2016 Giro CQ Game

[NairoQ]

Are you really doing this to us?

Keeps the suspense high, if anything!

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re:

Are you really doing this to us?

Keeps the suspense high, if anything!

It took a while to get a GC top 50 and confirmation that everyone had finished, and my wife needed to be collected from the shops. Just be glad I dropped her off at her mother's and didn't stay there myself for the obligatory visit...

 

[murali]

me down to 30s again :-(


looks like my strategy failed this time....miserably

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re:

Landa out ... its over for me

18Valve may well have thought the same...
(This was posted immediately after Landa's exit, when Jancouver was >100 pts ahead of 18Valve)

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Withdrawals have been fairly important in the game this edition (although 18Valve survived the biggest DNF cost there was). No-one will bring a full complement of 9 to Turin, and Leadbelly, Clint Eastwood-like, rides into town alone.

8 enduring: Caruut and Comodoro
7 survivors:18Valve, Murali, Vladimir
6 steadfast: Barmaher, BicycleBoy, BluesInTheBottle, Capt_Cavman, GPBlanco, Jancouver, JustSomeGuy, Kazistuta, Postmanhat, TomJelte
5 fighters: AmisVelo, Armchair_Cyclist, GeraintTooFast, Hugo87, Josedin, JosephD, Kabete, LightBing, Mellow_Velo, NairoQ, Not_My_Circus, Rote_Laterne, Shalgo, Tigerion, Torcia86, Trudgin, Yellow_Knight
4 with forbearance: ArchieBoy, Bbass, Crevaison, Del1962, DJW, Hakkie2, Laarsland, LosBrolin, Murrjt, PremierAndrew, Search, SemirS
A tireless trio (I wish I hadn't started this alliteration): Carlo_Algatrensig, Fauniera, GodChild, Joelsim, Minessa, Scrool07
A determined duo: Collective Wisdom
Simply solo: Leadbelly

 

[NairoQ]

Re: Re:

Are you really doing this to us?

Keeps the suspense high, if anything!

It took a while to get a GC top 50 and confirmation that everyone had finished, and my wife needed to be collected from the shops. Just be glad I dropped her off at her mother's and didn't stay there myself for the obligatory visit...

Haha, I am glad. I honestly thought you wanted to not reveal the winner before the final stage, for suspense reasons.

 

[NairoQ]

Re:

Seems like a Kittel is a must for this game ... I can't imagine anyone without Kittel winning this game

Speaking of early judgements, it turns out the first one with Kittel got placed 7th.

I myself made a few 'too early conlusions' as well: after a while I was convinced Comodor would win, who then seemed in a not-that-good position for a while. This convinced me of GPBlanco's victory. He ended up in 12th, while Comodoro still got 2nd place.

I can't remember a game swinging entirely the different way this often, and this late.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re: Re:

Seems like a Kittel is a must for this game ... I can't imagine anyone without Kittel winning this game

Speaking of early judgements, it turns out the first one with Kittel got placed 7th.

I myself made a few 'too early conlusions' as well: after a while I was convinced Comodor would win, who then seemed in a not-that-good position for a while. This convinced me of GPBlanco's victory. He ended up in 12th, while Comodoro still got 2nd place.

I can't remember a game swinging entirely the different way this often, and this late.

On rest day 2, I posted at VR that I thought 18Valve was the most likely winner. But I withdrew that when Landa DNFed the next day.

 

[Hakkie2]

This is likely to become the best possible team:

ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin
SIUTSOU Kanstantsin
KRUIJSWIJK Steven
DUPONT Hubert
JUNGELS Bob
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey
FUGLSANG Jakob
FOLIFOROV Alexander

A score of 2404 points for a price of 3486 points.
Most popular rider in this team is Atapuma, who was selected 13 times. These riders together were selected a total of 39 times, making it by far the least popular team (if it had participated). Not one of these riders belonged to the collective wisdom team.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

If Uran had been a DNF, as briefly looked possible, 18Valve would have remained in the lead, but Geraint Toofast would have leapt up to 2nd. And I would have made top ten, but I would not wish injury to RU simply to achieve that.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 21 The final failure to reckon

GuaranteedStage Points
Of the top ten today, only Porsev was selected, and there are no Pink jersey points.

