2016 TdF, Stage 9: Vielha → Andorra Arcalis (185km)

[The Barb]

Re:

knowing froome's greed that will be very difficult to wear yellow jersey for anyone else in this race

I dislike Froome as much as the next person, but to characterise wanting to keep the yellow jersey as greedy is a little unfair.

His apparent desire to win the KOTM as well, however, that's a different matter.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

Lot of effort from froomey last stage,lets hope it doesnt cost him in the stage 9 tonight?went hard for about 20 mins and gained only 20 seconds.mmmm

Plus the fact that he tried to drop them all on the climb and couldn't. He didn't seem to be climbing better than Quintana, Henao and Martin from what (little) I saw.

Lot of effort from froomey last stage,lets hope it doesnt cost him in the stage 9 tonight?went hard for about 20 mins and gained only 20 seconds.mmmm

It's not like his rivals were just coasting behind him.

They kind of were.

 

[spiritualride]

Re: Re:

knowing froome's greed that will be very difficult to wear yellow jersey for anyone else in this race

I dislike Froome as much as the next person, but to characterise wanting to keep the yellow jersey as greedy is a little unfair.

His apparent desire to win the KOTM as well, however, that's a different matter.

If he wants the KOTM then why did he give up a bunch of points repeatedly to his teammates on stage 8? Not that he won't accidentally win KOTM regardless.

 

[The Barb]

Re: Re:

knowing froome's greed that will be very difficult to wear yellow jersey for anyone else in this race

I dislike Froome as much as the next person, but to characterise wanting to keep the yellow jersey as greedy is a little unfair.

His apparent desire to win the KOTM as well, however, that's a different matter.

If he wants the KOTM then why did he give up a bunch of points repeatedly to his teammates on stage 8? Not that he won't accidentally win KOTM regardless.

He didn't give up many to his teammates. He ensured he took max on the final climb and on the penultimate only Wout Poels crossed before him (Froome went out of his way to out-sprint Majka for 2nd to minimise his points). Oh yeah, and Froome said specifically that he was sprinting for mountains points.

 

[Praying Mantis]

Preview:

In 1998, Jan Ullrich laid the foundations for his overall win by riding to a dominant solo win.

Jan Ullrich did NOT win the 1998 Tour! :twisted:

Hah, I'll go ahead and edit that. This cannot stand!

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

I wonder how Quintana will **** this one up. He probably doesn't think it's an important stage or anything.

Maybe - and he may mistakenly think it's better to wait for Ventoux if there's a headwind again. Quintana's spineless counter "attacks" are getting tiresome. He may end up being the #1 favorite after this stage, though. And then Froome back to #1 after the first ITT.

Froome seems to be weaker than I thought. Not dominant on Peyresourde at all. It was a multi mountain stage though, and not a single climb stage (APSM, Ventoux) or a one-and-a-half climb stage (Ax 3)

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: Re:

I wonder how Quintana will **** this one up. He probably doesn't think it's an important stage or anything.

Maybe - and he may mistakenly think it's better to wait for Ventoux if there's a headwind again. Quintana's spineless counter "attacks" are getting tiresome. He may end up being the #1 favorite after this stage, though. And then Froome back to #1 after the first ITT.

Froome seems to be weaker than I thought. Not dominant on Peyresourde at all. It was a multi mountain stage though, and not a single climb stage (APSM, Ventoux) or a one-and-a-half climb stage (Ax 3)

Quintana didn't even attack yesterday so there wasn't even a spineless attack. There was nothing.
The only reason he did the little acceleration seemed to be because of Henao who tried to attack from behind in the bunch.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

You know there's a chance that scenario might backfire spectacularly.
Valverde drops himself in Beixalis, leaving Quintana isolated agains Henao and Froome (Henao has shown to be stronger than Piti). Both Sky riders(possibly some other opponent as well) attack on the descent and gap Quintana like today. Henao pulls Froome to the base of Arcalis. Froome carries on by himself....

