2016 TdF, Stage 19: Albertville → Mont Blanc (146km)

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MacBAir said:
I have an uncle that thinks that he knows the future. He told me that the Skybot that has been hammering 6w/kg and nullifying all GC guys will attack in the last few KMs, after Henao finishes his job, and Froome will mark the contenders that will battle for the podium, while said skybot solos to victory.

Who might that skybot be?
Пулс?
 
Mar 13, 2015
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Poursuivant said:
Why does everyone think the break won't make it again? The only team who might chase are Astana and they will probably just drill it on the penultimate climb again when it is too late for the stage.
This.
 
Re:

Poursuivant said:
Why does everyone think the break won't make it again? The only team who might chase are Astana and they will probably just drill it on the penultimate climb again when it is too late for the stage.
BMC and AG2R could well contribute given how strong Porte and Bardet appear to be.
 
Jul 21, 2016
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Re: Re:

The Barb said:
Akabusi said:
Thanks I'll look at that... In ref to the barb as well, what motive do Astana and Bmc et all, have i. Chasing breaks from people who are one to two hours down in the gc? Surely it's a waste of energy that plays into sky's hands as well as more savvy gc teams who don't.
It's not about playing into Froome's hands because Sky is no longer the rival. Three motives for teams like Astana and BMC to chase the break hard:

1. A stage win. This has been a particularly bleak Tour for Astana but a stage win in the Alps would salvage something for them from it. Porte has also spoken about how meaningful a stage win would be for him and this is as good a chance as he will ever get (with Froome now less motivated and him appearing the strongest of the remainder).

2. Bonus seconds. Time gaps are so tight amongst the podium contenders that 10 seconds of bonus time could be important, especially for Porte.

3. A hard stage will increase the vulnerability of podium contenders who appear to be weakening, like Mollema.
Thanks great logic and very succinct. My only question is will any gc team go that hard at the risk of blowing out great men who could carry their man to the final climb in order to bring back someone like Villanueva when it could cost aru later on when the sky train brings up the pace and drops him bringing a small group of gc to a very nice time advantage? I know less than you guys but if I were a team director I would allow any break tommorow that Doesnt threaten yuor top 5 chances. Go balls out on stage 20 if desperate maybe for a stage win maybe. Either way it's a lovely day for team sky tommorrow, that train can work whenever it wants or cares, and thus, if a break doesn't work, surely it plays into froomes hands?
Anyone got any other names I can add to my breakaway bet ?

Once again thanks guys for yuor depth of knowledge, I'll ask again at the very much more unpredictable a vuelta :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
Jul 21, 2016
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PPS,
You think Mollema is weakening?

Do you think the. That Yates has a strong shot at the podium ?
I keep waiting for the day (like perhaps Thomas last year) when he bombs out. But I haven't seen it. Could it be a Britsih rider one and two on the podium. Sacre Blu, surely not!
 
Jul 21, 2016
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PPS,
You think Mollema is weakening?

Do you think the. That Yates has a strong shot at the podium ?
I keep waiting for the day (like perhaps Thomas last year) when he bombs out. But I haven't seen it. Could it be a Britsih rider one and two on the podium. Sacre Blu, surely not!
 
Jan 24, 2012
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Re:

Akabusi said:
PPS,
You think Mollema is weakening?

Do you think the. That Yates has a strong shot at the podium ?
I keep waiting for the day (like perhaps Thomas last year) when he bombs out. But I haven't seen it. Could it be a Britsih rider one and two on the podium. Sacre Blu, surely not!
Hopefully.
Yea.
Could be British-British-Aussie or British-Aussie-British in a few days.
 
A GC stage battle tomorrow

Two races left in GC

Porte and Aru for podium (and stage wins) Astana and BMC will go for it
I certainly think Porte can do it...so expect some work here

Also 4 riders are fighting for places 9 and 10 ...so I think we will have action here ..Purito & Martin are key to hang on here for me and to also go for the stage





...I expect some SKY doms in the break btw
 
I just hope sky allows a good battle for the podium. For example in 2014 nibali also was totally dominant but the other rider could battle it out because nibali's team didn't control the whole stage. Sky however could control everything before the last 2 kilometers if they want.
 
Jun 8, 2015
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Re:

MacBAir said:
I have an uncle that thinks that he knows the future. He told me that the Skybot that has been hammering 6w/kg and nullifying all GC guys will attack in the last few KMs, after Henao finishes his job, and Froome will mark the contenders that will battle for the podium, while said skybot solos to victory.

Who might that skybot be?
I have no clue -- at least two skybots come to mind for this stage. xxxxx or XXXXX... or even xxxxx. All cycling teams are not created equal. Sky is deep.

Dang it all when favorite riders turn to the dark side. ;)
 
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The Barb said:
I really doubt the break will succeed. There are such small gaps between places 2-6 that bonus seconds could be crucial. With Aru seemingly improving while others decline, Astana should chase hard and may get help (to the extent that they can) from BMC.

I could see Froome breaking clear with only Porte following. Froome then doing all the work to help Porte gain as much time as possible, and gifting him the win.
Same goes The Barb,fingers crossed for an attacking stage..
 
