2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163km)

[Cookster15]

First proper mountain and that's usually when Froome stamps his authority even though the Aspin isn't anything special. I am hoping that doesn't happen and the Movistar express is at least equal. Would be nice to see Porte in the mix. It's too early for Porte's bad day - that might come on the weekend. I am very afraid for Contador. Hopefully he can keep pace to give himself another day to recover but can't see that happening.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re:

First proper mountain and that's usually when Froome stamps his authority even though the Aspin isn't anything special.

This time it ain't an MTF though.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

I think Froome will target Ventoux and the itt the next day to get himself enough time on Quintana. These two stages suit him better then the Pyrenees.

 

[vedrafjord]

I think the reason ASO put a descent after the first big climb was specifically so Froome wouldn't kill off the race too early. I expect lots of riders to drop off the back, including some unexpected ones, but attacking will probably be limited to a few digs near the top. Unfortunately the stages from today to Sunday I think would be great in any other race, but here there's a chance of the Sky and Movistar trains both preventing anyone else from doing anything, and neutralising each other.

As for Sagan, well, he did get in plenty of breaks in last year's Tour, and he was a lot better on Mt Baldy in the ToC last year than anyone would have predicted, but this is July and the field is a lot stronger, including random breakaway guys. It suits Majka from a breakaway a lot more assuming he comes into some kind of form, and Oleg didn't beat him too hard with that bike pump the other day.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

I think Froome will target Ventoux and the itt the next day to get himself enough time on Quintana. These two stages suit him better then the Pyrenees.

The big question of this tour is probably if Quintana is once again stronger than Froome in the last week. I think it's at least possible and therefore Froome would be completely stupid if he wouldn't attack in the pyrenees. Even in 2013 Quintana lost less than half a minute on Froome and the ITT also isn't that long so I think 2 minutes is the absolute maximum Froome can gain there and around one minute is more likely.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

I think Froome will target Ventoux and the itt the next day to get himself enough time on Quintana. These two stages suit him better then the Pyrenees.

The big question of this tour is probably if Quintana is once again stronger than Froome in the last week. I think it's at least possible and therefore Froome would be completely stupid if he wouldn't attack in the pyrenees. Even in 2013 Quintana lost less than half a minute on Froome and the ITT also isn't that long so I think 2 minutes is the absolute maximum Froome can gain there and around one minute is more likely.

Didn't Froome say he's timing his peak for later this year round?

 

[Anderis]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

I can't see how would Sagan win this unless he is in right breakaway. Look how early he dropped on stage 5, in yellow jersey, on terrain that in theory suited him better than one long steady climb near the finish. Hushovd won stage 13 in 2011 because he had 40 kilometers from the top of the climb to catch those who dropped him on the climb and he barely managed to do so.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

I think Froome will target Ventoux and the itt the next day to get himself enough time on Quintana. These two stages suit him better then the Pyrenees.

The big question of this tour is probably if Quintana is once again stronger than Froome in the last week. I think it's at least possible and therefore Froome would be completely stupid if he wouldn't attack in the pyrenees. Even in 2013 Quintana lost less than half a minute on Froome and the ITT also isn't that long so I think 2 minutes is the absolute maximum Froome can gain there and around one minute is more likely.

Didn't Froome say he's timing his peak for later this year round?

Yes but for me that doesn't really change anything. If he is peaking later we will see in the pyrenees anyway, because I doubt absolutely nobody will attack. But I honestly think it will be more or less like in 2013 and 2015. Last year after PSM people also argued that he will be even stronger in the alps than he was in the pyrenees so I think the plan also wasn't to be complete crap in the last week.

 

[Carols]

Re: Re:

Just realized that NBCSN in the US won't be replaying this stage tomorrow night because there's a NASCAR race, and I can't watch it at work, so I'm not going to be able to watch it. Maybe someone will upload it on YouTube or something.

They may have it online at nbcsports.com

Yeah except they are now charging to watch it online even if you have the tv station! Thank goodness I have the station via DISH and can use the Dish Anywhere app. Still I'm pretty upset with NBCSN as for years one could use the online service if you had the tv station free of charge. Their streams are truly superb and sans commercials.

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

I think Froome will target Ventoux and the itt the next day to get himself enough time on Quintana. These two stages suit him better then the Pyrenees.

