2016 Vuelta a España, stage 11: Colunga > Peña Cabarga

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

I wonder how much Meintjes has left in the legs to go after a stage win after his Tour performance.

What's the point in trying to hold on for a top25?
Just take it easy on most days, save some energy and then go for it on a couple of stages.

 

[veji11]

Re:

i hope movistar goes for the stage win here too. not a stage very hard to control

Now that Movistar has confidence that Nairo might be the best at climbing in this GT, they will try to get him the bonifications to help him make a difference against Froome I would think.

 

[jens_attacks]

Re: Re:

i hope movistar goes for the stage win here too. not a stage very hard to control

Now that Movistar has confidence that Nairo might be the best at climbing in this GT, they will try to get him the bonifications to help him make a difference against Froome I would think.

normally that should be the case but you never know with unzue....

 

[carton]

Re:

i hope movistar goes for the stage win here too. not a stage very hard to control

Doubt it. The climb is too short for Quintana and too hard for Piti. It's short enough that the break needs only about three minutes, particularly if some quality climbers are in it. The only way the GC guys take it is if Sky go for it, but that would be an amazing show of confidence.

I think the GC will be pretty even. It would seem more of a Froome or Contador climb but Nairo is the form man and Movistar has the horses to pace him. Valverde should be able to just about hold on. Chavito might surprise if he's got his tapering right.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

i hope movistar goes for the stage win here too. not a stage very hard to control

Now that Movistar has confidence that Nairo might be the best at climbing in this GT, they will try to get him the bonifications to help him make a difference against Froome I would think.

Agreed, Quintana is so clearly head and shoulders above everyone else right now, that it would be crazy not to maximise his advantage. It's not such a difficult day to control either; they only have to hold it together until the start of the climb, then perhaps a short pull by Moreno, before Quintana attacks on the long, straight 10% section after 1km.

That way saves the domestiques from hard work until the Pyrenees, and also allows Valverde a free ride, just sitting on Froome's wheel and getting towed up.

 

[Arredondo]

1. Froome
2. Quintana + 2 s
3. Contador + 11 s
4. Valverde + 22s
5. Chavito st

I don't care about a possible break staying away

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

i hope movistar goes for the stage win here too. not a stage very hard to control

Now that Movistar has confidence that Nairo might be the best at climbing in this GT, they will try to get him the bonifications to help him make a difference against Froome I would think.

Agreed, Quintana is so clearly head and shoulders above everyone else right now, that it would be crazy not to maximise his advantage. It's not such a difficult day to control either; they only have to hold it together until the start of the climb, then perhaps a short pull by Moreno, before Quintana attacks on the long, straight 10% section after 1km.

That way saves the domestiques from hard work until the Pyrenees, and also allows Valverde a free ride, just sitting on Froome's wheel and getting towed up.

I mean, Froome rode even a couple of seconds faster the moment Quintana dropped Contador and rode his own tempo.

For sure he's the best right now. But head and shoulders above?

 

[jens_attacks]

Re: Re:

i hope movistar goes for the stage win here too. not a stage very hard to control

Doubt it. The climb is too short for Quintana.

so was camperona. actually shorter.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

i hope movistar goes for the stage win here too. not a stage very hard to control

Doubt it. The climb is too short for Quintana.

so was camperona. actually shorter.

Yes it was. Less then half of Pena Cabarga.

Quintana looks so superior climbing-wise that not going for the boni seconds, might be a missed opportunity.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

i hope movistar goes for the stage win here too. not a stage very hard to control

Now that Movistar has confidence that Nairo might be the best at climbing in this GT, they will try to get him the bonifications to help him make a difference against Froome I would think.

Agreed, Quintana is so clearly head and shoulders above everyone else right now, that it would be crazy not to maximise his advantage. It's not such a difficult day to control either; they only have to hold it together until the start of the climb, then perhaps a short pull by Moreno, before Quintana attacks on the long, straight 10% section after 1km.

That way saves the domestiques from hard work until the Pyrenees, and also allows Valverde a free ride, just sitting on Froome's wheel and getting towed up.

I mean, Froome rode even a couple of seconds faster the moment Quintana dropped Contador and rode his own tempo.

For sure he's the best right now. But head and shoulders above?

He's gained 30 seconds over the second GC rider on the two toughest climbs of the race so far - they are pretty convincing margins. If he does that on every remaining mountain stage he'll win by 5 minutes.

In fact, I think Quintana could have won by even more if he wouldn't have been with Contador. He didn't realise how much stronger he was than Contador and so held something back in the middle part. Probably was afraid of TTing off earlier in case Contador sat on and countered him.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Another "Froome stage". If this is still a contest, Froome needs to get some time back.