So that is 15 points each for Comodoro, JosephD, LightBing, Rote Laterne and Yellow Knight

yielding final standings of:
1 LightBing 561
2 18Valve 477
3 Del1962 451
4 BicycleBoy 448
5 DJW 445
6 Search 413
7 BluesInTheBottle 393
8 Yellow_Knight 372
9 SemirS 366
10 GPBlanco 363
11 Kabete 354
12 Minessa 316
13 NairoQ 303
14 Laarsland 302
15 Mellow_Velo 297
16 Bbass 289
17 Fauniera 283
18 Capt_Cavman 277
19 LosBrolin 270
20 Not_My_Circus 267
21 Kazistuta 257
22 AmisVelo 256
23 Joelsim 254
24 Comodoro 249
24 Carlo_Algatrensig 249
26 GeraintTooFast 233
26 Armchair_Cyclist 233
28 Murrjt 230
29 Rote_Laterne 223
29 Barmaher 223
31 Postmanhat 217
32 Crevaison 204
33 Caruut 195
34 TomJelte 194
35 Shalgo 191
36 Tigerion 187
37 Trudgin 159
38 Hugo87 152
39 JustSomeGuy 150
39 PremierAndrew 150
41 Scrool07 148
42 Murali 143
42 Josedin 143
44 Leadbelly 139
45 Jancouver 119
46 Hakkie2 98
47 JosephD 83
48 ArchieBoy 79
49 GodChild 73
50 Vladimir 65
51 Torcia86 58
Collective_Wisdom 97


ProjectedFinal points

The three DNFs today were all unpicked, and outside the top 50 so no point changes for overtaking them.
Neutralisation meant that GC was otherwise unaffected.
No mountain points available today, but there were some minor changes in the points classification:
Oss loses 5 points for LightBing
Valverde and Kruijswijk each lose 2 points (for 1 and 9 teams respectively)
Jungels loses 1 point for 4 teams

So the final rankings are:
1 18Valve 1332
2 Comodoro 1256
3 NairoQ 1213
4 BicycleBoy 1194
5 TomJelte 1169
6 AmisVelo 1160
7 Search 1146
8 BluesInTheBottle 1083
9 LightBing 1075
10 GeraintTooFast 1058
11 Kabete 1043
12 GPBlanco 1013
12 SemirS 1013
14 Del1962 989
15 Armchair_Cyclist 962
16 Postmanhat 961
17 DJW 941
18 Rote_Laterne 905
19 Kazistuta 840
20 Caruut 823
21 Capt_Cavman 761
22 Laarsland 759
23 JustSomeGuy 758
24 Barmaher 728
25 Hugo87 712
26 Vladimir 701
27 Crevaison 679
28 Not_My_Circus 670
29 LosBrolin 660
30 Minessa 642
31 Torcia86 628
32 Yellow_Knight 617
33 Murali 604
34 Bbass 577
35 Mellow_Velo 576
36 Tigerion 560
37 PremierAndrew 545
38 Jancouver 510
39 Scrool07 478
40 ArchieBoy 470
41 Shalgo 455
42 JosephD 445
43 Fauniera 408
44 Hakkie2 401
45 Murrjt 385
46 Trudgin 380
47 Carlo_Algatrensig 321
48 Josedin 310
49 GodChild 302
50 Joelsim 299
51 Leadbelly 154
Collective_Wisdom 302

The only positional change being Porsev raising Yellow Knight above Murali for the coveted 32nd place.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Congratulations to 18Valve, especially on winning having effectively lost 32% of his budget on Landa.

In the end, it was necessary to have the overall winner to finish top, but the highest non-Nibalist, Bicycle Boy, beat most of those who had him.

It was good not to have any one rider fattening out his score with too many leader bonus points: Kruijswijk, with 90, was the main one to benefit his team in that column of the spreadsheet.

Congratulations to Comodoro and NairoQ on their podium spots, to LightBing on the stage title, to those who seemed to be in contention at some stage, and to everyone who had a go, as it would have been pointless without you.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Top 30 point scorers
1 NIBALI Vincenzo 637 11 teams
2 KRUIJSWIJK Steven 512 9 teams
3 CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 509 2 teams
4 VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 469 1 team
5 JUNGELS Bob 333 4 teams
6 MAJKA Rafal 269 8 teams
7 AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 258 1 team
8 ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 255 13 teams
9 NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 249 0 team
10 ULISSI Diego 247 0 team
11 DUMOULIN Tom 233 0 team
12 NIZZOLO Giacomo 231 0 team
13 GREIPEL André 225 0 team
14 URAN URAN Rigoberto 206 28 teams
15 BRAMBILLA Gianluca 201 0 team
16 TRENTIN Matteo 189 0 team
17 KITTEL Marcel 168 16 teams
18 MODOLO Sacha 165 0 team
19 VISCONTI Giovanni 161 1 team
20 FUGLSANG Jakob 153 4 teams
21 SIUTSOU Kanstantsin 152 1 team
22 ROGLIC Primoz 125 0 team
23 ARNDT Nikias 123 0 team
24 DUPONT Hubert 121 1 team
24 TAARAMÄE Rein 121 0 team
26 MONTAGUTI Matteo 112 0 team
27 FOLIFOROV Alexander 108 4 teams
28 MOSER Moreno 97 0 team
29 CARDOSO Andre Fernando Santos Martins 96 0 team
29 SCARPONI Michele 96 0 team

