Had Van Avermaet not flipped Milan-Sanremo he could have finished all the 5 major spring classics in the top15. How long since that has happened. He amazes me even more every week. Next year he should go for Liège. He's ready now.
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DFA123 said:Except it wasn't a sprint, was it? It was a race where a group of about 30 riders, including a couple of fast finishers who can handle hills, made it to the final climb. And, on that final climb, the two best punchy climbers in the race absolutely destroyed all the sprinters. Dropping them comfortably, with one going on to solo easily to victory. None of the 'sprinter-puncheurs' came close to winning.
He should focus on Ronde, and keep Liege as a secondary target for next year. Then, if he wins Ronde, I agree that he should focus on Liege.Echoes said:Had Van Avermaet not flipped Milan-Sanremo he could have finished all the 5 major spring classics in the top15. How long since that has happened. He amazes me even more every week. Next year he should go for Liège. He's ready now.
DFA123 said:Not sure of the point you're making; Amstel had plenty of climbing in the last 20km. The decisive selection was made on the last of them 3km from the finish by two hilly puncheurs. Amstel with 15km of flat at the end would have been a bunch sprint for sure.Ikbengodniet said:DFA123 said:Why give sprinters any chance in Liege though? You'd just get a situation where a largish peloton - with the likes of Matthews hiding in it - were chasing a small gap to a few puncheurs. Some of whom wouldn't be working because they had sprint options behind. They'd get caught; some sprinter would win and it would be awful.Velolover2 said:Making the final flat wouldn't eliminate the pucheurs. Alaphilippe, Albasini, Valverde, Alaphilippe, Gilbert and Dan Martin should still be favorites in races where you have to attack from far out. They are the best on steep, short hills.
Yeah, like we had in Amstel this year after the route change.
The authorities think that a bike race is an annoyance, so they send it to those parts of the town where nobody is bothered by street closure to traffic.Zinoviev Letter said:HelloDolly said:And maybe not through that part of Liege as it looks terrible...Surley there must be a better part of that city
There are. I had never been here before this week and to my surprise, much of the city is very attractive. The sign in and start are in the ugliest part of the centre and the finish is in the ugliest suburb. I have no idea why the city authorities want to misleadingly represent their city as a bit of a dump on the day of its biggest international tv exposure.
DFA123 said:Not sure of the point you're making; Amstel had plenty of climbing in the last 20km. The decisive selection was made on the last of them 3km from the finish by two hilly puncheurs. Amstel with 15km of flat at the end would have been a bunch sprint for sure.Ikbengodniet said:DFA123 said:Why give sprinters any chance in Liege though? You'd just get a situation where a largish peloton - with the likes of Matthews hiding in it - were chasing a small gap to a few puncheurs. Some of whom wouldn't be working because they had sprint options behind. They'd get caught; some sprinter would win and it would be awful.Velolover2 said:Making the final flat wouldn't eliminate the pucheurs. Alaphilippe, Albasini, Valverde, Alaphilippe, Gilbert and Dan Martin should still be favorites in races where you have to attack from far out. They are the best on steep, short hills.
Yeah, like we had in Amstel this year after the route change.
You are talking about a completely unrealistic scenario. Make the race hard enough and no way there is a 50 men peloton after the last climb. The only reason why there is a big group so late in the race now is because there are no serious attacks on La Redoute and RaF. You are writing this as if this would just be another Milan San Remo which will likely go to sprinters with only a small chance for attackers, but thats simply not what it is. No sprinter would have a chance if the earlier hills are ridden properly. Just watch the Amstel Gold Race. The finale was way easier than before but the race was way harder to win for a sprinter. And I'm not even saying one has to make the last 20 kilometers easy like in the AGR. I get that nobody wants the risk of a bunch sprint in LBL so if you want to let's just make the last 5 kilometers flat and the race before that very hilly. No way sprinters would have a chance if guys like Valverde start to attack on a ramp like RaF.DFA123 said:Well, some of them can ride on it. Valverde and Kwiatkowski, for example, are decent rouleurs. But they're not going to be able to hold off a 50 strong peloton full of sprinters and their domestiques for a significant distance. Especially when other riders in a bunch have sprinters behind so aren't pulling.
