2016 Tour Down Under WT January 19-24 Adelaide

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

BTW I was wrong about Ewan as there was not 50 riders before the crash .... there was 82 ...

Swift, Nizzolo, Kump, Wippert, Farrar, Renshaw, Pelucchi, Jones, Gourgeard and Howard all got dropped before Ewan did.

That should tell you something about how the stage was raced

And where is the "new best sprinter". Frankly, he will be just another one trick pony if he can't even hang on with the bunch today he will never win any monument or a big race.

None of those guys are being called the best sprinter or future San Remo winner. Sorry bro but when 80 out of 140 guys are still there for the bunch sprint, he should be there, especially if he is the size of TLMRP (or Purito) and there are no categorized climbs on the stage. Just look how many Drapac and UniSA guys were still there.

You're being ridiculous, Jancouver. I doubt Greipel, Cav, or Kittel would have been there either. Besides, he has shown he can climb a bit. You know how this goes - sometimes sprinters get in decent climbing form too, other times they can't climb a lick. We've seen every major sprinter bar Kittel surprise us at times with his climbing legs. I get that you're probably responding to people talking about him as a possible classic winner, but it's just as bad to make a sweeping statement about a 21 year old based on one sprint.

IMO Greipel would have been there along with the other 89 guys. He has been climbing pretty good lately and this was nothing too crazy.

As per Cav, as much as he is not my cup of coffee, he is a fighter and he got a heart. Unfortunately, so far, I cant say that about Ewan.

As per Kittel, you are probably right and the chances are that he would not be there for the finish. That being said, I'm eager to see his form this year riding for the Steppers.

 

[Lupi33x]

Not sure about the size as reasoning though. Robbie McEwen was pretty small.

(in physical stature)

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Not sure about the size as reasoning though. Robbie McEwen was pretty small.

(in physical stature)

Jancouver uses a highly scientific method to determine their future potential...it all has to do with body build/size.

 

[yaco]

McCarthy should be riding for OGE - Should have gone for him instead of Tzurruka when OGE wanted to boost its climbing ranks.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

You're right, there will be a lot of team pressure to be the sprinter stacking up the wins. But he could spend his whole 20's as a pure sprinter, and then he's still got many years to fully mature into a classics man. Walloon classics though? Could see him winning Amstel. Not sure about the others though.

to do well in the Ardennes, he may have to develop that ability earlier, and ride GC for the one and two week stage races, mebbe improve his chrono threshold...

how did Bartoli develop? how did he start?

not as a sprinter, just with the kick of a mule as a chancer, a puncheur

Bartoli was never a sprinter, he and Ewan don't have anything in common, totally different riders... And I repeat, no sprinter had ever did well in real Ardennes (Fleche and Liege), well.. since Van Looy

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

It really does confuse me why so many seem to dislike Caleb Ewan, he seems to be performing really well for a 21 year old or am I missing something? It's not really his fault that he's been so hyped up

99% of it IS due to the absolutely ridiculous level of hype that has accompanied him. I'm one of those critics and it certainly is personal or anything that he has personally said or done; but rather the cold assessment of "what he brings to the table".

Yes, he's only 21 but the fact is that he's now "playing with the big boys". He IS very very quick in a flat sprint and an exceptional crit rider but very little top professional racing is criteriums.

The facts are that he IS physically small & underweight as compared to the topline sprinters which leaves him underpowered with regards to his engine. Whilst this has sprinting repercussions, this most impacts him with regards to his "engine" & his capacity to last with the race pace; not only for longer one day races (if he were to target classics) but more importantly being able to hold onto the peleton when they "drop the hammer" from a distance out from the finish. If you watched last year's Vuelta ....... and beyond his (commendable) stage victory, you would have realised that he was "distanced" well before the finish or even hit any hills for this every reason.

