2016 Critérium du Dauphiné, 2.UWT, June 5-12

[arvc40]

Re: Re:

This is the sort of performance from Lil'Richie here that riders like Aru and Pinot just haven't shown they're capable of, and is why he is in a tier with them for the Tour despite his lacking consistency

I'm not sure why people continue to class Porte as a potential GT rider. He clearly should be bracketed alongside riders like Spilak and Rui Costa - who are superb week long races, but nowhere near good enough over three weeks.

I think he will surprise you this year.

Indeed !. He is dangerous. Just needs a good run.

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

Contador has said the GC is not important and that SKY should take responsability becouse thay have 4 or 5 riders who could dispute GC...

That is a lie

Looool taxus, what a great liar you are. I'm portuguese but i know spanish very well. He said that sky has 4 or 5 riders that could target the gc and he said that hia team will not work in next stages to keep the jersey because the main focus is le tour

 

[Oliwright]

12 Seconds between the top 3 can change day 2 day. They are all close and will be competitive.
This doesn't guarantee anything, just enjoy it was what it is.
It's sign for all who did well, but not Final.

Contador and Froome have beaten each other in small races in the past. But Contador has never beaten Froome after a clean run up to a GT, so this Tour will be interesting.

Calm down, Contador fans.

Also props to Richie, he in my view is a GT contender as he can beat the best. Where as Pinot, Bardet can't.
He has just got to put it together, and to be fair as a protected rider he has only failed twice. 2013 and 2014, and he could have developed since.

So enjoy the stage don't make wild assumptions.

 

[arvc40]

Put a tricky decent in and Nibali would have been up there too !

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

LMAOOO Alberto said its not that big surprise that he beat Froome

No way

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

Porte doing well here is not surprising because he's almost always gone well in MTTs. As for saying Froome's a bit behind, the point is that the Grand Départ is still a month away. Saying Porte belongs a tier above Pinot (who's podiumed the Tour) and Aru (who's won a GT and podiumed two others) when his GT record in the GC is still not any better than Paolo Bettini's is jumping the gun big-time. He's never shown the recovery to do it consistently over 3 weeks and has always had a jour sans that's hurt him along the way to date; he needs to show he can erase that issue and being on stupendous form for the Dauphiné isn't always ideal if you can't hold it all the way to the end of the upcoming GT. This is why going from the Ardennes to the Giro has always been a difficult challenge in recent years, because late mountain stages can often see somebody who was in form early running out of steam.

I think people are misinterpreting SeriousSam and my posts.

If only Pinot Aru and Porte turned up to the start line of a GT, I would certainly rate both Aru and Pinot's chances of winning considerably more than Porte's chances, because of Porte's tendency to have a couple of awful days, which you cannot afford in a grand tour.

But the point is, when Contador Froome or Quintana turn up, assuming none of them crash out/get ill/DQ/whatever, Pinot and Aru simply aren't capable of matching those 3 on the climbs or the TTs (well Contador and Froome in the TT at least). Porte, however, is capable of both. So while, in all likelihood, Porte will have a couple of bad days and drop out of contention, he is still more likely than Aru and Pinot to win the GT, considering he's the only one of the 3 that currently has the ability to match the big 3.

As we discussed when talking about Nibali's palmarès and the role of luck, however, we have had GTs where favourites crash out, get ill, get hurt, and so on. Being able to make sure you are the one that profits when this happens is a skill in and of itself. For that, it's better to be consistently close to but behind the best, than to be able to compete with the best most days but then have a pájara and be 20 minutes down when they do crash out, which has been Richie's problem to date.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Porte doing well here is not surprising because he's almost always gone well in MTTs. As for saying Froome's a bit behind, the point is that the Grand Départ is still a month away. Saying Porte belongs a tier above Pinot (who's podiumed the Tour) and Aru (who's won a GT and podiumed two others) when his GT record in the GC is still not any better than Paolo Bettini's is jumping the gun big-time. He's never shown the recovery to do it consistently over 3 weeks and has always had a jour sans that's hurt him along the way to date; he needs to show he can erase that issue and being on stupendous form for the Dauphiné isn't always ideal if you can't hold it all the way to the end of the upcoming GT. This is why going from the Ardennes to the Giro has always been a difficult challenge in recent years, because late mountain stages can often see somebody who was in form early running out of steam.