A climb of 6 Km is not a good climb for Froome, he prefer loger climbs and no so step. But for Quintana is the same.

They are the strongerst of la Vuelta , so they should be the best here as well, but it is a good day for Contador (the same for Valverde), and I think he will win the stage.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Another "Froome stage". If this is still a contest, Froome needs to get some time back.

A climb of 6 Km is not a good climb for Froome, he prefer loger climbs and no so step. But for Quintana is the same.

They are the strongerst of la Vuelta , so they should be the best here as well, but it is a good day for Contador (the same for Valverde), and I think he will win the stage.

Not sure about that. He's won big races on Planche de Belles Filles, Ax-3-Domaines, Le Bettex, Vaujany as well, of course, as Peña Cabarga itself. On decent form he can certainly challenge. In theory it's worse for Quintana, but his shape seems so good right not compared with his rivals, that surely he must be considered favourite ahead of Contador and Valverde.

 

[Valv.Piti]

As much as most of us hope Movistar will control the break and explode it in the bottom, I unfortunately think they will take a more conservative approach - let the break go and if Quintana attacks, only after the false flat. But it sure would be a sight if Fernandez/Moreno went full gas in the bottom and Quintana decided to go for the stage with 4-5 km to go.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

i hope movistar goes for the stage win here too. not a stage very hard to control

Now that Movistar has confidence that Nairo might be the best at climbing in this GT, they will try to get him the bonifications to help him make a difference against Froome I would think.

Agreed, Quintana is so clearly head and shoulders above everyone else right now, that it would be crazy not to maximise his advantage. It's not such a difficult day to control either; they only have to hold it together until the start of the climb, then perhaps a short pull by Moreno, before Quintana attacks on the long, straight 10% section after 1km.

That way saves the domestiques from hard work until the Pyrenees, and also allows Valverde a free ride, just sitting on Froome's wheel and getting towed up.

I mean, Froome rode even a couple of seconds faster the moment Quintana dropped Contador and rode his own tempo.

For sure he's the best right now. But head and shoulders above?

The gap was down to 14s at one point, although that's partly because Quintana had rested up while playing tactics with Contador while Froome had been putting down a constant power all the way up the climb

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Another "Froome stage". If this is still a contest, Froome needs to get some time back.

A climb of 6 Km is not a good climb for Froome, he prefer loger climbs and no so step. But for Quintana is the same.

They are the strongerst of la Vuelta , so they should be the best here as well, but it is a good day for Contador (the same for Valverde), and I think he will win the stage.

You just nailed it within your own post. Froome prefers the longer, constant gradient climbs, but so does Quintana, and in fact you'd expect Froome to have a bigger advantage on Quintana the shorter and the more explosive the effort is

 

[SeriousSam]

I feel like overall strength is a much more reliable predictor of climbing times than the type of climb for anything longer than Mur de Huy. The "whose characteristics does this climb suit best" discussion is overplayed

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I feel like overall strength is a much more reliable predictor of climbing times than the type of climb for anything longer than Mur de Huy. The "whose characteristics does this climb suit best" discussion is overplayed

Agree in general. Certainly with the riders involved in this race. There are other riders though, like Wiggins, Basso, Purito, Ullrich who were definitely more suited to certain types of climbs than others.

Quintana, Froome, Chaves and Valverde though can do well on all different kinds if they have the strength.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I feel like overall strength is a much more reliable predictor of climbing times than the type of climb for anything longer than Mur de Huy. The "whose characteristics does this climb suit best" discussion is overplayed

Agree in general. Certainly with the riders involved in this race. There are other riders though, like Wiggins, Basso, Purito, Ullrich who were definitely more suited to certain types of climbs than others.

Quintana, Froome, Chaves and Valverde though can do well on all different kinds if they have the strength.

Totally agree. In form, all these riders can win on all kinds of different climbs.

 

[yaco]

Will be interested at what tempo Movistar ride the last climb - My eyes tell me that SO FAR, Movistar has been riding the climbs at a higher tempo, than Sky did in the TDF

 

[Ataraxus]

Re:

Will be interested at what tempo Movistar ride the last climb - My eyes tell me that SO FAR, Movistar has been riding the climbs at a higher tempo, than Sky did in the TDF

One of the (non-clinic) reasons Quintana's time up the Covadonga was so fast, is the tempo that his team set in the hardest middle part.
One of the most efficient ways for pure climbers to beat Froome in a MTF is to attack (or set a harder tempo than Froome's threshold ) at the base of the climb. And that's what Movistar seems to be doing this Vuelta.
It has worked in Hazallanas (Ruta del Sol 2015), it worked (only for Fernandez) on Ezaro and yesterday in Covadonga as well.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

i hope movistar goes for the stage win here too. not a stage very hard to control

Doubt it. The climb is too short for Quintana.

so was camperona. actually shorter.

