2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 196km

[DFA123]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 1

The only chance for long range attack on this stage would be Froome having 3m loss already and Sky willing to sacrifixe Konig to drop Movistar domestiques. None of that has happened so we are in for a procession until last 10km

I'd bite your hand off now if you offered me a proper GC battle for the last 10km. I think last 4-5km may be all we get; perhaps with one or two lesser names in the top 10 dropping earlier.

 

[DanielSong39]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 1

The only chance for long range attack on this stage would be Froome having 3m loss already and Sky willing to sacrifixe Konig to drop Movistar domestiques. None of that has happened so we are in for a procession until last 10km

Never say never; Froome was in a similar position in 2012 and 2015 then plummeted at a critical stage. I'd say there's at least a 5% chance that he cracks relatively early and drops minutes.

Of course he could win by a minute and put himself on the driver's seat, and there's a better chance of that happening.

I also would not bank on Froome gaining 1-2 minutes on the time trial and there is a half-decent chance that he will lose time to some of the other major contenders.

 

[klintE]

Ok, i see it like follows:

Gilbert
Van Garderen +6'38''
Contador, Chavez, Froome, Quintana +11'43''

Just kidding
Make it or break it for Alberto. Another minute in the back shall result abandon IMO
Quintana should easily drop other CG's on the last 4-5 km but Froome is still Froome.
You never know how big yo-yo he can do.
Sad thing is that i can't watch TV coverage until 16.00 (UTC+2) tomorrow

 

[Singer01]

why would froome let quintana wheelsuck? i don't think there is anything in it at the minute, therefore he doesn't have to try and break quintana like he did with contador in 2014 and realistically he was just trying to drop the 2 spanish parasites.

 

[classicomano]

Contador to go on another early suicidal attack wich will amount to nothing. Then the break will get a 45 minute lead and Maxim Monfort will get the leaders jersey.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re:

why would froome let quintana wheelsuck? i don't think there is anything in it at the minute, therefore he doesn't have to try and break quintana like he did with contador in 2014 and realistically he was just trying to drop the 2 spanish parasites.

Correct. Froome is basically in red without being in red.
Heres an extract from a sean yates interview:

VN: So what does a rival need to bring to the Tour to challenge Froome? A team as strong as Sky, with a leader as strong as Froome?
SY: The team doesn’t necessarily have to be the strongest if your leader is slightly stronger. If you lose a minute in the time trial, you pretty much lost the Tour already. And if you lose 10 seconds on a mountaintop finish, to regain that, you’re a marked man. It’s pretty simple to defend yellow if you’re strong. Then it’s up to you to make that difference, and to try to make that difference, you are using a lot of energy. And you always pay for it when you use energy in a bike race.
Read more at http://velonews.competitor.com/2016/07/tour-de-france/power-in-numbers-keeps-froome-in-yellow_415621#scBXhFSyWI5ep43T.99

Its upto Quintana to make the difference. Froome needs to wheeksuck. Time will tell whether Nairo can crack Froome.
Interesting day ahead. :lol: :lol:

 

[DanielSong39]

Re:

why would froome let quintana wheelsuck? i don't think there is anything in it at the minute, therefore he doesn't have to try and break quintana like he did with contador in 2014 and realistically he was just trying to drop the 2 spanish parasites.

Even alien mode Froome lacks an off switch that prevents his rivals from pedaling...

If Quintana has the legs, he has the legs and he can wheelsuck Froome until the last 2km then drop him and gain 15+ seconds.

 

[hfer07]

We'll finally be able to witness the best of Nairito's skills

 

[TMP402]

Froome to DNF.

 

[klintE]

Re:

Froome to DNF.

Meersman FTW

 

[Escarabajo]

Contador and Chaves to try early attacks. Not sure how will play out.

 

[Amnes2015]

Re:

Froome to DNF.

Froome will be in red jersey in 24 hours.

 

[Vladivar]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 1

The Day of the the Dark Destroying Dawg

 

[Mr.White]

I think Contador will try already on penultimate climb.
It will be interesting to see how will Movistar respond. They can ride tempo with Fernandez/Moreno but that's a bit risky, Contador can make serious difference on those two if he got the legs. They could send Valverde with him, to put the pressure on Froome. But that might be a gamble also cause Valverde is in his 3rd GT and you never know when he's going to explode. And finally Quintana could respond personally. If I am Arrieta or Chente I would risk with Valverde.
If nothing happens on penultimate climb, I expect high tempo from Ruben and Dani from the foot of Aubisque and then Bala attack with some 5-6 km to go

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Rasmussen FTW!

But seriously I think Chaves might do well here.

Those were the days...

