2017 Worlds BERGEN, NORWAY, RR ELITE, SUN 24th 277KM!

[tomorrow]

Re: Re:

Yeah, GVA has actually outsprinted Sagan in reduced bunch sprints even. So why not?

He would have a tiny chance in such a sprint, but he usually only beats Sagan when they were both in an attack. In a sprint with a relatively rested Sagan there is no way GVA would beat him. Moreover Matthews, EBH, Trentin would probably also be in such a group and I simply don't see GVA beating guys who win bunch sprints in gt's.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163644 (2016)
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149862 (2015)
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149954 (2015)

Not early attacks, at any point. Maybe 5km out but that is much more useful for comparison than a bunch sprint. This is a hilly, attritional, 250+km race. Van Avermaet we have seen can sprint as well as the best after that distance. And it's possible that Sagan and Van Avermaet finish in a sprint in a small group, in which I'd back Van Avermaet seeing Sagan's capability in those circumstances to always mess it up.

Yeah, but it seems Sagan somehow gets his head straight during wch. Maybe because he has only one card to play, which his ds had been pushing into his head for the whole week. At this time it probably is the sprint. So if it comes to it, he'll know what to do. It happening will probably be dependant on the Aussies.

No matter what, I think it will will be interesting to watch. Among other things I expect the Belgians to ignite mayhem from far out with the firepower they have. Gilbert, teuns or stuyven should go latest three laps to go.

 

[fauniera]

Re: Re:

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149862 (2015)

Arezzo was an uphill sprint. But i agree with your general point, van Avermaet can win a sprint of a reduced bunch after 250km.

 

[Durden93]

Really interested to see what Germany does without Degenkolb

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Really interested to see what Germany does without Degenkolb

The route is really hard, I cant imaging spriters fighten for this race...It is not bad for Sagan, Van Avermaet, Mathews,... but if someone makes the race hard it will be more for people of the Lieje

 

[Nirvana]

Given that its sprint, or even Sagan vs. Avarmaet, what influence will have the fact, that the last 300m are slightly downhill? I think it kind of mix the cards reasonably

Downhill sprints are the ones that loves Albasini.

 

[zapata]

Re: Re:

Really interested to see what Germany does without Degenkolb

The route is really hard, I cant imaging spriters fighten for this race...It is not bad for Sagan, Van Avermaet, Mathews,... but if someone makes the race hard it will be more for people of the Lieje

It's not THAT hard, certainly not like liege. More like msr. If the weather is nice, i can imagine gaviria, kristoff, etc in a reduced sprint. By the way, I live in Bergen and am currently going nuts trying to decide where to watch it. Where would you stand?

 

[Hakkapelit]

Kristoff laying out smokescreens - hints that he might anticipate the sprint and go on the attack before the last ascent.

 

[blaxland]

after watching u23 race ,this worlds will finish in a bunch finish of 40 or so riders......Kristoff/Mathews and sagan will be the top 3(trentin outsider)

 

[zapata]

Re:

Kristoff laying out smokescreens - hints that he might anticipate the sprint and go on the attack before the last ascent.

That's how he won RvV. Still, I think it'll be ebh that goes with kWiatkovski, sagan and avermaet on the last lap, and kristoff descending like crazy behind yhem.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Yeah, GVA has actually outsprinted Sagan in reduced bunch sprints even. So why not?

He would have a tiny chance in such a sprint, but he usually only beats Sagan when they were both in an attack. In a sprint with a relatively rested Sagan there is no way GVA would beat him. Moreover Matthews, EBH, Trentin would probably also be in such a group and I simply don't see GVA beating guys who win bunch sprints in gt's.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163644 (2016)
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149862 (2015)
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149954 (2015)

Not early attacks, at any point. Maybe 5km out but that is much more useful for comparison than a bunch sprint. This is a hilly, attritional, 250+km race. Van Avermaet we have seen can sprint as well as the best after that distance. And it's possible that Sagan and Van Avermaet finish in a sprint in a small group, in which I'd back Van Avermaet seeing Sagan's capability in those circumstances to always mess it up.

