2016 Giro CQ Game

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re:

Spent a long time deciding between the similarly priced Kittel and Viviani... thought Kittel would abandon after stage 7 while Viviani would go all the way and go for the points jersey, showing that he's at a similar level to the two German sprinting superstars.

How wrong was I

Five other people made the same error, and two joined me in thinking that Boy Van Poppel might pick up the occasional sprint top ten.

The only teams that still have all nine riders are Mellow Velo, Not My Circus, Murali, Barmaher, 18Valve, Comodoro, Caruut and Just Some Guy; Premier Andrew and God Child are down to six riders each.

 

[murali]

Stage 8 Sterrato
A real shake up: more than might have been expected from one cat 2 hill
...
Standings
Lightbing's lead may look substantial, but the expected rises of Nibali and Landa would see it dissipate very quickly if expectations are fulfilled. Previous leader Minessa hangs on well despite the loss of most of Fuglsang's points, but is also overtaken by GPBlanco, who leaps from 8th to second. Del1962, DJW, Crevaison, Yellow Knight and Carlo Algatrensig all jump into the top ten.
1 LightBing 1261
2 GPBlanco 1060
3 Minessa 1048
4 Murali 1029
5 Mellow_Velo 1019
....
Tomorrow might bring about almost as much change.

despite fugslang having one bad day, minessa and me have only lost 2 spots.


today's stage might be shuffle a bit more. expect real shake up only next week.

 

[GP Blanco]

Kittel just abandoned the giro.

 

[murali]

really horrible stage!

All the crashes and poor poor zakarin has kind of shaken the GC thoroughly
great to see fugslang back to top-10 after a bad day.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 9 A wet time trial

Sorry its late: I was out all day and still haven't seen any highlights yet.

Guaranteed Points

Not what we expected, and not a result that any of us had in mind when we selected our teams:
ROGLIC Primoz 70 0 team
BRÄNDLE Matthias 40 0 team
LAENGEN Vegard Stake 25 0 team
BRAMBILLA Gianluca 18 0 team
CANCELLARA Fabian 15 0 team
VOROBYEV Anton 10 2 teams
JUNGELS Bob 7 4 teams
KÜNG Stefan 5 3 teams
VAN EMDEN Jos 3 1 team
TJALLINGII Maarten 2 0 team
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 1 1 team

1= Barmaher, Not_My_Circus, SemirS 10
4= BicycleBoy, BluesInTheBottle, Bbass 7
7 Mellow_Velo, Joelsim, Murrjt 5
10 Jancouver 1
Barmaher had both Jungels and Van Emden, everyone else who scored only had one scoring rider. Which is one more than 80% of us managed.


Projected Points
Changes today are not those that wuould have been projected
JUNGELS Bob 286 4 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 212 1 team
LANDA MEANA Mikel 30 28 teams
HESJEDAL Ryder 24 9 teams
FUGLSANG Jakob 23 4 teams
VISCONTI Giovanni 12 1 team
VOROBYEV Anton 10 2 teams
...

MAJKA Rafal -15 8 teams
FIRSANOV Sergey -20 9 teams
POZZOVIVO Domenico -38 9 teams
KRUIJSWIJK Steven -50 9 teams
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro -50 1 teams
KITTEL Marcel -55 16 teams
URAN URAN Rigoberto -100 28 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban -111 2 teams
ZAKARIN Ilnur -255 16 teams

And when that is applied to our teams, we see a big negative impact: even 2 of the teams to benefit from Jungels' (temporary?) resurgence also suffered Zakarin related losses.
1 Jancouver 214
2 BluesInTheBottle 116
3 BicycleBoy 114
4 Bbass 61
5 Hugo87 54
6 JustSomeGuy 36
7 Rote_Laterne 30
7 GeraintTooFast 30
9 Armchair_Cyclist 28
10 Josedin 9
11 Murrjt -16
12 18Valve -20
13 LosBrolin -38
14 ArchieBoy -39
15 Laarsland -42
16 Postmanhat -45
17 GodChild -46
18 PremierAndrew -48
19 Barmaher -77
20 Fauniera -83
21 Torcia86 -87
22 JosephD -100
23 AmisVelo -102
23 NairoQ -102
25 SemirS -112
26 Comodoro -115
26 TomJelte -115
28 Capt_Cavman -119
29 Tigerion -120
30 Not_My_Circus -122
31 Kabete -126
32 Vladimir -149
33 Kazistuta -150
34 Search -155
35 Caruut -163
36 DJW -175
37 Leadbelly -201
38 Trudgin -241
39 Del1962 -243
40 Shalgo -247
41 Scrool07 -270
42 Joelsim -275
43 Yellow_Knight -276
44 Carlo_Algatrensig -284
45 GPBlanco -312
46 Hakkie2 -315
47 Murali -366
48 Minessa -387
49 Crevaison -415
50 Mellow_Velo -425
51 LightBing -460
Collective_Wisdom -325

