2016 Tour Down Under WT January 19-24 Adelaide

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

I don't think it's really about this year at all, or the next, or the one after. I think it's about 'what happens when this kid grows up and becomes one of the big boys.'

He's gonna win a lot of bike races.

p'raps the question should be, should Ewan be a sprinter, or like Sagan, is he much more than a sprinter, could he be like Freire or Zabel and take down half a dozen classics, but in doing so, sacrifice a palmares of bunchies.

depends how you value a sprint win to winning a race with your nose in the wind. It is like comparing Phillipe Gilbert to Simon Gerrans. Gerros palmares when he retires, will be competitive with Gilbert.

But they are in a different constellation when you talk about class. I have actually made a case for Gerro to be Australias best ever cyclist based on the calibre of his wins. I have him above Evans because he wins, and I dont see the win in July as the pinnacle above Gerro taking down MSR and Liege.


So, the money is in the sprint wins, and the economic incentive will guide Ewan to choose the sprints as his specialism. But he could be like Sagan, and p'raps look to winning the Walloon classics, the Ardennes, Amstel. not merely field sprints at GTs.

I would like to see him take that route, versus the money route. If he could be a combination of Freire, Zabel, Gilbert, he will still win many and be reasonably wealthy on retirement.

He is definitely nothing like Zabel, Oscarito and especially not Sagan.

I think he would be in the "Guardinin" league of sprinters ... the occasional straight drag race or slight uphill where he can take advantage of his "little girl skinsuit" size.

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

He is definitely nothing like Zabel, Oscarito and especially not Sagan.

I think he would be in the "Guardinin" league of sprinters ... the occasional straight drag race or slight uphill where he can take advantage of his "little girl skinsuit" size.

wasnt comparing him to Sagan, just Sagan is more than a sprinter and goes uphill well. I think a 21yo like Caleb Ewan might be able to go uphill well as he matures... he is only 60kg. I know, there is a tradeoff between the speed v climbing/tting.

I think Caleb Ewan can make Liege and Amstel and Fleche and San Remo. I actually think Sagan can do all of those races besides Flanders and Roubaix. Zabel won Amstel, I dont think Freire did. Both of those guys won San Remo

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

He is definitely nothing like Zabel, Oscarito and especially not Sagan.

I think he would be in the "Guardinin" league of sprinters ... the occasional straight drag race or slight uphill where he can take advantage of his "little girl skinsuit" size.

wasnt comparing him to Sagan, just Sagan is more than a sprinter and goes uphill well. I think a 21yo like Caleb Ewan might be able to go uphill well as he matures... he is only 60kg. I know, there is a tradeoff between the speed v climbing/tting.

I think Caleb Ewan can make Liege and Amstel and Fleche and San Remo. I actually think Sagan can do all of those races besides Flanders and Roubaix. Zabel won Amstel, I dont think Freire did. Both of those guys won San Remo

I dont think Ewan will ever win 300km San Remo or any race of that length. And just because he is tiny and light does not make him automatically suited to Liege type of races either.

Just a wishful thinking for Aussie fans.

(Porte will win TDF before Ewan will win MSR or Liege)

 

[Taxus4a]

What a great sprint por Ewan, he is even more aerodinamic than Cavs.
I think he is not going to win any stage more except the final circuit in Adelaida, but he is clearly the best sprinter here.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

He is definitely nothing like Zabel, Oscarito and especially not Sagan.

I think he would be in the "Guardinin" league of sprinters ... the occasional straight drag race or slight uphill where he can take advantage of his "little girl skinsuit" size.

wasnt comparing him to Sagan, just Sagan is more than a sprinter and goes uphill well. I think a 21yo like Caleb Ewan might be able to go uphill well as he matures... he is only 60kg. I know, there is a tradeoff between the speed v climbing/tting.

