2016 TdF, Stage 12: Montpellier → Mont Ventoux (178km)

[DNP-Old]

Rumor has it the Ventoux will be shortened due to heavy wind and the finish will be at Chalet Reynard, which is about halfway up the Ventoux. Only one source saying this thus far, so not sure if true.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

The problem for Quintana is that there are 54k of TT to come. We're it not for the fact that the first tt is hilly and the second a mountain which plays to his strengths I think he would go all out on Ventoux.

As it stands, even though the TT parcours are the best he could hope for it will still be a question of limiting losses to Froome. Therefore, I expect him to be glued to Froome's wheel up the Ventoux, but I'm not expecting fireworks. I think those will come in the Alps.

Quintana can expect to lose about a minute and a half in the hilly 38k TT. It is very very similar to the TT where he finished 6th in the Vuelta last year, 1'33 behind on Dumoulin, 25 down on Valverde and just 2 seconds down on world champion in waiting Kiri.

Froome is targetting Rio time trial, so should be expected to perform very very well, but Quintana will also have improved his TTing since last year given the increase in TT milage this year.

As for the mountain TT, there's 4km of flat and 2.5km of descent which pushes the balance in favour of Froome slightly, but they should both put in similar times.

So Quintana basically needs to gain about 2 minutes on Froome in the remaining mountains if he wants to win the Tour.

 

[deValtos]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 12: Montpellier → Mont Ventoux (184km)

Restday -> Flat stage -> Flat stage -> Flat run up to Ventoux

This should favour Froome. If Quintana gets dropped at any point he could lose a ton of time as the wind won't favour light riders (unless its a tail wind.)

 

[AlexNYC]

Re:

Rumor has it the Ventoux will be shortened due to heavy wind and the finish will be at Chalet Reynard, which is about halfway up the Ventoux. Only one source saying this thus far, so not sure if true.

Where did you read this?

 

[staubsauger]

This should favor Fabio Aru more than anybody else. Especially with the forecasted heat. If he ain't got the legs tomorrow, I believe Aru's just gonna hit his prime shape for the Vuelta and the Italian fall classics. Maybe a tiny peak for the Olympics as well. To be honest imho that scenario is likely to become simple truth now already. He just misses too much race rhythm!

 

[AlexNYC]

Quintana wants this stage, but his strategy is to go all out in the alps. He will only attack in the last mile if the stage is still up for grabs, otherwise, he'll be content to arrive with Froome.

Someone like Porte, Aru, Martin, or even Pinot if he has gotten a lot better, could take this if Froome doesn't try a major attack.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

If Quintana wants to win the Tour he has to drop Froome here, or at least not concede any time.

I think so as the TTs should favour Froome although one looks pretty good for Quintana.

 

[Arredondo]

Quintana to destroy Froome

 

[DNP-Old]

Re: Re:

Rumor has it the Ventoux will be shortened due to heavy wind and the finish will be at Chalet Reynard, which is about halfway up the Ventoux. Only one source saying this thus far, so not sure if true.

Where did you read this?

Dutch commentator reported it.

 

[classicomano]

Re:

Rumor has it the Ventoux will be shortened due to heavy wind and the finish will be at Chalet Reynard, which is about halfway up the Ventoux. Only one source saying this thus far, so not sure if true.

Cancellara and Tony Martin rumoured to be up in arms demanding the entire Ventoux to be scrapped and the rest of the mountain stages neutralized.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

That would be good for Quintana.

 

[CTQ]

from journalist at RTL:
https://twitter.com/ngeorgereau/status/753185926772363264

bursts 100-110 kmh on Ventoux

 

[fantomas]

ASO has confirmed they might cut the stage and move the finishing line to either Chalet Reynard or all the way to the bottom. Bursts of wind up to 100 km/h. They'll decide today or at the latest tomorrow morning at 4 am.

Source: Dennis Ritter from Danish TV2 just talked to some guy form ASO.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

The problem for Quintana is that there are 54k of TT to come. We're it not for the fact that the first tt is hilly and the second a mountain which plays to his strengths I think he would go all out on Ventoux.

