2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedilla

[Flamin]

Puerto de Navacerrada, 1ª (km 30): 1.860 m – 9,4 km – 6,6 %
Puerto de la Morcuera (norte), 1ª (km 67,5): 1.770 m – 11,5 km – 5,4 %
Peña Real / Cerro Peñote, np (km 94): 1.105 m – 2,6 km – 7 %
Puerto de la Morcuera (sur), 1ª (km 127): 1.660 m – 10,4 km – 6,6 %
Puerto de Cotos, 1ª (km 158): 1.825 m – 12,7 km – 5,1 %

The stage kicks off in San Lorenzo de El Escorial. After barely 17km the peloton goes through Cercedilla, the finish place. They basically do a giant loop and ride a big part of the route twice, in opposite directions.

First of two key points to attack Dumoulin is the Puerto de Navacerrada. This is obviously where Astana, Katusha,... should try to send riders up the road.

The north side of Morcuera. Easy climb. Tranquilo.

Long, mainly flat loop (with just a short uncategorized climb) to arrive at the foot of Morcuera again. Now this is the 2nd key point, since it's the hardest climb of the day. Aru, Purito etc. need to unleash hell on Dumoulin here. Then in an ideal situation they can link up with their team mates up the road who can assist them on the descent and in the valley towards the last climb.

The final climb is Puerto de Cotos. If Dumoulin hadn't dropped on Morcuera, well.. he's likely not going to on this climb either.

Cotos is followed first by almost 7km of flat, until a fast descent from Navacerrada into Cercedilla. The final km has an uphill drag, so that's not unimportant if it comes down to a reduced sprint for bonifications.

Top-10 GC:

1. DUMOULIN Tom 174 TEAM GIANT - ALPECIN 78h 20' 51''
2. ARU Fabio 21 ASTANA PRO TEAM + 00' 06''
3. RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin 181 TEAM KATUSHA + 01' 24''
4. MAJKA Rafal 201 TINKOFF - SAXO + 02' 31''
5. QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 125 MOVISTAR TEAM + 03' 02''
6. VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 121 MOVISTAR TEAM + 03' 24''
7. CHAVES RUBIO Johan Esteban 141 ORICA GreenEDGE + 03' 39''
8. MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel 186 TEAM KATUSHA + 03' 46''
9. NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 6 TEAM SKY + 04' 19''
10. MEINTJES Louis 133 MTN - QHUBEKA + 07' 00'

 

[Arredondo]

Astana will try for sure.
Katusha not
Movistar with Quintana for 3rd, although i don't think they believe in it anymore.
Tinkoff looks like they are defending 4th place
All the other teams will try to hold their position

Tom will win this

 

[DFA123]

This is a great stage to finish the race on. When announced it didn't seem so, but with Dumoulin now in contention it is almost the perfect stage - 50/50 whether or not Aru will be able to drop him.

There's certainly enough ascending (3800m - the third most of any stage in the race), but the gradients are gentle enough that it will take some super aggressive riding and maybe some interesting tactics to shake Dumoulin off.

With the mindset Movistar seem to have now, I could see Valverde going for a stage win as well, which will then force Saxo and Katusha to ride hard. All set up to be an epic stage.

 

[BigMac]

Hope the break takes it and Gonçalves can step another notch by surviving those mountains.

 

[Jspear]

Aru to win the stage - and the overall by 1 second.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

If Aru wants to win, he can't wait till the last climb. He has to gamble earlier and Astana have to set a stupid pace in the hope TD cracks. If they soft pedal till that last climb they are fools. That said....it's been a long race and they may simply not have the juice left to try something aggressive.

 

[Forunculo]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

San Lorenzo de El Escorial what a great place for a dutch

 

[Hugo Koblet]

No way the break takes this. Astana will make sure of that. This will be a good stage. I mean it has to, right?

 

[jsem94]

Dumoulin to stay within 50cm of Aru's back wheel all day and control his lead.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

No way the break takes this. Astana will make sure of that. This will be a good stage. I mean it has to, right?

You would think there will be drama, even if they all cross the line together, there will be drama.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

If everyone is stupid and there are no attacks before Cotos, Dumoulin will take this. Otherwise he should be isolated early and he can't follow everyone which means that even riders like Majka could be a big danger for him.
Whatever, I am really hyped for this stage. It just has to be good.

 

[gunara]

Majka need to be crazy enough to challenge Rodriguez podium spot from afar, then maybe we can have a nice pace

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

If everyone is stupid and there are no attacks before Cotos, Dumoulin will take this. Otherwise he should be isolated early and he can't follow everyone which means that even riders like Majka could be a big danger for him.
Whatever, I am really hyped for this stage. It just has to be good.

Yeah agree. Astana better attack on the first or second climb.

 

[SafeBet]

Landa will go berserk after basically resting for 4 days in a row. Prepare yourself for some nuclear racing.

Also Valverde and Pozzovivo will attack.

 

[classicomano]

I think Major Tom will cross the last mountain a couple seconds behind Aru and then crush him in the downhill. Ensuring the victory.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Majka need to be crazy enough to challenge Rodriguez podium spot from afar, then maybe we can have a nice pace

Majka seems content with 4th place. I don't expect anything from him.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

Landa will go berserk after basically resting for 4 days in a row. Prepare yourself for some nuclear racing.

Also Valverde and Pozzovivo will attack.

Yes...you could be on to something there. He'll want to leave one final F/U for Astana, haha.

 

[gunara]

Majka need to be crazy enough to challenge Rodriguez podium spot from afar, then maybe we can have a nice pace

Majka seems content with 4th place. I don't expect anything from him.

I know, or maybe he just doesn't have it, but one can dream, I really want to see good racing

About Dumoulin, how would team atmosphere like when almost every important day the other riders know they can't really do much to defend the leader's jersey? Does everyone just say good luck, have fun, and see you on the bus?

 

[SafeBet]

Majka has lately been very impressive in following or making his teammates follow any attack by riders behind him in the GC.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Majka need to be crazy enough to challenge Rodriguez podium spot from afar, then maybe we can have a nice pace

Majka seems content with 4th place. I don't expect anything from him.

I know, or maybe he just doesn't have it, but one can dream, I really want to see good racing

About Dumoulin, how would team atmosphere like when almost every important day the other riders know they can't really do much to defend the leader's jersey? Does everyone just say good luck, have fun, and see you on the bus?

What they will tell their grandchildren?

 

[Afrank]

Dumoulin was pretty convincing today. One thing I'm completely sure of is he won't be dispatched easily, he'll fight to the end to keep Aru in his sights.

Aru and Astana will have to take some risks and leave nothing in the tank to win this.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Majka need to be crazy enough to challenge Rodriguez podium spot from afar, then maybe we can have a nice pace

He was already riding for his 4th place today.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

This will be as boring as stage 11. Astana to dog on the third climb. Aru is as bad in descending as Dumoulin.

Would like to see a Purito suicide attack but I think he wont.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Dumoulin was pretty convincing today. One thing I'm completely sure of is he won't be dispatched easily, he'll fight to the end to keep Aru in his sights.

Aru and Astana will have to take some risks and leave nothing in the tank to win this.

The fact that Aru jumped yesterday to all of Valverde's accelerations shows how much risk he's willing to take and how tactically smart they are at Astana.

 

[Escarabajo]

Dumoulin to destroy everyone on the last climb a la VDB!!