Added: In fact, if Nairo is left only with Valverde in Beixalis, Sky should definitely try to isolate Nairo and toy with him up to the base of Arcalis.

I don't think Henao is a problem for Quintana. He's an explosive rider, but he can't sustain the climbing power needed to either drop Quintana for long, or to respond to a series of attacks. Landa is the bigger issue. Because Quintana can't attack whilst he is there. He could easily tow Froome for 5km or so at a similar pace to Quintana is going, leaving him hang out to dry, before a fresh Froome closes the gap and goes on to win the stage. There's definitely a chance that Valverde could get rid of Landa with an explosive attack on the steeper slopes.

I don't think there is any way that the Sky train will be able to drop Quintana whatever they do. Even if Quintana is isolated I don't think he's in much trouble; it's only Froome that can put him in any difficulty. On the other hand, if Quintana wants to attack, he doesn't want Froome to be getting towed back up to him by 3 teammates.

You didn't get me I think
If Henao and Froom drop Valverde on beixalis, they can both attack on the descent and drop Nairo
Henao and Froome are (supposedly) quite capable of dropping an Isolated Nairo on the descent.

I'm not sure about that. It's a 7km fairly technical descent - completely different and much shorter than today, and one where the lighter rider would have advantages over a heavier one.
In any event, I don't think Sky would even want to risk that. They will want to have as many riders as possible to deter or control a Quintana attack on Arcalis. A slow pace suits them fine on a stage like this; they'd much rather have Landa, Thomas and Henao all there to suffocate the race, than basically have a mano v mano Froome against Quintana, even if Froome had somehow gained 10-15 seconds on the descent. With a 20 second lead for Froome and two time trials to come, it's up to Quintana to make the running now.

First : Beixalis descent is far more technical than Bagneres de luchon. And Froome is better than Quintana in any descent in the world. It's not a matter of extra kg. The gap created by Froome yesterday can be created in 3-4 km of Beixalis descent.

Second: Of course Sky will want calm waters but we are talking about the scenario that you implied before (i.e. Piti trying to put sky on the dagger in Beixalis) which clearly means no calm waters and which clearly leaves Sky with too few manpower (maybe only Henao).
And knowing the cowardice of the whole Movistar team, they will be very cautious of not letting Quintana ever alone with Sky in a terrain that involves flat or downhill parts.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re:

If Quintana plans to derail Sky train on Beixalis, he better make sure to have a man or two on the approach to Arcalis.

My thoughts exactly. It might blow spectacularly in his face.

 

[phanatic]

Re:

Arcalis is quite a **** climb. It's the same climb they did in 2009, right? When Contador showed Lance for the first time who's the boss?

That Astana team was even stronger than Sky 2012, let alone the current one. I think the level of competition here is closer to 2010, with two riders being a level beyond everyone else, though I am not suggesting Quintana and Froome would ever work together, especially with Movistar being so notoriously competitive.

 

[Ataraxus]

I think Quintana looked stronger than froome today. I'm not sure if he is strong enogh to win but I at least dont think he will be dropped.

To me as well. But last year in the first half of PSM he looked stronger to me as well.
In fact even when he was dropped with 6 to go, he looked like it wasn't a big thing and he was going to catch up later.

 

[Galic Ho]

Re: Re:

Wonder what tactics Sky will use tomorrow? If they think Quintana has a better chance than Froome to win the stage they might want to let the break go all the way, thereby not risking that Quintana take bonus seconds. So maybe we will se Movistar be at the front to try to catch the break, but then Sky could be in a good position, saving guys like Henao and Landa so they can help chase down Quintana if he attacks on the final ascent.

I think it is likely that we might see BMC riding in front as well tomorrow and if this is the case then the likely hood of breakaway winning is rather small. If Porte wants get back some of the time he has lost because of the mechanical it is a good time to start.

They cannot even take their due pull when they have the yellow jersey, what on earth makes anyone think they will do the work now?

It's really simple, two teams have shown a desire to set pace. Sky and Movistar. If everyone else wants action, they had better hope Contador miraculously recovers, because no other teams have shown any desire to do work.

