2016 TdF, Stage 12: Montpellier → Mont Ventoux (178km)

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

It may be a silly question, but couldn't they wait until tomorrow to decide? I mean, the finish of the Plan de Corones stage of 2006 was moved tu Passo Furcia just a couple of hours before the end of the race, same for the 1995 Giro and the Chianale stage (originally set to finish in Briançon).

Guess with how large the Tour is and all the equipment they have to set up they couldn't just decide a few hours before the start, it's the Tour afterall and the caravan and stage finish sites are massive

Spectators wouldn't argue if there wasn't inflatable spider.
Journalists can stay in their tents at Chalet Reynard, as well as heavy equipment.
Podium can be arranged in half an hour.

It would assume by your reply you are doubting the decision to foreshorten the stage. FFS - there's 100km per hour winds forecast and you want them to carry on as if it's a gentle breeze.

There's peoples lives at serious risk; there'll be high-sided vehicles a plenty not to mention the infrastructure involved. The Highways Agency close bridges with winds up 50km p/h - they're due to be double that tomorrow and you want everything to take place regardless?

Calm down.
Do I have to underline crucial parts of my response?
They should wait until the point of organisational limit. Two hours before the cyclists arrive to Bedoin, I presume.

 

[RattaKuningas]

I previously said that Quintana will win it but I don't think that neither Froome or Quintana will win it tomorrow because I am afraid that they will be looking at each other. I'm picking Porte for tomorrow.

 

[Arredondo]

Quintana should test Froome for the first time. He needs to find his attacking spirit before the Alps.

 

[London Hibs]

Re:

@London Hibs:
No, he wants them to wait until tomorrow to see if there's any changes in the wind. It's a pretty reasonable opinion to hold.

OK - I read it wrong - but given the logistics involved, waiting until the morning isn't really a viable option.

The forecasters will be pretty much spot-on and simply piddling about until tomorrow morning to announce the inevitable isn't prudent given what has to be done. At least an early cancellation allows a Plan B to be put in place and (hopefully) keeps everyone safe.

100km p/h winds is a recipe for disaster and while I'm gutted it'll spoil what could be one of the iconic stages of this years race, common sense seems to have come to the fore.

 

[rghysens]

Froome to triple his lead ver Quintana.

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re:

Froome to triple his lead ver Quintana.

Impossible unless Quintana is behind when the climb starts.

 

[Arredondo]

We will not be able to see the making of possible echelons, given the fact they will only broadcast the last 100/90 kilometers

 

[LeSensei]

Quintana doesn't have the acceleration to drop anyone. Not in a one-climb stage. Froome just has to follow tomorrow and blast him the next day. Although knowing Quintana and Movistar, Froome might just as well attack by elimination.

 

[Red Rick]

Quintana can accelerate quite violently if he actually goes all out. Shorter climb favours Froome though, this is perfect for him.

Will the climb be HC or cat 1 now?

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re:

Quintana can accelerate quite violently if he actually goes all out. Shorter climb favours Froome though, this is perfect for him.

Will the climb be HC or cat 1 now?

Taking into consideration that he said that he had been specially training to respond to Froome attacks one might assume that he might have a very good acceleration.

 

[phanatic]

Re: Re:

Quintana will do like Contador Vuelta 2014, follow every Froome attack and drop him in last 0.5-1K.

Makes no sense. Froome doesn't have to attack, he's not that stupid. He might do one attack but he won't go all out like he did in that vuelta.

Then he had no choice but to do it, now he's in a perfect position, especially with the ITT on friday

And quintana prob won't even attack tomorrow knowing him.

Does he know this?

 

[Cookster15]

I'm concerned the shortened stage suits Sky. That's 6 less kilometres for Movistar to wear them down. Froome can sit on his team-mates wheels and have plenty of gas at the end to counter anything Quintana might try on the ramps below Chalet Reynard. Pity the weather appears to have played into Froome's hands as someone else wrote could the organisers have waited until 2 hours before the start to make this decision?

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re:

I'm concerned the shortened stage suits Sky. That's 6 less kilometres for Movistar to wear them down. Froome can sit on his team-mates wheels and have plenty of gas at the end to counter anything Quintana might try on the ramps below Chalet Reynard. Pity the weather appears to have played into Froome's hands as someone else wrote could the organisers have waited until 2 hours before the start to make this decision?

Movistar can do something if Valverde will fully commit.

 

[MatParker117]

Re:

I'm concerned the shortened stage suits Sky. That's 6 less kilometres for Movistar to wear them down. Froome can sit on his team-mates wheels and have plenty of gas at the end to counter anything Quintana might try on the ramps below Chalet Reynard. Pity the weather appears to have played into Froome's hands as someone else wrote could the organisers have waited until 2 hours before the start to make this decision?

You do know this stage design suits Sky to a tee? Have G, Landa, Poels, Nieve and Henao put everyone in the red and then Froome ignites the afterburners and then a minute later everyone else finishes, we've seen it so many times.

 

[chamber34]

Rolland at 80/1 is my tip.

 

[The Barb]

Anyone know what this means for the mountain points? Still an HC?

 

[May0maniac]

Probably the right thing to do, Chalet Reynard is still a hard climb and probably the safest option.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

I'm concerned the shortened stage suits Sky. That's 6 less kilometres for Movistar to wear them down. Froome can sit on his team-mates wheels and have plenty of gas at the end to counter anything Quintana might try on the ramps below Chalet Reynard. Pity the weather appears to have played into Froome's hands as someone else wrote could the organisers have waited until 2 hours before the start to make this decision?

Movistar can do something if Valverde will fully commit.

