2016 Tour Down Under WT January 19-24 Adelaide

[skidmark]

Re:

I know it's not an incredible sprint field but it seems clear that Ewan has a better turn of speed than last year, or at least better legs left in the finale of a race. That was just dominant. And Kump in 4th - is he finally ready to mix it up in his 3rd go around in the World Tour?

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

I know it's not an incredible sprint field but it seems clear that Ewan has a better turn of speed than last year, or at least better legs left in the finale of a race. That was just dominant. And Kump in 4th - is he finally ready to mix it up in his 3rd go around in the World Tour?

I think it's a mixture of a slightly weak field plus Ewan just being in great form right now.....And yes of course Ewan will continue to get better with age. Does anyone else think his sprinting position is similar to Cav's?...he's so low.

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

Stage 1 profile:

__--___-_____-______-___________

Ande the winner is:

The little Orica kid wearing a little girl skinsuit

I hope I didn't ruin anyone's excitement by posting the winner couple of hours before the finish ...

 

[blackcat]

42x16ss, I posted this in another thread

More likely Ewan ends up like McEwen - able to get over hills that the other pure sprinters can't quite climb with the best.

wow, todays TDU, Ewan showed them a clean set of wheels/heals, he was doing 2 to 1 in the last 100.

He has that cannonball type CdA (slipstream profile, zero frontal aread) when he sprints, exactly like Cav, mebbe even more aero, but, until you get into a wind tunnel, and you cant do it for sprinting, it would be impossible to know, to measure.

point is 46, I think he may just have potential for the bunchies, like Cav. So I was wrong wrong wrong. Now, I reckon Cav is GOAT, so I could not say for another decade about Caleb Ewan and he needs a palmares and results. And Cav is a once in 5generations rider. so silly comparison by me.

Ewan,

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

[quote="Jspear[/url
I think it's a mixture of a slightly weak field plus Ewan just being in great form right now.....And yes of course Ewan will continue to get better with age. Does anyone else think his sprinting position is similar to Cav's?...he's so low.[/quote]

I think your first sentence is the more accurate summation. Ewan IS very quick, that is indisputable and he is in prime sprinting form at this point of the year. The stage was not raced hard which allowed him to make it to the finish and thus compete.

Whilst it is certain that he'll be dropped on any of the stages where they will go uphill with any degree of aggression; he is unlikely to be distanced to the extent of missing any time cuts so it's likely that he picks up another sprint stage or high placing.

Drawing any further inferances with regards to his longer season prospects is another matter. He still has to convince that he actually has the engine to hang onto the peleton when they really drop the hammer from a fair distance out let alone survive serious mountains within time limits.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

I think your first sentence is the more accurate summation. Ewan IS very quick, that is indisputable and he is in prime sprinting form at this point of the year. The stage was not raced hard which allowed him to make it to the finish and thus compete.

Whilst it is certain that he'll be dropped on any of the stages where they will go uphill with any degree of aggression; he is unlikely to be distanced to the extent of missing any time cuts so it's likely that he picks up another sprint stage or high placing.

Drawing any further inferances with regards to his longer season prospects is another matter. He still has to convince that he actually has the engine to hang onto the peleton when they really drop the hammer from a fair distance out let alone survive serious mountains within time limits.

I agree, even if I take Sagan out of the picture, he is as close to winning the green jersey at the Tour as is his older brother TLMRP to winning the yellow jersey.

He is fast, and even already won a stage at the Vuelta and bunch of other small races, but it will be a different story against the big boys when the big team put the hammer down during those big races.

Frankly, the "best" sprinters and their lead-out teams are not here and therefore, this race should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

I think your first sentence is the more accurate summation. Ewan IS very quick, that is indisputable and he is in prime sprinting form at this point of the year. The stage was not raced hard which allowed him to make it to the finish and thus compete.

Whilst it is certain that he'll be dropped on any of the stages where they will go uphill with any degree of aggression; he is unlikely to be distanced to the extent of missing any time cuts so it's likely that he picks up another sprint stage or high placing.

Drawing any further inferances with regards to his longer season prospects is another matter. He still has to convince that he actually has the engine to hang onto the peleton when they really drop the hammer from a fair distance out let alone survive serious mountains within time limits.

