2016 Tour de France, Info & Discussion

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Jul 29, 2012
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Netserk said:
When is the last time Bouhanni caused a crash that had another rider injured?
Your point is what exactly?

It's not because there are no victims that he isn't a danger, there's the chance of luck. For some reason Bouhanni likes to play with that chance.

I rather not have riders in the peloton who play with matches the whole time, i don't care if he gets burned but i do care about the others.
 
Short term, you are correct, but if he truly was a danger, luck wouldn't have prevented him from not causing more crashes than he has, long term.

Obviously, he isn't the danger he is made out to be.
 
Jul 29, 2012
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I judge behaviour, not the consequences. I think that's narrow minded.

Why did a crash happen? What is it a riders's fault? Was it on purpose? Was it the first time?

It's hard to judge intent of course, but a rider like Bouhanni is definitely a danger on a bike and he keeps repeating it. That no crashes happen because of him is for me almost irrelevant. Based on his background he also doesn't learn, he doesn't care either, he's just a kid that never grew up and rather uses his fists than anything else.

Letting someone like that ride on a bike at speeds of 70/80 km is imo irresponsible.

One day a big crash will happen cause of him, it's inevitable. Cycling could have stopped that, there's enough reason imo.
 
Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion & Info

Oliwright said:
I'm just used to looking at Ettix's lineup and being amazed and jealous and i'm not as impressed this year. Despite this i do think they have some great riders! Vakoc & Richeze are so underrated. But when you think you could have
Jungels, Stybar, Terpstra ,Trentin and even Boonen. But that approach didn't always work under Cav so maybe changing it up is for the gd.
They have brought their best available riders for all potential leadership or specialist roles - their best sprinter, their best leadout, their best hilly riders, their best climbers, their best TT man.

For the out and out domestique roles, guys to work on the front to bring back the break and form the earlier parts of their train, they have brought relatively low profile career domestiques rather than bigger names. That seems quite shrewd to me. It being Etixx they have no shortage of riders who can perform the flatland domestique role to perfection. They could fill multiple teams with such riders. It makes sense to prefer the guys who have already been working together as a train and who won't have any ego or any slight ambition of their own lurking at the back of their minds.

They already have a leader or leaders for every type of stage. What they want for the other spots are guys who can be relied upon to put out big horsepower whenever required by those leaders and work together seamlessly in so doing. That's a better idea than putting together a somewhat random assembly of stars.
 
Re:

Netserk said:
Short term, you are correct, but if he truly was a danger, luck wouldn't have prevented him from not causing more crashes than he has, long term.

Obviously, he isn't the danger he is made out to be.
This is exactly right. Luck doesn't hold over time. He's been in many, many sprints by now. If he was a particular danger, as compared to other sprinters, we'd have evidence of that in the form of broken bones and mass pileups caused by him. We don't.
 
Re: Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
Netserk said:
Short term, you are correct, but if he truly was a danger, luck wouldn't have prevented him from not causing more crashes than he has, long term.

Obviously, he isn't the danger he is made out to be.
This is exactly right. Luck doesn't hold over time. He's been in many, many sprints by now. If he was a particular danger, as compared to other sprinters, we'd have evidence of that in the form of broken bones and mass pileups caused by him. We don't.
That's a fair point assuming his sprinting and style has remained consistent over that time. I think there is a fairly strong argument that he has become quite a bit more reckless and dangerous this season. And that has been in races up against just two or three other sprinters usually. In the TdF, with seven or eight sprinters and their teams all battling to get on Kittel's wheel, a sprinter riding like Bouhanni has done this season would be a disaster waiting to happen.
 
Aug 4, 2010
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Re: Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
Netserk said:
Short term, you are correct, but if he truly was a danger, luck wouldn't have prevented him from not causing more crashes than he has, long term.

Obviously, he isn't the danger he is made out to be.
This is exactly right. Luck doesn't hold over time. He's been in many, many sprints by now. If he was a particular danger, as compared to other sprinters, we'd have evidence of that in the form of broken bones and mass pileups caused by him. We don't.
Thats right,but do we have enough samples? (e.g. 100 sprints could be all right and then for example 110th and 120th sprint can be a huge crash because of him :p )
 
Usually, you'd say a sample of 50 is big enough to infer sound conclusions from. The actual sample size (over his career) is obviously bigger than that. One could do a comparative statistical analysis between him and another sprinter, to see if there's basis for the conclusion that he is more dangerous than that particular sprinter.
 
Jun 6, 2015
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Team Katusha (via Cycling Stats)

RODRÍGUEZ, Joaquim
KRISTOFF, Alexander
MØRKØV, Michael
HALLER, Marco
LOSADA, Alberto
VICIOSO, Ángel
VAN DEN BROECK, Jurgen
GUARNIERI, Jacopo
ZAKARIN, Ilnur

Zakarin has made a speedy recovery after his recent crash. If fit, he could go quite well at a big price.
 
Re:

Netserk said:
Usually, you'd say a sample of 50 is big enough to infer sound conclusions from. The actual sample size (over his career) is obviously bigger than that. One could do a comparative statistical analysis between him and another sprinter, to see if there's basis for the conclusion that he is more dangerous than that particular sprinter.
You sound like SeriousSam. I like it.

And I also like Bouhanni. Need people like him in the sport, I love the drama.
 