Top riders by %age return
1 KOLOBNEV Alexandr 500% 20 teams
2 FOLIFOROV Alexander 360 4 teams
3 RODRIGUEZ MARTIN Cristian 300 1 team
4 ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 175 13 teams
5 ROVNY Ivan 158 0 team
6 SEROV Alexander 150 1 team
7 SIUTSOU Kanstantsin 109 1
8 HERNANDEZ BLAZQUEZ Jesus 100 2 teams
9 RUFFONI Nicola 92 23 teams
10 KLUGE Roger 88 0 team
11 PORSEV Alexander 85 5 teams
12 KRUIJSWIJK Steven 84 9 teams
13 DUPONT Hubert 80 1 team
14 MAESTRI Mirco 68 0 team
15 SIMION Paolo 64 2 teams
16 KADRI Blel 60 7 teams
16 ALAFACI Eugenio 60 2 teams
16 JI Cheng 60 0 team
19 CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 59 2 teams
20 JUNGELS Bob 59 4 teams
21 AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 59 1 team
22 RYBALKIN Aleksey 54 1 team
23 CICCONE Giulio 51 3 teams
24 LE GAC Olivier 50 0 team
24 TIMMER Albert 50 0 team


Best for Stage (and pink jersey) points
1 KRUIJSWIJK Steven 245 9 teams
2 DUMOULIN Tom 233 0 team
3 GREIPEL André 225 0 team
4 ULISSI Diego 170 0 team
5 KITTEL Marcel 168 16 teams
6 VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 149 1 team
7 NIZZOLO Giacomo 146 0 team
8 BRAMBILLA Gianluca 141 0 team
9 NIBALI Vincenzo 137 11 teams
10 CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 134 2 teams
10 TRENTIN Matteo 134 0 team
12 NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 125 0 team
12 MODOLO Sacha 125 0 team
14 JUNGELS Bob 118 4 teams
15 ROGLIC Primoz 110 0 team
16 ARNDT Nikias 105 0 team
17 AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 93 1 team
18 DEMARE Arnaud 83 0 team
19 FOLIFOROV Alexander 80 4 teams
19 ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 80 13 teams

Impeccable picks
Nibali
Kruijswijk
Jungels
Amador
Atapuma
Siutsou
Folliforov
Simion
Kolobnev

There are 9 of them, but they would have been slightly over-budget, and have yielded 2286 points

The best possible legal team, according to Hakkie2 (thanks, it's not something I know the coding to calculate) is
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin
SIUTSOU Kanstantsin
KRUIJSWIJK Steven
DUPONT Hubert
JUNGELS Bob
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey
FUGLSANG Jakob
FOLIFOROV Alexander
for a total of 2401 points
and this team would have come bottom of the popular picks total by a long way.

Here is the spreadsheet at Dropbox, so if you want to investigate the figures, or where your team went wrong, have fun.

 

[Jancouver]

Thanks for the game and congrats to all winners.

 

[murali]

A pretty messy Giro this time around:
2 of the riders i was sure to hit top-5 sadly DNFed.

After getting part of the story right for a few stages, i got back to my usual space(in 30s)


Thanks AC for running the game.

A few more weeks, and we will all join for the TdF fun.

 

[NairoQ]

Thanks AC for all the effort, and congratulations 18Valve!

 

[barmaher]

Many thanks for organising this. It was enjoyable and very well run.

 

[Tigerion]

Well losing Landa put me right our but I would not have been close even if he won. Well done 18Valve, a masterful selection

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Thanks. A shame about Landa, though, considering I'd also picked him for the main game -- but mostly because he's one of my favorite riders. Seems as though Sky was the wrong team for him...