2016 Tour Down Under WT January 19-24 Adelaide

[gooner]

8 seconds gap

Edit: All back together.

 

[Scarponi]

That solo by cadel down here was quite impressive when you see how easily they are coming back

 

[Tugboat]

Gerrans from Dennis and Woods.

Great stage that.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Henao and Woods clearly a little better than the others on the climb. Genuinely impressed that Woods dropped riders of that calibre on his first real climb as a pro.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

The climb and descent were so entertaining, I don't even mind that Gerrans won.

 

[Jspear]

Nice finale, but it could have been better....they should have ended on the top of corkscrew.

 

[Jspear]

GC:

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

Nice finale, but it could have been better....they should have ended on the top of corkscrew.

I agree! Nice attack by Woods!

 

[gooner]

We have enough with Willunga.

Need a descent finish.

 

[sienna]

Re: Re:

Anyone else finding themselves rooting for the Astana guy for once?

I know these guys get paid to race, but I can't help but feel for a guy 110km into a 140km, 30º solo no-hoper from the gun as the peloton starts tightening up the screws.

Nope, that would be boring to see a one man break win this stage. I wanna see the best riders in the bunch battle it out. But I always feel that way about the deciding stages of a race unless its some big, spectacular break or a guy I really root for. And sadly for me, the trend has been that the break has been able to sail away on many of the big mountain stages which is anticlimactic to me, especially if it's guys who really not are climbers.

I don't think that boring is the correct adjective here.

 

[observer]

that's a good stage. very exciting finale there. doesn't need to be a hilltop finish. we have too much of that going on in cycling.

i like the sharp hill followed by a quick descent. it makes for attacking cycling.

 

[greenedge]

Re: Re:

Well, Jancouver, I AM an Aussie; albeit one with joint AUS/RSA citizenship !

I, too, am highly sceptical of Porte's GT potential. An excellent GT super-domestique; a rider who can win good one week tours and bring in worthwhile points hauls but on all the evidence to hand, he lacks the day-in day-out consistency, his TTing is good but far from elite standard and not always consistency and I'm not convinced of his race savvy.

However, the TLMRP crap is just that but you seem to be pretty amused by it; at least someone is.

Yaco, whilst I agree that Tzurruka is a complete WTF signing for OGE; what may've mitigated against McCarthy signing for OGE at the present time is his likely wish to pursue some of his own goals. Whilst he could be of value as a GT domestique; OGE quite probably already have riders on their books targeting those same "target races" as McCarthy. A few years time, this may have changed somewhat.

I know I definitely agree on Porte. Good domestique, great 1 week racer, but will never come close to challenging for a GT. He's never been great in the bunch either, when he was racing domestically guys used to joke that he'd run over the top of you on a climb if you weren't paying attention. He's getting better, but nothing special for a pro. The LRP stuff was started by BlackCat in the clinic, pretty funny IMO.

McCarthy resigned with Tinkoff because he's happy there, and Tinkov, Yates etc are happy with him. As you said, he'd be competing for scraps with the likes Matthews, Gerrans, Albasini and Impey there, so why move? I wouldn't be surprised if Hepburn leaves when his contract is up, as all OGE have done is use him to reel in breaks and control circuit races.

It is an Olympic year though for Hepburn, hopefully in 2017 he can be given his own opportunities.

Regarding today that was a good stage, Henao and Woods looked in great form. I think Porte will get his third Willunga victory though and think one of McCarthy or Gerrans will win the overall.

 

[Lil_Tommy_V]

The Gerrans missed bonus seconds yesterday set this up for a great finale. After today Porte, Woods & Henao certainly look the most in form climbers. With 10 bonus seconds on the line come Wilunga it should prove a great final stage.

Gerrans loves to defend on the hill but 15 seconds with bonuses in play seems a little skinny.

Porte or Henao FTW!

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

Not sure about the size as reasoning though. Robbie McEwen was pretty small.