I agree, even if I take Sagan out of the picture, he is as close to winning the green jersey at the Tour as is his older brother TLMRP to winning the yellow jersey.

He is fast, and even already won a stage at the Vuelta and bunch of other small races, but it will be a different story against the big boys when the big team put the hammer down during those big races.

Frankly, the "best" sprinters and their lead-out teams are not here and therefore, this race should be taken with a grain of salt.

I don't think it's really about this year at all, or the next, or the one after. I think it's about 'what happens when this kid grows up and becomes one of the big boys.'

He's gonna win a lot of bike races.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

I think your first sentence is the more accurate summation. Ewan IS very quick, that is indisputable and he is in prime sprinting form at this point of the year. The stage was not raced hard which allowed him to make it to the finish and thus compete.

Whilst it is certain that he'll be dropped on any of the stages where they will go uphill with any degree of aggression; he is unlikely to be distanced to the extent of missing any time cuts so it's likely that he picks up another sprint stage or high placing.

Drawing any further inferances with regards to his longer season prospects is another matter. He still has to convince that he actually has the engine to hang onto the peleton when they really drop the hammer from a fair distance out let alone survive serious mountains within time limits.

I agree, even if I take Sagan out of the picture, he is as close to winning the green jersey at the Tour as is his older brother TLMRP to winning the yellow jersey.

He is fast, and even already won a stage at the Vuelta and bunch of other small races, but it will be a different story against the big boys when the big team put the hammer down during those big races.

Frankly, the "best" sprinters and their lead-out teams are not here and therefore, this race should be taken with a grain of salt.

I don't think it's really about this year at all, or the next, or the one after. I think it's about 'what happens when this kid grows up and becomes one of the big boys.'

He's gonna win a lot of bike races.

Yep. Ewan only turned 21 mid last year. Two years ago (at 19 yo) he matched Kittel and Greipel for top speed in the opening crit, he just lacked their acceleration. The three of them finished so far ahead of the other sprinters they got a time gap. At 16 he was already beating Renshaw, Sutton and Brown at the Bay Crits

Most top 21 yo's are racing U23 and leading for a spot at L'Avenir, or starting their first Pro year if especially talented, not winning sprints at WT level.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Simon Geschke already out for the GC.

First break of the year for Gougeard - the first of many.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Great to see Kump finally in the mix after two failed attempt at professional level and Blythe surprised me too, didn't realize he had this much speed

 

[Lil_Tommy_V]

Does anyone have any details on the climbs within the finishing circuit for stage 2? The stage maps are quite simplistic.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Does anyone have any details on the climbs within the finishing circuit for stage 2? The stage maps are quite simplistic.

This is a Map My Ride profile for the 20.8km finishing circuit starting at the finish line. They enter the circuit ~2.5km before crossing the finish line for the first of 6 times (5 laps).

 

[LaFlorecita]

Hmm, so not a straight-forward sprint. Still think Ewan for his 2nd

 

[fowlyetti]

Re:

All that effort from Sky for Swift!

They just need to give him another 10 years

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

Hmm, so not a straight-forward sprint. Still think Ewan for his 2nd

Think this stage will be raced much harder from further out and on this terrain, Ewan might be struggling. Would think OGE will look more to Gerrans on this one given his previous record on this finish.

He hasn't a chance on Corkscrew or Willunga so his remaining chances of further stage wins would be stage 4 into Victor Harbour and the final Adelaide city stage (unless GC wasn't decided the previous day on Willunga Hill).

 

[MatParker117]

Re:

All that effort from Sky for Swift!

I was surprised that Sky let Viviani go to Argentina or didn't take DVP to this race, Swift's a lead out man now. As for Today JJ Lobato.

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

I know it's not an incredible sprint field but it seems clear that Ewan has a better turn of speed than last year, or at least better legs left in the finale of a race. That was just dominant. And Kump in 4th - is he finally ready to mix it up in his 3rd go around in the World Tour?

I think it's a mixture of a slightly weak field plus Ewan just being in great form right now.....And yes of course Ewan will continue to get better with age. Does anyone else think his sprinting position is similar to Cav's?...he's so low.

Cavendishes breakout at Tour of Britain in 2007 against Boonen, Cav is 21 and 3 months old.

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/aug06/britain06/?id=results/britain066

 

[Anderis]

Cannondale already have more wins and WT points than they had by the last week of March last year.

