2016 TdF, Stage 9: Vielha → Andorra Arcalis (185km)

[Punkan]

Am I the only one to think the climb towards Arcalis should definitely NOT be rated HC?

Especially considering Col de la Forclaz (13 km @ 7.9%) is 1C.

It's HC because it comes after 4000 metres of climbing.

In 2009 there wasn't 4000 meters of climbing, and it still was HC. However it was the full climb starting from Andorre-la-Vieille, and when you see 1200m of positive ascent it could be worth it if there wasn't over 10km of false flat.

Also in 1997, Arcalis was HC while Courchevel, being twice as long and being a little bit less steep, was 1C.

The high altitude is also a factor I'm sure. Finish is at 2240 m.

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

I don't think Movistar needs to do anything on Beixalis but if anything then just a decent tempo to get rid of weaker riders in the peloton. I think that they should ride as hard into Arcalis as they can and then Valverde should launch attack which should put Sky domestiques on the limit and immediately after this Quintana should go.
Seems to me like a logical thing to do.

 

[Punkan]

Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

Henao was strong today, can be hard to drop. Nieve also looked ok today, Landa's shape I'm more uncertain of.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

I don't think Movistar needs to do anything on Beixalis but if anything then just a decent tempo to get rid of weaker riders in the peloton. I think that they should ride as hard into Arcalis as they can and then Valverde should launch attack which should put Sky domestiques on the limit and immediately after this Quintana should go.
Seems to me like a logical thing to do.

I think Arcalis might be too gentle for that to work. Too much benefit from drafting for Valverde to really trouble Sky's domestiques. On the 12%+ slopes of Beixalis though, it could be a different story.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Froome will destroy all the wannabies........

 

[Cookster15]

Re:

Expecting Quintana to strike back.

I doubt Nairo can put any time into Froome on Arcalis. If I am still interested in the Tour after tomorrow it means Quintana did well and we have a race on our hands.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

You know there's a chance that scenario might backfire spectacularly.
Valverde drops himself in Beixalis, leaving Quintana isolated agains Henao and Froome (Henao has shown to be stronger than Piti). Both Sky riders(possibly some other opponent as well) attack on the descent and gap Quintana like today. Henao pulls Froome to the base of Arcalis. Froome carries on by himself....

Added: In fact, if Nairo is left only with Valverde in Beixalis, Sky should definitely try to isolate Nairo and toy with him up to the base of Arcalis.

 

[TBSOUTH]

Dan Martin lives and trains the last 70km's regulary, looked strong today and worth a few £££'s tomorrow

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

You know there's a chance that scenario might backfire spectacularly.
Valverde drops himself in Beixalis, leaving Quintana isolated agains Henao and Froome (Henao has shown to be stronger than Piti). Both Sky riders(possibly some other opponent as well) attack on the descent and gap Quintana like today. Henao pulls Froome to the base of Arcalis. Froome carries on by himself....

Added: In fact, if Nairo is left only with Valverde in Beixalis, Sky should definitely try to isolate Nairo and toy with him up to the base of Arcalis.

I don't think Henao is a problem for Quintana. He's an explosive rider, but he can't sustain the climbing power needed to either drop Quintana for long, or to respond to a series of attacks. Landa is the bigger issue. Because Quintana can't attack whilst he is there. He could easily tow Froome for 5km or so at a similar pace to Quintana is going, leaving him hang out to dry, before a fresh Froome closes the gap and goes on to win the stage. There's definitely a chance that Valverde could get rid of Landa with an explosive attack on the steeper slopes.

I don't think there is any way that the Sky train will be able to drop Quintana whatever they do. Even if Quintana is isolated I don't think he's in much trouble; it's only Froome that can put him in any difficulty. On the other hand, if Quintana wants to attack, he doesn't want Froome to be getting towed back up to him by 3 teammates.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

You know there's a chance that scenario might backfire spectacularly.
Valverde drops himself in Beixalis, leaving Quintana isolated agains Henao and Froome (Henao has shown to be stronger than Piti). Both Sky riders(possibly some other opponent as well) attack on the descent and gap Quintana like today. Henao pulls Froome to the base of Arcalis. Froome carries on by himself....

Added: In fact, if Nairo is left only with Valverde in Beixalis, Sky should definitely try to isolate Nairo and toy with him up to the base of Arcalis.

I don't think Henao is a problem for Quintana. He's an explosive rider, but he can't sustain the climbing power needed to either drop Quintana for long, or to respond to a series of attacks. Landa is the bigger issue. Because Quintana can't attack whilst he is there. He could easily tow Froome for 5km or so at a similar pace to Quintana is going, leaving him hang out to dry, before a fresh Froome closes the gap and goes on to win the stage. There's definitely a chance that Valverde could get rid of Landa with an explosive attack on the steeper slopes.

I don't think there is any way that the Sky train will be able to drop Quintana whatever they do. Even if Quintana is isolated I don't think he's in much trouble; it's only Froome that can put him in any difficulty. On the other hand, if Quintana wants to attack, he doesn't want Froome to be getting towed back up to him by 3 teammates.

 

[Fernandez]

Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

You are overestimating Valverde a bit

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

You know there's a chance that scenario might backfire spectacularly.
Valverde drops himself in Beixalis, leaving Quintana isolated agains Henao and Froome (Henao has shown to be stronger than Piti). Both Sky riders(possibly some other opponent as well) attack on the descent and gap Quintana like today. Henao pulls Froome to the base of Arcalis. Froome carries on by himself....

Added: In fact, if Nairo is left only with Valverde in Beixalis, Sky should definitely try to isolate Nairo and toy with him up to the base of Arcalis.