I think people are misinterpreting SeriousSam and my posts.

If only Pinot Aru and Porte turned up to the start line of a GT, I would certainly rate both Aru and Pinot's chances of winning considerably more than Porte's chances, because of Porte's tendency to have a couple of awful days, which you cannot afford in a grand tour.

But the point is, when Contador Froome or Quintana turn up, assuming none of them crash out/get ill/DQ/whatever, Pinot and Aru simply aren't capable of matching those 3 on the climbs or the TTs (well Contador and Froome in the TT at least). Porte, however, is capable of both. So while, in all likelihood, Porte will have a couple of bad days and drop out of contention, he is still more likely than Aru and Pinot to win the GT, considering he's the only one of the 3 that currently has the ability to match the big 3.

That still doesn't address one key issue:

Why do you think it's more likely that Porte will suddenly, at the age of 31, find the ability to recover with the best in Grand Tours, than it is that Aru or Pinot will make a small step up in ability to be able to hang with Froome or Contador on the climbs?

 

[May0maniac]

That would have been a great MTT for Bala, a short, explosive effort on super steep ramps, Dan Martin and Alaphilippe did really well, it would have been almost perfect for a really punchy climber who's great on really steep climbs.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Porte doing well here is not surprising because he's almost always gone well in MTTs. As for saying Froome's a bit behind, the point is that the Grand Départ is still a month away. Saying Porte belongs a tier above Pinot (who's podiumed the Tour) and Aru (who's won a GT and podiumed two others) when his GT record in the GC is still not any better than Paolo Bettini's is jumping the gun big-time. He's never shown the recovery to do it consistently over 3 weeks and has always had a jour sans that's hurt him along the way to date; he needs to show he can erase that issue and being on stupendous form for the Dauphiné isn't always ideal if you can't hold it all the way to the end of the upcoming GT. This is why going from the Ardennes to the Giro has always been a difficult challenge in recent years, because late mountain stages can often see somebody who was in form early running out of steam.

I think people are misinterpreting SeriousSam and my posts.

If only Pinot Aru and Porte turned up to the start line of a GT, I would certainly rate both Aru and Pinot's chances of winning considerably more than Porte's chances, because of Porte's tendency to have a couple of awful days, which you cannot afford in a grand tour.

But the point is, when Contador Froome or Quintana turn up, assuming none of them crash out/get ill/DQ/whatever, Pinot and Aru simply aren't capable of matching those 3 on the climbs or the TTs (well Contador and Froome in the TT at least). Porte, however, is capable of both. So while, in all likelihood, Porte will have a couple of bad days and drop out of contention, he is still more likely than Aru and Pinot to win the GT, considering he's the only one of the 3 that currently has the ability to match the big 3.

That still doesn't address one key issue:

Why do you think it's more likely that Porte will suddenly, at the age of 31, find the ability to recover with the best in Grand Tours, than it is that Aru or Pinot will make a small step up in ability to be able to hang with Froome or Contador on the climbs?

It's been 13 months since we last saw Porte leading a team. There's more of a chance that Porte will have suddenly gained that ability in the 14 months between last year's Giro and this year's Tour than there is that Aru or Pinot will suddenly gain the ability to hang on to CF AC NQ within a month. Not to mention that this small improvement in climbing won't come without a deterioration in TTing, and they're already behind in terms of TTing ability as it is as well

 

[Miburo]

Re:

That would have been a great MTT for Bala, a short, explosive effort on super steep ramps, Dan Martin and Alaphilippe did really well, it would have been almost perfect for a really punchy climber who's great on really steep climbs.