So the very different table, if tomorrow were the day after the Giro rather than merely a rest day, emerges:
1 BicycleBoy 972
2 BluesInTheBottle 897
3 Bbass 829
4 Barmaher 822
5 18Valve 814
6 Jancouver 808
7 LightBing 801
8 DJW 781
9 LosBrolin 764
10 GPBlanco 748
11 Del1962 734
12 Not_My_Circus 718
13 Kabete 699
14 Murali 663
15 Minessa 661
16 SemirS 657
17 Yellow_Knight 648
18 Comodoro 618
19 Carlo_Algatrensig 615
20 Rote_Laterne 614
21 Laarsland 604
22 Fauniera 599
23 Mellow_Velo 594
24 Capt_Cavman 592
25 Joelsim 589
26 Hugo87 588
27 Search 582
28 TomJelte 581
29 ArchieBoy 579
30 Tigerion 576
31 Murrjt 575
32 JustSomeGuy 565
32 GeraintTooFast 565
34 Hakkie2 562
35 Postmanhat 561
36 Armchair_Cyclist 521
36 JosephD 521
38 Crevaison 509
39 Shalgo 505
40 Scrool07 501
41 Torcia86 497
41 Vladimir 497
43 Caruut 480
44 Leadbelly 463
45 PremierAndrew 462
46 NairoQ 460
47 AmisVelo 454
48 GodChild 443
49 Kazistuta 433
50 Trudgin 374
51 Josedin 329
Collective_Wisdom 486

The top four are the four teams that have Jungels: higher mountains will probably change that situation.
Only three of the top ten were in that elevated group yesterday: 22 teams went up or down by 10 or more places, of which 6 moved by 20 or more, the most volatile being Jancouver going up 32 places, and Crevaison falling by 30.

 

[Jancouver]

Well, Amador is most likely to drop down by providing domestique duties to Piti again.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

12 riders have withdrawn from the Giro, including 7 selected for our game, including the most popular pick of all (Peraud) and 2 more out of the top 9 infrequency of selection (Kittel and Pelucchi).

The only teams that still have a full complement of 9 riders are 18Valve, Barmaher, Caruut, Comodoro, JustSomeGuy and Murali.

8 riders left: Bbass, BicycleBoy, GeraintTooFast, Hakkie2, Hugo87, Jancouver, Kabete, Kazistuta, Mellow_Velo, NairoQ, Not_My_Circus, Postmanhat, Rote_Laterne, Shalgo, TomJelte, Trudgin

7 still going: AmisVelo, ArchieBoy, Armchair_Cyclist, BluesInTheBottle, Capt_Cavman, Carlo_Algatrensig, Crevaison, Fauniera, GPBlanco, Joelsim, Josedin, JosephD, Laarsland, Leadbelly, LightBing, LosBrolin, Scrool07, SemirS, Torcia86, Vladimir, Yellow_Knight

Down to 6: Del1962, DJW, , GodChild, Minessa, Murrjt, PremierAndrew, Search, Tigerion

 

[NairoQ]

There goes the 2nd most common pick...

 

[NairoQ]

Heck, seems like a good day for me with Ciccone and Atapuma!

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 10 Sausage devastation

A bit of a shake-up was expected today, but not the effective removal of more than half the teams from contention. But first, the relatively mild news of the Guaranteed points

CICCONE Giulio 70 pts 3 teams
ROVNY Ivan 40 0 team
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 25 13 teams
JUNGELS Bob 18 4 teams
BROWN Nathan 15 0 team
CUNEGO Damiano 10 2 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 7 1 team
VISCONTI Giovanni 5 1 team
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 3 1 team
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 2 2 teams
FUGLSANG Jakob 1 4 teams

The 18 point/day pink jersey bonus, which has not been much of a factor thus far, is likely to benefit the four Bs that have Jungels for at least a few days.
1 NairoQ 95 (Ciccone and Atapuma)
2= Fauniera, Leadbelly 70 (Ciccone)
4 Postmanhat 27 (The Colombian duo)
5= Eleven more Atapuma teams 25
16= The four Bs 18 (Jungels)
20 Trudgin 15
21 Vladimir 10
22 Jancouver 7
23 Kazistuta 3
24 Caruut 2
25= Fuglsang's fans 1

1 LightBing 266
2 Minessa 265
3 Fauniera 260
4 Yellow_Knight 249
5 BluesInTheBottle 240
6 Not_My_Circus 234
7 Mellow_Velo 229
8 Murrjt 227
9 Del1962 220
9 Laarsland 220
11 Joelsim 219
12 Carlo_Algatrensig 214
12 DJW 214
14 Capt_Cavman 209
15 Search 190
16 Tigerion 174
17 BicycleBoy 122
18 NairoQ 105
19 Leadbelly 104
20 Bbass 101
21 Murali 92
22 Scrool07 86
23 GPBlanco 83
23 Josedin 83
23 SemirS 83
26 Barmaher 82
26 PremierAndrew 82
28 Shalgo 81
29 Crevaison 78
30 Kabete 71
30 Trudgin 71
32 ArchieBoy 64
33 GodChild 57
34 Jancouver 56
35 AmisVelo 55
36 Rote_Laterne 54
37 18Valve 52
37 LosBrolin 52
39 GeraintTooFast 47
39 Hakkie2 47
41 Comodoro 46
42 Armchair_Cyclist 45
43 Caruut 41
43 Kazistuta 41
45 Postmanhat 39
46 JosephD 35
47 TomJelte 24
48 Hugo87 22
48 Vladimir 22
50 JustSomeGuy 20
51 Torcia86 15
Collective_Wisdom 49