This lack of size seemingly is NOT accompanied by any climbing prowess. Yes, he can go up a hill ...... if it's not overly steep and it's not raced hard but once any pace is put on ........ ping goes Caleb ! You may have noted that OGE "pulled" him from the Vuelta before they got to any real mountains; if he's going to be the great sprinter people want him to be then he's going to have to find some solutions or he won't be finishing any GT/winning on the Champs Elysses. His lack of size/small engine renders him of zero value as a domestique at any race so he is in essence a "one trick pony"

Ewan might certainly win a helluva lot of races; the question is what level/what standard. Yes, he can continue to "beat up" against 3rd tier riders. No doubt, he'll usually be in good form at this time of year so some TdU stages could be one the cards. He could win some stages at other 1 week tours against other 2nd tier sprinters/non specialist sprinters. Maybe even a couple of early stages of Giro/Vuelta but that's it. Mega star with Monuments on his palmares; Cavendish size stage win tally ........ don't think so !

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!

I could not say it better!

Unfortunately, some fangirls are just blindfolded and would not accept reality. This reminds me of the Porte's discussion before the last year's Giro.

Oh boy, how many insults did I have to listen to for disregarding his overall GT chances. Just about every Aussie on this forum already saw him winning the Giro/Tour combo and would not accept otherwise.

I love it when when you change subject because others have provided factual information to tear apart your unsubstantiated argument.

The worst thing is your argument about Porte is yet again unsubstantiated. Who are the Aussies who claimed Porte could win a GT ? - How do you know these posters are Aussies ? Best I read was Porte could podium in a GT if EVERYTHING went well.

Fanboi's - You are the one who is posting like a fanboi - Oh the irony !

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

San Remo and maybe Amstel, one day, eventually... But Fleche and Liege?! Well did any of the sprinters (and I mean all types of them, including Zabel,Freire,Sagan,etc.) ever did well in those races? I don't remember, do you?

Freire finished 5th in Fleche and 11th in Liege (with several top 15s there) and Sagan finished 12th in Fleche, as mentioned above, but that is still a long way from someone like Ewan winning either of them.

What about Albasini? I know he's not really a sprinter, but he's able to win midsize bunch sprints (P-N 2013, Romandie win-fest...) and he's a monster on Huy.

You're right, he's not a sprinter. Valverde also won mid-size sprints, Gerrans also, but I wouldn't call them a sprinters

 

[dirkprovin]

Well, Jancouver, I AM an Aussie; albeit one with joint AUS/RSA citizenship !

I, too, am highly sceptical of Porte's GT potential. An excellent GT super-domestique; a rider who can win good one week tours and bring in worthwhile points hauls but on all the evidence to hand, he lacks the day-in day-out consistency, his TTing is good but far from elite standard and not always consistency and I'm not convinced of his race savvy.

However, the TLMRP crap is just that but you seem to be pretty amused by it; at least someone is.

Yaco, whilst I agree that Tzurruka is a complete WTF signing for OGE; what may've mitigated against McCarthy signing for OGE at the present time is his likely wish to pursue some of his own goals. Whilst he could be of value as a GT domestique; OGE quite probably already have riders on their books targeting those same "target races" as McCarthy. A few years time, this may have changed somewhat.

 

[jaylew]

Have to say it was good work by OGE in the intermediate sprints. In both they made sure Gerrans picked up the biggest time bonuses he could, while having Ewan cover from behind to prevent rivals from doing the same. Could be important considering how close the race often winds up being.

 

[Night Rider]

It appears I have missed something really important while away on holiday. Who is TLMRP? Is yet another variation of LRP?

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

It really does confuse me why so many seem to dislike Caleb Ewan, he seems to be performing really well for a 21 year old or am I missing something? It's not really his fault that he's been so hyped up

99% of it IS due to the absolutely ridiculous level of hype that has accompanied him. I'm one of those critics and it certainly is personal or anything that he has personally said or done; but rather the cold assessment of "what he brings to the table".