The big question of this tour is probably if Quintana is once again stronger than Froome in the last week. I think it's at least possible and therefore Froome would be completely stupid if he wouldn't attack in the pyrenees. Even in 2013 Quintana lost less than half a minute on Froome and the ITT also isn't that long so I think 2 minutes is the absolute maximum Froome can gain there and around one minute is more likely.

Didn't Froome say he's timing his peak for later this year round?

Quintana is still a better climber and on days with multiple hard climbs Quintana should be stronger.

 

[Carols]

I'm hoping Nibali feels good today. Is the descent technical enough for him to get away on?

 

[Cookster15]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

I think Froome will target Ventoux and the itt the next day to get himself enough time on Quintana. These two stages suit him better then the Pyrenees.

The big question of this tour is probably if Quintana is once again stronger than Froome in the last week. I think it's at least possible and therefore Froome would be completely stupid if he wouldn't attack in the pyrenees. Even in 2013 Quintana lost less than half a minute on Froome and the ITT also isn't that long so I think 2 minutes is the absolute maximum Froome can gain there and around one minute is more likely.

Didn't Froome say he's timing his peak for later this year round?

Quintana is still a better climber and on days with multiple hard climbs Quintana should be stronger.

Quintana should be stronger than we've seen him before - he's still only 26 and his form coming into the Tour looked very promising. But we might have to wait for Ventoux or the Alpes to find out. Hopefully he has learned from his hesitancy last year and doesn't leave it too late to attack. Question is what will Froome do before then?

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

I think Froome will target Ventoux and the itt the next day to get himself enough time on Quintana. These two stages suit him better then the Pyrenees.

The big question of this tour is probably if Quintana is once again stronger than Froome in the last week. I think it's at least possible and therefore Froome would be completely stupid if he wouldn't attack in the pyrenees. Even in 2013 Quintana lost less than half a minute on Froome and the ITT also isn't that long so I think 2 minutes is the absolute maximum Froome can gain there and around one minute is more likely.

Didn't Froome say he's timing his peak for later this year round?

Quintana is still a better climber and on days with multiple hard climbs Quintana should be stronger.

But how much stronger?

 

[tomorrow]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

I can't see how would Sagan win this unless he is in right breakaway. Look how early he dropped on stage 5, in yellow jersey, on terrain that in theory suited him better than one long steady climb near the finish. Hushovd won stage 13 in 2011 because he had 40 kilometers from the top of the climb to catch those who dropped him on the climb and he barely managed to do so.

well, in stage 5, he dropped himself, hi didn't look on the edge to me on the pictures when he stepped down from the peloton. However, I am not sure he can win the stage too. Not because there will probably be much better climbers in the break, but because when someone attacks, everybody will look at him to close the gap, as happened in all the breaks he entered last year. Also, the descent from Aspin isn't long and difficult enough for hime to take back the time he lost while going uphill,



I was actually thinking he might be an outside chance also. Etixx and Dimension I don't think would really care, they are about stage wins not the green jersey. Sagan is keen to get in s break too, as he tried on Stage 5.

If he gets in a break with no pure climbers, as is possible with the flat start, it's not crazy to think he could win.[/quote]

If they are not, they definately should. There is not much stages left, if any at all, where Sagan could win or score some reasonable points without Cavendish/Kittel being there, besides if he goes into the break. So not allowing Sagan to go into the break should be their concern.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

I can't see how would Sagan win this unless he is in right breakaway. Look how early he dropped on stage 5, in yellow jersey, on terrain that in theory suited him better than one long steady climb near the finish. Hushovd won stage 13 in 2011 because he had 40 kilometers from the top of the climb to catch those who dropped him on the climb and he barely managed to do so.

That was because the peloton had given the breakaway too much of a gap, so there was no point in wasting energy when both the stage win and defending the yellow jersey were off the table.

Had the peloton stayed within striking distance of the breakaway, I'm sure Sagan would have won the stage or at least finished in the leading group.

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

I think Froome will target Ventoux and the itt the next day to get himself enough time on Quintana. These two stages suit him better then the Pyrenees.