(in physical stature)

Ewan is listed at 5'5" and 130lb. (I'm sure that height has been measured with his cycling shoes on )
Robbie McEwen is 5'7 and 150lb.

In cycling, there is a big difference between 130lb and 150lb.

(btw Cav is also listed at 150lb)

I remember McEwen racing as an amateur - he'd win the odd crit and road stage in races like the old Commonwealth Bank Cycle Classic. But he was one of 5 or 6 good sprinters. Was definitely not blowing fields away - and these were amateur fields. There was nothing that said future green jersey + 11 tdf stages.

What's missing from your analysis are two critical things:

1. Riders develop. You want to freeze time, and make Ewan a 21 year old for his whole career.
2. What Ewan is doing as a 21 year old is impressive. It just flat out is. If it looks like a WT sprint win comes on plate, that's cause to be impressed. If you can snag back the Paris-Roubaix champion in a GT as a neopro, that's cause to be impressed. It just flat out is.

Most people with knowledge of the sport would find it hard to deny 1 or 2, and you not only conflate both, but also deny both.

I agree, riders do develop.

Just look at Froome, still a donkey at 25 and all of a sudden pure thoroughbred Secretariat by 27.

Hopefully, Caleb can pick up a few of those tricks and start winning not only short flat sprints, but also some HC mountain climbs. Phew, with his body build, he is the next Porte that can also win every drag race.

I'm not sure I'd even be surprised these days. In fact, it seems rather plausible. But the reasoning doesn't belong here....

 

[skidmark]

Re: Re:

It really does confuse me why so many seem to dislike Caleb Ewan, he seems to be performing really well for a 21 year old or am I missing something? It's not really his fault that he's been so hyped up

99% of it IS due to the absolutely ridiculous level of hype that has accompanied him. I'm one of those critics and it certainly is personal or anything that he has personally said or done; but rather the cold assessment of "what he brings to the table".

Yes, he's only 21 but the fact is that he's now "playing with the big boys". He IS very very quick in a flat sprint and an exceptional crit rider but very little top professional racing is criteriums.

The facts are that he IS physically small & underweight as compared to the topline sprinters which leaves him underpowered with regards to his engine. Whilst this has sprinting repercussions, this most impacts him with regards to his "engine" & his capacity to last with the race pace; not only for longer one day races (if he were to target classics) but more importantly being able to hold onto the peleton when they "drop the hammer" from a distance out from the finish. If you watched last year's Vuelta ....... and beyond his (commendable) stage victory, you would have realised that he was "distanced" well before the finish or even hit any hills for this every reason.

This lack of size seemingly is NOT accompanied by any climbing prowess. Yes, he can go up a hill ...... if it's not overly steep and it's not raced hard but once any pace is put on ........ ping goes Caleb ! You may have noted that OGE "pulled" him from the Vuelta before they got to any real mountains; if he's going to be the great sprinter people want him to be then he's going to have to find some solutions or he won't be finishing any GT/winning on the Champs Elysses. His lack of size/small engine renders him of zero value as a domestique at any race so he is in essence a "one trick pony"

Ewan might certainly win a helluva lot of races; the question is what level/what standard. Yes, he can continue to "beat up" against 3rd tier riders. No doubt, he'll usually be in good form at this time of year so some TdU stages could be one the cards. He could win some stages at other 1 week tours against other 2nd tier sprinters/non specialist sprinters. Maybe even a couple of early stages of Giro/Vuelta but that's it. Mega star with Monuments on his palmares; Cavendish size stage win tally ........ don't think so !

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!

I could not say it better!

Unfortunately, some fangirls are just blindfolded and would not accept reality. This reminds me of the Porte's discussion before the last year's Giro.

Oh boy, how many insults did I have to listen to for disregarding his overall GT chances. Just about every Aussie on this forum already saw him winning the Giro/Tour combo and would not accept otherwise.