Jun 30, 2014
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ATM it looks like we'll get a strong westwind on stage one, but if my memory is correct there should be a decent amount of shelter on the first half of the stage that goes alongside the coast, so I don't know if it's going to be a normal sprint stage or total carnage.
Edit: I'd love to see Astana go berserk on stage 5.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
sir fly said:
Valv.Piti said:
Valv.Piti said:
So hows does the weather look like on the first couple of stages? Praying for no rain.
Looks like the first 3-4 days will be very cloudy, but not rainy
You're so anxious that you've started talking to yourself.
Go do something with Red Rick, his enthusiasm is a bit low.
I can't waaaaaaaaaait, mummy, make it staaaaaaaart
Glad to see you in that kind of mood.
I'm looking forward to Saturday, but some everyday hassles are keeping me grounded.
Hopefully, by the weekend I'll get in the mood.
 
Re:

Netserk said:
Short term, you are correct, but if he truly was a danger, luck wouldn't have prevented him from not causing more crashes than he has, long term.

Obviously, he isn't the danger he is made out to be.
perhaps, but maybe everyone knows he is a cycling handgrenade, and therefore allows him the extra room, which prevents the crashes occurring?
 
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/team-sky-ready-to-help-froome-win-a-third-tour-de-france/

Froome described targeting a third Tour de France victory as the “toughest challenge in my career to date” but looked lean, if not leaner than in previous years. The atmosphere was relaxed but also serious as the clock began to tick down in earnest to Saturday’s opening stage.
Well, if that's indication of how he will be riding then I wish Nairo and Alberto the best of luck, because if he's in that type of form and they beat him and of one of the best teams in recent memory then they fully deserve to win.
 
I hope it is not like the 2004 Tour where we thought that LA was going to have the toughest challenge coming out of the great 2003 Tour. I know 2015 was not great but it got closer. Well, we'll see. I just hope to have a great Tour. All ingredients are there. Hope to see Contador in top shape. No excuses.
 
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Escarabajo said:
I hope it is not like the 2004 Tour where we thought that LA was going to have the toughest challenge coming out of the great 2003 Tour. I know 2015 was not great but it got closer. Well, we'll see. I just hope to have a great Tour. All ingredients are there. Hope to see Contador in top shape. No excuses.
Agree. The one thing I look forward to the most is Quintana vs Froome vs Contador all in good shape. No excuses. That said, they all had optimal conditions in their preparations for the 2013 Tour, so we have already had this scenario happen once.
 
Re: Re:

Hugo Koblet said:
Escarabajo said:
I hope it is not like the 2004 Tour where we thought that LA was going to have the toughest challenge coming out of the great 2003 Tour. I know 2015 was not great but it got closer. Well, we'll see. I just hope to have a great Tour. All ingredients are there. Hope to see Contador in top shape. No excuses.
Agree. The one thing I look forward to the most is Quintana vs Froome vs Contador all in good shape. No excuses. That said, they all had optimal conditions in their preparations for the 2013 Tour, so we have already had this scenario happen once.
Yeah but Quintana didn't start as a leader and Contador was shitty for the whole season. This year the three riders together have won 4 WT stage races and there is only one single WT stage race which one of the big three entered and didn't win, which was PN, and Contador still got 2nd and was the strongest climber there.
Therefore this year really nobody has excuses since everyones preparation was relatively good and you can't say one of them has been bad for the whole season.
 
Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion & Info

I just went through the official startlist, this time looking at the starting numbers specifically.

Weird: in case of several teams (Tinkoff, Movistar, Astana), there is a co-leader (?) wearing number "x2" on his bib, regardless of what is his name (what triggers that the alphabetical order of riders wearing numbers from "x2" to "x9" is altered).

It looks like this:
11. Quintana, 12. Valverde, 13. Anacona
21. Aru, 22. Nibali, 23. Fuglsang
31. Contador, 32. Sagan, 33. Bodnar

Not the best idea IMO. Until now, the "x2-x9 in alphabetical order" rule was strictly observed in the TdF. I hardly see any reasons to make exception from that rule in case of any rider, even if he is reigning world champion or former TdF winner.

And, if we give "x1-x2" numbers to Quintana-Valverde, Aru-Nibali and Contador-Sagan, why not to do the same with e.g. Barguil-Degenkolb or Porte-TvG?
 
Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion & Info

*** the quick said:
I just went through the official startlist, this time looking at the starting numbers specifically.

Weird: in case of several teams (Tinkoff, Movistar, Astana), there is a co-leader (?) wearing number "x2" on his bib, regardless of what is his name (what triggers that the alphabetical order of riders wearing numbers from "x2" to "x9" is altered).

It looks like this:
11. Quintana, 12. Valverde, 13. Anacona
21. Aru, 22. Nibali, 23. Fuglsang
31. Contador, 32. Sagan, 33. Bodnar

Not the best idea IMO. Until now, the "x2-x9 in alphabetical order" rule was strictly observed in the TdF. I hardly see any reasons to make exception from that rule in case of any rider, even if he is reigning world champion or former TdF winner.

And, if we give "x1-x2" numbers to Quintana-Valverde, Aru-Nibali and Contador-Sagan, why not to do the same with e.g. Barguil-Degenkolb or Porte-TvG?
I really don't see this as being remotely a problem. What difference does it make? Footballers used to wear 1-11, now they don't and nobody cares.
 

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