Projected points
JUNGELS Bob 143 4 teams
CICCONE Giulio 113 3 teams
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 103 1 team
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 67 1 team
CUNEGO Damiano 40 2 teams
MAJKA Rafal 40 8 teams
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 39 13 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 33 2 teams
PIRAZZI Stefano 31 10 teams
ZAKARIN Ilnur 30 16 teams
VISCONTI Giovanni 27 1 team
FUGLSANG Jakob 24 4 teams
...
LANDA MEANA Mikel -165 28 teams
(Other than Landa, the worst loss of points by a selected rider were Kudus and Kung at -7)

1 BluesInTheBottle 197
2 Barmaher 196
3 NairoQ 159
4 BicycleBoy 157
5 Kazistuta 117
6 Torcia86 116
7 Vladimir 112
8 Crevaison 99
9 Scrool07 98
10 GPBlanco 97
11 Trudgin 93
12 Murali 86
13 Caruut 77
14 Not_My_Circus 74
15 Minessa 71
16 AmisVelo 56
17 Comodoro 52
17 TomJelte 52
19 Mellow_Velo 45
20 LightBing 44
21 Josedin 32
22 Del1962 20
23 Search 12
24 Bbass 1
25 Leadbelly -10
26 Fauniera -38
27 Postmanhat -48
28 Jancouver -55
29 Capt_Cavman -81
30 Laarsland -86
31 Shalgo -88
32 Hakkie2 -91
33 Yellow_Knight -94
34 ArchieBoy -96
34 Kabete -96
36 PremierAndrew -102
37 Tigerion -111
38 JosephD -112
38 SemirS -112
40 GeraintTooFast -120
41 Carlo_Algatrensig -121
42 Murrjt -122
43 Armchair_Cyclist -125
44 LosBrolin -131
45 GodChild -138
46 Joelsim -142
47 DJW -150
48 Hugo87 -155
48 JustSomeGuy -155
50 Rote_Laterne -161
51 18Valve -167
Collective_Wisdom -123
All the Landa teams are in negative territory apart from B'bass, for whom Jungels and Zakarin just make up for Landa and Kung.

Standings

Top three have Jungels but not Landa: B'bass has both, and fell to 6th.
1 BicycleBoy 1129
2 BluesInTheBottle 1094
3 Barmaher 1018
4 GPBlanco 845
4 LightBing 845
6 Bbass 830
7 Not_My_Circus 792
8 Del1962 754
9 Jancouver 753
10 Murali 749
11 Minessa 732
12 Comodoro 670
13 18Valve 647
14 Mellow_Velo 639
15 LosBrolin 633
15 TomJelte 633
17 DJW 631
18 NairoQ 619
19 Torcia86 613
20 Vladimir 609
21 Crevaison 608
22 Kabete 603
23 Scrool07 599
24 Search 594
25 Fauniera 561
26 Caruut 557
27 Yellow_Knight 554
28 Kazistuta 550
29 SemirS 545
30 Laarsland 518
31 Postmanhat 513
32 Capt_Cavman 511
33 AmisVelo 510
34 Carlo_Algatrensig 494
35 ArchieBoy 483
36 Hakkie2 471
37 Trudgin 467
38 Tigerion 465
39 Leadbelly 453
39 Murrjt 453
39 Rote_Laterne 453
42 Joelsim 447
43 GeraintTooFast 445
44 Hugo87 433
45 Shalgo 417
46 JustSomeGuy 410
47 JosephD 409
48 Armchair_Cyclist 396
49 Josedin 361
50 PremierAndrew 360
51 GodChild 305
Collective_Wisdom 363

NairoQ jumps 28 places: just behind, Torcia86 and Vladimir also had 20+ places of upward movement. Not My Circus, Del1962 and Murali move into the top ten, replacing 18Valve, Los Brolin and DJW: of those in the top ten, CPBlanco, up 6 spots from 10th, has the best move of the day.

We might be on course for the worst ever performance by a Collective Wisdom team in one of these games. 48 teams are beating it: even I'm beating it.

Of top sprinters, the two that were chosen most (Kittel and Viviani) are both out, so I predict that neither daily points nor projected points will do much until Friday. B'bass, Barmaher, Bicycle Boy and BluesInTheBottle getting Pink bonus point each day might be as dramatic as it gets.

 

[Tigerion]

Well this game was fun while it lasted

 

[Kazistuta]

If I knew Valverde would play it safe in his quest for overall victory (yesterdays stage was yet another stage for him), I probably wouldn't have picked him... well, then I'd most likely had picked Landa instead, so at least I still have a rider in contention

 

[murali]

People with all 9 riders in their team and their rank as of stag 10:
Barmaher at 3
Caruut at 26
Comodoro at 12
Murali at 10


Obviously, having all riders is not going to make you win this game. But having all 9 definitely helps.