The big question of this tour is probably if Quintana is once again stronger than Froome in the last week. I think it's at least possible and therefore Froome would be completely stupid if he wouldn't attack in the pyrenees. Even in 2013 Quintana lost less than half a minute on Froome and the ITT also isn't that long so I think 2 minutes is the absolute maximum Froome can gain there and around one minute is more likely.

Didn't Froome say he's timing his peak for later this year round?

Quintana is still a better climber and on days with multiple hard climbs Quintana should be stronger.

But how much stronger?

By 3rd week a lot I'd say. Even in 2013 Quintana was able to beat Froome in the end. I don't think that even Froome peaking later can help him against Quintana.
Quintana is a pure climber accustomed to climbing high altitudes and he is also much smaller than Froome which makes it easier for him. I'd say that all the climbing and racing over 3 weeks simply doesn't exhaust him as much as it does Froome.

 

[Poursuivant]

Re:

bardet might do a sneaky attack close to the top then speed down hill, while Froome is busy watching Quintana. He'll win the stage, but he will pay dearly in Andora as Froome returns the favor. Contador will most likely loose time if the GC contenders start attacking.

Exactly what I think, except the break take the stage ahead of Bardet.

 

[dacooley]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

By 3rd week a lot I'd say. Even in 2013 Quintana was able to beat Froome in the end. I don't think that even Froome peaking later can help him against Quintana.
Quintana is a pure climber accustomed to climbing high altitudes and he is also much smaller than Froome which makes it easier for him. I'd say that all the climbing and racing over 3 weeks simply doesn't exhaust him as much as it does Froome.

What is a lot? Quintana is able to easily put 3 minutes into Froome in 3rd week, probably more?

 

[Poursuivant]

“When he goes, it’s hard to stay with him but I’ve trained specifically to respond to his attacks and not lose ground,” Quintana told Gazzetta dello Sport.

“In the past, on Mont Ventoux, and La Pierre Saint Martin, I was the rider who lost least time to Chris but that’s not enough anymore. I think I’ve improved as a rider and matured too. I’ve learnt how to manage my strength and understand the moment when I’ve got to be 100% ready, while also being relaxed and confident.”

Quintana saying he expects Froome to attack. I think he will be surprised as he will wait until Andorra.

 

[Carols]

Re:

“When he goes, it’s hard to stay with him but I’ve trained specifically to respond to his attacks and not lose ground,” Quintana told Gazzetta dello Sport.

“In the past, on Mont Ventoux, and La Pierre Saint Martin, I was the rider who lost least time to Chris but that’s not enough anymore. I think I’ve improved as a rider and matured too. I’ve learnt how to manage my strength and understand the moment when I’ve got to be 100% ready, while also being relaxed and confident.”

Quintana saying he expects Froome to attack. I think he will be surprised as he will wait until Andorra.

If Froome waits Nairito should attack!

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Can Nairo descend fast (when the rest of the peloton doesn't think the race is neutralised)?

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

By 3rd week a lot I'd say. Even in 2013 Quintana was able to beat Froome in the end. I don't think that even Froome peaking later can help him against Quintana.
Quintana is a pure climber accustomed to climbing high altitudes and he is also much smaller than Froome which makes it easier for him. I'd say that all the climbing and racing over 3 weeks simply doesn't exhaust him as much as it does Froome.

What is a lot? Quintana is able to easily put 3 minutes into Froome in 3rd week, probably more?

If Quintana races entire week aggressively then I'd say why not.

 

[dacooley]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (163

By 3rd week a lot I'd say. Even in 2013 Quintana was able to beat Froome in the end. I don't think that even Froome peaking later can help him against Quintana.
Quintana is a pure climber accustomed to climbing high altitudes and he is also much smaller than Froome which makes it easier for him. I'd say that all the climbing and racing over 3 weeks simply doesn't exhaust him as much as it does Froome.

What is a lot? Quintana is able to easily put 3 minutes into Froome in 3rd week, probably more?

If Quintana races entire week aggressively then I'd say why not.

That's possible only if the Tour goes exactly on the 2015 path which won't happen.

 

[AlexNYC]

Re:

Can Nairo descend fast (when the rest of the peloton doesn't think the race is neutralised)?

You can watch his Dauphine victory in 2012 if you really have any doubts.

 

[PremierAndrew]

I think Nairo should attack today. Froome hasn't seemed to be feeling well over the last couple of days, so definitely worth testing him