Yes, he's only 21 but the fact is that he's now "playing with the big boys". He IS very very quick in a flat sprint and an exceptional crit rider but very little top professional racing is criteriums.

The facts are that he IS physically small & underweight as compared to the topline sprinters which leaves him underpowered with regards to his engine. Whilst this has sprinting repercussions, this most impacts him with regards to his "engine" & his capacity to last with the race pace; not only for longer one day races (if he were to target classics) but more importantly being able to hold onto the peleton when they "drop the hammer" from a distance out from the finish. If you watched last year's Vuelta ....... and beyond his (commendable) stage victory, you would have realised that he was "distanced" well before the finish or even hit any hills for this every reason.

This lack of size seemingly is NOT accompanied by any climbing prowess. Yes, he can go up a hill ...... if it's not overly steep and it's not raced hard but once any pace is put on ........ ping goes Caleb ! You may have noted that OGE "pulled" him from the Vuelta before they got to any real mountains; if he's going to be the great sprinter people want him to be then he's going to have to find some solutions or he won't be finishing any GT/winning on the Champs Elysses. His lack of size/small engine renders him of zero value as a domestique at any race so he is in essence a "one trick pony"

Ewan might certainly win a helluva lot of races; the question is what level/what standard. Yes, he can continue to "beat up" against 3rd tier riders. No doubt, he'll usually be in good form at this time of year so some TdU stages could be one the cards. He could win some stages at other 1 week tours against other 2nd tier sprinters/non specialist sprinters. Maybe even a couple of early stages of Giro/Vuelta but that's it. Mega star with Monuments on his palmares; Cavendish size stage win tally ........ don't think so !

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!

I could not say it better!

Unfortunately, some fangirls are just blindfolded and would not accept reality. This reminds me of the Porte's discussion before the last year's Giro.

Oh boy, how many insults did I have to listen to for disregarding his overall GT chances. Just about every Aussie on this forum already saw him winning the Giro/Tour combo and would not accept otherwise.

I love it when when you change subject because others have provided factual information to tear apart your unsubstantiated argument.

The worst thing is your argument about Porte is yet again unsubstantiated. Who are the Aussies who claimed Porte could win a GT ? - How do you know these posters are Aussies ? Best I read was Porte could podium in a GT if EVERYTHING went well.

Fanboi's - You are the one who is posting like a fanboi - Oh the irony !

Yaco, that conversation about Porte was taking place way before you joined the forum. You can go to the Porte's thread and read those 1700 replies. Perhaps you will learn something about my opinion on Porte.

It may be a good idea, especially if you want to participate in the conversation regarding Ewan, TDU and TLMRP.

 

[Night Rider]

Re: Re:

It really does confuse me why so many seem to dislike Caleb Ewan, he seems to be performing really well for a 21 year old or am I missing something? It's not really his fault that he's been so hyped up

99% of it IS due to the absolutely ridiculous level of hype that has accompanied him. I'm one of those critics and it certainly is personal or anything that he has personally said or done; but rather the cold assessment of "what he brings to the table".

Yes, he's only 21 but the fact is that he's now "playing with the big boys". He IS very very quick in a flat sprint and an exceptional crit rider but very little top professional racing is criteriums.

The facts are that he IS physically small & underweight as compared to the topline sprinters which leaves him underpowered with regards to his engine. Whilst this has sprinting repercussions, this most impacts him with regards to his "engine" & his capacity to last with the race pace; not only for longer one day races (if he were to target classics) but more importantly being able to hold onto the peleton when they "drop the hammer" from a distance out from the finish. If you watched last year's Vuelta ....... and beyond his (commendable) stage victory, you would have realised that he was "distanced" well before the finish or even hit any hills for this every reason.