(anecdotal evidence only. 950 points from wins is not yet included.)

 

[Jancouver]

Landa out ... its over for me

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 11 Flat, but no sprint-fest

Top 2 on GC are in the top three of a flat stage: this is not ordinary.

Guaranteed points

ULISSI Diego 70points 0 teams
JUNGELS Bob 43 4 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 40 1 team
NIZZOLO Giacomo 15 0 team
COLBRELLI Sonny 10 1 team
TRENTIN Matteo 7 0 team
MODOLO Sacha 5 0 team
BATTAGLIN Enrico 3 10 teams
WELLENS Tim 2 0 team
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 1 1 team

As I suspected, not many points here, but Jungle Bob goes beyond his expected 18 for the day.

1= Barmaher, Bbass, BicycleBoy, BluesInTheBottle (Hence my references to the four Bs) 43 (Jungels)
5 Jancouver 40 (Amador)
6 Trudgin 10 (Colbrelli)
7 AmisVelo, Armchair_Cyclis, Caruut ,DJW, GodChild, GPBlanco, Hakkie2, Minessa, Murrjt, Torcia86 3 (Battaglin)
17 Kazistuta 1(Valverde)


The Minessa/LightBing duopoly finally yields to the pressure of Bob Jungels

1 BluesInTheBottle 283
2 Minessa 268
3 LightBing 266
4 Fauniera 260
5 Yellow_Knight 249
6 Not_My_Circus 234
7 Murrjt 230
8 Mellow_Velo 229
9 Del1962 220
9 Laarsland 220
11 Joelsim 219
12 DJW 217
13 Carlo_Algatrensig 214
14 Capt_Cavman 209
15 Search 190
16 Tigerion 174
17 BicycleBoy 165
18 Bbass 144
19 Barmaher 125
20 NairoQ 105
21 Leadbelly 104
22 Jancouver 96
23 Murali 92
24 GPBlanco 86
24 Scrool07 86
26 Josedin 83
26 SemirS 83
28 PremierAndrew 82
29 Shalgo 81
29 Trudgin 81
31 Crevaison 78
32 Kabete 71
33 ArchieBoy 64
34 GodChild 60
35 AmisVelo 58
36 Rote_Laterne 54
37 18Valve 52
37 LosBrolin 52
39 Hakkie2 50
40 Armchair_Cyclist 48
41 GeraintTooFast 47
42 Comodoro 46
43 Caruut 44
44 Kazistuta 42
45 Postmanhat 39
46 JosephD 35
47 TomJelte 24
48 Hugo87 22
48 Vladimir 22
50 JustSomeGuy 20
51 Torcia86 18
Collective_Wisdom 49


Projected points
In the absence of anyone picking Ulissi, today's changes in projected points are modest:
JUNGELS Bob +45 4 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey +43 1 team
ZAKARIN Ilnur +40 16 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban +30 2 teams
MAJKA Rafal +25 8 teams
URAN URAN Rigoberto +16 28 teams
...
ROCHE Nicolas -10 1 team
WYSS Marcel -16 1 team
POZZOVIVO Domenico -24 9 teams
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos -26 1 team
FUGLSANG Jakob -53 4 teams

Likewise, the changes for the teams are minor compared to yesterday, Bob's Bs again leading the gains:
1 Bbass 89
2 BluesInTheBottle 86
3 Barmaher 83
4 GPBlanco 76
5 Scrool07 69
6 Hakkie2 65
7 BicycleBoy 61
8 Torcia86 60
9 Mellow_Velo 58
10 LightBing 56
11 Trudgin 50
12 Leadbelly 48
12 Postmanhat 48
12 Shalgo 48
15 Carlo_Algatrensig 42
15 Joelsim 42
17 Comodoro 41
17 TomJelte 41
19 Crevaison 36
20 GodChild 35
21 AmisVelo 31
22 Laarsland 29
23 PremierAndrew 28
23 Tigerion 28
25 NairoQ 26
26 DJW 25
27 Kabete 22
28 Capt_Cavman 20
28 SemirS 20
30 Vladimir 19
31 Josedin 18
31 Yellow_Knight 18
33 Kazistuta 17
34 Search 16
35 Caruut 15
36 Minessa 14
37 Armchair_Cyclist 13
38 Jancouver 11
38 Murrjt 11
40 GeraintTooFast 10
41 Hugo87 8
42 Rote_Laterne 2
43 18Valve 0
43 JustSomeGuy 0
45 Del1962 -6
45 JosephD -6
47 LosBrolin -16
48 Murali -19
49 Fauniera -24
50 Not_My_Circus -27
51 ArchieBoy -37
Collective_Wisdom 58