Wait a sec. You guys are talking about Caleb Ewan like he's washed up or something, or that he's 'never proven anything' on the big level. Facts are a) he's 21 and b) this is January of his second season (and he's won virtually everything he's been in so far). I know limitless fanboyism is annoying and it irks me as well, but these responses are a bit of an overreaction to say the least. I think OGE had a great development plan with him last year to let him 'beat up on third tier sprinters' before dipping his toes into bigger stuff like the Vuelta, then pulling him. He's got plenty of time and opportunity to build an engine. To act like the sky is falling because they pulled him out before the mountains so it seems like they don't 'have solutions' for his climbing doesn't make any sense to me. Did you see his espoir period? He was a hot mess, couldn't figure out how to be in a pro peloton at all. He figured that out last year, now he's gotta work on his endurance. Honestly, who knows what he can do? But you guys act like you know what he can't do, ever, and I don't understand where that's coming from. Did anyone see Kittel as the world's fastest sprinter at 21? Did anyone think Tom Dumoulin would be challenging for the world TT title at 21? There are just so many variables. And also, he finished 4th in the Firenze U23 RR, probably the hilliest Worlds of the last 20 years. I haven't seen any evidence that he can't carry that same kind of thing over to the Elites, just that he's clearly not there yet.

Here's Mark Cavendish, as an old man of 22, talking about his first mountain stage of a Grand Tour. I remember seeing the interview of him abandoning (which I can't find online) and crying while saying 'it's so hard'. There's a learning curve - to quote Cav, most guys those ages are 'physically incapable' of it. Then they get experience and become capable. That's the way it's always worked. Why in the world wouldn't it with Ewan?

Porte though - yeah, dunno why anyone thinks he's a surefire GT contender, with his best result as a neo-pro with a 17-minute breakaway. I wouldn't be shocked if he did well in one, but I'm sure as hell skeptical that he ever will. But he's 30, so that's a different story.

 

[jaylew]

Careful, skid, you're making too much sense. Let's go back to making grand pronouncements about 21 year old riders in their 2nd year.

 

[Lupi33x]

Re: Re:

Not sure about the size as reasoning though. Robbie McEwen was pretty small.

(in physical stature)

Ewan is listed at 5'5" and 130lb. (I'm sure that height has been measured with his cycling shoes on )
Robbie McEwen is 5'7 and 150lb.

In cycling, there is a big difference between 130lb and 150lb.

(btw Cav is also listed at 150lb)

so he's not going to put on 20lbs when he gets a bit older?

btw I'm not buying into Ewan hype, just some of these arguments are specious

 

[Alexandre B.]

Astonishing performance by Michael Woods. Very strong on Corkscrew, maybe the strongest.

Plenty of climbers at 15 sec. Can they make a difference on Old Willunga?

 

[dacooley]

a good one for simon.

 

[classicomano]

Oh look its a Simon Gerrans win where hes non existent for the entire race then pushes his wheel forward on the line. Great win, great win.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

Oh look its a Simon Gerrans win where hes non existent for the entire race then pushes his wheel forward on the line. Great win, great win.

He did the pace of the chasing group for the entire climb.

 

[johnymax]

Re:

Oh look its a Simon Gerrans win where hes non existent for the entire race then pushes his wheel forward on the line. Great win, great win.

To be honest Gerrans did a lot of work to bring back Henao and Woods on the descent. He was among the most active riders in the chasing group.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Nice finale, but it could have been better....they should have ended on the top of corkscrew.

Yeh let's make another mtf finish....

It's good the way it is. They finish on top of Wilunga.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

It really does confuse me why so many seem to dislike Caleb Ewan, he seems to be performing really well for a 21 year old or am I missing something? It's not really his fault that he's been so hyped up

99% of it IS due to the absolutely ridiculous level of hype that has accompanied him. I'm one of those critics and it certainly is personal or anything that he has personally said or done; but rather the cold assessment of "what he brings to the table".

Yes, he's only 21 but the fact is that he's now "playing with the big boys". He IS very very quick in a flat sprint and an exceptional crit rider but very little top professional racing is criteriums.