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

I don't think it's really about this year at all, or the next, or the one after. I think it's about 'what happens when this kid grows up and becomes one of the big boys.'

He's gonna win a lot of bike races.

p'raps the question should be, should Ewan be a sprinter, or like Sagan, is he much more than a sprinter, could he be like Freire or Zabel and take down half a dozen classics, but in doing so, sacrifice a palmares of bunchies.

depends how you value a sprint win to winning a race with your nose in the wind. It is like comparing Phillipe Gilbert to Simon Gerrans. Gerros palmares when he retires, will be competitive with Gilbert.

But they are in a different constellation when you talk about class. I have actually made a case for Gerro to be Australias best ever cyclist based on the calibre of his wins. I have him above Evans because he wins, and I dont see the win in July as the pinnacle above Gerro taking down MSR and Liege.


So, the money is in the sprint wins, and the economic incentive will guide Ewan to choose the sprints as his specialism. But he could be like Sagan, and p'raps look to winning the Walloon classics, the Ardennes, Amstel. not merely field sprints at GTs.

I would like to see him take that route, versus the money route. If he could be a combination of Freire, Zabel, Gilbert, he will still win many and be reasonably wealthy on retirement.

 

[greenedge]

For tomorrow I'll go with
1. Ulissi
2. Gerrans
3. One of Haas, McCarthy, Vakoc.

 

[Anderis]

I watched the finish now and I think Cannondale did a poor job with positioning Wippert. He was at least comfortably 2nd quickest. With a bunch of quick guys in the team like Bevin, Bettion and Zepuntke they should have done a better job as a sprint train for Dutchman.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

I don't think it's really about this year at all, or the next, or the one after. I think it's about 'what happens when this kid grows up and becomes one of the big boys.'

He's gonna win a lot of bike races.

p'raps the question should be, should Ewan be a sprinter, or like Sagan, is he much more than a sprinter, could he be like Freire or Zabel and take down half a dozen classics, but in doing so, sacrifice a palmares of bunchies.

depends how you value a sprint win to winning a race with your nose in the wind. It is like comparing Phillipe Gilbert to Simon Gerrans. Gerros palmares when he retires, will be competitive with Gilbert.

But they are in a different constellation when you talk about class. I have actually made a case for Gerro to be Australias best ever cyclist based on the calibre of his wins. I have him above Evans because he wins, and I dont see the win in July as the pinnacle above Gerro taking down MSR and Liege.


So, the money is in the sprint wins, and the economic incentive will guide Ewan to choose the sprints as his specialism. But he could be like Sagan, and p'raps look to winning the Walloon classics, the Ardennes, Amstel. not merely field sprints at GTs.

I would like to see him take that route, versus the money route. If he could be a combination of Freire, Zabel, Gilbert, he will still win many and be reasonably wealthy on retirement.

Gerrans has had some great wins but there is no possible way I could rate him above Evans. I see Ewan at this point almost a carbon copy of McEwen with the style of Cavendish, a flat out bunch sprinter who could also win longer flat stage classics or semi classics in the future. He is not even in the picture yet for being the type of rider that wins a MSR or LBL. Classics are much harder to win than stages and are much longer usually. If his team can position him well I still see him competing with the best sprinters this year in flat stages but not classics. Tour De France stages will test him but flat stages at the Vuelta or the Giro he could win as usually the sprinting stocks in those races are not as strong. He could do well in the shorter stage races as well like PN and some of the Spanish ones if he gets the stage to suit.

 

[Breh]

Rojas already bagged his first top10 of the season!

 

[Gloin22]

Re:

I watched the finish now and I think Cannondale did a poor job with positioning Wippert. He was at least comfortably 2nd quickest. With a bunch of quick guys in the team like Bevin, Bettion and Zepuntke they should have done a better job as a sprint train for Dutchman.

Fast guys don't mean good leadout..you need experience to be a good leadout and Cannondale doesn't have any of that..it'll take them very long time to get a good train, if at all.

 

[abbaskip]

The gear Renshaw was pushing compared to the others in the sprint was insane - shows why he's a better leadout man than sprinter. He got a slight hook from the Sky train and went early, and ended up giving Ewan a perfect lead out (not that he needed it) - would be good to see again at the Worlds!