Standings
Bicycle Boy remains top of the Jungle Gang, but Blues and Barmaher get closer due to Zakarin's rise in GC (or, more honestly, the falls of Brambilla and Fuglsang). Having both Zakarin and the similarly fortunate Majka is enough to make Scrool07 the riser of the day, while GPBlanco in 4th and the only one to interrupt the Jungels B-gang at the top also boasts that pairing.
1 BicycleBoy 1190
2 BluesInTheBottle 1180
3 Barmaher 1101
4 GPBlanco 921
5 Bbass 919
6 LightBing 901
7 Not_My_Circus 765
8 Jancouver 764
9 Del1962 748
10 Minessa 746
11 Murali 730
12 Comodoro 711
13 Mellow_Velo 697
14 TomJelte 674
15 Torcia86 673
16 Scrool07 668
17 DJW 656
18 18Valve 647
19 NairoQ 645
20 Crevaison 644
21 Vladimir 628
22 Kabete 625
23 LosBrolin 617
24 Search 610
25 Caruut 572
25 Yellow_Knight 572
27 Kazistuta 567
28 SemirS 565
29 Postmanhat 561
30 Laarsland 547
31 AmisVelo 541
32 Fauniera 537
33 Carlo_Algatrensig 536
33 Hakkie2 536
35 Capt_Cavman 531
36 Trudgin 517
37 Leadbelly 501
38 Tigerion 493
39 Joelsim 489
40 Shalgo 465
41 Murrjt 464
42 GeraintTooFast 455
42 Rote_Laterne 455
44 ArchieBoy 446
45 Hugo87 441
46 JustSomeGuy 410
47 Armchair_Cyclist 409
48 JosephD 403
49 PremierAndrew 388
50 Josedin 379
51 GodChild 340
Collective_Wisdom 421

If Nibali is still expected to rise to the top, the teams best positioned to benefit are Comodoro, Tom Jelte, 18Valve (remarkably, considering the loss of Landa), NairoQ and Search.

Tomorrow will not be the day that happens though, and in terms of the game, I doubt much else will.

 

[Blues in the bottle]

Arm,Thanks for the updates. It sure is nice breathing this rarefied air.

When my team was voted least popular I was scared to death. Then Kittle went out. When Uran struggled during the time trial I thought it was curtains . Now I have nowhere to go but down but it’s been a great ride.

The collective wisdom's current performance has statisticians talking and scratching their heads at the same time.

Happy to be one of the four B’s,
Blues

 

[murali]

Re:

Landa out ... its over for me

you are in top-10 and giving up?

i think you should just wait till stage 17....

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 12 Pancake Thursday

Guaranteed points

Without Kittel and Viviani, the only remaining sprinter to have had many points spent on him is Ewan. (I'm not counting Colbrelli as a true sprinter) Two teams will be pleased to see Greipel on his way with stages 17 and 21 to come.

GREIPEL André 70 pts 0 team
EWAN Caleb 40 2 teams
NIZZOLO Giacomo 25 0 team
JUNGELS Bob 18 4 teams
MODOLO Sacha 15 0 team
PORSEV Alexander 10 5 teams
HOFLAND Moreno 7 0 team
SAVITSKY Ivan 5 0 team
HAUSSLER Heinrich 3 0 team
ZABEL Rick 2 0 team
COLBRELLI Sonny 1 1 team

Only Blues in the Bottle has more than one of these riders, pairing Ewan and Jungels:
1 BluesInTheBottle 58
2 Josedin 40
3= Barmaher, Bbass, BicycleBoy 18
6= Comodoro, JosephD, LightBing, Rote_Laterne , Yellow_Knight 10
11 Trudgin 1

LightBing is back to 2nd, only change in the GP top 15, so I won't bother showing much of the table.
1 BluesInTheBottle 341
2 LightBing 276
3 Minessa 268
4 Fauniera 260
5 Yellow_Knight 259

Projected points
There were absolutely no changes in the top 50 of GC, so other than the guaranteed points, the only changes are minor changes at the bottom of the points top ten and Agnoli's withdrawal.

EWAN Caleb +42 2 teams
JUNGELS Bob +16 4 teams
PORSEV Alexander +10 5 teams
OSS Daniel +5 1 team
COLBRELLI Sonny +1 1 teams
...

CICCONE Giulio -1 3 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey -2 1 team
AGNOLI Valerio -15 3 teams


So our teams scores change by very little, and most not at all:
1 BluesInTheBottle 58
2 Josedin 42
3 Barmaher 16
3 Bbass 16
3 BicycleBoy 16
6 LightBing 15
7 Comodoro 10
7 JosephD 10
7 Rote_Laterne 10
7 Yellow_Knight 10
...
45 Fauniera -1
45 Leadbelly -1
45 NairoQ -1
48 Jancouver -2
49 Trudgin -14
50 Hakkie2 -15
50 JustSomeGuy -15

Even with such limited gains and losses, there is some significant (for now) change: the Four B's are now the top four, and Blues in the Bottle overhauls Bicycle Boy at the very top. Other than those changes, there is only one rise and one fall in the top 30. At the other end of the table, Ewan lifts Josedin enough to increase fivefold the number of teams below him.

