2016 Tour de France, Info & Discussion

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

No bets on Nibali?

If Nibali wins the Tour is he the greatest rider of this generation?

To me, yes.

 

[MovistarRider]

Re: Re:

No bets on Nibali?

If Nibali wins the Tour is he the greatest rider of this generation?

If he does win it, then Contador fans will finally acknowledge that he won the Giro at a "high level", whereas Nibali got lucky and was able to ride it at 90%, thus making the 'impossible' double more doable

Surely if Nibali manages to win his 5th Grand Tour (at the TdF) and beat the odds with a Giro-Tour double, then yes he has to be qualified as the greatest rider of his generation. It was something i've been thinking about myself alot the last week. And the hell with what Contador fans will be thinking.

Will it happen tho? Highly improbable. But if i have learned one thing in cycling its don't ever underestimate Nibali in a Grand Tour.

If the impossible becomes reality though, The Shark would take a big chunk out of Contador's reputation.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

No bets on Nibali?

If Nibali wins the Tour is he the greatest rider of this generation?

If he does win it, then Contador fans will finally acknowledge that he won the Giro at a "high level", whereas Nibali got lucky and was able to ride it at 90%, thus making the 'impossible' double more doable

Surely if Nibali manages to win his 5th Grand Tour (at the TdF) and beat the odds with a Giro-Tour double, then yes he has to be qualified as the greatest rider of his generation. It was something i've been thinking about myself alot the last week. And the hell with what Contador fans will be thinking.

Will it happen tho? Highly improbable. But if i have learned one thing in cycling its don't ever underestimate Nibali in a Grand Tour.

If the impossible becomes reality though, The Shark would take a big chunk out of Contador's reputation.

that's a very rare case when nibs winning the tour is probably even worse than froome winning it.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

No bets on Nibali?

I might include him for completeness. He is one of the Big 4 after all. But he isn't actually targeting the GC, is he? Just in case something were to happen to poor Fabio.

 

[jens_attacks]

nah, he targets rio. he will lose hours in pyrenees.

rolland, on the other hand.....

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

No bets on Nibali?

I might include him for completeness. He is one of the Big 4 after all. But he isn't actually targeting the GC, is he? Just in case something were to happen to poor Fabio.

He isn't. On the other hand he booked 2 weeks in San Pellegrino, the place where Slongo rides up the mountain on a scooter and accelerates like Froome while evaluating Nibali's ability to follow.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

No bets on Nibali?

I might include him for completeness. He is one of the Big 4 after all. But he isn't actually targeting the GC, is he? Just in case something were to happen to poor Fabio.

He isn't. On the other hand he booked 2 weeks in San Pellegrino, the place where Slongo rides up the mountain on a scooter and accelerates like Froome while evaluating Nibali's ability to follow.

Seems like a pleasant holiday destination

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

If Nibali wins the Tour is he the greatest rider of this generation?

What if he wins it after Froome, Contador, Quintana and Pinot crash or get sick?

Seems like a pleasant holiday destination

Yeah, if you're the one on the scooter maybe

 

[SeriousSam]

Following Contador's startling moment of weakness, you may well conjecture that age is at last catching up with him, that his MTT victory was the last bright flicker of a candle that it about to extinguish. But you'd be wrong. Probably.

 

[SeriousSam]

Seeing as Contador was smashed today, it will come as no surprise that his chances to win the Tour have decreased. Froome's have increased, as have Porte's.

Some people seem to disagree Contador is less likely to win than he was before today. Some people don't want to hold irrational beliefs. The intersection of those two groups should keep in mind that believing Contador's chances didn't change requires a constant likelihood ratio. What does that mean?

Imagine Contador goes on to win the Tour. What is the probability we would see today's result under that scenario? Imagine Contador goes on to lose the Tour. What is the chance we'd see today's result under that scenario?

Only if you consider those to be equal should you not downgrade his chances for the Tour.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Missed you around.

 

[Asero831]

Any prediction on Sky's TdF line-up?

 

[Praying Mantis]

I try to get hyped for these races, but really all I can see are long days of black'n'blue skeleton asphyxiated racing ahead.

This time of year man... I miss march and april.

 

[SeriousSam]

I'll be posting The Graph later today, but the picture that emerges from the Dauphine is that there are 3 tiers of riders.

Top favourites. Froome and Quintana

In with a chance: Contador

Long shots: Porte, Aru, Pinot. Maybe Bardet. Perhaps Nibali.


So, in the end, we didn't learn all that much in the last week since that was the picture before the Dauphine too, more or less.