Piti isn't that good on super steep ramps. Jesus man, where do people get that from?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

That would have been a great MTT for Bala, a short, explosive effort on super steep ramps, Dan Martin and Alaphilippe did really well, it would have been almost perfect for a really punchy climber who's great on really steep climbs.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

That would have been a great MTT for Bala, a short, explosive effort on super steep ramps, Dan Martin and Alaphilippe did really well, it would have been almost perfect for a really punchy climber who's great on really steep climbs.

Piti isn't that good on super steep ramps. Jesus man, where do people get that from?

Ever heard of a race called La Flèche Wallonne?

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Porte doing well here is not surprising because he's almost always gone well in MTTs. As for saying Froome's a bit behind, the point is that the Grand Départ is still a month away. Saying Porte belongs a tier above Pinot (who's podiumed the Tour) and Aru (who's won a GT and podiumed two others) when his GT record in the GC is still not any better than Paolo Bettini's is jumping the gun big-time. He's never shown the recovery to do it consistently over 3 weeks and has always had a jour sans that's hurt him along the way to date; he needs to show he can erase that issue and being on stupendous form for the Dauphiné isn't always ideal if you can't hold it all the way to the end of the upcoming GT. This is why going from the Ardennes to the Giro has always been a difficult challenge in recent years, because late mountain stages can often see somebody who was in form early running out of steam.

I think people are misinterpreting SeriousSam and my posts.

If only Pinot Aru and Porte turned up to the start line of a GT, I would certainly rate both Aru and Pinot's chances of winning considerably more than Porte's chances, because of Porte's tendency to have a couple of awful days, which you cannot afford in a grand tour.

But the point is, when Contador Froome or Quintana turn up, assuming none of them crash out/get ill/DQ/whatever, Pinot and Aru simply aren't capable of matching those 3 on the climbs or the TTs (well Contador and Froome in the TT at least). Porte, however, is capable of both. So while, in all likelihood, Porte will have a couple of bad days and drop out of contention, he is still more likely than Aru and Pinot to win the GT, considering he's the only one of the 3 that currently has the ability to match the big 3.

As we discussed when talking about Nibali's palmarès and the role of luck, however, we have had GTs where favourites crash out, get ill, get hurt, and so on. Being able to make sure you are the one that profits when this happens is a skill in and of itself. For that, it's better to be consistently close to but behind the best, than to be able to compete with the best most days but then have a pájara and be 20 minutes down when they do crash out, which has been Richie's problem to date.

Well yes, my whole argument is based on the assumption that the big 3 won't crash out etc, like you said. If you don't assume that, then yes, I would put Aru and Pinot above Porte.
But the chances of all 3 of them crashing out are small enough for me to put Porte above the other two in terms of likelihood to win the Tour

 

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

That would have been a great MTT for Bala, a short, explosive effort on super steep ramps, Dan Martin and Alaphilippe did really well, it would have been almost perfect for a really punchy climber who's great on really steep climbs.

Piti isn't that good on super steep ramps. Jesus man, where do people get that from?

Ever heard of a race called La Flèche Wallonne?

Which isn't really that super steep and piti always waits for the flat part.

Martin, Contador, froome, henao and purito are all better than him on super steep ramps.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Porte doing well here is not surprising because he's almost always gone well in MTTs. As for saying Froome's a bit behind, the point is that the Grand Départ is still a month away. Saying Porte belongs a tier above Pinot (who's podiumed the Tour) and Aru (who's won a GT and podiumed two others) when his GT record in the GC is still not any better than Paolo Bettini's is jumping the gun big-time. He's never shown the recovery to do it consistently over 3 weeks and has always had a jour sans that's hurt him along the way to date; he needs to show he can erase that issue and being on stupendous form for the Dauphiné isn't always ideal if you can't hold it all the way to the end of the upcoming GT. This is why going from the Ardennes to the Giro has always been a difficult challenge in recent years, because late mountain stages can often see somebody who was in form early running out of steam.

I think people are misinterpreting SeriousSam and my posts.

If only Pinot Aru and Porte turned up to the start line of a GT, I would certainly rate both Aru and Pinot's chances of winning considerably more than Porte's chances, because of Porte's tendency to have a couple of awful days, which you cannot afford in a grand tour.