They already need multiple skillsets to win on this course - huge aerobic endurance, good anaerobic endurance, a decent sprint, good positioning etc... They shouldn't have to be world class rouleurs as well - PR and RVV are the races for those skills.
I agree but I still don't think of Gerrans as a sprinter. Also, I've watched that finale many, many times and there's just no way to know if Martin would have held on. I put his chances at about 45%Zinoviev Letter said:DFA123 said:Except it wasn't a sprint, was it? It was a race where a group of about 30 riders, including a couple of fast finishers who can handle hills, made it to the final climb. And, on that final climb, the two best punchy climbers in the race absolutely destroyed all the sprinters. Dropping them comfortably, with one going on to solo easily to victory. None of the 'sprinter-puncheurs' came close to winning.
This is exactly right. The sprinters have no chance in this race on this parcours until they somehow learn to go up the climb to Ans with Valverde and Martin at the end. Getting to the final obstacle with guys who will murder you on that obstacle 100 times out of 100 is not nearly winning. The only rider in recent years more biased towards sprinting than climbing who could possibly compete on that finale was a slightly younger Gerrans and he was (a) a big outlier and (b) only able to actually win because one of the true climber-puncheurs fell off on the last corner.
Hang on, isn't that what we had in Liege. What is Ans average, about 5%? Certainly nowhere near the hardest climb in the race. The hardest climb is La Redoute, which was something like 35km from the finish? If Gilbert was here, or Kwiatkowksi attacked there we would have had a much more exciting route. I think, as usual, it's the riders who make the race far more than the course - some of the big names went for broke early at Amstel, they didn't today.Velolover2 said:DFA123 said:Not sure of the point you're making; Amstel had plenty of climbing in the last 20km. The decisive selection was made on the last of them 3km from the finish by two hilly puncheurs. Amstel with 15km of flat at the end would have been a bunch sprint for sure.Ikbengodniet said:DFA123 said:Why give sprinters any chance in Liege though? You'd just get a situation where a largish peloton - with the likes of Matthews hiding in it - were chasing a small gap to a few puncheurs. Some of whom wouldn't be working because they had sprint options behind. They'd get caught; some sprinter would win and it would be awful.Velolover2 said:Making the final flat wouldn't eliminate the pucheurs. Alaphilippe, Albasini, Valverde, Alaphilippe, Gilbert and Dan Martin should still be favorites in races where you have to attack from far out. They are the best on steep, short hills.
Yeah, like we had in Amstel this year after the route change.
The point is that you have to place the hardest climbs in the middle/not near the very end. Swallow 4% climbs can be placed in a final and we will still have good racing.
There is a huge difference between a race that finishes on a 5% climb and a race that passes a 5% climb with 5 kilometers to go. In LBL guys like Valverde can decide the race in Ans since the first on top wins. In AGR being the first on top of the Bemeleberg isn't enough, since you need a gap on the riders behind you, which is why the race exploded earlier this year.DFA123 said:Hang on, isn't that what we had in Liege. What is Ans average, about 5%? Certainly nowhere near the hardest climb in the race. The hardest climb is La Redoute, which was something like 35km from the finish? If Gilbert was here, or Kwiatkowksi attacked there we would have had a much more exciting route. I think, as usual, it's the riders who make the race far more than the course - some of the big names went for broke early at Amstel, they didn't today.
