2016 Tour de France, Info & Discussion

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Tbh, I think Tinkoff's third best climber (Kreuziger) is better than any other team's third best. Who cares what the strength of the 5th dude is, the last two mountain stages are junior length and the Swiss stage is mostly flat until the end.

I'm not sure that I would rate Kreuziger as the best of the third best, but I agree with your main point anyway.

What exactly is Contador going to do with a couple of extra low level climbers anyway? Do people imagine that he was going to try to out-mountain train Sky, Astana and Movistar but now can't? As long as one or two of his three climbers are with him when the group is very small, he will be fine. If he gets beaten it will be because Froome or Quintana (or someone else) is stronger than him, not because of some tactical mistake having an extra weakest climbing domestique would have fixed.

I think you are right.

Maybe what some other posters were trying to say was that in the event that Contador gets the yellow jersey that would potentially be the only case where he would be exposed. Other than that he should be fine.

 

[infeXio]

Quite looking forward to seeing what Astana can do here

 

[b.broadhurst]

6 of Team Sky could place in the top 15 if they were to ride for themselves.

So it's pointless to compare anyone to them as no one will be able to out muscle them in the mountains.

 

[Hakkapelit]

Who do you'all recon took Hansens supposed place?

You could say Tinkoff doesn't have the highend mountain support some other teams may have, but can't say they have any deadmeat on this time either wich could be argued they hade some of the preciding years. So perhaps a bit weaker than other teams in certain areas but stronger on the flat,but at least on par if not better than earlier years.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Who do you'all recon took Hansens supposed place?

Gatto in terms of Tinkoff wanting to support Contador more and Kiserlovski once Gatto was decided, Kiserlovski just is slightly better/more experienced probably. I haven't really followed who did better of the two, they seemed pretty equal

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

6 of Team Sky could place in the top 15 if they were to ride for themselves.

So it's pointless to compare anyone to them as no one will be able to out muscle them in the mountains.

Assuming they are all in top form. We can't draw any conclusions about what will actually happen on the road.

 

[Netserk]

If everyone is on top form and every single rider in the Tour aims for GC, I only see 2 Sky riders in the top-10, in the top-15 I still think 2 would be more likely than 3, but it'd be close.

Unless there's people deluded enough to think that Henao and Thomas are better GT riders than Bardet

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

What exactly is Contador going to do with a couple of extra low level climbers anyway? Do people imagine that he was going to try to out-mountain train Sky, Astana and Movistar but now can't? As long as one or two of his three climbers are with him when the group is very small, he will be fine. If he gets beaten it will be because Froome or Quintana (or someone else) is stronger than him, not because of some tactical mistake having an extra weakest climbing domestique would have fixed.

Well, there are really multiple scenarios that the race can go with and we can't be sure before it happens. It's quite likely this won't cost Contador at all. But...

First of all, it makes Tinkoff much more vulnerable in case of losing one rider. Losing Majka or Kreuziger due to carsh or illness will be bigger blow for Contador than losing Landa for Froome or losing Valverde for Quintana.

And then having more climbers allows you to put a couple in every big breakaway on multi-mountain stage. You never know if sometimes the race explodes early and those guys put in early break will be decisive on flat/false flat sections between climbs. If you don't have enough climbing depth in the team, you might run out of people to cover every big move. It's maybe 10% chance per Tour that a stage like this happen and will be relevant for GC, but it might happen.

All in all: you never know. Having only 3 climbers out of 8 domestiques in the team is kind of risk. You may get away with it, but there's a chance for some circumstances to occur that you'll be hugely disadvantaged by this.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Tbh, I think Tinkoff's third best climber (Kreuziger) is better than any other team's third best. Who cares what the strength of the 5th dude is, the last two mountain stages are junior length and the Swiss stage is mostly flat until the end.

I'm not sure that I would rate Kreuziger as the best of the third best, but I agree with your main point anyway.

What exactly is Contador going to do with a couple of extra low level climbers anyway? Do people imagine that he was going to try to out-mountain train Sky, Astana and Movistar but now can't? As long as one or two of his three climbers are with him when the group is very small, he will be fine. If he gets beaten it will be because Froome or Quintana (or someone else) is stronger than him, not because of some tactical mistake having an extra weakest climbing domestique would have fixed.

And with this line up, he shouldn't be losing any silly time in wind etc.