As it stands, even though the TT parcours are the best he could hope for it will still be a question of limiting losses to Froome. Therefore, I expect him to be glued to Froome's wheel up the Ventoux, but I'm not expecting fireworks. I think those will come in the Alps.

Quintana can expect to lose about a minute and a half in the hilly 38k TT. It is very very similar to the TT where he finished 6th in the Vuelta last year, 1'33 behind on Dumoulin, 25 down on Valverde and just 2 seconds down on world champion in waiting Kiri.

Froome is targetting Rio time trial, so should be expected to perform very very well, but Quintana will also have improved his TTing since last year given the increase in TT milage this year.

As for the mountain TT, there's 4km of flat and 2.5km of descent which pushes the balance in favour of Froome slightly, but they should both put in similar times.

So Quintana basically needs to gain about 2 minutes on Froome in the remaining mountains if he wants to win the Tour.

In the Mountain TT there are:
7 km flat
2km descent
3km at 4.5 %
3km at 8%
2km at 10.5%


If they finish about the same time, roughly it means the gained time in the last (mentioned) 5 km balances the lost time in the first (mentioned) 12 km.
Froome has to be worse than last years final week and Quintana a bit better for that to happen IMO

 

[Isaak-Gabriel]

Re:

That would be good for Quintana.

Not sure, less km in uphill is a disadvantage for Quintana if we consider his level now, like the hypothetical removal of the col de la Ramaz on stage 20.

 

[Carols]

Re:

ASO has confirmed they might cut the stage and move the finishing line to either Chalet Reynard or all the way to the bottom. Bursts of wind up to 100 km/h. They'll decide today or at the latest tomorrow morning at 4 am.

Source: Dennis Ritter from Danish TV2 just talked to some guy form ASO.

Hopefully the weather forecasts are incorrect, they often are!

 

[vedrafjord]

Re:

ASO has confirmed they might cut the stage and move the finishing line to either Chalet Reynard or all the way to the bottom. Bursts of wind up to 100 km/h. They'll decide today or at the latest tomorrow morning at 4 am.

Source: Dennis Ritter from Danish TV2 just talked to some guy form ASO.

I wonder will they take into account the considerable sheltering effect of all the fans and campervans lining the road in the exposed section.

 

[staubsauger]

Re: Re:

ASO has confirmed they might cut the stage and move the finishing line to either Chalet Reynard or all the way to the bottom. Bursts of wind up to 100 km/h. They'll decide today or at the latest tomorrow morning at 4 am.

Source: Dennis Ritter from Danish TV2 just talked to some guy form ASO.

Hopefully the weather forecasts are incorrect, they often are!

They seem to change each day as well. At least here on German RTL!

 

[dacooley]

Re:

Quintana to destroy Froome

by two and a half minutes.

 

[Red Rick]

Well it seems that the Ventoux is truly honoring its name

 

[saganftw]

this is shaping up to be the most dissapointing stage in 2016 if they shorten it

 

[CTQ]

https://twitter.com/MRasmussen1974/status/753207010758389760


8 degrees and crazy winds on top of this little hill today. People were litterally blowing off the road

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re: Re:

ASO has confirmed they might cut the stage and move the finishing line to either Chalet Reynard or all the way to the bottom. Bursts of wind up to 100 km/h. They'll decide today or at the latest tomorrow morning at 4 am.

Source: Dennis Ritter from Danish TV2 just talked to some guy form ASO.

I wonder will they take into account the considerable sheltering effect of all the fans and campervans lining the road in the exposed section.

In not sure I'd want to be in a camper van on the side of a mountain whilst the wind gusts over 100kph, already reports that people are literally being blown over its that strong.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

this is shaping up to be the most dissapointing stage in 2016 if they shorten it

It's still 9.7km at 9.1% if it gets shortened to Chalet Reynard, which is hardly an easy summit finish, and just shy of HC cateogrisation

 

[deValtos]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 12: Montpellier → Mont Ventoux (184km)

Does anyone know if the strong winds carry over to the TT?

And would that be cross/tail/head wind?