If you think Valverde (with the Giro in his legs) in "fully commit" mode will be stronger than Henao, you are wrong.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

Quintana can accelerate quite violently if he actually goes all out. Shorter climb favours Froome though, this is perfect for him.

Will the climb be HC or cat 1 now?

Taking into consideration that he said that he had been specially training to respond to Froome attacks one might assume that he might have a very good acceleration.

And Nibali and Slongo were all about moto pacing and simulating Froome accelerations in 2014.
We saw what happened in 2015.

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: Re:

I'm concerned the shortened stage suits Sky. That's 6 less kilometres for Movistar to wear them down. Froome can sit on his team-mates wheels and have plenty of gas at the end to counter anything Quintana might try on the ramps below Chalet Reynard. Pity the weather appears to have played into Froome's hands as someone else wrote could the organisers have waited until 2 hours before the start to make this decision?

Movistar can do something if Valverde will fully commit.

If you think Valverde (with the Giro in his legs) in "fully commit" mode will be stronger than Henao, you are wrong.

But what is Henao going to do when Quintana attacks?

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

I'm concerned the shortened stage suits Sky. That's 6 less kilometres for Movistar to wear them down. Froome can sit on his team-mates wheels and have plenty of gas at the end to counter anything Quintana might try on the ramps below Chalet Reynard. Pity the weather appears to have played into Froome's hands as someone else wrote could the organisers have waited until 2 hours before the start to make this decision?

Movistar can do something if Valverde will fully commit.

If you think Valverde (with the Giro in his legs) in "fully commit" mode will be stronger than Henao, you are wrong.

But what is Henao going to do when Quintana attacks?

And what will Valverde do when Quintana attacks.

Let's make this a bit constructive. How do you think Valverde will help Quintana? Elaborate on a possible scenario please.

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: Re:

I'm concerned the shortened stage suits Sky. That's 6 less kilometres for Movistar to wear them down. Froome can sit on his team-mates wheels and have plenty of gas at the end to counter anything Quintana might try on the ramps below Chalet Reynard. Pity the weather appears to have played into Froome's hands as someone else wrote could the organisers have waited until 2 hours before the start to make this decision?

Movistar can do something if Valverde will fully commit.

If you think Valverde (with the Giro in his legs) in "fully commit" mode will be stronger than Henao, you are wrong.

But what is Henao going to do when Quintana attacks?

And what will Valverde do when Quintana attacks.

Let's make this a bit constructive. How do you think Valverde will help Quintana? Elaborate on a possible scenario please.

I think that if Quintana wants to attack Movistar has to initate tomorrow. They have to assemble their train and ride as hard pace as possible into the mountain and when all riders besides Valverde and Quintana are spent Valverde just has to push as fast as possible without thinking about his own chances. This should destroy Sky train and even when Henao is with Froome it doesn't matter much.
When Quintana attacks and Henao responds (domestiques don't have to worry so much about pacing) then Quintana shouldn't care and just keep riding. When Henao is with Quintana and not with Froome then Froome is still isolated. Henao wheelsucking Quintana isn't going to make Quintana any slower but I doubt Henao can do it very long. He wasn't that impressive on Arcalis.

But if Froome is stronger than Quintana then all of this doesn't matter.

 

[doperhopper]

get ready for Pierre St. Ventoux tomorrow... vrooooom!

 

[Ramon Koran]

Anyone know what this means for the mountain points? Still an HC?

It becomes a cat 1, so only 20 points on offer which is ridiculours it's a far harder climb than arcalis

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

[quote="

Movistar can do something if Valverde will fully commit.

If you think Valverde (with the Giro in his legs) in "fully commit" mode will be stronger than Henao, you are wrong.

But what is Henao going to do when Quintana attacks?

And what will Valverde do when Quintana attacks.

Let's make this a bit constructive. How do you think Valverde will help Quintana? Elaborate on a possible scenario please.

I think that if Quintana wants to attack Movistar has to initate tomorrow. They have to assemble their train and ride as hard pace as possible into the mountain and when all riders besides Valverde and Quintana are spent Valverde just has to push as fast as possible without thinking about his own chances. This should destroy Sky train and even when Henao is with Froome it doesn't matter much.
When Quintana attacks and Henao responds (domestiques don't have to worry so much about pacing) then Quintana shouldn't care and just keep riding. When Henao is with Quintana and not with Froome then Froome is still isolated. Henao wheelsucking Quintana isn't going to make Quintana any slower but I doubt Henao can do it very long. He wasn't that impressive on Arcalis.

But if Froome is stronger than Quintana then all of this doesn't matter.

Firstly: You mention Valverde being a crucial factor but you mention him only once. Afterwards its Quintana..Quintana..
Secondly: When Valverde will be done, Sky train will not be destroyed. There will be at least Henao and Froome.

Arcalis results:

10YATESAdamORICA-BikeExchange 6:35
11FROOMEChristopherTeam Sky ,,
12QUINTANANairoMovistar Team ,,
13PORTERichieBMC Racing Team 6:37
14MARTINDanielEtixx - Quick Step ,,
15HERRADAJesúsMovistar Team ,,
16HENAOSergio LuisTeam Sky 6:56
17BARDETRomainAG2R La Mondiale ,,
18MOLLEMABaukeTrek - Segafredo ,,
19MEINTJESLouisLampre - Merida ,,
20RODRÍGUEZJoaquimTeam Katusha ,,
21VAN GARDERENTejayBMC Racing Team 7:13
22KREUZIGERRomanTinkoff 7:17
23VALVERDEAlejandroMovistar Team ,,


A pleasure talking to you