2016 Tour de France, Info & Discussion

[Sciocco]

Weekend only stages:
http://i.imgur.com/hn58vM7.png

Three bunch sprints.
Four mountain stages (Culoz stage may be my favorite of the race).
That stage two hill top finish.

Actually seems better than what the Giro put on the weekends this year:
3 ITTs
2 Sprints
2 Mountain stages
1 Alpe di Poti stage

 

[Ricco']

Re:

Actually seems better than what the Giro put on the weekends this year:
3 ITTs
2 Sprints
2 Mountain stages
1 Alpe di Poti stage

Technically the Apeldoorn TT was on a Friday, so:

2 ITT (1 Mountain)
3 Sprints
2 Mountain stages
1 Alpe di Poti Stage

 

[Brullnux]

Surely there was a better fill on that Saturday (Stage 14) than a boring flat stage? Like perhaps moving the ITT to that day or creating a medium mountain stage in that area? Having a sprint stage on the third weekend is quite poor really. I know it's hard to avoid it because of how France is made but still.

 

[SevenTimeTdfChamp]

The only thing that is bs is rateing Quintanas chances of winning higher than contadors

**** Froome/Contador
***Quintana
**Aru
*Pinot/ TVG/Porte

 

[Sciocco]

Re: Re:

Actually seems better than what the Giro put on the weekends this year:
3 ITTs
2 Sprints
2 Mountain stages
1 Alpe di Poti stage

Technically the Apeldoorn TT was on a Friday, so:

2 ITT (1 Mountain)
3 Sprints
2 Mountain stages
1 Alpe di Poti Stage

Thanks, I totally forgot about that first rest day.
It makes it even worse...

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Does anybody know which stages will be broadcasted in their entirety? I could imagine stages 1,2 and 3 as usual, 9, hopefully 15, and then 19, 20 and 21.

Allow me to (somewhat) answer my own question for those who are interested!

Got my hands on a Tour magazine today, or my little brother did (which makes it mine), and according to that, the following stages will be broadcasted in its entirety: 1, 9, 15, 19, 20 and 21. That means mountain stages 5, 7, 8, 12 and 17 won't - the stages with a couple of hours of flat before the mountains. Very good stuff from ASO in broadcasting stage 15 from the beginning and choosing the right ones, altho I must admit I would probably have tuned in from the start on any mountain stage.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

Does anybody know which stages will be broadcasted in their entirety? I could imagine stages 1,2 and 3 as usual, 9, hopefully 15, and then 19, 20 and 21.

Allow me to (somewhat) answer my own question for those who are interested!

Got my hands on a Tour magazine today, or my little brother did (which makes it mine), and according to that, the following stages will be broadcasted in its entirety: 1, 9, 15, 19, 20 and 21. That means mountain stages 5, 7, 8, 12 and 17 won't - the stages with a couple of hours of flat before the mountains. Very good stuff from ASO in broadcasting stage 15 from the beginning and choosing the right ones, altho I must admit I would probably have tuned in from the start on any mountain stage.

Thank you very much Piti.

 

[Valv.Piti]

No worries, Im onto these things, yo.

Looking at these profiles made me hyped. It always does, but the stage to Bern still makes me a little sad. How is it possible on 2 stages in Switzerland to make 1 3/4 of the stages almost completely flat? Well, Michael Rasmussen made the very obvious point (that I hadn't thought about) that the stage to Bern was tailor-made for Cancellara and I must admit, it would be beautiful if he managed to pull it off.

 

[sir fly]

Re:

No worries, Im onto these things, yo.

Looking at these profiles made me hyped. It always does, but the stage to Bern still makes me a little sad. How is it possible on 2 stages in Switzerland to make 1 3/4 of the stages almost completely flat? Well, Michael Rasmussen made the very obvious point (that I hadn't thought about) that the stage to Bern was tailor-made for Cancellara and I must admit, it would be beautiful if he managed to pull it off.

