2016 TdF, Stage 19: Albertville → Mont Blanc (146km)

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Rosa to do another audition for his new role as yet another super domestique for Sky. Aru to launch an attack with Porte and Froome the only ones to respond. Attack to be late on again and time gaps too small to change key places.
 
Jul 21, 2016
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Hi, let me say hello first. I'm new to this site, and admit I likely have a scant k owl edge of the UCI tour compared to almost everyone here. but I ha e paid attention to it for a few years and enjoy the grand tours and well as the pro cycling manager games since about 2013.

As for tommorrow, I sometimes have a little bet, and last year won a nice return on my usual quid bet once and almost twice. My question is will the breakaway work. I think it should. My reasoning the teams with riders in the top ten gc will mark each other and stop any movement especially early on. But this is hard long term and they wo t want to blow out doing this all the time, rather choose tactically. With stages running out what about a team without a stage win persistently trying to get guys into a break away, and there are some who can make it work to the line. The odds are crazy high on non favourites as such I'm tempted to have a pop on a Frenchman to win in a breakaway...
My two candidates are Artur Vichot and Jeremy Roy...

What does everyone think, your ideas are more than welcome, thanks and enjoy the rest of the tour.
 
Jul 4, 2011
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Re: Re:

Ataraxus said:
Pricey_sky said:
Accuweather (the one weather page I trust) says it's going to be partly cloudy in 4 & 5 PM
You mean this weather forecast that is predicting thunderstorms and rain ?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/chamonix/136573/hourly-weather-forecast/136573?hour=33
 
If Astana can't get over Sky than Porte and Froome will put 30 seconds into everyone else. Might depend how strong Sky are. The Sky doms will have measured their efforts in the TT to conserve energy for this stage:-

Thomas +2.09
Nieve +2.25
Landa +2.28
Hanao +2.50
Poels +3.07
Rowe +4.45
Kiryienka +5.08
Stannard +5.36
 
Aug 31, 2012
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Mollema vs Yates vs Quintana vs Bardet vs Porte vs Aru could be an intriguing battle for 2nd and 3rd if it weren't for *** Poels hammering a 6w/kg pace all the way to the finish.

Froome should go full genius from 10km out like Nibali did at Hautacam. And order Poels to back off.
 
I really doubt the break will succeed. There are such small gaps between places 2-6 that bonus seconds could be crucial. With Aru seemingly improving while others decline, Astana should chase hard and may get help (to the extent that they can) from BMC.

I could see Froome breaking clear with only Porte following. Froome then doing all the work to help Porte gain as much time as possible, and gifting him the win.
 
Akabusi said:
Hi, let me say hello first. I'm new to this site, and admit I likely have a scant k owl edge of the UCI tour compared to almost everyone here. but I ha e paid attention to it for a few years and enjoy the grand tours and well as the pro cycling manager games since about 2013.

As for tommorrow, I sometimes have a little bet, and last year won a nice return on my usual quid bet once and almost twice. My question is will the breakaway work. I think it should. My reasoning the teams with riders in the top ten gc will mark each other and stop any movement especially early on. But this is hard long term and they wo t want to blow out doing this all the time, rather choose tactically. With stages running out what about a team without a stage win persistently trying to get guys into a break away, and there are some who can make it work to the line. The odds are crazy high on non favourites as such I'm tempted to have a pop on a Frenchman to win in a breakaway...
My two candidates are Artur Vichot and Jeremy Roy...

What does everyone think, your ideas are more than welcome, thanks and enjoy the rest of the tour.
I would go with Alexis Vuillermoz. Those two have no chance.
 
Apr 7, 2015
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Predicting the weather in this part of the alps is not easy at this time of the year but more often than not the thunderstorms never happen and the rainfall is swift.
 
Jul 12, 2013
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Re: Re:

Fight.The.Power said:
Ataraxus said:
Pricey_sky said:
Accuweather (the one weather page I trust) says it's going to be partly cloudy in 4 & 5 PM
You mean this weather forecast that is predicting thunderstorms and rain ?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/chamonix/136573/hourly-weather-forecast/136573?hour=33

They aren't going to be in Chamonix in 3:00 PM are they ;)
Plus. 47% chance of rain isn't that high of a probability to hype things up.
 
