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2016 TdF, Stage 12: Montpellier → Mont Ventoux (178km)

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Re:

kwikki said:
The problem for Quintana is that there are 54k of TT to come. We're it not for the fact that the first tt is hilly and the second a mountain which plays to his strengths I think he would go all out on Ventoux.

As it stands, even though the TT parcours are the best he could hope for it will still be a question of limiting losses to Froome. Therefore, I expect him to be glued to Froome's wheel up the Ventoux, but I'm not expecting fireworks. I think those will come in the Alps.

Quintana can expect to lose about a minute and a half in the hilly 38k TT. It is very very similar to the TT where he finished 6th in the Vuelta last year, 1'33 behind on Dumoulin, 25 down on Valverde and just 2 seconds down on world champion in waiting Kiri.

Froome is targetting Rio time trial, so should be expected to perform very very well, but Quintana will also have improved his TTing since last year given the increase in TT milage this year.

As for the mountain TT, there's 4km of flat and 2.5km of descent which pushes the balance in favour of Froome slightly, but they should both put in similar times.

So Quintana basically needs to gain about 2 minutes on Froome in the remaining mountains if he wants to win the Tour.
 
Nov 29, 2010
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Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 12: Montpellier → Mont Ventoux (184km)

Restday -> Flat stage -> Flat stage -> Flat run up to Ventoux

This should favour Froome. If Quintana gets dropped at any point he could lose a ton of time as the wind won't favour light riders (unless its a tail wind.)
 
This should favor Fabio Aru more than anybody else. Especially with the forecasted heat. If he ain't got the legs tomorrow, I believe Aru's just gonna hit his prime shape for the Vuelta and the Italian fall classics. Maybe a tiny peak for the Olympics as well. To be honest imho that scenario is likely to become simple truth now already. He just misses too much race rhythm!
 
Quintana wants this stage, but his strategy is to go all out in the alps. He will only attack in the last mile if the stage is still up for grabs, otherwise, he'll be content to arrive with Froome.

Someone like Porte, Aru, Martin, or even Pinot if he has gotten a lot better, could take this if Froome doesn't try a major attack.
 
Re:

DNP-Old said:
Rumor has it the Ventoux will be shortened due to heavy wind and the finish will be at Chalet Reynard, which is about halfway up the Ventoux. Only one source saying this thus far, so not sure if true.
Cancellara and Tony Martin rumoured to be up in arms demanding the entire Ventoux to be scrapped and the rest of the mountain stages neutralized.
 
ASO has confirmed they might cut the stage and move the finishing line to either Chalet Reynard or all the way to the bottom. Bursts of wind up to 100 km/h. They'll decide today or at the latest tomorrow morning at 4 am.

Source: Dennis Ritter from Danish TV2 just talked to some guy form ASO.
 
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Re: Re:

PremierAndrew said:
kwikki said:
The problem for Quintana is that there are 54k of TT to come. We're it not for the fact that the first tt is hilly and the second a mountain which plays to his strengths I think he would go all out on Ventoux.

As it stands, even though the TT parcours are the best he could hope for it will still be a question of limiting losses to Froome. Therefore, I expect him to be glued to Froome's wheel up the Ventoux, but I'm not expecting fireworks. I think those will come in the Alps.

Quintana can expect to lose about a minute and a half in the hilly 38k TT. It is very very similar to the TT where he finished 6th in the Vuelta last year, 1'33 behind on Dumoulin, 25 down on Valverde and just 2 seconds down on world champion in waiting Kiri.

Froome is targetting Rio time trial, so should be expected to perform very very well, but Quintana will also have improved his TTing since last year given the increase in TT milage this year.

As for the mountain TT, there's 4km of flat and 2.5km of descent which pushes the balance in favour of Froome slightly, but they should both put in similar times.

So Quintana basically needs to gain about 2 minutes on Froome in the remaining mountains if he wants to win the Tour.

In the Mountain TT there are:
7 km flat
2km descent
3km at 4.5 %
3km at 8%
2km at 10.5%


If they finish about the same time, roughly it means the gained time in the last (mentioned) 5 km balances the lost time in the first (mentioned) 12 km.
Froome has to be worse than last years final week and Quintana a bit better for that to happen IMO
 
Re:

fantomas said:
ASO has confirmed they might cut the stage and move the finishing line to either Chalet Reynard or all the way to the bottom. Bursts of wind up to 100 km/h. They'll decide today or at the latest tomorrow morning at 4 am.

Source: Dennis Ritter from Danish TV2 just talked to some guy form ASO.

:( Hopefully the weather forecasts are incorrect, they often are!
 
Re:

fantomas said:
ASO has confirmed they might cut the stage and move the finishing line to either Chalet Reynard or all the way to the bottom. Bursts of wind up to 100 km/h. They'll decide today or at the latest tomorrow morning at 4 am.

Source: Dennis Ritter from Danish TV2 just talked to some guy form ASO.

I wonder will they take into account the considerable sheltering effect of all the fans and campervans lining the road in the exposed section.
 
Re: Re:

Carols said:
fantomas said:
ASO has confirmed they might cut the stage and move the finishing line to either Chalet Reynard or all the way to the bottom. Bursts of wind up to 100 km/h. They'll decide today or at the latest tomorrow morning at 4 am.

Source: Dennis Ritter from Danish TV2 just talked to some guy form ASO.

:( Hopefully the weather forecasts are incorrect, they often are!
They seem to change each day as well. At least here on German RTL! :( :D
 
Re: Re:

vedrafjord said:
fantomas said:
ASO has confirmed they might cut the stage and move the finishing line to either Chalet Reynard or all the way to the bottom. Bursts of wind up to 100 km/h. They'll decide today or at the latest tomorrow morning at 4 am.

Source: Dennis Ritter from Danish TV2 just talked to some guy form ASO.

I wonder will they take into account the considerable sheltering effect of all the fans and campervans lining the road in the exposed section.

In not sure I'd want to be in a camper van on the side of a mountain whilst the wind gusts over 100kph, already reports that people are literally being blown over its that strong.
 
Nov 29, 2010
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Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 12: Montpellier → Mont Ventoux (184km)

Does anyone know if the strong winds carry over to the TT?

And would that be cross/tail/head wind?
 

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