But the point is, when Contador Froome or Quintana turn up, assuming none of them crash out/get ill/DQ/whatever, Pinot and Aru simply aren't capable of matching those 3 on the climbs or the TTs (well Contador and Froome in the TT at least). Porte, however, is capable of both. So while, in all likelihood, Porte will have a couple of bad days and drop out of contention, he is still more likely than Aru and Pinot to win the GT, considering he's the only one of the 3 that currently has the ability to match the big 3.

That still doesn't address one key issue:

Why do you think it's more likely that Porte will suddenly, at the age of 31, find the ability to recover with the best in Grand Tours, than it is that Aru or Pinot will make a small step up in ability to be able to hang with Froome or Contador on the climbs?

It's been 13 months since we last saw Porte leading a team. There's more of a chance that Porte will have suddenly gained that ability in the 14 months between last year's Giro and this year's Tour than there is that Aru or Pinot will suddenly gain the ability to hang on to CF AC NQ within a month. Not to mention that this small improvement in climbing won't come without a deterioration in TTing, and they're already behind in terms of TTing ability as it is as well

Don't agree with that at all. I think it's far more likely that a couple of 26 year olds, who have already proven that they can handle three weeks relatively with little drop off in performance, will be able to find an extra 15-20 watts or lose 2-3kg. A 31 year old, who has always had multiple disastrous days in GTs - with huge drop offs in the final week - suddenly finding the ability to recover and stay strong throughout three weeks is way less likely imo.

And regarding TT ability; it's been shown by many riders in the last few years that weight loss no longer necessarily entails a decrease in TT performance. On the contrary, Wiggins had his best year in 2012, and Froome became far faster at them once he dropped some weight.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

That would have been a great MTT for Bala, a short, explosive effort on super steep ramps, Dan Martin and Alaphilippe did really well, it would have been almost perfect for a really punchy climber who's great on really steep climbs.

Piti isn't that good on super steep ramps. Jesus man, where do people get that from?

Ever heard of a race called La Flèche Wallonne?

Which isn't really that super steep and piti always waits for the flat part.

Martin, Contador, froome, henao and purito are all better than him on super steep ramps.

Exactly this. People don't understand the Mur.

This would have been THE perfect ITT for Purito 2012/2013 style. Too bad that Purito is gone now

 

[LaFlorecita]

Hope this top 10 gives Rosa the motivation to go for a high GC placing

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

Well yes, my whole argument is based on the assumption that the big 3 won't crash out etc, like you said. If you don't assume that, then yes, I would put Aru and Pinot above Porte.
But the chances of all 3 of them crashing out are small enough for me to put Porte above the other two in terms of likelihood to win the Tour

But why would you consider that it's harder for Pinot to catch up that few minutes in the mountains when he's five years younger than Froome and eight years younger than Contador and still approaching peak years, or Aru to stay close enough early on to be able to use his late-week-3 charge (as has become the Astana norm, winning the last two GTs that way and trying to win the 2015 Giro the same way too), than for Porte to erase that big off-day that can cost him several more minutes than Aru and Pinot's not-quite-being-there. When he's over 5 years older than them. And especially as Pinot has shown a significant and clear improvement in his ITT capabilities this season as well, which negates some of his deficit in this area. As I said before, considering he's shown the ability to climb with these elites before, it's also worth noting that he doesn't have a better GT palmarès than Paolo freaking Bettini, which is alarming considering how good a one-week racer he is.

 

[Publicus]

A snippet from Contador's post-race interview:

“It was a very hard time trial, especially from km 2 to 1km to go. I've tried to speed up but it was hard to change rhythm. The climb suited me really well. I knew I could time trial well on this course but I didn't know if I was able to win it. I started flat out and I had good legs. I didn't expect to win but I can't say it's a surprise to beat Chris Froome. It's just been a perfect day and I'll take the race day by day from now on. The time gaps are very small and Team Sky came to the Dauphiné for winning. They even have four or five different riders able to win the overall classification. It would be complicated for my team to control the race from now till the end and it would be too demanding. My goal remains to prepare for the Tour de France more than the overall classification of the Dauphiné.”