Maybe Astana might do a bit of work.

BMC? Not likely. When you have an obligation to honour a jersey and have to send the maillot jaune up into a breakaway, that's because your team is too weak and also ignorant of the obligations the races history asks for the team holding a jersey.

No, you watch, Sky have the Maillot jaune, they were doing the bulk of the work, everyone will sit back and force them to do it all. Then watch how everyone complains about Movistar not attacking.

Cycling is not easy. If you send a rider to the front, he will more than likely not make the final selection. If BMC do that, they lose on of their two leaders. Same goes for Cannondale, Tinkoff, Astana and the other teams that had 2+ riders there yesterday on the climbs. Sky and Movistar alone did the work. Dan Martin from memory was the only rider with no team mate for most of the climbs. He had an excuse not to pull and did make an attack.

If people want to be entertained, we all know by now, who can and will attack ; Bardet, Martin, maybe Purito if he has the legs, and Valverde and Quintana (who has to actually go 100% not look around). Everyone else, has one tactic...hold on and hope they can fight over small time gaps. Basically it's lose as little time as possible.

EDIT: Aru might attack. He tends to do this at the end of a stage though. Maybe Nibali will be of some assistance...that might make the race interesting. That's about it right now.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I know that there are a lot of talking points, but why hasn't this been discussed?

Just will Libertine Seguros be able to contain his excitement once the riders hit those first steep slopes of one of the greatest climbs in Europe, the authentic HOR's category climb of Arcalis?

Unless he already understandably overdid it yesterday on the Tourmalet

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

First : Beixalis descent is far more technical than Bagneres de luchon. And Froome is better than Quintana in any descent in the world. It's not a matter of extra kg. The gap created by Froome yesterday can be created in 3-4 km of Beixalis descent.

Second: Of course Sky will want calm waters but we are talking about the scenario that you implied before (i.e. Piti trying to put sky on the dagger in Beixalis) which clearly means no calm waters and which clearly leaves Sky with too few manpower (maybe only Henao).
And knowing the cowardice of the whole Movistar team, they will be very cautious of not letting Quintana ever alone with Sky in a terrain that involves flat or downhill parts.

This is indeed a problem. But it's difficult to see how else they can use their team to help Quintana. They have several good punchy climbers and Valverde, of course, who can survive late into a stage. But, I don't see how riding a high steady pace on a climb is going to get rid of the Sky train. Thomas, Nieve and especially Landa are better at that kind of thing than Movistar are.

 

[Zoophonic]

Quintana must be feeling confident now.

You may hope that but I am sure that move yesterday has given Quintana much food for thought. It's still early days but if he is feeling more confident as a result of being caught with his pants down as you suggest then he would be a fool.

And as for the strength of Team SKY IF YOU ALSO THROW Pouls into the mix you have formidable support.

 

[Tank Engine]

Quintana must be feeling confident now. Sky threw the kitchen sink at it, including a new descending tactic (thanks Smug Dave Brailsford for giving the game away), letting Va Va Froome burn matches for disappearing seconds and the gains were no more than marginal.
Nairo can afford Chris gaining a few more seconds on today's stage. By going to the Tour de Suisse he showed his intention is to have enough left to win it in the third week.
Sky have to attack again else their moral superiority will disappear and we've yet to see evidence that on this stage they can win decisively.

I guess you mean Route du Sud.

There will be a strong break, since they are climbing straight away. If this stage were at the end of the race, then those behind in GC might threw the kitchen sink at it and set up a long range attack. Even if there is a rest day tomorrow, I think the gaps are too small for that. The fact that the stage is multi-mountain favours Nairo. The final climb though is ideal for Froome. They are the favourites for the stage, but could cancel each other out, leaving e.g. Henao to continue the war of attrition until near the end

1. Froome
2. Quintana +2
3 Aru +16
4 D Martin +24
5 Valverde +24
5 Bardot +26
6 TJ +26
7 Porte +26
8 Rodriguez +32
9 Henao +36
10 Meintjes +1:01

 

[Punter]

Re: Re:

knowing froome's greed that will be very difficult to wear yellow jersey for anyone else in this race

I dislike Froome as much as the next person, but to characterise wanting to keep the yellow jersey as greedy is a little unfair.