I'd love to see Chavito doing well and Froome actually dropping Quintana on this kind of stage would be a huge surprise.

 

[MacBAir]

Re:

We'll finally be able to witness the best of Nairito's skills

We already did. Attack when the riders have orders to stop (his Giro win), cheat and try to grab motorbikes up any climb when outclassed, and wheelsuck as much as possible, as seen by this year's tour.

That's the best Quintana. He will never win the tour. That's amazing.

Hopefully, despite a long and successful season, Dawg can kick his ass, again.

Froome FTW, tomorrow.

 

[klintE]

We already did. Attack when the riders have orders to stop (his Giro win), cheat and try to grab motorbikes up any climb when outclassed, and wheelsuck as much as possible, as seen by this year's tour.
That's the best Quintana. He will never win the tour. That's amazing.
Hopefully, despite a long and successful season, Dawg can kick his ***, again.
Froome FTW, tomorrow.

No one is saint, Froome also. You want or not, Nairo is now the only rider in the pack who can push Froome to his limits.
They got practically same season distance in their legs and teams in LV are more comparable then in TdF. Will see who is the boss.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

I just want to witness a fight between this troll and Ryo... hehe

That would be something Where's Ryo when we need him

 

[burning]

Re:

I just want to witness a fight between this troll and Ryo... hehe

What do you think?

For me it has to be Fabian (promised so much at the beginning of the season)
Kwiatkowski (1 victory and poor performances left and right)
Gerrans (he was supposed to be the new Froome/Wiggins. Even Henao with less pure, colombian blood is stronger than him)

I might put this to steer up the fight

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: Re:

why would froome let quintana wheelsuck? i don't think there is anything in it at the minute, therefore he doesn't have to try and break quintana like he did with contador in 2014 and realistically he was just trying to drop the 2 spanish parasites.

Even alien mode Froome lacks an off switch that prevents his rivals from pedaling...

If Quintana has the legs, he has the legs and he can wheelsuck Froome until the last 2km then drop him and gain 15+ seconds.

However, the situation in 2014 was different. Froome could only win by dropping Bertie in the mountains, as there was obviously too much time to make up in the final 10km TT.

Froome's tactics on the Pena Cabarga this year seem to be far more relevant. For the first part of the climb, he sat on Quintana's wheel and reacted to Quintana's attack. OK, when the two were clear in front, he put in his own dig, but by that point Nairo wasn't going to gain much time whatever happened.

So this is how I see it. A huge war of attrition with a couple of the top 10 contenders being dropped before the final climb, where there will be 30-40 riders left in a reduced peloton (some of the dropped contenders might have caught back on, temporarily) chasing the remains of the break with the usual suspects (Fraile, de Gendt). Contador and Chaves are likely to put in relatively early attacks. Froome will stick to Quintana (if he can), so the question is when Quintana will attack or react (from the profile I would say on one of the steep pitches within the last 10km depending on the situation). That will be the key moment. If it's 10km out Froome might go into time trial mode (probably with the aid of Konig), in the last 4-5km he will try to follow and then it's game on.

Prediction: Quintana wins by a handful of seconds over the Preying Mantis with everyone else spread over the mountain

 

[DanielSong39]

If Quintana gains a few seconds I'd have to favor his chances of winning the Vuelta. I don't think he'll lose that much time in the time trial.

 

[Taxus4a]

Tomorrow is the battle we couldnt see on le Tour this last years: Contador, Froome and Quintana in good shape in a really hard Tour stage.

Yesss !!

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

If Quintana gains a few seconds I'd have to favor his chances of winning the Vuelta. I don't think he'll lose that much time in the time trial.

Tomorrow is not totally a stage for pure climbers, as Abdorra was, becouse there are more flat than climb, it is an stage for strong and complete GC riders, but anyway is a hard moutain stage, so is a day for Quitana, If quitana cant put 40 seconnds to Froome means Froome is strog annd he wiil win this Vuelta. One minute for me is fifty-fifty. If quintana put more tha onne minute he will be the clear favouriote.

Tomorrow anyway lot of people will lose lot of minutes.

 

[Rollthedice]

Valverde will crack. Contador attacks on the penultimate climb and will be cooked 5 k to go when washing machine Froome will pass him, elbows bent like pushing a supermarket trolley up Aubisque with Quintana on his wheel. Not far behind Scarponi. Nairo drops the Dawg with 3K to go, no yoyo can help him as Scarponi finishes second, 50 seconds down. Somehow Bertie manages to catch the struggling Froome and out sprints him for third place 1:15 to Stoneface.

 

[DanielSong39]

If Contador finishes second in the Vuelta it's hard to call it a disaster.

Hoping for better but sometimes you have to face reality.