I can't see him making it over all these climbs with the smaller guys.

Who knows what Froome is going to show up, yo-yo or Sky train?

Not enough climbing for Quintana. Quintana needs a 100km MTT at a constant severe percentage (but not too severe, that would play into the hands of non-pure climbers like Froome, but also not too low, as that would play into the hands of non-pure climbers like Froome ) for his edge to come to the fore.
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Mstar aren't convincing me. Still, Valverde is always on the podium of the Vuelta or thereabouts so it's impossible he loses a huge amount. A fit Quintana could win this, but it doesn't seem like he's at a good level.

My pick is ..Aru

 

[PremierAndrew]

I expect this to be the stage where someone completely unexpected is able to break away when the big teams' doms are fried, while the favourites all look at each other, and that unexpected rider takes red (someone like Bert De Clerq comes to mind - 4'28 down on Dumoulin, decent climber, favourites might not notice him infiltrate an attack

 

[cipurian]

Is it bad that I wish for Froome to win this? I don't get the hype surrounding Quintana, he is young and talented, but he is one trick pony. On the other hand Froomedog seems to be getting quite a lot of heat here. Dude is strong and proven performer, only thing left to see is if he can withstand this sort of abuse.

 

[BrentonOfTheNorth]

Re:

I expect this to be the stage where someone completely unexpected is able to break away when the big teams' doms are fried, while the favourites all look at each other, and that unexpected rider takes red (someone like Bert De Clerq comes to mind - 4'28 down on Dumoulin, decent climber, favourites might not notice him infiltrate an attack

Hmm that's an interesting prediction. Good points... does make sense that the main fireworks might come from someone moderately behind on GC but threatening on a long breakway. Otherwise I doubt there will be much action... not seeing any signs that anybody high on GC will 'race to win' here instead of waiting for the final climb. Human psychology can be irrationally conservative and aiming for top ten UCI points might make such conservatism quite rational. There's also the "nobody got fired for buying IBM" factor... nobody gets in trouble for deciding to stay in the main group and play it patiently. I dunno... just my opinion! Still very excited to see what will happen... even if it's raced conservatively there will be tension in the air over the possibilities of early attacks or riders unexpectedly getting dropped early. A big name like Quintana might unexpectedly yo-yo early on.

Is it bad that I wish for Froome to win this? I don't get the hype surrounding Quintana, he is young and talented, but he is one trick pony. On the other hand Froomedog seems to be getting quite a lot of heat here. Dude is strong and proven performer, only thing left to see is if he can withstand this sort of abuse.

After stage 9, nothing from him would surprise me! I have no idea if he'll get dropped early and lose big time or if he'll crush everyone tomorrow. Or both, LOL

 

[May0maniac]

If Aru had the Giro Astana team it would be total carnage.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Is it bad that I wish for Froome to win this? I don't get the hype surrounding Quintana, he is young and talented, but he is one trick pony. On the other hand Froomedog seems to be getting quite a lot of heat here. Dude is strong and proven performer, only thing left to see is if he can withstand this sort of abuse.

Not many people are hyping Quintana here. Just accepting the fact that he is one of the best climbers out there. He is good based on his size and capabilities. He is a decent descender as well. Or do you want him to crush it on the Time Trials too? LOL.

In fact look at the polls, if anything the majority are hyping Froome instead of Quintana. But hey, don't let the facts get in the way of the truth.

 

[sir fly]

One thing has just sprung to my mind... Does anyone else think that TV producers of Vuelta (TVE) aren't exactly on RAI's and Francetv's level?
Tomorrow's stage is demanding in that sense (TV production) as well. I hope they'll be equal to the task.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

One thing has just sprung to my mind... Does anyone else think that TV producers of Vuelta (TVE) aren't exactly on RAI's and Francetv's level?
Tomorrow's stage is demanding in that sense (TV production) as well. I hope they'll be equal to the task.

I just hope they knock anybody out!

 

[Orbit501]

Re:

Txurruka ftw. At least, I expect him to have a go from a long way out.

Yesterday he was struggling to even hang onto the peloton in the first furious part of the stage when that 40 man break was being established. No idea if he's ill or not, but unlike him.

