2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedilla

[BigMac]

In Portugal everyone wants Dumoulin to win. At least that I know of. Those who beg to differ are muted.

If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

 

[Pantani_lives]

Two Dutch riders have won the Vuelta in the past: Jan Janssen (1967) and Joop Zoetemelk (1979). Both went on to win the Tour one year later.

 

[Cookster15]

I'm not Dutch but I'm definitely hoping Dumoulin can hold on ..... and I now think he will. Go big fella !

But tomorrow will be a test of Aru's mental strength as much as Dumoulin's. It would be easy to be demoralised after throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the big Dutchman and still coming up with zero. But it is this poker faced resistance that has warmed me to Dumoulin the longer this Vuelta has gone. Its almost like Dumo is saying after each attack from his rivals "is that all you got?"

 

[Orbit501]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

If everyone is stupid and there are no attacks before Cotos, Dumoulin will take this. Otherwise he should be isolated early and he can't follow everyone which means that even riders like Majka could be a big danger for him.
Whatever, I am really hyped for this stage. It just has to be good.

I think young Tom has already shown he's smart enough to know that he really only has to mark one wheel.

Let others who want to panic panic.

 

[Carols]

Re:

I really want him winning the Vuelta, way more than Aru. He reminds me the Great Indurain.

There were moments in the TT when I was like...it's Big Mig! He doesn't look like Mig climbing though.

 

[SeriousSam]

I've heard even in Italy, everyone wants Dumoulin to win. Everyone's behind Tom. He needs to win this hilarious Vuelta

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

My tactical advice for Astana:
1. On the first two climbs set the pace high enough to drop Dumoulin's team mates and isolate him.
2. Early on the third climb let Landa attack.
3. Just before the top of the third climb Aru jumps to Landa, leaving Dumoulin behind without team mates.
4. Ride to the finish as fast as possible.

My tactical advice for Giant:
1. Let Dumoulin wheelsuck Aru. In contrast to popular belief this has never harmed anyone's popularity.
2. Make coalitions with other teams. The Savoldelli system.
3. Ride to the finish as fast as possible.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

If everyone is stupid and there are no attacks before Cotos, Dumoulin will take this. Otherwise he should be isolated early and he can't follow everyone which means that even riders like Majka could be a big danger for him.
Whatever, I am really hyped for this stage. It just has to be good.

I think young Tom has already shown he's smart enough to know that he really only has to mark one wheel.

Let others who want to panic panic.

Exactly. Then Tom can use the strength of Astana to his advantage. He surely only needs to follow one wheel and he has shown in recent days that is no problem. If Aru tries to jump to Landa Dumoulin should be able to hold his wheel based on what we have seen already. Frankly on 6% climb like Cotos I think Dumo is stronger anyhow. Tom needs to have a bad day to lose its that simple.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Aru will almost certainly burn himself out attacking in places where it's impossible to get a gap (which is most of the stage) and chasing down attacks which are no threat to him. I hope Astana don't underestimate that final km. I think the last 200m or so kicks up at approx 8%. At the end of a hard stage (and race) I think it's possible to take a few seconds plus the bonuses if they are on offer

 

[Eyeballs Out]

BTW it looks like the whole stage may be televised if the current Eurosport schedules are to be believed

 

[Velolover2]

I've developed a dislike of Majka. He has been wheelsucking his way to that 4th place. And except for the Tour, it's the same in every race. Boring rider. He is the biggest wheelsucker in the peloton IMO. Worse than Gerrans.

I hope one of the Movistar guys will take his spot.

 

[Orbit501]

Re:

BTW it looks like the whole stage may be televised if the current Eurosport schedules are to be believed

Well one thing in our favour is that it's not skiing season.

On the other hand, there's bound to be some juniors tennis tournament in Timbuktu or somewhere at the moment that naturally takes precedence over all things cycling

I'll still be looking for streams early doors for full live coverage, but I refuse to get my hopes up too high with all things Eurosport.