1 BluesInTheBottle 1238
2 BicycleBoy 1206
3 Barmaher 1117
4 Bbass 935
5 GPBlanco 921
6 LightBing 916

Tomorrow will probably see at least one rider lose a lot of projected GC points, and a few others move up a bit to replace him, but who will the tumbler(s) be?

 

[JosephD]

Every GT he does, I pick Pelucchi for the game and every GT he disappoints. Probably not picking him for the Vuelta game if he rides, which will be the GT he wins a stage in knowing my luck…

Picked Landa in this game 2014 and 2016, both times he's been fairly awful or unlucky. Amador was also picked in 2014, left him off my team the two seasons he has looked good for GC :'(

At this stage I hope to not finish last. Porsev has been the best thing about my team and that says it all!

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 13 Into the Alps

Guaranteed points
Just enough survivors from the break to limit the points for the more popular riders contesting GC, and a new recipient of the 18 pink points.

NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 70pts 0 team
VISCONTI Giovanni 40pts 1 team
NIBALI Vincenzo 25pts 11 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 18pts 1 team
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 15pts 1 team
MAJKA Rafal 10pts 8 teams
DENIFL Stefan 7pts 0 team
KRUIJSWIJK Steven 5pts 9 teams
URAN URAN Rigoberto 3pts 28 teams
MONTAGUTI Matteo 2pts 0 team
POZZOVIVO Domenico 1pt 9 teams

1 Trudgin 40 (Visconti)
2= Comodoro, TomJelte 38 (Nibali, Majka and Uran)
4 18Valve 30 (Nibali and Kruijswijk)
5= AmisVelo, NairoQ, Search 28 (Landa and Uran)
8= Armchair_Cyclist, GeraintTooFast, Hugo87, JustSomeGuy, Rote_Laterne 25 (Nibali)
13 Jancouver 19
14 Kazistuta 18
15 GPBlanco 15
16 Vladimir 14
17= BluesInTheBottle, Torcia86 13
19= Laarsland, Scrool07 10
21 Del1962 9
22= BicycleBoy, DJW, Kabete, LightBing, SemirS 8
27 LosBrolin 6
28= Crevaison, JosephD, Murali 4
31 Uran fans 3
41 two Pozzovivo teams 1

GP standings
1 BluesInTheBottle 354
2 LightBing 284
3 Minessa 271
4 Fauniera 261
5 Yellow_Knight 259
6 Not_My_Circus 237
7 Mellow_Velo 232
8 Laarsland 230
8 Murrjt 230
10 Del1962 229


Projected Points
Not as much change as expected, but some movement towards what is probably expected to happen eventually (and some movement that will probablly be reversed eventually). The sprint for 3rd shakes the game up as much as anything today.

Rider changes:
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey +145 1 team
NIBALI Vincenzo +100 11 teams
VISCONTI Giovanni +100 1 team
URAN URAN Rigoberto +33 28 teams
FUGLSANG Jakob +23 4 teams
POZZOVIVO Domenico +17 9 teams
MAJKA Rafal +10 8 teams
BATTAGLIN Enrico +10 10 teams
...
WYSS Marcel -11 1 team
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos -12 1 team
RUFFONI Nicola -15 23 teams
EWAN Caleb -17 2 teams
KRUIJSWIJK Steven -20 9 teams
FIRSANOV Sergey -24 9 teams
PIRAZZI Stefano -28 10 teams
CICCONE Giulio -30 3 teams
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro -35 1 team
JUNGELS Bob -123 4 teams

Team point variations
1 AmisVelo 145
2 Comodoro 129
3 Jancouver 128
3 TomJelte 128
5 Search 118
6 Armchair_Cyclist 114
7 NairoQ 105
8 Trudgin 104
9 JustSomeGuy 102
10 GeraintTooFast 93
11 Rote_Laterne 84
12 Hugo87 77
13 Murali 75
14 Vladimir 68
15 18Valve 65
16 Minessa 49
17 Tigerion 47
18 GodChild 33
19 PremierAndrew 29
20 ArchieBoy 28
21 DJW 23
21 Kabete 23
21 Torcia86 23
24 JosephD 21
25 Crevaison 15
25 Not_My_Circus 15
27 Del1962 13
27 Hakkie2 13
29 Capt_Cavman 9
30 Scrool07 3
31 SemirS 2
32 LightBing 1
33 Laarsland -1
34 Yellow_Knight -7
35 Carlo_Algatrensig -9
36 Mellow_Velo -11
37 Murrjt -15
38 Kazistuta -17
39 LosBrolin -18
40 Joelsim -20
41 Caruut -25
42 GPBlanco -26
43 Postmanhat -32
44 Shalgo -37
45 Leadbelly -40
46 Josedin -45
47 Fauniera -54
48 BluesInTheBottle -97
49 Barmaher -125
50 BicycleBoy -134
51 Bbass -138
Collective_Wisdom 16

Projected standings:

Jungels hangs on to second place: three of his four Bs hang onto the virtual podium here. Comodoro, Murali and Tom-Jelte move into the top ten; AmisVelo, Trudgin, Geraint Toofast and Rote Laterne all move up ten places or more, while Fauniera suffers a double digit fall.