 

[Red Rick]

So. What have we learnt from the Dauphine?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I'll be posting The Graph later today, but the picture that emerges from the Dauphine is that there are 3 tiers of riders.

Top favourites. Froome and Quintana

In with a chance: Contador

Long shots: Porte, Aru, Pinot. Maybe Bardet. Perhaps Nibali.


So, in the end, we didn't learn all that much in the last week since that was the picture before the Dauphine too, more or less.

Good update and definitely agree. Looking forward to the graph, altho it can't be much different to that you posted a few days ago.

 

[HelloDolly]

So what I learned from the Dauphine

Ready for the Tour
Froome (Stannard,Rowe & Henao)
Bardet (& Ag2r)
Martin (& Ettix)
A Yates
Meijnes (men-keys)
EBH
S Cummings

Nearly there
Contador (but not his team)
Rolland (not sure about Cannondale)
Landa (put in work but not with the final 10 climbers on some days)

Nowhere to be seen
Purito
Aru (for him)
JvdB
Pinot (for him)
Anyone from Trek includign Mollema, Hesjedal, Zubeldia
Tony Gallopin
Anyone from Lotto NL Jumob except Bennett but A team not at Dauphine
Poels ( well not for high moutains)
Kwait ..(ill again)
Vockleur (well not seen on TV which is his main goal )
Igor Anton
Moreno

 

[sir fly]

I expected better Contador and worse Froome at the Dauphine. Even more so after the opening prologue.
Better Contador 'cause of his competitive approach, self confidence and pressure he could have put on Sky before the Tour.
Worse Froome because of his spring so far, the third week intentions and 'cause he doesn't need to intimidate anyone anymore.

Also, I thought Pinot would be better than he was.
Richie was pretty much according to my expectations, as was Bardet.
I had no expectations for Aru, his season leading to the Dauphine wasn't good, neither I expect something from him at the Tour. He showed class with the stage victory, but seems to be way off the Tour pace, at the moment. Also, it's his debut TDF, and I think there are differences between Giro, Vuelta and Tour he'll be learning about this July.

 

[boasson]

Re:

Beside chrashes, mechanicals and illnesses:

H2H for the win:

Froome - Quinti


Fight for Podium:

Contador, Aru, Pinot, Bardet


probable disappointments:

Thomas, Porte, Nibali, Van Garderen


possible Top 10 surprises:

JRod, Alaphilippe, Adam Yates

 

[Brullnux]

Contador is not gonna fight for the podium. If he is in Itzulia shape he will fight for the win. Nibali? Really don't expect anything. If he finishes top 10 I will be amazed. I am looking for a stage, same for Rodriguez.

 

[SeriousSam]

So here's the evolution of each rider's chance to win the Tour over the course of the Dauphine. Froome remains the favourite and has increased his lead, Contador is a bit less likely less likely to win than he was coming into the race. If I recall correctly, the odds gap between Contador and Froome in 2014 was much smaller.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

So. What have we learnt from the Dauphine?

Not a whole lot.

Froome and Contador: even. But Sky is much better than Tinkov.

For the riders on Serious Sam's graph:

Pinot and Aru, have work to do, that's not a haiku .

Porte? He looked good, but he seems to have bad karma.

Brigitte Bardet (looks good on a bike ) and Balaphilippe can dynamite things, are not real threats, but let one of them in a break and take 5 minutes, and he'll be in yellow on Bastille Day and dangerous.

The plot thickens. Depending on your allegiance, you can find hope. Nothing really new...

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

So. What have we learnt from the Dauphine?

Not a whole lot.

Froome and Contador: even. But Sky is much better than Tinkov.

For the riders on Serious Sam's graph:

Pinot and Aru, have work to do, that's not a haiku .

Porte? He looked good, but he seems to have bad karma.

Brigitte Bardet (looks good on a bike ) and Balaphilippe can dynamite things, are not real threats, but let one of them in a break and take 5 minutes, and he'll be in yellow on Bastille Day and dangerous.

The plot thickens. Depending on your allegiance, you can find hope. Nothing really new...

Odd.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Sam: The chances of Contador/Froome in 2014 were pretty much even if I remember correctly. Froome came off a relatively subpar performance in 2014 and cracked (due to the crash?) in the last stage of Dauphine where as Contador was on fire the whole year.

This year, Froome is more than twice as probable to win due to Alberto's relatively lacklustre performance in the last 3 stages relative to what we would've expected after his prologue.

Quintana's odds will stay there. If he absolutely demolishes everybody in Sud, not that it will matter, it will probably lower a tad.

What have I learned? That Bardet is a force to be reckoned with. Top-5. I like him.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

I'm particularly interested in the fight for white.