Pretty sure the best riders would still generally wait for the final climb. If its 5km from the finish then you would just have another San Sebastian type finish - which isn't much better than we had today. If its 20km from the finish then you would end up with a bunch sprint. I think its more important to motivate the riders to do something ( the usual stuff: smaller teams, no radios, rapidly decreasing WT points for positions), more than tweaking the course.Gigs_98 said:You are talking about a completely unrealistic scenario. Make the race hard enough and no way there is a 50 men peloton after the last climb. The only reason why there is a big group so late in the race now is because there are no serious attacks on La Redoute and RaF. You are writing this as if this would just be another Milan San Remo which will likely go to sprinters with only a small chance for attackers, but thats simply not what it is. No sprinter would have a chance if the earlier hills are ridden properly. Just watch the Amstel Gold Race. The finale was way easier than before but the race was way harder to win for a sprinter. And I'm not even saying one has to make the last 20 kilometers easy like in the AGR. I get that nobody wants the risk of a bunch sprint in LBL so if you want to let's just make the last 5 kilometers flat and the race before that very hilly. No way sprinters would have a chance if guys like Valverde start to attack on a ramp like RaF.DFA123 said:Well, some of them can ride on it. Valverde and Kwiatkowski, for example, are decent rouleurs. But they're not going to be able to hold off a 50 strong peloton full of sprinters and their domestiques for a significant distance. Especially when other riders in a bunch have sprinters behind so aren't pulling.
They already need multiple skillsets to win on this course - huge aerobic endurance, good anaerobic endurance, a decent sprint, good positioning etc... They shouldn't have to be world class rouleurs as well - PR and RVV are the races for those skills.
Nobody is blaming Valverde. People are blaming the race organizers for the terrible course.Fernandez said:Lots of Valverde haters complaining about the parcours but, is there any kind of parcours for Liege where Valverde wouldnt be the favourite?
No.Fernandez said:Lots of Valverde haters complaining about the parcours but, is there any kind of parcours for Liege where Valverde wouldnt be the favourite?
Nobody is blaming Valverde. People are blaming the race organizers for the terrible course.Fernandez said:Lots of Valverde haters complaining about the parcours but, is there any kind of parcours for Liege where Valverde wouldnt be the favourite?
We should put some blame on the riders and directeur sportifs as well. That said, several riders tried to get away. The headwind didn't help things.Velolover2 said:Nobody is blaming Valverde. People are blaming the race organizers for the terrible course.Fernandez said:Lots of Valverde haters complaining about the parcours but, is there any kind of parcours for Liege where Valverde wouldnt be the favourite?
Most blame, imo. Just like at Fleche, it seemed like many were just riding for decent position, and a few good WT points so their team car can get a nice view of races during the season. If the strongest teams in the race like Sky and Quickstep aren't go to do something with the threat of Valverde on Ans looming, I find it difficult to see them doing something about the threat of a reduced bunch sprint on a flat run in.jaylew said:We should put some blame on the riders and directeur sportifs as well. That said, several riders tried to get away. The headwind didn't help things.Velolover2 said:Nobody is blaming Valverde. People are blaming the race organizers for the terrible course.Fernandez said:Lots of Valverde haters complaining about the parcours but, is there any kind of parcours for Liege where Valverde wouldnt be the favourite?
There's been almost no action (at least by top contenders) until like 1 km to go and your takeaway is that Valverde has haters?Fernandez said:Lots of Valverde haters complaining about the parcours but, is there any kind of parcours for Liege where Valverde wouldnt be the favourite?
A LOT of themhrotha said:There's been almost no action (at least by top contenders) until like 1 km to go and your takeaway is that Valverde has haters?Fernandez said:Lots of Valverde haters complaining about the parcours but, is there any kind of parcours for Liege where Valverde wouldnt be the favourite?
Of course he has haters but there has been almost no hate thrown his way after this race. It's all been directed at the course, other riders, and directeur sportifs.Fernandez said:A LOT of themhrotha said:There's been almost no action (at least by top contenders) until like 1 km to go and your takeaway is that Valverde has haters?Fernandez said:Lots of Valverde haters complaining about the parcours but, is there any kind of parcours for Liege where Valverde wouldnt be the favourite?
There would be way less complaining if their favourites had won it.jaylew said:Of course he has haters but there has been almost no hate thrown his way after this race. It's all been directed at the course, other riders, and directeur sportifs.Fernandez said:A LOT of themhrotha said:There's been almost no action (at least by top contenders) until like 1 km to go and your takeaway is that Valverde has haters?Fernandez said:Lots of Valverde haters complaining about the parcours but, is there any kind of parcours for Liege where Valverde wouldnt be the favourite?