Jul 21, 2016
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Thanks I'll look at that... In ref to the barb as well, what motive do Astana and Bmc et all, have i. Chasing breaks from people who are one to two hours down in the gc? Surely it's a waste of energy that plays into sky's hands as well as more savvy gc teams who don't.
 
Apr 21, 2012
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Akabusi said:
Hi, let me say hello first. I'm new to this site, and admit I likely have a scant k owl edge of the UCI tour compared to almost everyone here. but I ha e paid attention to it for a few years and enjoy the grand tours and well as the pro cycling manager games since about 2013.

As for tommorrow, I sometimes have a little bet, and last year won a nice return on my usual quid bet once and almost twice. My question is will the breakaway work. I think it should. My reasoning the teams with riders in the top ten gc will mark each other and stop any movement especially early on. But this is hard long term and they wo t want to blow out doing this all the time, rather choose tactically. With stages running out what about a team without a stage win persistently trying to get guys into a break away, and there are some who can make it work to the line. The odds are crazy high on non favourites as such I'm tempted to have a pop on a Frenchman to win in a breakaway...
My two candidates are Artur Vichot and Jeremy Roy...
What does everyone think, your ideas are more than welcome, thanks and enjoy the rest of the tour.
If the break survives then there are quite a few usual suspects...Zakarin-Pantano-Majka....i am looking at Durasek and Cummings for some decent value....if the GC battle it out then Aru to take the stage
 
ciranda said:
Akabusi said:
Hi, let me say hello first. I'm new to this site, and admit I likely have a scant k owl edge of the UCI tour compared to almost everyone here. but I ha e paid attention to it for a few years and enjoy the grand tours and well as the pro cycling manager games since about 2013.

As for tommorrow, I sometimes have a little bet, and last year won a nice return on my usual quid bet once and almost twice. My question is will the breakaway work. I think it should. My reasoning the teams with riders in the top ten gc will mark each other and stop any movement especially early on. But this is hard long term and they wo t want to blow out doing this all the time, rather choose tactically. With stages running out what about a team without a stage win persistently trying to get guys into a break away, and there are some who can make it work to the line. The odds are crazy high on non favourites as such I'm tempted to have a pop on a Frenchman to win in a breakaway...
My two candidates are Artur Vichot and Jeremy Roy...

What does everyone think, your ideas are more than welcome, thanks and enjoy the rest of the tour.
I would go with Alexis Vuillermoz. Those two have no chance.
Alaphilippe is looking strong and still seems angry at that mechanical that cost him the stage win the other day.

Some steep sections for him to get away on too and a short stage. Might be ideal for him, although he's no pure climber so might struggle against the likes of Majka.

I'd love it if Alaphilippe could bag a stage win and Bardet can launch an attack on Saturday to get himself on the podium. I'm English myself, but always have a soft spot for the Frenchies.
 
Re:

Akabusi said:
Thanks I'll look at that... In ref to the barb as well, what motive do Astana and Bmc et all, have i. Chasing breaks from people who are one to two hours down in the gc? Surely it's a waste of energy that plays into sky's hands as well as more savvy gc teams who don't.
It's not about playing into Froome's hands because Sky is no longer the rival. Three motives for teams like Astana and BMC to chase the break hard:

1. A stage win. This has been a particularly bleak Tour for Astana but a stage win in the Alps would salvage something for them from it. Porte has also spoken about how meaningful a stage win would be for him and this is as good a chance as he will ever get (with Froome now less motivated and him appearing the strongest of the remainder).

2. Bonus seconds. Time gaps are so tight amongst the podium contenders that 10 seconds of bonus time could be important, especially for Porte.

3. A hard stage will increase the vulnerability of podium contenders who appear to be weakening, like Mollema.
 
Jun 13, 2016
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I have an uncle that thinks that he knows the future. He told me that the Skybot that has been hammering 6w/kg and nullifying all GC guys will attack in the last few KMs, after Henao finishes his job, and Froome will mark the contenders that will battle for the podium, while said skybot solos to victory.

Who might that skybot be?
 

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