His apparent desire to win the KOTM as well, however, that's a different matter.

If he wants the KOTM then why did he give up a bunch of points repeatedly to his teammates on stage 8? Not that he won't accidentally win KOTM regardless.

He didn't give up many to his teammates. He ensured he took max on the final climb and on the penultimate only Wout Poels crossed before him (Froome went out of his way to out-sprint Majka for 2nd to minimise his points). Oh yeah, and Froome said specifically that he was sprinting for mountains points.

Could be wrong but think the whole sprinting for mountain points early was just a bluff so that the likes of Quintana wouldn't panic and go with him at the top of the final climb - brilliant tactic if the case

 

[Bavarianrider]

Good memories

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3jRlrknXzM




1. Jan Ullrich (Ger) TEL 7.46.06 (avs: 32,503 km/h)
2. Marco Pantani (Ita) MER 1.08
3. Richard Virenque (Fra) FES 1.08
4. Francesco Casagrande (Ita) SAE 2.01
5. Bjarne Riis (Dan) TEL 3.23
6. Laurent Dufaux (Swi) FES 3.27
7. Jose Maria Jimenez (Spa) BAN 3.45
8. Fernando Escartin (Spa) KEL
9. Abraham Olano (Spa) BAN
10. Alberto Elli (Ita) CSO
11. Marco Fincato (Ita) ROS
12. Pascal Lino (Fra) BIG
13. Roberto Conti (Ita) MER
14. Peter Luttenberger (Aut) RAB 4.02
15. Kevin Livingston (USA) COF 4.15
16. Beat Zberg (Swi) MER 4.46
17. Joona Laukka (Fin) FES
18. Oskar Camenzind (Swi) MAP
19. Laurent Roux (Fra) TVM
20. Jean-Philippe Dojwa (Fra) MUT 5.12
21. Daniele Nardello (Ita) MAP 6.25
22. David Delrieu (Fra) MUT 6.49
23. Bobby Julich (USA) COF 7.05
24. Frangois Simon (Fra) GAN 7.44
25. Cidric Vasseur (Fra) GAN
26. Michael Boogerd (Ned) RAB
27. Christophe Moreau (Fra) FES
28. Pascal Chanteur (Fra) CSO
29. Marcello Siboni (Ita) MER
30. Hernan Buenahora (Col) KEL 8.16
31. Laurent Madouas (Fra) LOT 8.27
32. Manuel Beltran (Spa) BAN
33. Gianluca Bortolami (Ita) FES 10.21
34. Massimo Podenzana (Ita) MER 11.18
35. Jean-Cyril Robin (Fra) USP
36. Santiago Blanco (Spa) BAN 11.43
37. Rolf Aldag (Ger) TEL 12.13
38. Mikel Zarrabeitia (Spa) ONC 12.49
39. Benont Salmon (Fra) LOT 13.51
40. Orlando Rodrigues (Por) BAN 15.03
41. Andreo Teteriuk (Kzk) LOT 15.28
42. Jose de los Angeles (Spa) KEL 17.18
43. Angel Casero (Spa) BAN
44. Massimiliano Lelli (Ita) SAE
45. Andrea Peron (Ita) FDJ
46. Valentino Fois (Ita) MAP 18.21
47. Neil Stephens (Aus) FES 18.59
48. Laurent Jalabert (Fra) ONC
49. Oscar Pellicioli (Ita) MER 19.40

 

[meat puppet]

Joona laukka (of festina) in excellent company there!

Quintana must at least follow froome if keen on winning. No desperate need to attack as yet, but he should take every opportunity if one should raise. Too bad movi will probably ride very conservatively. Sky train will choo choo its job then.