Yet again I'm going for Bilbao as the man in green to animate the race. Could possibly be their KoM man if Fraile isn't strong enough to keep it. Gonclaves is their strongest rider in the race though it seems.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re: Re:

Txurruka ftw. At least, I expect him to have a go from a long way out.

Yesterday he was struggling to even hang onto the peloton in the first furious part of the stage when that 40 man break was being established. No idea if he's ill or not, but unlike him.

Yet again I'm going for Bilbao as the man in green to animate the race. Could possibly be their KoM man if Fraile isn't strong enough to keep it. Gonclaves is their strongest rider in the race though it seems.

Yeah on a stage like this, if Fraile falters it will be Arroyo or Bilbao.

I think Fraile will falter but then I look at what he did in the Basque Country backing up each day to get the jersey. Yes the stages weren't as bad as tomorrow's but there were still plenty of climbs. So it's 50/50 on him.

 

[skidmark]

Re: 2015 Vuelta Stage 11: Andorra la Vella>Cortals d'Encamp

I agree with the excitement/trepidation here. Anything can happen, including nothing at all. Here's what I think the probabilities are:

Nothing happens at all, tiny gaps: 10%
Nothing happens, but the stage is hard enough that there's some good separation on the last mountain: 40%
Someone from the favourites attacks early (ie. before the last mountain) but it all kind of comes back together (with the type of gaps you'd expect on a mountain stage), but it's kind of exciting: 20%
Early attacks, mano-a-mano racing for 50km and big gaps like the Gardeccia stage of the Giro 2011: 20%
ALL OUT MADNESS FROM THE GUN: 10%

There are so many factors - moving into the high mountains, the cold, the rain, post rest day legs, etc... I just love how unpredictable this is going to be. Even if the racing is negative/boring, someone is going to lose time in a surprising way, and there could be tons of surprises. How's Froome going to be? Valv? Quintana? J-Rod? Dumoulin for that matter? The one thing I can probably guess pretty certainly is that Aru is going to be at least okay, he won't crack and lose minutes. But everyone else has looked both good and bad (or, in the case of Quintana and Rodriguez, at least underwhelming) in recent days, and they're riding a line of season-long fatigue that I really don't know how any of them will handle tomorrow. I can't help but think that, logically, someone's going to have obviously bad legs and others will have to notice and be motivated to leave them behind early to get as much time as possible. But then, at the same time, if I'm feeling good I don't necessarily want to spend it all in case someone else is feeling better down the line. Might be safer to keep my teammates around and see how it shakes out. But all it takes is for one guy who doesn't give a f*ck to go for it, and the dominoes will fall in an exciting way. I'll be hoping for that. Most likely way that would happen, of the favourites, would be Quintana going early, since Movistar are the only team left with a viable 1-2 punch.

But yeah, I'm excited. I feel like the unexpected can and probably will happen. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Nico Roche ended the day in red. Or Majka. Or Chaves again. Or Froome. Or Pozzovivo. Or Dumoulin. I just don't know.

 

[BigMac]

Re: 2015 Vuelta Stage 11: Andorra la Vella>Cortals d'Encamp

I agree with the excitement/trepidation here. Anything can happen, including nothing at all.

[...]

Best line ever.

Good post.

 

[42x16ss]

Hoping for all out madness right from the first km. Some rain would be cool too.

Hoping for something crazy like Le Deux Alpes in '98 or Gardeccia '11

 

[hfer07]

this stage could be a legend IF is raced properly. I don't mind if the winner comes from a breakaway, which is likely to happen, as the GC favorites would wait for others to rattle the race and then follow/mark attacks as much as they can and as the run out of team mates........ not really sure who will attempt to go for it- perhaps the ones that have found glory in the past by taking the risk - perhaps Thomas De Gendt, Txurruka, Nieve (if allowed) Rolland......

As far as the GC contenders- either Aru tries hard and succeed, or Quintana might start something-Froome will rely heavely on his crew to take him as fresh as possible to the last climb..... but that's all - all perhaps coming close to one another

 

[TommyPlus]

I think a breakaway will take it. As the weather is scheduled to be pretty grim I've discounted the real lightweight climbers and taken a little punt on Dombrowski. Appealing odds for a guy with a little climbing pedigree and no team duties to deal with.