Gigs_98 said:
I just hope sky allows a good battle for the podium. For example in 2014 nibali also was totally dominant but the other rider could battle it out because nibali's team didn't control the whole stage. Sky however could control everything before the last 2 kilometers if they want.
Well it seems the Sky doms are working for everyone as they continually react to every move and drag the rest of the GC riders with them. When Froome is that far ahead he should let other teams chase which they have to do if they want to make the podium and Froome can just tag along and watch the action but of course it's not going to happen as Sky just keep grinding away. Astana will be the obvious mover on this stage as Movistar don't have it and BMC are not strong enough to make a difference. Whether Astana can move Aru up the GC is another thing. It remains to be seen whether Yates and Mollema have any reserves left but Quintana will probably lose more time. Porte and Bardet should be a good battle and Aru has to make a move as well. The attacks will have to come earlier otherwise Mollema and Yates just sit on the Sky train if they still can.
 
I don't think that Bardet/Porte/Aru can wait until the flat-ish part in the middle of the final climb to make a move. Otherwise, they won't make up enough time on Mollema and Yates. Bardet may be tempted to sit on Porte's wheel, let him make the move: because if he attacks from afar and it backfires, He'll be 6th or 7th in Paris. And Porte will have to move. Aru? He hasn't impressed me so far: he'll try to bluff. He'll attack: and if Bardet waits for Porte to bridge the gap and Porte doesn't, Aru may take advantage of it, gain a couple of spots. I don't see Quintana trying anything.

Porte holds the key to this stage IMO. Otherwise, it will be a last 5km slug-fest, not enough to make up or lose a minute or two. Yates may be smart to attack Mollema, so if he himself gets gap-ed, he'll remain on the podium.

Many things can happen. Who will initiate the blood-bath? I'd say Aru with a bluff attack, or Porte for real. After that, mayhem...
 
I hope Mollema can hang on in these last couple tough stages and finally get on a GT podium. He's had some good results in GT's before, winning stages in them and getting top 5's, top 10's, but this is a great opportunity for him, if he still has something left. I think he still does. I don't think anyone behind Froome is feeling particularly strong, though Porte has had a good last couple stages. I am hoping Mollema and Yates stay on the podium. It would be good to see two new faces on a GT/TDF podium. Quintana, unless he rides magically the last two mountain stages doesn't deserve (in my opinion) a podium. He's been nonexistent for much of this tour. Supposedly his allergies are part of the problem for him, but I think it's a combination of form and the unwillingness of him and his teammates to do anything against Sky and the rest of his rivals for the podium.
 
Mar 9, 2013
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Penultimate Climb will be a BloodBath. BMC will make TJ ride tempo....The BOTS will laugh and have a coffee. While riding.

Aru needs to be aggressive as well as Porte. If they wait until the final climb you can shut the TV off and wait for the Vuelta to see a rider with some Cajones ATTACK!

Quintana needs to man up and try to attack. He talked a lot about the Alps and has done nothing. If he rides for 4th place he is officially a clown.

My $ is on Aru to light it up.....Its hard to root for a guy with a perm. But he is a lot like AC. So I have no choice. :)
 
Re:

thehook said:
Penultimate Climb will be a BloodBath. BMC will make TJ ride tempo....The BOTS will laugh and have a coffee. While riding.

Aru needs to be aggressive as well as Porte. If they wait until the final climb you can shut the TV off and wait for the Vuelta to see a rider with some Cajones ATTACK!

Quintana needs to man up and try to attack. He talked a lot about the Alps and has done nothing. If he rides for 4th place he is officially a clown.

My $ is on Aru to light it up.....Its hard to root for a guy with a perm. But he is a lot like AC. So I have no choice. :)
*^^This^^*
 
It's going to be on and off watching today for me. I'm going to watch the first uncategorized climb for the break action, HC Bisanne climb and Mont Blanc. I doubt too much will happen on Forclaz, Queige and between Bisanne and Mont Blanc.
 
Apr 1, 2013
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Winkin' boy said:
BMC can talk with SKY to secure a podium spot... Porte really deserves it!
there can't be any doubt, Porte deserving the podium more than anyone else .... bad luck, never giving up and at least trying ...
 
Re: Re:

loge1884 said:
Winkin' boy said:
BMC can talk with SKY to secure a podium spot... Porte really deserves it!
there can't be any doubt, Porte deserving the podium more than anyone else .... bad luck, never giving up and at least trying ...
Amen to that. Porte cops much flack (often well deserved) but has been terrific this Tour.
 
Re:

thehook said:
Penultimate Climb will be a BloodBath. BMC will make TJ ride tempo....The BOTS will laugh and have a coffee. While riding.

Aru needs to be aggressive as well as Porte. If they wait until the final climb you can shut the TV off and wait for the Vuelta to see a rider with some Cajones ATTACK!

Quintana needs to man up and try to attack. He talked a lot about the Alps and has done nothing. If he rides for 4th place he is officially a clown.

My $ is on Aru to light it up.....Its hard to root for a guy with a perm. But he is a lot like AC. So I have no choice. :)
He will ride for second or even to win if he has legs for that, of he is the 5th strong how you think he can fight for anything? By doing some nonsense attacks Contador did last year? If he has no leg to try to be 4th will be ok. I hope his problems go away if it s raining now over there and we can see his best version and a very good end of le Tour. We just need the level Quintana had in Andorra, no more. Otherway, it will be a boring stage again for GC, although Astana and Porte will try to get the podium, but maybe by keeping the strong pace of SKY, so...

If Quintana is at the ame level
 

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