This lack of size seemingly is NOT accompanied by any climbing prowess. Yes, he can go up a hill ...... if it's not overly steep and it's not raced hard but once any pace is put on ........ ping goes Caleb ! You may have noted that OGE "pulled" him from the Vuelta before they got to any real mountains; if he's going to be the great sprinter people want him to be then he's going to have to find some solutions or he won't be finishing any GT/winning on the Champs Elysses. His lack of size/small engine renders him of zero value as a domestique at any race so he is in essence a "one trick pony"

Ewan might certainly win a helluva lot of races; the question is what level/what standard. Yes, he can continue to "beat up" against 3rd tier riders. No doubt, he'll usually be in good form at this time of year so some TdU stages could be one the cards. He could win some stages at other 1 week tours against other 2nd tier sprinters/non specialist sprinters. Maybe even a couple of early stages of Giro/Vuelta but that's it. Mega star with Monuments on his palmares; Cavendish size stage win tally ........ don't think so !

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!

I could not say it better!

Unfortunately, some fangirls are just blindfolded and would not accept reality. This reminds me of the Porte's discussion before the last year's Giro.

Oh boy, how many insults did I have to listen to for disregarding his overall GT chances. Just about every Aussie on this forum already saw him winning the Giro/Tour combo and would not accept otherwise.

I love it when when you change subject because others have provided factual information to tear apart your unsubstantiated argument.

The worst thing is your argument about Porte is yet again unsubstantiated. Who are the Aussies who claimed Porte could win a GT ? - How do you know these posters are Aussies ? Best I read was Porte could podium in a GT if EVERYTHING went well.

Fanboi's - You are the one who is posting like a fanboi - Oh the irony !

Too many here in Australia unfortunately, Graeme Brown was the most recent I read.

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

Not sure about the size as reasoning though. Robbie McEwen was pretty small.

(in physical stature)

Ewan is listed at 5'5" and 130lb. (I'm sure that height has been measured with his cycling shoes on )
Robbie McEwen is 5'7 and 150lb.

In cycling, there is a big difference between 130lb and 150lb.

(btw Cav is also listed at 150lb)

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

Not sure about the size as reasoning though. Robbie McEwen was pretty small.

(in physical stature)

Ewan is listed at 5'5" and 130lb. (I'm sure that height has been measured with his cycling shoes on )
Robbie McEwen is 5'7 and 150lb.

In cycling, there is a big difference between 130lb and 150lb.

(btw Cav is also listed at 150lb)

I remember McEwen racing as an amateur - he'd win the odd crit and road stage in races like the old Commonwealth Bank Cycle Classic. But he was one of 5 or 6 good sprinters. Was definitely not blowing fields away - and these were amateur fields. There was nothing that said future green jersey + 11 tdf stages.

What's missing from your analysis are two critical things:

1. Riders develop. You want to freeze time, and make Ewan a 21 year old for his whole career.
2. What Ewan is doing as a 21 year old is impressive. It just flat out is. If it looks like a WT sprint win comes on plate, that's cause to be impressed. If you can snag back the Paris-Roubaix champion in a GT as a neopro, that's cause to be impressed. It just flat out is.

Most people with knowledge of the sport would find it hard to deny 1 or 2, and you not only conflate both, but also deny both.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

Not sure about the size as reasoning though. Robbie McEwen was pretty small.

(in physical stature)

Ewan is listed at 5'5" and 130lb. (I'm sure that height has been measured with his cycling shoes on )
Robbie McEwen is 5'7 and 150lb.

In cycling, there is a big difference between 130lb and 150lb.

(btw Cav is also listed at 150lb)

I remember McEwen racing as an amateur - he'd win the odd crit and road stage in races like the old Commonwealth Bank Cycle Classic. But he was one of 5 or 6 good sprinters. Was definitely not blowing fields away - and these were amateur fields. There was nothing that said future green jersey + 11 tdf stages.

What's missing from your analysis are two critical things:

1. Riders develop. You want to freeze time, and make Ewan a 21 year old for his whole career.
2. What Ewan is doing as a 21 year old is impressive. It just flat out is. If it looks like a WT sprint win comes on plate, that's cause to be impressed. If you can snag back the Paris-Roubaix champion in a GT as a neopro, that's cause to be impressed. It just flat out is.