You make a good point. Their goal shouldn't be to have a mountain train as strong as Sky or Movistar. They need 1 or 2 strong riders who can stay with Alberto for a long time on the final climb, and then if Alberto feels good, Majka can up the pace. They have to use the same tactic as last year: let Kreuziger and finally Majka lead out an attack by Alberto. Riding tempo will not break Froome at all, that is exactly how he wants to ride.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

What exactly is Contador going to do with a couple of extra low level climbers anyway? Do people imagine that he was going to try to out-mountain train Sky, Astana and Movistar but now can't? As long as one or two of his three climbers are with him when the group is very small, he will be fine. If he gets beaten it will be because Froome or Quintana (or someone else) is stronger than him, not because of some tactical mistake having an extra weakest climbing domestique would have fixed.

Well, there are really multiple scenarios that the race can go with and we can't be sure before it happens. It's quite likely this won't cost Contador at all. But...

First of all, it makes Tinkoff much more vulnerable in case of losing one rider. Losing Majka or Kreuziger due to carsh or illness will be bigger blow for Contador than losing Landa for Froome or losing Valverde for Quintana.

And then having more climbers allows you to put a couple in every big breakaway on multi-mountain stage. You never know if sometimes the race explodes early and those guys put in early break will be decisive on flat/false flat sections between climbs. If you don't have enough climbing depth in the team, you might run out of people to cover every big move. It's maybe 10% chance per Tour that a stage like this happen, but it might happen.

All in all: you never know. Having only 3 climbers out of 8 domestiques in the team is kind of risk. You may get away with it, but there's a chance for some circumstances to occur that you'll be hugely disadvantaged by this.

Very good post.

.. but considering how the Tour has played out in recent years, especially under Sky, it pretty much always just comes down to the final climb. Who knows. Its stages 8, 15, 19 and 20 those lower level climbers will be relevant. A guy like Valggren or Sagan might also be pretty useful, especially on the flat obviously between climbs obviously. And then 2 last stages are constructed such that there always is 5-15 kilometres of flat/false flat/bit descending between the climbs and in those scenarios, they will be stronger than say Kiserlovski. We all saw what happened in PN.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

I think you are right.

Maybe what some other posters were trying to say was that in the event that Contador gets the yellow jersey that would potentially be the only case where he would be exposed. Other than that he should be fine.

I think if Alberto takes yellow, it will only be in the third week or at best late in the 2nd week. Tinkoff should be able to handle that, especially because Sky always seems to be happy to do the work regardless of their position. And at this point in the race the GC should be sorted well enough that only 1 or 2 real threats are left. So it's not like a one week race in which you have to watch as many as 10 riders if you're in the lead.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

What exactly is Contador going to do with a couple of extra low level climbers anyway? Do people imagine that he was going to try to out-mountain train Sky, Astana and Movistar but now can't? As long as one or two of his three climbers are with him when the group is very small, he will be fine.

Problem is that the only one of them who can actually climb (anymore) won't be of much use as he won't bury himself for his team leader. Majka has shown this time and again. Kreuziger has been mediocre on actual climbs since his eyebrow-raising TDF a couple years ago. I doubt he'll stay with Contador for long if the group is very small. Kiserlovski? Never mind.

It may not matter, but it does not look great on paper.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Problem is that the only one of them who can actually climb (anymore) won't be of much use as he won't bury himself for his team leader. Majka has shown this time and again. Kreuziger has been mediocre on actual climbs since his eyebrow-raising TDF a couple years ago. I doubt he'll stay with Contador for long if the group is very small. Kiserlovski? Never mind.

It may not matter, but it does not look great on paper.

Why won't Majka bury himself for Contador? He's done that every time he raced with him so far. Yes, in 2014 he was complaining before the Tour, but not because he didn't want to work for Contador, he simply did not want to ride the Tour because he had already raced the Giro.
Kreuziger looked pretty good at the Dauphiné as did Kiserlovski. I think they will do just fine. No, Kreuziger won't be as good as in 2013 (he would have finished 4th if not for Contador) but even 90% of that form would be more than enough.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Tbh, I think Tinkoff's third best climber (Kreuziger) is better than any other team's third best. Who cares what the strength of the 5th dude is, the last two mountain stages are junior length and the Swiss stage is mostly flat until the end.

I'm not sure that I would rate Kreuziger as the best of the third best, but I agree with your main point anyway.

What exactly is Contador going to do with a couple of extra low level climbers anyway? Do people imagine that he was going to try to out-mountain train Sky, Astana and Movistar but now can't? As long as one or two of his three climbers are with him when the group is very small, he will be fine. If he gets beaten it will be because Froome or Quintana (or someone else) is stronger than him, not because of some tactical mistake having an extra weakest climbing domestique would have fixed.

And with this line up, he shouldn't be losing any silly time in wind etc.