I don't think Henao is a problem for Quintana. He's an explosive rider, but he can't sustain the climbing power needed to either drop Quintana for long, or to respond to a series of attacks. Landa is the bigger issue. Because Quintana can't attack whilst he is there. He could easily tow Froome for 5km or so at a similar pace to Quintana is going, leaving him hang out to dry, before a fresh Froome closes the gap and goes on to win the stage. There's definitely a chance that Valverde could get rid of Landa with an explosive attack on the steeper slopes.

I don't think there is any way that the Sky train will be able to drop Quintana whatever they do. Even if Quintana is isolated I don't think he's in much trouble; it's only Froome that can put him in any difficulty. On the other hand, if Quintana wants to attack, he doesn't want Froome to be getting towed back up to him by 3 teammates.

You didn't get me I think
If Henao and Froom drop Valverde on beixalis, they can both attack on the descent and drop Nairo
Henao and Froome are (supposedly) quite capable of dropping an Isolated Nairo on the descent.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

You know there's a chance that scenario might backfire spectacularly.
Valverde drops himself in Beixalis, leaving Quintana isolated agains Henao and Froome (Henao has shown to be stronger than Piti). Both Sky riders(possibly some other opponent as well) attack on the descent and gap Quintana like today. Henao pulls Froome to the base of Arcalis. Froome carries on by himself....

Added: In fact, if Nairo is left only with Valverde in Beixalis, Sky should definitely try to isolate Nairo and toy with him up to the base of Arcalis.

I don't think Henao is a problem for Quintana. He's an explosive rider, but he can't sustain the climbing power needed to either drop Quintana for long, or to respond to a series of attacks. Landa is the bigger issue. Because Quintana can't attack whilst he is there. He could easily tow Froome for 5km or so at a similar pace to Quintana is going, leaving him hang out to dry, before a fresh Froome closes the gap and goes on to win the stage. There's definitely a chance that Valverde could get rid of Landa with an explosive attack on the steeper slopes.

I don't think there is any way that the Sky train will be able to drop Quintana whatever they do. Even if Quintana is isolated I don't think he's in much trouble; it's only Froome that can put him in any difficulty. On the other hand, if Quintana wants to attack, he doesn't want Froome to be getting towed back up to him by 3 teammates.

You didn't get me I think
If Henao and Froom drop Valverde on beixalis, they can both attack on the descent and drop Nairo
Henao and Froome are (supposedly) quite capable of dropping an Isolated Nairo on the descent.

I'm not sure about that. It's a 7km fairly technical descent - completely different and much shorter than today, and one where the lighter rider would have advantages over a heavier one.
In any event, I don't think Sky would even want to risk that. They will want to have as many riders as possible to deter or control a Quintana attack on Arcalis. A slow pace suits them fine on a stage like this; they'd much rather have Landa, Thomas and Henao all there to suffocate the race, than basically have a mano v mano Froome against Quintana, even if Froome had somehow gained 10-15 seconds on the descent. With a 20 second lead for Froome and two time trials to come, it's up to Quintana to make the running now.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Time for Valverde to prove his worth as a domestique. He needs to set a tempo high enough on the steep part of Beixalis to destroy Sky's remaining domestiques, and then leaving Quintana to battle it out mano a mano with Froome on Arcalis.

You are overestimating Valverde a bit

Not really. Valverde's 3-5 minute climbing power is probably the best in the peloton. He could put anyone into difficulty with a hard five minute effort. We've seen that time and time again in one day races.

Of course, we have very rarely seen that in GTs because he's always pacing himself for GC. But if he's not bothered about finishing high up and is willing to blow himself up for Quintana, then he is an amazing asset to have.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Is it still double points for a summit finish for the mountains jersey?

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

Is it still double points for a summit finish for the mountains jersey?

Yes

 

[Gigs_98]

I think Quintana looked stronger than froome today. I'm not sure if he is strong enogh to win but I at least dont think he will be dropped.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Is it still double points for a summit finish for the mountains jersey?

Yes

All 4 jerseys might be held by Brits at the end of tomorrow then

 

[Hayabusa]

I reckon it'll be close between Froome and Quintana, with whichever comes out on top winning by no more than 15 seconds.

 

[Poursuivant]

No love for the break? Froome said at the end of today he had nothing left, Sky might softpedal the early climbs.

 

[sir fly]

Re:

No love for the break? Froome said at the end of today he had nothing left, Sky might softpedal the early climbs.

High probability of breakaway. imo.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

No love for the break? Froome said at the end of today he had nothing left, Sky might softpedal the early climbs.

High probability of breakaway. imo.

I agree. This isn't the kind of stage where one team can easily reel in the break. Stages like these you get large breakaways of strong climbers and only a few riders of one or two teams pulling the peloton for large parts of the race. And then Arcalis is not really a climb where you pull back many minutes. I found it quite telling today that a rider like Majka was caught on Val Louron and wasn't dropped until the Peyresourde. Also, Froome has his stage and won't be agressive I think.

Ventoux is where the GC guy's will win again.

 

[Andro]

If Valverde was willing to completely sacrifice himself, I'm sure he could do a big effort and destroy the group of favorites until it was down to 5-6 riders. However I doubt he's willing to blow himself up like that and sacrifice his own GC.

 

[StryderHells]

Re:

If Valverde was willing to completely sacrifice himself, I'm sure he could do a big effort and destroy the group of favorites until it was down to 5-6 riders. However I doubt he's willing to blow himself up like that and sacrifice his own GC.

I honestly don't think Valverde cares about his own GC position in this years race, he got his podium last year and has the Giro in his legs so I think he's all in for Quintana.

 

[SeriousSam]

I'm hoping Unzue reads this thread and implements the DFA123 plan