Yeah, barely (5km vs 6km), but Movistar let the break go then, too. Also it started at over 1,100 MAMSL and had a 5km uphill lead in, which made it a pretty much level playing field. Quintana just won on straight up form. Which as been stated before, is the most important thing (but the profile and the lead in really does weigh heavily as well, IMHO).

I get the strike while the iron is hot theory, but I just don't share it. I don't think riding a bike really works that way, you do spend your legs by going all out. In any case, if Quintana starts to fade before Sunday there's no way he's winning this regardless. Saving his legs and his team's legs for Saturday and Sunday is a much better strategy. If someone else goes for it, then you can counter. On the other hand, assuming he's going to have much better legs than Froome and Contador after a rest day is a massive gamble, particularly on a stage that would otherwise not suit him with a completely flat run in.

It's not the most exciting way to look a it from a fans perspective but it's the smartest way to play it.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Will be interested at what tempo Movistar ride the last climb - My eyes tell me that SO FAR, Movistar has been riding the climbs at a higher tempo, than Sky did in the TDF

One of the (non-clinic) reasons Quintana's time up the Covadonga was so fast, is the tempo that his team set in the hardest middle part.
One of the most efficient ways for pure climbers to beat Froome in a MTF is to attack (or set a harder tempo than Froome's threshold ) at the base of the climb. And that's what Movistar seems to be doing this Vuelta.
It has worked in Hazallanas (Ruta del Sol 2015), it worked (only for Fernandez) on Ezaro and yesterday in Covadonga as well.

These are also my thoughts and also dovetails with how to break the Skytrain at the TDF - Teams need to be more aggressive in mountain stages, particularly riding harder in the valleys and flat sections before the climbs to make Sky weaker before the mountains This is also means instead of picking a 'Sky' team of 7 climbers and 2 flat riders, you need to go for 4 climbers and 5 flat riders - Tire Sky out before the mountains which means they may set a slower tempo up the climb, allowing more rope for attacks.

Anyway will continue to watch at what tempo Sky ride the mountains in the following stages - It's been good tactics by Movistar.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I remember Pantani exactly using the 'strike when the iron is hot'-phrase when he annihilated the field day after day in 1999 in the documentary on him. I don't think Quintana has that same attitude, nor does Movistar, but I'd like them not to allow more than 5 and just control them with a couple of guys.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

Will be interested at what tempo Movistar ride the last climb - My eyes tell me that SO FAR, Movistar has been riding the climbs at a higher tempo, than Sky did in the TDF

One of the (non-clinic) reasons Quintana's time up the Covadonga was so fast, is the tempo that his team set in the hardest middle part.
One of the most efficient ways for pure climbers to beat Froome in a MTF is to attack (or set a harder tempo than Froome's threshold ) at the base of the climb. And that's what Movistar seems to be doing this Vuelta.
It has worked in Hazallanas (Ruta del Sol 2015), it worked (only for Fernandez) on Ezaro and yesterday in Covadonga as well.

These are also my thoughts and also dovetails with how to break the Skytrain at the TDF - Teams need to be more aggressive in mountain stages, particularly riding harder in the valleys and flat sections before the climbs to make Sky weaker before the mountains This is also means instead of picking a 'Sky' team of 7 climbers and 2 flat riders, you need to go for 4 climbers and 5 flat riders - Tire Sky out before the mountains which means they may set a slower tempo up the climb, allowing more rope for attacks.

Anyway will continue to watch at what tempo Sky ride the mountains in the following stages - It's been good tactics by Movistar.

This is very true but the thing is SKY at the tour are infintely stronger than Movistar at the Vuelta ... Of course Fernandez has been setting a blistering pace but can he keep that up and over longer climbs

SKY at the Tour rode at apace that stop attacked...maybe they could have gone faster and better if required...No one challenged them

I'd love to know how long Chris Froome can keep up his Yo yo TT up a mountian and what is his threshold

It would be lovely to know the power and speed at each KM up Covodongo for Froome , Quintana & Contador
I would be great to figure out Froome's threshold

Also agree about putting SKY under pressure before the mountains... Tinkoff would need to do this here as Monvistar can leave it till the mountains...but Tinkoff look like they are not strong enough .... Need some cross winds ??

 

[portugal11]

Contador to win. He will be better day by day and he is fantastic after a rest day