I'm not arguing about that. We have seen again and again that Sagan screws up sprints out of small groups. The only thing I'm saying is that if this ends in a relatively big sprint, GVA won't become WC. I also completely disagree about your examples. The first one in Tirreo 2016 was after an attack, where Sagan, GVA and Kwiat rode the last kilometers in a small 3 men group and Sagan did more work than GVA. Thats exactly the kind of scenario in which Sagan gets beaten in the sprint almost every time.
The other two were more or less bunch sprints but both were uphill. That's a huge difference. In the Tirreno stage 2015 the other riders in the top ten were the legendary sprinters Stybar, Pozzato, Cancellara, Geschke, Martens, Grivko, Uran and Poels and in the tdf 2015 the remaining riders in the top 10 were Bakelants, Degenkolb, Martens, Froome, Nibali, Contador, Valverde and TJVG. I really don't think these two sprints are good reasons why GVA could have a chance in the flat sprint in Bergen against Sagan, Matthews, EBH, Trentin,...

 

[kingjr]

Re:

Really interested to see what Germany does without Degenkolb

I can see Zabel getting a decent result on a good day, Arndt, too maybe. They should just sit in the field and follow wheels. Martens and/or Burghardt to go into a group, and maybe Geschke.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Yeah, GVA has actually outsprinted Sagan in reduced bunch sprints even. So why not?

He would have a tiny chance in such a sprint, but he usually only beats Sagan when they were both in an attack. In a sprint with a relatively rested Sagan there is no way GVA would beat him. Moreover Matthews, EBH, Trentin would probably also be in such a group and I simply don't see GVA beating guys who win bunch sprints in gt's.

Let's not pretend Trentin was winning against Kittel and Greipel in the Vuelta sprints. Or that Sagan will be shepherded to the red kite by the Bora train from the Giro.

Matthews might have an advantage on GVA based on being in better form more recently, but GVA has a better track record of getting it done at classics, and will have the stronger team behind him.

 

[The Hegelian]

*****Sagan, GVA, Kwia
****Matthews, EBH, Gilbert
***Gaviria, Viviani, Trentin, Kristoff

Almost tempted to give Moscon 6 stars.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

At first glance I thought this route was too easy, but after seeing the U23 race, I actually think it's pretty good. It's selective enough that you can make a difference, but not too hard meaning that you have to make the race hard and ride aggressively if you want to make that difference.

 

[Singer01]

Does anyone winning this prevent Froome winning the Velo d'or?

 

[sucotash]

Re:

Does anyone winning this prevent Froome winning the Velo d'or?

Dumoulin, Kwiato or Van Avermaet

 

[Bardamu]

Re:

Does anyone winning this prevent Froome winning the Velo d'or?

Dumoulin and perhaps Kwiatkowski.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re:

Does anyone winning this prevent Froome winning the Velo d'or?

Lombardia could have an influence as well for someone like Dumoulin or Kwiatkowski

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

Does anyone winning this prevent Froome winning the Velo d'or?

Lombardia could have an influence as well for someone like Dumoulin or Kwiatkowski

Hardly.
Froome's achievement hasn't been seen for decades, and Velo d'or is leaned towards ASO's events.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Does anyone winning this prevent Froome winning the Velo d'or?

Lombardia could have an influence as well for someone like Dumoulin or Kwiatkowski

Only if they win both, and handily. Or GvA wins both.

 

[Jagartrott]

Who will work for who in the Italian team? If there's a reduced peloton with Trentin, Viviani and Colbrelli still there, who is the designated sprinter?

 

[Laplaz]

What about Uran? Would be nice seeing him on the podium.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Who will work for who in the Italian team? If there's a reduced peloton with Trentin, Viviani and Colbrelli still there, who is the designated sprinter?

It's OK, Viviani won't be there. I think the plan is to not work at all and just follow moves, and work in said moves if the opportunity arises. Obviously Bennati and Puccio are pure domestiques. But as to your question, I imagine whoever feels best going into the last 5km. They are deciding it tonight.

 

[Keram]

Too big groups in U23 and juniors as well. It is possible that somebody will win solo but I think there will be 30-40 bunch sprint for placings surely and probably for gold as well.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Does anyone winning this prevent Froome winning the Velo d'or?

Dumoulin, Kwiato or Van Avermaet

I'd say you could make an argument for GVA or Dumo. Kwia would have to also win Lombardia.