I think Caleb Ewan can make Liege and Amstel and Fleche and San Remo. I actually think Sagan can do all of those races besides Flanders and Roubaix. Zabel won Amstel, I dont think Freire did. Both of those guys won San Remo

No freaking way. Are you serious? I don't even think Sagan is able to top 10 in those races.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

He is definitely nothing like Zabel, Oscarito and especially not Sagan.

I think he would be in the "Guardinin" league of sprinters ... the occasional straight drag race or slight uphill where he can take advantage of his "little girl skinsuit" size.

wasnt comparing him to Sagan, just Sagan is more than a sprinter and goes uphill well. I think a 21yo like Caleb Ewan might be able to go uphill well as he matures... he is only 60kg. I know, there is a tradeoff between the speed v climbing/tting.

I think Caleb Ewan can make Liege and Amstel and Fleche and San Remo. I actually think Sagan can do all of those races besides Flanders and Roubaix. Zabel won Amstel, I dont think Freire did. Both of those guys won San Remo

No freaking way. Are you serious? I don't even think Sagan is able to top 10 in those races.

Why not Liege?

 

[Jacques de Molay]

Ewan’s parents gave him a mountain bike for Christmas, which he actually used to win his first race — in a velodrome – when he was just 10.

Is that even true? Because it conjures up one helluva funny mental image.

Also, is there no Caleb Ewan thread yet?

 

[jaylew]

Pretty certain Sagan could top 10 either of those races if he decided to focus on them, which I don't think he ever will. As we've seen, Sagan can climb quite well when he wants to. Besides, he's already been 12th at Flèche so it's certainly not a stretch to say he could do a top 10.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

He is definitely nothing like Zabel, Oscarito and especially not Sagan.

I think he would be in the "Guardinin" league of sprinters ... the occasional straight drag race or slight uphill where he can take advantage of his "little girl skinsuit" size.

wasnt comparing him to Sagan, just Sagan is more than a sprinter and goes uphill well. I think a 21yo like Caleb Ewan might be able to go uphill well as he matures... he is only 60kg. I know, there is a tradeoff between the speed v climbing/tting.

I think Caleb Ewan can make Liege and Amstel and Fleche and San Remo. I actually think Sagan can do all of those races besides Flanders and Roubaix. Zabel won Amstel, I dont think Freire did. Both of those guys won San Remo

No freaking way. Are you serious? I don't even think Sagan is able to top 10 in those races.

Sagan has finished 12th at Fleche before, in 2013. If he focuses and loses weight then I reckon he could fairly easily muster a top 10. Liege I agree is too hard unless raced a la 2014 again.

 

[Walter Morgan]

Haas wins today.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

He is definitely nothing like Zabel, Oscarito and especially not Sagan.

I think he would be in the "Guardinin" league of sprinters ... the occasional straight drag race or slight uphill where he can take advantage of his "little girl skinsuit" size.

wasnt comparing him to Sagan, just Sagan is more than a sprinter and goes uphill well. I think a 21yo like Caleb Ewan might be able to go uphill well as he matures... he is only 60kg. I know, there is a tradeoff between the speed v climbing/tting.

I think Caleb Ewan can make Liege and Amstel and Fleche and San Remo. I actually think Sagan can do all of those races besides Flanders and Roubaix. Zabel won Amstel, I dont think Freire did. Both of those guys won San Remo

San Remo and maybe Amstel, one day, eventually... But Fleche and Liege?! Well did any of the sprinters (and I mean all types of them, including Zabel,Freire,Sagan,etc.) ever did well in those races? I don't remember, do you?

 

[Jspear]

Today's stage podium:
1. Gerrans
2. Haas
3. Ulissi

 

[shalgo]

Re: Re:

San Remo and maybe Amstel, one day, eventually... But Fleche and Liege?! Well did any of the sprinters (and I mean all types of them, including Zabel,Freire,Sagan,etc.) ever did well in those races? I don't remember, do you?