The facts are that he IS physically small & underweight as compared to the topline sprinters which leaves him underpowered with regards to his engine. Whilst this has sprinting repercussions, this most impacts him with regards to his "engine" & his capacity to last with the race pace; not only for longer one day races (if he were to target classics) but more importantly being able to hold onto the peleton when they "drop the hammer" from a distance out from the finish. If you watched last year's Vuelta ....... and beyond his (commendable) stage victory, you would have realised that he was "distanced" well before the finish or even hit any hills for this every reason.

This lack of size seemingly is NOT accompanied by any climbing prowess. Yes, he can go up a hill ...... if it's not overly steep and it's not raced hard but once any pace is put on ........ ping goes Caleb ! You may have noted that OGE "pulled" him from the Vuelta before they got to any real mountains; if he's going to be the great sprinter people want him to be then he's going to have to find some solutions or he won't be finishing any GT/winning on the Champs Elysses. His lack of size/small engine renders him of zero value as a domestique at any race so he is in essence a "one trick pony"

Ewan might certainly win a helluva lot of races; the question is what level/what standard. Yes, he can continue to "beat up" against 3rd tier riders. No doubt, he'll usually be in good form at this time of year so some TdU stages could be one the cards. He could win some stages at other 1 week tours against other 2nd tier sprinters/non specialist sprinters. Maybe even a couple of early stages of Giro/Vuelta but that's it. Mega star with Monuments on his palmares; Cavendish size stage win tally ........ don't think so !

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!

I could not say it better!

Unfortunately, some fangirls are just blindfolded and would not accept reality. This reminds me of the Porte's discussion before the last year's Giro.

Oh boy, how many insults did I have to listen to for disregarding his overall GT chances. Just about every Aussie on this forum already saw him winning the Giro/Tour combo and would not accept otherwise.

Wait a sec. You guys are talking about Caleb Ewan like he's washed up or something, or that he's 'never proven anything' on the big level. Facts are a) he's 21 and b) this is January of his second season (and he's won virtually everything he's been in so far). I know limitless fanboyism is annoying and it irks me as well, but these responses are a bit of an overreaction to say the least. I think OGE had a great development plan with him last year to let him 'beat up on third tier sprinters' before dipping his toes into bigger stuff like the Vuelta, then pulling him. He's got plenty of time and opportunity to build an engine. To act like the sky is falling because they pulled him out before the mountains so it seems like they don't 'have solutions' for his climbing doesn't make any sense to me. Did you see his espoir period? He was a hot mess, couldn't figure out how to be in a pro peloton at all. He figured that out last year, now he's gotta work on his endurance. Honestly, who knows what he can do? But you guys act like you know what he can't do, ever, and I don't understand where that's coming from. Did anyone see Kittel as the world's fastest sprinter at 21? Did anyone think Tom Dumoulin would be challenging for the world TT title at 21? There are just so many variables. And also, he finished 4th in the Firenze U23 RR, probably the hilliest Worlds of the last 20 years. I haven't seen any evidence that he can't carry that same kind of thing over to the Elites, just that he's clearly not there yet.

Here's Mark Cavendish, as an old man of 22, talking about his first mountain stage of a Grand Tour. I remember seeing the interview of him abandoning (which I can't find online) and crying while saying 'it's so hard'. There's a learning curve - to quote Cav, most guys those ages are 'physically incapable' of it. Then they get experience and become capable. That's the way it's always worked. Why in the world wouldn't it with Ewan?

Porte though - yeah, dunno why anyone thinks he's a surefire GT contender, with his best result as a neo-pro with a 17-minute breakaway. I wouldn't be shocked if he did well in one, but I'm sure as hell skeptical that he ever will. But he's 30, so that's a different story.

Great post, but your post makes too much sense for Jancouver i think. He will probably say you are one of those Hype Aussies that attacks him.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Oh look its a Simon Gerrans win where hes non existent for the entire race then pushes his wheel forward on the line. Great win, great win.

Hey I just watch the race and he did pull on the descent!
There were riders that did less in the chase group. Either way I don't think there is much to blame on him in this race.