I wonder if he was asked if he was surprised he beat Froome....

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

A snippet from Contador's post-race interview:


I wonder if he was asked if he was surprised he beat Froome....

I think he was, I remember the interviewer asking something like that but I didn't pay too much attention

 

[Poursuivant]

Re:

A snippet from Contador's post-race interview:

“It was a very hard time trial, especially from km 2 to 1km to go. I've tried to speed up but it was hard to change rhythm. The climb suited me really well. I knew I could time trial well on this course but I didn't know if I was able to win it. I started flat out and I had good legs. I didn't expect to win but I can't say it's a surprise to beat Chris Froome. It's just been a perfect day and I'll take the race day by day from now on. The time gaps are very small and Team Sky came to the Dauphiné for winning. They even have four or five different riders able to win the overall classification. It would be complicated for my team to control the race from now till the end and it would be too demanding. My goal remains to prepare for the Tour de France more than the overall classification of the Dauphiné.”

I wonder if he was asked if he was surprised he beat Froome....

Exactly, he wouldn't have meant it disrespectfully.

 

[BlurryVII]

12 Seconds between the top 3 can change day 2 day. They are all close and will be competitive.
This doesn't guarantee anything, just enjoy it was what it is.
It's sign for all who did well, but not Final.

Contador and Froome have beaten each other in small races in the past. But Contador has never beaten Froome after a clean run up to a GT, so this Tour will be interesting.

.

Yeah 2013 is very indicative, ain't it?

But it was equal indeed. Like Froome 09' vs Contador 09' with a clean run up to the Tour would've been equal. Very relevant.

Froome has never showed to be able to beat Contador on his A game either. Head 2 head is 2 - 2 in GT's atm.

 

[matusow_m]

Re:

A snippet from Contador's post-race interview:

“It was a very hard time trial, especially from km 2 to 1km to go. I've tried to speed up but it was hard to change rhythm. The climb suited me really well. I knew I could time trial well on this course but I didn't know if I was able to win it. I started flat out and I had good legs. I didn't expect to win but I can't say it's a surprise to beat Chris Froome. It's just been a perfect day and I'll take the race day by day from now on. The time gaps are very small and Team Sky came to the Dauphiné for winning. They even have four or five different riders able to win the overall classification. It would be complicated for my team to control the race from now till the end and it would be too demanding. My goal remains to prepare for the Tour de France more than the overall classification of the Dauphiné.”

I wonder if he was asked if he was surprised he beat Froome....

Honestly tho is anyone actually surprised that he beat Froome? Froome has yet to take the crown from Contador untill that actually happens we can talk about beeing surprised. And NO non objective Froome fans, beating a tired Contador who just had won the giro does not count.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

I really hope Sky will try a more agressive strategy throughout the stages to attack and isolate Contador instead of isolating him by burning their own men. I want Froome to win, but with Contador ahead of them, it bodes well for exciting racing.

Come on Sky can isolate Contador easily and still have 4-5 riders up there. Not an issue I guess

Kreuziger is a rider at a similar level than Poels. Today he was one of the few riding with rain. No way 5 SKY riders and Contador alon, but Contador said he doenst mind a lot GC...(wich is not totally true)

 

[perico]

Re: Re:

LMAOOO Alberto said its not that big surprise that he beat Froome

Dude honestly noone else is either besides the deluded Froome fans, Froome has never beaten Contador besides when Contador have riden the Giro first. Look Vuelta Contador beat him there too on equal terms so no surprise to anyone.

Froome and Alberto at that Vuelta were coming in off different injuries. 2013 tour & dauphine everything was equal and remind me what happened?
2015 Vuelta a Andalucía was equal as well.

2013 was Not really equal. It would be like comparing the 2012 Vuelta that Contador won and Froome finished 4th at. I would say this year will really be the first time both will line up on equal footing with no excuses.