You make a good point. Their goal shouldn't be to have a mountain train as strong as Sky or Movistar. They need 1 or 2 strong riders who can stay with Alberto for a long time on the final climb, and then if Alberto feels good, Majka can up the pace. They have to use the same tactic as last year: let Kreuziger and finally Majka lead out an attack by Alberto. Riding tempo will not break Froome at all, that is exactly how he wants to ride.

Exactly,Alberto needs attacks like last Dauphine stage but instead of him Majka amd Kreuziger should drop Poels,Henao,Landa,Thomas and whodfvckever from Sky

 

[bassano]

Re:

Now that we know the big team rosters I think that Movistar has the best team this year. Quintana just has to do his part and he can win this. Unless of course Contador is amazing (I hope) or Froome is in his career best form and has improved compared to previous years.

This time quintana have advantage that Contador and Aru definitelly will attack Froome ( if they will be competitive) and he can use it, hopefully he will not use strong movistar to defend but to attack

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

Why won't Majka bury himself for Contador? He's done that every time he raced with him so far. Yes, in 2014 he was complaining before the Tour, but not because he didn't want to work for Contador, he simply did not want to ride the Tour because he had already raced the Giro.
Kreuziger looked pretty good at the Dauphiné as did Kiserlovski. I think they will do just fine. No, Kreuziger won't be as good as in 2013 (he would have finished 4th if not for Contador) but even 90% of that form would be more than enough.

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/racing/tour-de-france/tinkoff-saxo-blame-broken-radio-as-contador-loses-more-time-183949

“Rafal was asked to sit and wait, but he said he didn’t hear us, so that means the radio stopped working,” Sports Director Sean Yates told Cycling Weekly.

“If he said he didn’t hear us, then he didn’t. But we told him on numerous occasions, and so did the car that was behind him…”

Yates added that their two-way radios do not malfunction often, but that he had to take Majka’s word “on face value”.

“We couldn’t bridge up to him because we were too far back. We told him on the radio that he had to stop, but apparently the message didn’t come across,” Sports Director Steven De Jongh added.

“First of all, it’s disappointing, and… what more can I say?”

Majka, who finished almost five minutes ahead of Contador, said that no one asked him to stop."




BS excuses aside. That was his shittiest move to date, and it was in last year's TDF.

In the Pyrenees it was already clear that he wouldn't be of much use. Sure, he did *some* work -- but he was really only looking out for numero uno.

 

[Robert5091]

My prediction? The fastest average speeds of a TdF (from looking at the teams).

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

BS excuses aside. That was his shittiest move to date, and it was in last year's TDF.

In the Pyrenees it was already clear that he wouldn't be of much use. Sure, he did *some* work -- but he was really only looking out for numero uno.

At the Vuelta later that year, Jesper Hansen kept pulling the group despite Sagan having been taken out by a moto. I'm sure you don't believe he disobeyed team orders on purpose, so maybe there was truly something wrong with the team radio.

It was one little incident, many times Majka worked hard for Alberto

 

[Oliwright]

Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion & Info

Does anyone else feel slightly disappointed with the depth of Etix's team:
Julian Alaphilippe (Fra)
Marcel Kittel (Ger)
Daniel Martin (Irl)
Tony Martin (Ger)

These 4 are very strong but the other 5 are a bit underwhelming imo? They sent such a strong team to the Giro, where is Terpstra and Stybar?

Maximiliano Richeze (Arg)
Fabio Sabatini (Ita)
Petr Vakoc (Cze)
Julien Vermote (Bel)
Iljo Keisse (Bel)

 

[LaFlorecita]

That is a pretty strong squad, legendary Richeze will win a stage for sure like in Tour de Suisse. Vakoc and Keisse are probably as strong as Stybar and Terpstra.
You have to keep in mind that riders without much personal success can still be great domestiques. So while those 5 may not have achieved much (although Vakoc is doing well) they will surely be very strong as domestiques.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion & Info

Does anyone else feel slightly disappointed with the depth of Etix's team:
Julian Alaphilippe (Fra)
Marcel Kittel (Ger)
Daniel Martin (Irl)
Tony Martin (Ger)

These 4 are very strong but the other 5 are a bit underwhelming imo? They sent such a strong team to the Giro, where is Terpstra and Stybar?

Maximiliano Richeze (Arg)
Fabio Sabatini (Ita)
Petr Vakoc (Cze)
Julien Vermote (Bel)
Iljo Keisse (Bel)

I think it's almost the perfect squad for what they want to do. Richeze is currently one of the best leadout men in the peloton. Perhaps only Guarnieri comes close at the moment. Sabatini is an important part of the train as well. Vakoc is a nice addition in my opinion. He can help Alaphillippe/Martin on the stages suited to them and help control the flat stages. Keisse and Vermote are doing the hard work earlier on the stages.