1 BluesInTheBottle 1141
2 BicycleBoy 1072
3 Barmaher 992
4 LightBing 917
5 GPBlanco 895
6 Jancouver 890
7 Comodoro 850
8 Murali 805
9 TomJelte 802
10 Bbass 797
11 Minessa 795
12 Not_My_Circus 780
13 Del1962 761
14 NairoQ 749
15 Search 728
16 18Valve 712
17 Torcia86 696
17 Vladimir 696
19 AmisVelo 686
19 Mellow_Velo 686
21 DJW 679
22 Scrool07 671
23 Crevaison 659
24 Kabete 648
25 Trudgin 607
26 LosBrolin 599
27 Yellow_Knight 575
28 SemirS 567
29 Kazistuta 550
30 Rote_Laterne 549
31 GeraintTooFast 548
32 Caruut 547
33 Laarsland 546
34 Capt_Cavman 540
34 Tigerion 540
36 Hakkie2 534
37 Postmanhat 529
38 Carlo_Algatrensig 527
39 Armchair_Cyclist 523
40 Hugo87 518
41 JustSomeGuy 497
42 Fauniera 482
43 ArchieBoy 474
44 Joelsim 469
45 Leadbelly 460
46 Murrjt 449
47 JosephD 434
48 Shalgo 428
49 PremierAndrew 417
50 Josedin 376
51 GodChild 373
Collective_Wisdom 437

 

[NairoQ]

I just now realised that TomJelte and Comodoro also have the combo Nibali-Uran (just complemented with Majka, which is why I didn't notice). Now I've almost given up all hope and I think Comodoro is going to win this edition.

 

[murali]

Ruffoni, who DNSed, was also a very popular pick.

People with all 9 riders in their team and their rank as of stage 13:
Barmaher at 3
Caruut at 32
Murali at 8

Today's stage is going to be the next big test as far as retirement goes. Let's all hope that no more popular picks retire.

Edit*

Spoke too early. With NIEMIEC also retiring, only my team retains all 9 riders.
Soon, everyone would have lost someone in their team.

 

[del1962]

9 of us with Kruijswijk

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 14 The Queen

Guaranteed Points
Some popular picks feature today

CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 70 2 teams
KRUIJSWIJK Steven 58 9 teams
PREIDLER Georg 25 0 team
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 15 13 teams
NIBALI Vincenzo 10 11 teams
SIUTSOU Kanstantsin 7 1 team
ZAKARIN Ilnur 5 16 teams
MAJKA Rafal 3 8 teams
URAN URAN Rigoberto 2 28 teams
POZZOVIVO Domenico 1 9 teams


Nearly everyone gets on the scoreboard today:
1 Postmanhat 85 (Chaves and Atapuma)
2= Kabete, SemirS 75 (Kruijswijk, Atapuma, Uran)
4 Caruut 71 (Chaves, Pozzovivo)
5 18Valve 68 (Kruijswijk, Nibali)
6 GPBlanco 66 (Kruijswijk, Majka, Zakarin)
7 LightBing 65 (Kruijswijk, Uran, Zakarin)
8 Del1962 61 (Kruijswijk, Uran, Pozzovivo)
9 BicycleBoy, DJW 60 (Kruijswijk, Uran)
11 LosBrolin 59 (Kruijswijk, Pozzovivo)
12= NairoQ, AmisVelo 27
14= GeraintTooFast, Armchair_Cyclist 25
16 Crevaison 23
17= Yellow_Knight, Shalgo 20
19 Laarsland 18
20= Rote_Laterne, Capt_Cavman, PremierAndrew 17
23= Comodoro, TomJelte 15
25 Search 12
26= Hugo87, JustSomeGuy 10
28= Murali, Scrool07 8
30 Barmaher, Minessa, Mellow_Velo, Hakkie2 7
34 Vladimir 6
35= BluesInTheBottle, Bbass, Torcia86, Trudgin, Carlo_Algatrensig, Joelsim, Leadbelly 5
42 JosephD 3
43= Not_My_Circus, Kazistuta, Tigerion, ArchieBoy, GodChild 2
48= Jancouver, Fauniera 1
50= Murrjt, Josedin 0
Collective_Wisdom 7

GP Standings
Becoming less significant, but becoming a two horse race.
1 BluesInTheBottle 359
2 LightBing 349
3 Del1962 290
4 DJW 285
5 Yellow_Knight 279
6 Minessa 278
7 Fauniera 262
8 BicycleBoy 251
9 Laarsland 248
10 Mellow_Velo 239
10 Not_My_Circus 239
12 Murrjt 230
12 Search 230
14 Capt_Cavman 229
15 Joelsim 224
16 Carlo_Algatrensig 219
17 Tigerion 179
18 Bbass 167
18 GPBlanco 167
20 SemirS 166
21 NairoQ 160
22 Kabete 154
23 Barmaher 153
24 18Valve 150
25 Trudgin 127
26 Postmanhat 124
27 Josedin 123
28 LosBrolin 117
29 Caruut 116
29 Jancouver 116
31 AmisVelo 113
32 Comodoro 109
32 Leadbelly 109
34 Rote_Laterne 106
35 Crevaison 105
36 Murali 104
36 Scrool07 104
38 PremierAndrew 102
39 Shalgo 101
40 Armchair_Cyclist 98
41 GeraintTooFast 97
42 TomJelte 77
43 ArchieBoy 69
44 GodChild 65
45 Kazistuta 62
46 Hakkie2 60
47 Hugo87 57
48 JustSomeGuy 55
49 JosephD 52
50 Vladimir 42
51 Torcia86 36
Collective_Wisdom 59