Best scenario for me would have been full live coverage from ITV4 and relegate ToB to highlights only for the day.

 

[yespatterns]

Re:

I've heard even in Italy, everyone wants Dumoulin to win. Everyone's behind Tom. He needs to win this hilarious Vuelta

Riiiigghhtt....

 

[Koba80]

Doesn't everyone want TD to win? He's like the road-history, non-Sky, not-a-complete-arsehole, Brad, right?
(Coincidence fact: also the last non-team leader* to win a GT.)

*Putting the here for later for people who don't get [bad] jokes.

 

[jflemaire]

Re:

I've heard even in Italy, everyone wants Dumoulin to win. Everyone's behind Tom. He needs to win this hilarious Vuelta

I've heard that even Aru's mother wants Dumoulin to win.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Lets hope Aru is inspired by the Italian giant slayer in Woman's Tennis.
Incredibile Roberta Vinci!
Serana e' sconfitta!

 

[orangerider]

Tom will take it. Those climbs aren't steep enough to dislodge him and Aru, et al are all too tired to put in sustained attacks that will stick. A lot of lower placed guys will want some final glory too and have fresher legs for stage win.

 

[Matteo.]

Re:

I've heard even in Italy, everyone wants Dumoulin to win. Everyone's behind Tom. He needs to win this hilarious Vuelta

I confirm.
In Italy he is getting a decent success, as always in our land: we look more to the rider instead nationality (although Aru is a guy who gets pleasure)

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

I like Aru too but you have to be on Dumoulin's side. However I'd rather take a great last stage combined with a victory by aru, than a lame last stage combined with a victory by Dumoulin

 

[Ciddaman]

In Italy we are all with Aru. I think it's very difficult for him to take the 2015 Vuelta but he is a fighter. He still won podiums in GC and even if he crash yesterday I'm sure that he'll find any single drop of energy today to fight. That's why we all support Aru.
Today's stage show climb that suite him very well for grandients, don'underestimate the fact that he give his better on regular long climb, he is not an explosive climber, but his endurance is incredible.
For sure he'll need the best Landa and a great team, as Astana is although Nibali and Tiralongo lacks.
I think It's a 65% Dumoulin and 35% Aru today.
Go Fabio!

 

[manafana]

I like Aru, he races nicely and he takes it on, but Dumoulin to win would be great he has ridden like a star and is what modern bike racing is, riding at just below your absolute limit always, attacking like a mad man isn't what would work, he has been deadly effective.

 

[WheelofGear]

On, the first couple of climbs Astana have to get rid off Dumoulin's teammates.

Then Astana have to let Dumoulin do all the chasing andt tire him out if someone lower down in the GC attack on the penultimate climb.

That's pretty much the only way the beat him. If Astana are going to chase down Quintana, Valverde, Chaves or even Majka and Rodriguez, they are truly stupid.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

On PCM this would be the greatest stage of all time, but I'm preparing myself to witness this incredibly frustrating placement riding. Today Tinkoff riding behind Valverde, and Astana, just like yesterday when they panicked when Purito attacked, again closing a 30m gap to Purito. Why God, why? Cuz guess what, Dumoulin had Craddock still fresh as a daisy to lead him out on the cobbles, while Aru had... right, nobody.

If Purito goes first tomorrow, Aru needs to grow a pair of balls, even if he has 752189 team mates left, put on a poker face and sit behind Dumoulin.

That's not going to happen'

If Astana chases Purito down instead of letting TD doing it, I'll smash my TV (a la Oleg)

This

Yeah, that would be idiotic. Maybe an alliance between Katusha and Astana is possible? Purito and Landa attack together on Morcuera.

Dumoulin is trying to chase them with Aru on his wheel. Aru finally attacks Dumoulin after he has done some hard chasing.

That's the only way I can see Aru win this Vuelta.

 

[l.Harm]

No punishment Aru! Beat this cheater Tom

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

No punishment Aru! Beat this cheater Tom

The only thing this image proves is that there was no handsling.