2017 Worlds BERGEN, NORWAY, RR ELITE, SUN 24th 277KM!

[RedheadDane]

Re:

My favorites:

***** Sagan
**** Kristoff, Viviani, Gaviria
*** Trentin, Hagen, Matthews
** Colbrelli, GVA, Kwiatkowski, Stuyven, Wellens
* Mezgec, Van Poppel, Alaphilippe, Nielsen, Albasini, Gilbert, Ulissi, Arndt, Naesen, Benoot, S. Andersen, Stybar, Swift, Drucker, Moscon

Cort, or some random Norwegian?

 

[HelloDolly]

Big Tom ftw

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Almost 80 riders entering the last lap together in the U23 race. Not the best sign.

 

[portugal11]

Re:

Almost 80 riders entering the last lap together in the U23 race. Not the best sign.

This race is for sagan for sure

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Almost 80 riders entering the last lap together in the U23 race. Not the best sign.

Senior race is 80km (and presumably about 2hrs) longer. More tired legs by the end, more gaps appearing on the hill the last time over it? Everyone thought the Richmond course would be a sprint too.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Almost 80 riders entering the last lap together in the U23 race. Not the best sign.

But at the end two riders made it to the finish alone and the group behind them was also really small. It's basically exactly like I expected it. A bunch sprint is possible but sprint out of a small group a bit more likely.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I'm still, or actually even more, convinced now it will be a 30-40 man group sprint.

It is possible to stay away but you need a really strong small group or an insanely strong solo rider to pull it off. A group sprint is far more likely. Betting on Sagan/GVA/Matthews is safe. That's for sure

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

I'm still, or actually even more, convinced now it will be a 30-40 man group sprint.

It is possible to stay away but you need a really strong small group or an insanely strong solo rider to pull it off. A group sprint is far more likely. Betting on Sagan/GVA/Matthews is safe. That's for sure

Wait what? You think it will end in a reduced bunch sprint but at the same time you think GVA is one of the 3 biggest favorites?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yeah, GVA has actually outsprinted Sagan in reduced bunch sprints even. So why not?

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

I'm still, or actually even more, convinced now it will be a 30-40 man group sprint.

It is possible to stay away but you need a really strong small group or an insanely strong solo rider to pull it off. A group sprint is far more likely. Betting on Sagan/GVA/Matthews is safe. That's for sure

Wait what? You think it will end in a reduced bunch sprint but at the same time you think GVA is one of the 3 biggest favorites?

There won't be anyone in such a sprint that GVA hasn't beaten before. It'll be the kind of finish where the likes of Kwiat, Colbrelli, Modolo, Alaphilippe, Gilbert will all have a chance too. Valverde if he was riding would be a contender.

Obviously if Kristoff or Boassen-Hagen make it to the finale, they suddenly become equal or bigger favourites.

 

[Brullnux]

It's like a more attritional Milano sanremo.

 

[Squire]

It's got reduced bunch sprint and an underwhelming Mezgec win written all over it.

 

[sir fly]

U23 race didn't reveal much regarding the probable outcome of elite race. Could end in several ways.
The course is good, and not that easy at all. The way it's going to be raced should be decisive.

 

[Rollthedice]

What about Dumoulin doing what his teammate Kemna did today with Alaphilippe in the role of the French guy who won the U23?

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Yeah, GVA has actually outsprinted Sagan in reduced bunch sprints even. So why not?

He would have a tiny chance in such a sprint, but he usually only beats Sagan when they were both in an attack. In a sprint with a relatively rested Sagan there is no way GVA would beat him. Moreover Matthews, EBH, Trentin would probably also be in such a group and I simply don't see GVA beating guys who win bunch sprints in gt's.

 

[Laplaz]

France will attack like madmans. Calmejane ftw!

 

[sir fly]

What about Dumoulin doing what his teammate Kemna did today with Alaphilippe in the role of the French guy who won the U23?

Could happen... Even though Dumo should be marked heavier than Kamna.
He's in form and could roll off quickly.
Alaphilippe would have to pick the right moment, otherwise he won't be alone after Dumo.

 

[Pennino]

Re:

No. I know the men can handle that better because the level difference isn't as big.

You should read better. I'm talking specifically about the stretches of road. There really are quite some false flat's and tricky sections which make the course harder than it looks like on profile.

Check!

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

France will attack like madmans. Calmejane ftw!

Gallopin is their best bet imo

 

[HelloDolly]

If a bunch sprint I think Kristoff will get it

But Belgium will not want to leave it to a bunch sprint ...even a reduced one like in 2014 and even with GVA ....Sagan is too much of a threat

Later attacks will include EBH, Gilbert, Kwaito, Gallopin, Mollema, LuLu & Ulissi ....
Leaving Australia & Sagan to chase

Could be an outside rider like Uran or Impey taking it on the counter

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Yeah, GVA has actually outsprinted Sagan in reduced bunch sprints even. So why not?

He would have a tiny chance in such a sprint, but he usually only beats Sagan when they were both in an attack. In a sprint with a relatively rested Sagan there is no way GVA would beat him. Moreover Matthews, EBH, Trentin would probably also be in such a group and I simply don't see GVA beating guys who win bunch sprints in gt's.

I think you underrate GVA in a sprint after 250km and after a tough race. Not comparable to bunch sprint gt's. You are too black/white in your thinking

 

[tomorrow]

Given that its sprint, or even Sagan vs. Avarmaet, what influence will have the fact, that the last 300m are slightly downhill? I think it kind of mix the cards reasonably

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Given that its sprint, or even Sagan vs. Avarmaet, what influence will have the fact, that the last 300m are slightly downhill? I think it kind of mix the cards reasonably

But it is downhill after a series of corners. I actually like the corners. Makes it suitable for a late attempt on the downhill or false flat/flat sections in the finale.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Gallopin to Oyonnax the peloton.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Yeah, GVA has actually outsprinted Sagan in reduced bunch sprints even. So why not?

He would have a tiny chance in such a sprint, but he usually only beats Sagan when they were both in an attack. In a sprint with a relatively rested Sagan there is no way GVA would beat him. Moreover Matthews, EBH, Trentin would probably also be in such a group and I simply don't see GVA beating guys who win bunch sprints in gt's.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163644 (2016)
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149862 (2015)
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149954 (2015)

Not early attacks, at any point. Maybe 5km out but that is much more useful for comparison than a bunch sprint. This is a hilly, attritional, 250+km race. Van Avermaet we have seen can sprint as well as the best after that distance. And it's possible that Sagan and Van Avermaet finish in a sprint in a small group, in which I'd back Van Avermaet seeing Sagan's capability in those circumstances to always mess it up.