Terpstra might have been slightly better than Keisse or Vermote, though I'm not even sure about that, and ideally they'd want Jungels in there as well, but that's obviously out of the question.

 

[GP Blanco]

Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion & Info

Does anyone else feel slightly disappointed with the depth of Etix's team:
Julian Alaphilippe (Fra)
Marcel Kittel (Ger)
Daniel Martin (Irl)
Tony Martin (Ger)

These 4 are very strong but the other 5 are a bit underwhelming imo? They sent such a strong team to the Giro, where is Terpstra and Stybar?

Maximiliano Richeze (Arg)
Fabio Sabatini (Ita)
Petr Vakoc (Cze)
Julien Vermote (Bel)
Iljo Keisse (Bel)

I think it's almost the perfect squad for what they want to do. Richeze is currently one of the best leadout men in the peloton. Perhaps only Guarnieri comes close at the moment. Sabatini is an important part of the train as well. Vakoc is a nice addition in my opinion. He can help Alaphillippe/Martin on the stages suited to them and help control the flat stages. Keisse and Vermote are doing the hard work earlier on the stages.

Terpstra might have been slightly better than Keisse or Vermote, though I'm not even sure about that, and ideally they'd want Jungels in there as well, but that's obviously out of the question.

For the role they have have to fullfil, Keisse and Vermote are far better suited than Terpstra who is injured at this moment.

 

[Oliwright]

Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion & Info

I'm just used to looking at Ettix's lineup and being amazed and jealous and i'm not as impressed this year. Despite this i do think they have some great riders! Vakoc & Richeze are so underrated. But when you think you could have
Jungels, Stybar, Terpstra ,Trentin and even Boonen. But that approach didn't always work under Cav so maybe changing it up is for the gd.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion & Info

Does anyone else feel slightly disappointed with the depth of Etix's team:
Julian Alaphilippe (Fra)
Marcel Kittel (Ger)
Daniel Martin (Irl)
Tony Martin (Ger)

These 4 are very strong but the other 5 are a bit underwhelming imo? They sent such a strong team to the Giro, where is Terpstra and Stybar?

Maximiliano Richeze (Arg)
Fabio Sabatini (Ita)
Petr Vakoc (Cze)
Julien Vermote (Bel)
Iljo Keisse (Bel)

I think it's almost the perfect squad for what they want to do. Richeze is currently one of the best leadout men in the peloton. Perhaps only Guarnieri comes close at the moment. Sabatini is an important part of the train as well. Vakoc is a nice addition in my opinion. He can help Alaphillippe/Martin on the stages suited to them and help control the flat stages. Keisse and Vermote are doing the hard work earlier on the stages.

Terpstra might have been slightly better than Keisse or Vermote, though I'm not even sure about that, and ideally they'd want Jungels in there as well, but that's obviously out of the question.

For the role they have have to fullfil, Keisse and Vermote are far better suited than Terpstra who is injured at this moment.

They might be, it's hard to tell, but I suspect you might be right. I didn't know that Terpstra was injuried though.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

At the Vuelta later that year, Jesper Hansen kept pulling the group despite Sagan having been taken out by a moto. I'm sure you don't believe he disobeyed team orders on purpose, so maybe there was truly something wrong with the team radio.

It was one little incident, many times Majka worked hard for Alberto

A little incident that could cost Contador a spot or more on GC? I'd call that a major incident.

I'm not the only one who believes that Majka intentionally ignored team orders, BTW. It's obvious to me that his team didn't believe him, either. From the different excuses "his radio didn't work" vs. "it was on the wrong channel" to the way they phrased it. If that didn't convince you, that's understandable, but this is a lot more to the point:

http://ekstrabladet.dk/sport/cykling/ballade-hos-saxo-majka-i-taarer-efter-egoist-stempel/5658778

Straight from Faustino Muñoz. Majka is an egotistical ***, according to Contador's mechanic. Clearly he did not even consider the possibility that he was telling the truth. He was mad AF. They know how he rolls and that he only does the bare minimum when he does work for Contador. I thought everyone could see that, BTW. Do you (or anyone else) really believe he puts in the amount of effort of a Kreuziger, Landa, Kiri, Nieve, Herrada, etc. etc.?

But yeah, the 2016 TDF. It will be interesting to see if he'll change his attitude at all, with the team folding and whatnot.