Rider point changes:
We might be approaching something akin to final standings: there will probably be some riders with significant swings, but not as many as today.
KRUIJSWIJK Steven +318 9 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban +220 2 teams
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin +80 13 teams
SIUTSOU Kanstantsin +78 1 team
NIBALI Vincenzo +70 11 teams
PIRAZZI Stefano +27 10 teams
MONFORT Maxime +24 1 team
DUPONT Hubert +18 1 team
URAN URAN Rigoberto +17 28 teams
HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian +16 2 teams
...
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor -10 5 teams
NIEMIEC Przemyslaw -15 15 teams
BERLATO Giacomo -15 1 team
FIRSANOV Sergey -16 9 teams
FORMOLO Davide -22 8 teams
VISCONTI Giovanni -45 1 team
HESJEDAL Ryder -96 9 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey -258 1 team
JUNGELS Bob -262 4 teams


Some will be feeling far better about their teams tonight:

1 SemirS 400
2 Kabete 393
3 18Valve 388
4 GPBlanco 361
5 Del1962 344
5 LightBing 344
7 DJW 343
8 Postmanhat 255
9 Caruut 233
10 LosBrolin 209
11 AmisVelo 160
12 GeraintTooFast 153
13 Rote_Laterne 149
14 NairoQ 147
15 Armchair_Cyclist 143
16 Capt_Cavman 124
17 Yellow_Knight 92
18 Comodoro 91
19 TomJelte 90
20 Crevaison 80
21 Search 72
22 Shalgo 70
23 Laarsland 69
24 Hakkie2 57
25 JosephD 54
26 JustSomeGuy 45
27 BicycleBoy 42
28 Minessa 30
29 ArchieBoy 29
30 Vladimir 25
31 Murali 21
32 Murrjt 13
33 Mellow_Velo 6
34 Joelsim 5
35 Kazistuta 2
36 PremierAndrew 1
36 Tigerion 1
38 Fauniera -13
39 Carlo_Algatrensig -17
40 Scrool07 -24
41 Hugo87 -26
42 Trudgin -34
43 Torcia86 -63
44 GodChild -71
45 Josedin -96
46 Leadbelly -112
47 Not_My_Circus -117
48 Jancouver -216
49 BluesInTheBottle -242
50 Bbass -257
51 Barmaher -284
Collective_Wisdom 7


Is this potentially similar to what we can expect this time next week?
1 LightBing 1261
2 GPBlanco 1256
3 BicycleBoy 1114
4 Del1962 1105
5 18Valve 1100
6 Kabete 1041
7 DJW 1022
8 SemirS 967
9 Comodoro 941
10 BluesInTheBottle 899
11 NairoQ 896
12 TomJelte 892
13 AmisVelo 846
14 Murali 826
15 Minessa 825
16 LosBrolin 808
17 Search 800
18 Postmanhat 784
19 Caruut 780
20 Crevaison 739
21 Vladimir 721
22 Barmaher 708
23 GeraintTooFast 701
24 Rote_Laterne 698
25 Mellow_Velo 692
26 Jancouver 674
27 Yellow_Knight 667
28 Armchair_Cyclist 666
29 Capt_Cavman 664
30 Not_My_Circus 663
31 Scrool07 647
32 Torcia86 633
33 Laarsland 615
34 Hakkie2 591
35 Trudgin 573
36 Kazistuta 552
37 JustSomeGuy 542
38 Tigerion 541
39 Bbass 540
40 Carlo_Algatrensig 510
41 ArchieBoy 503
42 Shalgo 498
43 Hugo87 492
44 JosephD 488
45 Joelsim 474
46 Fauniera 469
47 Murrjt 462
48 PremierAndrew 418
49 Leadbelly 348
50 GodChild 302
51 Josedin 280
Collective_Wisdom 444

Yesterday's leader, Blues in the Bottle, falls to tenth, but Bicycle Boy, having Kruijswijk, survives the loss of Jungels' points rather better, holding on for third. LightBing and GPBlanco, the new top two, were already best positioned for any Jungels fall, but the new members of the top ten (18Valve, Kabete, DJW and SemirS) have moved up by between 11 and 20 places. Poor B'bass was 4th two days ago, now languishing in 39th place.

 

[SemirS]

Really hoping for a top 10 finish at the end, but wouldn't be disappointed with a top 20 after losing Landa, Geniez, Peraud, Niemiec and Ruffoni.

Has anyone lost 6 or more riders?