Freire finished 5th in Fleche and 11th in Liege (with several top 15s there) and Sagan finished 12th in Fleche, as mentioned above, but that is still a long way from someone like Ewan winning either of them.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

San Remo and maybe Amstel, one day, eventually... But Fleche and Liege?! Well did any of the sprinters (and I mean all types of them, including Zabel,Freire,Sagan,etc.) ever did well in those races? I don't remember, do you?

Freire finished 5th in Fleche and 11th in Liege (with several top 15s there) and Sagan finished 12th in Fleche, as mentioned above, but that is still a long way from someone like Ewan winning either of them.

What about Albasini? I know he's not really a sprinter, but he's able to win midsize bunch sprints (P-N 2013, Romandie win-fest...) and he's a monster on Huy.

 

[jens_attacks]

What is the estimated hour for the tomorrow stage?
I will wake up at 5 cet, or should i earlier?

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

San Remo and maybe Amstel, one day, eventually... But Fleche and Liege?! Well did any of the sprinters (and I mean all types of them, including Zabel,Freire,Sagan,etc.) ever did well in those races? I don't remember, do you?

Freire finished 5th in Fleche and 11th in Liege (with several top 15s there) and Sagan finished 12th in Fleche, as mentioned above, but that is still a long way from someone like Ewan winning either of them.

What about Albasini? I know he's not really a sprinter, but he's able to win midsize bunch sprints (P-N 2013, Romandie win-fest...) and he's a monster on Huy.

In form, I'd say yes, but Albasini may not be able to punch his way over that many hills in such a short distance. But hey, if Gerrans can do it...

 

[Sasquatch]

Today is the day that Arredondo gets back on track.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

I don't think it's really about this year at all, or the next, or the one after. I think it's about 'what happens when this kid grows up and becomes one of the big boys.'

He's gonna win a lot of bike races.

p'raps the question should be, should Ewan be a sprinter, or like Sagan, is he much more than a sprinter, could he be like Freire or Zabel and take down half a dozen classics, but in doing so, sacrifice a palmares of bunchies.

depends how you value a sprint win to winning a race with your nose in the wind. It is like comparing Phillipe Gilbert to Simon Gerrans. Gerros palmares when he retires, will be competitive with Gilbert.

But they are in a different constellation when you talk about class. I have actually made a case for Gerro to be Australias best ever cyclist based on the calibre of his wins. I have him above Evans because he wins, and I dont see the win in July as the pinnacle above Gerro taking down MSR and Liege.


So, the money is in the sprint wins, and the economic incentive will guide Ewan to choose the sprints as his specialism. But he could be like Sagan, and p'raps look to winning the Walloon classics, the Ardennes, Amstel. not merely field sprints at GTs.

I would like to see him take that route, versus the money route. If he could be a combination of Freire, Zabel, Gilbert, he will still win many and be reasonably wealthy on retirement.

Yep, that is an intriguing question. He opened the door on those possibilities when he attacked in the road nats last year. High quality field, hilly course - famously disparaged as impossible for sprinters - and he attacked on the climb and ended up 2nd. The attack had a touch of class to it, in the way you defined it with respect to Gilbert. i.e. it was not necessary, and in hindsight, may have even cost him the win.

You're right, there will be a lot of team pressure to be the sprinter stacking up the wins. But he could spend his whole 20's as a pure sprinter, and then he's still got many years to fully mature into a classics man. Walloon classics though? Could see him winning Amstel. Not sure about the others though.

 

[42x16ss]

Today is the day that Arredondo gets back on track.

That would be cool. I'd love to see him have a red hot go on the corkscrew.

 

[ferryman]

Orica, looking to set this up for Gerrans. No doubts...

 

[Squirbos_19]

BMC are chasing now, Hansen still has a 55sec lead

 

[Squirbos_19]

Less than 3km to go, all the pure sprinters are dropped.

 

[jaylew]

crash going to mess this up for some guys

 

[Squirbos_19]

McCarthy wins!!!

 

[jaylew]

I was sure Ulissi had that