Yes, the stage to Bern was a surprise to me, as well. I wonder if there can be made a stage in Switzerland with less altitude gain... I'm exaggerating a bit, but the point is clear. Though, the racing could be spectacular. Last chance for classics' riders and rouleur stage hunters.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

No worries, Im onto these things, yo.

Looking at these profiles made me hyped. It always does, but the stage to Bern still makes me a little sad. How is it possible on 2 stages in Switzerland to make 1 3/4 of the stages almost completely flat? Well, Michael Rasmussen made the very obvious point (that I hadn't thought about) that the stage to Bern was tailor-made for Cancellara and I must admit, it would be beautiful if he managed to pull it off.

Yes, the stage to Bern was a surprise to me, as well. I wonder if there can be made a stage in Switzerland with less altitude gain... I'm exaggerating a bit, but the point is clear. Though, the racing could be spectacular. Last chance for classics' riders and rouleur stage hunters.

Yep, its a very obvious breakaway stage for the rouleurs. I refuse to believe that any team will try to control this stage with the difficult finish - we have really lacked some stages for the strong roulers to hunt stages, so no worries.

 

[roundabout]

Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion

Is there really a difficult finish on the stage to Bern? Or rather a finish that would be too difficult for a punchy sprinter?

 

[sir fly]

Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion

Is there really a difficult finish on the stage to Bern? Or rather a finish that would be too difficult for a punchy sprinter?

The finish itself looks like a mile - mile and a half uphill drag. But the preceding 20 or so kilometres are made for attacks from a breakaway and everything that follows them... hesitating, waiting, refusing, dealing, bridging... A bit like Paris - Tours.

 

[roundabout]

Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion

While I wouldn't pretend that I know Bern and the surroundings inside out, I have been there and in my opinion the final climb from the river (probably from Bärengraben at a guess) to Stade de Suisse is not really tough enough to exclude all sprinters.

 

[portugal11]

stage 1 of this tour will be chaotic. gc riders will fighting for a better position in peloton and crosswinds are very frequents in western france. i'm afraid that a massive crash can knockout some of the top boys

 

[rghysens]

Re: 2016 Tour de France Discussion

Is there really a difficult finish on the stage to Bern? Or rather a finish that would be too difficult for a punchy sprinter?

According to Prud'homme at the TdF presentation in october last year, the finish in Bern is comparable to the finish of the AGR: first a climb of 800m or so at 7-8%, then about 1km flat.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Sam, will you make a graph similar to the ones you made in the Giro showing Contador's decreasing odds from late 2015/early 2016 till now? Seems he has went from 7,0 to 3,0-4,0 now.

 

[portugal11]

Re:

Sam, will you make a graph similar to the ones you made in the Giro showing Contador's decreasing odds from late 2015/early 2016 till now? Seems he has went from 7,0 to 3,0-4,0 now.

He has 4.5 since february.

 

[SeriousSam]

 

[Valv.Piti]

Thanks Sam. Hope you will keep us updated

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Sam, will you make a graph similar to the ones you made in the Giro showing Contador's decreasing odds from late 2015/early 2016 till now? Seems he has went from 7,0 to 3,0-4,0 now.

Here it is from a few of the bigger bookies:

 

[Rollthedice]

No bets on Nibali?

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Very stable odds. Nothing like the Giro. More predictable this time. It seems down to three unless crashes occur.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Sam, will you make a graph similar to the ones you made in the Giro showing Contador's decreasing odds from late 2015/early 2016 till now? Seems he has went from 7,0 to 3,0-4,0 now.

He has 4.5 since february.

I refer the Hugo Koblet's post.
Hugo, thanks! Very interesting to see that. Some even had him close to 10!

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

No bets on Nibali?

Consensus seems to be he is the 7th most likely to win, a notch under Aru/Pinot/Porte, but better than G. Thomas and Tejay. Sam has simply just included the 6 most likely

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

No bets on Nibali?

If Nibali wins the Tour is he the greatest rider of this generation?

If he does win it, then Contador fans will finally acknowledge that he won the Giro at a "high level", whereas Nibali got lucky and was able to ride it at 90%, thus making the 'impossible' double more doable