Most people with knowledge of the sport would find it hard to deny 1 or 2, and you not only conflate both, but also deny both.

I agree, riders do develop.

Just look at Froome, still a donkey at 25 and all of a sudden pure thoroughbred Secretariat by 27.

Hopefully, Caleb can pick up a few of those tricks and start winning not only short flat sprints, but also some HC mountain climbs. Phew, with his body build, he is the next Porte that can also win every drag race.

 

[ferryman]

OK. We're all bored. Just in case anyone was wondering, what a strange name from today's stage start, here you go:

town:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenelg,_Highland

It's actually a wee bit difficult place to get to by car but would be fantastic if you are biking in the area. And there is history abound when you get there. AND a good Pub

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Well, Jancouver, I AM an Aussie; albeit one with joint AUS/RSA citizenship !

I, too, am highly sceptical of Porte's GT potential. An excellent GT super-domestique; a rider who can win good one week tours and bring in worthwhile points hauls but on all the evidence to hand, he lacks the day-in day-out consistency, his TTing is good but far from elite standard and not always consistency and I'm not convinced of his race savvy.

However, the TLMRP crap is just that but you seem to be pretty amused by it; at least someone is.

Yaco, whilst I agree that Tzurruka is a complete WTF signing for OGE; what may've mitigated against McCarthy signing for OGE at the present time is his likely wish to pursue some of his own goals. Whilst he could be of value as a GT domestique; OGE quite probably already have riders on their books targeting those same "target races" as McCarthy. A few years time, this may have changed somewhat.

I know I definitely agree on Porte. Good domestique, great 1 week racer, but will never come close to challenging for a GT. He's never been great in the bunch either, when he was racing domestically guys used to joke that he'd run over the top of you on a climb if you weren't paying attention. He's getting better, but nothing special for a pro. The LRP stuff was started by BlackCat in the clinic, pretty funny IMO.

McCarthy resigned with Tinkoff because he's happy there, and Tinkov, Yates etc are happy with him. As you said, he'd be competing for scraps with the likes Matthews, Gerrans, Albasini and Impey there, so why move? I wouldn't be surprised if Hepburn leaves when his contract is up, as all OGE have done is use him to reel in breaks and control circuit races.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Cadel Evans looks like he's still in racing nick

 

[Sasquatch]

Yeah it's in Hepburn's best interest to leave. Same with Durbridge. Those two are being wasted.

 

[carton]

Anyone else finding themselves rooting for the Astana guy for once?

I know these guys get paid to race, but I can't help but feel for a guy 110km into a 140km, 30º solo no-hoper from the gun as the peloton starts tightening up the screws.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Anyone else finding themselves rooting for the Astana guy for once?

I know these guys get paid to race, but I can't help but feel for a guy 110km into a 140km, 30º solo no-hoper from the gun as the peloton starts tightening up the screws.

Nope, that would be boring to see a one man break win this stage. I wanna see the best riders in the bunch battle it out. But I always feel that way about the deciding stages of a race unless its some big, spectacular break or a guy I really root for. And sadly for me, the trend has been that the break has been able to sail away on many of the big mountain stages which is anticlimactic to me, especially if it's guys who really not are climbers.

 

[observer]

wow. the ochre jeresy looks great over the tinkoff grey shorts.

 

[jaylew]

Damn, there go Arredondo's chances.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

Nope, that would be boring to see a one man break win this stage. I wanna see the best riders in the bunch battle it out. But I always feel that way about the deciding stages of a race unless its some big, spectacular break or a guy I really root for. And sadly for me, the trend has been that the break has been able to sail away on many of the big mountain stages which is anticlimactic to me, especially if it's guys who really not are climbers.

I get that, really. This is getting fun. But still, there something about a long-range solo break that speaks to the romantic in me.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Wow Woods!