However, I think froome will simply bulldoze everyone.

 

[spalco]

Realistically I predict Quintana attacking a few times but Sky/Froome reeling him back or the other way round, but with both arriving at the finish within under 30 seconds of each other.

I'm hoping for an alien performance though.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

You are overestimating Valverde a bit

Not really. Valverde's 3-5 minute climbing power is probably the best in the peloton. He could put anyone into difficulty with a hard five minute effort. We've seen that time and time again in one day races.

Of course, we have very rarely seen that in GTs because he's always pacing himself for GC. But if he's not bothered about finishing high up and is willing to blow himself up for Quintana, then he is an amazing asset to have.

It's not going to happen. It would be cool, but Movistar and showing balls on a stage in the first week. Not going to happen!

 

[DFA123]

Realistically I predict Quintana attacking a few times but Sky/Froome reeling him back or the other way round, but with both arriving at the finish within under 30 seconds of each other.

I'm hoping for an alien performance though.

I think that is all that Quintana needs at this stage. He just needs to make the race as hard as possible in these first two weeks, so that he can potentially crack Froome decisively in the final week. It's not so important now whether he has yellow, as long as he is within striking distance.

He has to disrupt the Sky train and take some risks to do that though; if Sky ride 90% of Arcalis at a hard but controlled pace it's just playing into Froome's hands.

 

[spiritualride]

Re: Re:

knowing froome's greed that will be very difficult to wear yellow jersey for anyone else in this race

I dislike Froome as much as the next person, but to characterise wanting to keep the yellow jersey as greedy is a little unfair.

His apparent desire to win the KOTM as well, however, that's a different matter.

If he wants the KOTM then why did he give up a bunch of points repeatedly to his teammates on stage 8? Not that he won't accidentally win KOTM regardless.

He didn't give up many to his teammates. He ensured he took max on the final climb and on the penultimate only Wout Poels crossed before him (Froome went out of his way to out-sprint Majka for 2nd to minimise his points). Oh yeah, and Froome said specifically that he was sprinting for mountains points.

Could be wrong but think the whole sprinting for mountain points early was just a bluff so that the likes of Quintana wouldn't panic and go with him at the top of the final climb - brilliant tactic if the case

Yeah that and considering the big prize for KOM points was the HC Tourmalet, where Froome let 3 teammates finish ahead of him.

 

[spalco]

I think that is all that Quintana needs at this stage. He just needs to make the race as hard as possible in these first two weeks, so that he can potentially crack Froome decisively in the final week. It's not so important now whether he has yellow, as long as he is within striking distance.

He has to disrupt the Sky train and take some risks to do that though; if Sky ride 90% of Arcalis at a hard but controlled pace it's just playing into Froome's hands.

I don't know. That magical hope for the third week may work or it may not. Didn't work for Quintana in the past though.

I'm more in the "take seconds wherever you can" camp, which is also why I really like Froome's attack yesterday.

 

[DFA123]

I think that is all that Quintana needs at this stage. He just needs to make the race as hard as possible in these first two weeks, so that he can potentially crack Froome decisively in the final week. It's not so important now whether he has yellow, as long as he is within striking distance.

He has to disrupt the Sky train and take some risks to do that though; if Sky ride 90% of Arcalis at a hard but controlled pace it's just playing into Froome's hands.

I don't know. That magical hope for the third week may work or it may not. Didn't work for Quintana in the past though.

I'm more in the "take seconds wherever you can" camp, which is also why I really like Froome's attack yesterday.

Yeah, Movistar definitely have to be more proactive than in the past - I think we saw signs of that yesterday though. Last year they basically let Sky dictate the pace of the race for the first two weeks - allowing them to ride to power numbers that they have probably been planning for months.

They have to do more to disrupt the race and take Froome out of his comfort zone, so Sky can't just ride to power, and so that they go fatigued into the last week and are unsure about what numbers they can deliver. I think that was part of the plan yesterday, with Izagirre and Moreno upping the pace at times when it looked as though Sky were easing off slightly.