2017 Worlds BERGEN, NORWAY, RR ELITE, SUN 24th 277KM!

[SKSemtex]

Belgium is super strong, but thanks to Trentin convincing Vuelta performance Sagan has another strong ally.
If we add Australia, Norway or even Colombia his chances are pretty high comparing the races where he rides practically against the whole peloton.
His weakest point is his bike . Any flat or mechanical will cause madness in the peloton.
For him, there will be no chance to come back .
No mercies for him like for GVA in PR.

 

[del1962]

Britain wants an easy race, so they can have some finishers

 

[Pennino]

Passive racing will most likely kill this, like all the other RR's I've witnessed. Strong 2nd tier captains can probably attack, but then inevitably will start to look at eachother. As will happen also in an attack with Sagan and Van Avermaet in it. With rain this could be something like Florence '13, but in sunny conditions, meh...

 

[Blanco]

Too many teams wants a hard race, so I think hard race it will be

 

[tomorrow]

Belgium is super strong, but thanks to Trentin convincing Vuelta performance Sagan has another strong ally.
If we add Australia, Norway or even Colombia his chances are pretty high comparing the races where he rides practically against the whole peloton.
His weakest point is his bike . Any flat or mechanical will cause madness in the peloton.
For him, there will be no chance to come back .
No mercies for him like for GVA in PR.

And who would be the ally of those two, Belgium or Trentin?

 

[SKSemtex]

Belgium is super strong, but thanks to Trentin convincing Vuelta performance Sagan has another strong ally.
If we add Australia, Norway or even Colombia his chances are pretty high comparing the races where he rides practically against the whole peloton.
His weakest point is his bike . Any flat or mechanical will cause madness in the peloton.
For him, there will be no chance to come back .
No mercies for him like for GVA in PR.

And who would be the ally of those two, Belgium or Trentin?

Trentin of course! :lol: Isolated Sagan cannot chase all those attacks from Belgium. And it can be a situation that Sagan is alone in a group that still has 4+5 Belgians.

I do not think Sagan will initiate any longer attack. He needs only to control the race. He knows he will be outnumbered in the final group, and for sure GVA will have somebody with him.

 

[Blanco]

I think Sagan shouldn't and won't do nothing till the very end. He can't go solo, and nobody will work with him. He should stay put until the last climb and then follow moves, saving himself for one final blow in the sprint, or very late attack.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

I think Sagan shouldn't and won't do nothing till the very end. He can't go solo, and nobody will work with him. He should stay put until the last climb and then follow moves, saving himself for one final blow in the sprint, or very late attack.

Exactly. There is no sense for him to initiate the final selection. As you said, he cannot go solo, and in case of the strong final selection, he would have to do the most of the work just to be outsprinted in the line with the "smartest" guy.
There are not too many riders who can outsprint him on the end on this round if he keeps energy for the final kick. *** Gaviria ? / Trentin
**Kristof /EBH/Mathews
* Gilbert, Kwiatko, GVA

 

[Bardamu]

Belgium should make the race hard and attack with 2 laps to go with Wellens and Gilbert. Let Greg stay in the wheel of Sagan.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

Belgium should make the race hard and attack with 2 laps to go with Wellens and Gilbert. Let Greg stay in the wheel of Sagan.

Route is not selective enough, there will be a lot of domestics from other teams helping Sagan to bring thouse two back. Two laps to go is too late. If Belgium wants to win this race they have to push hard and cut peloton to pieces from lap 1

 

[Durden93]

I actually think Geelong is a good comparison to this route. A moderately tough climb relatively early in the circuit which could probably force a selection but is not hard enough/close enough to the finish for a solo attack to be successful. With that being said, I don't expect a large group sprint.

Since 2002 there have been 6 bunch sprints of 20+ riders. 3 of those were on completely flat circuits. I expect Italy and Belgium to try and blow this apart. Small break to contest the victory.

 

[Frankschleck]

The teams will go for a hard race, because then sagan will be easier to beat in the sprint. He is not as fast in a sprint after a hard race

 

[yaco]

Think the parcours will suit a brave rider - Alaphalippe, Gilbert and Kwiatkovski are my selections.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

The teams will go for a hard race, because then sagan will be easier to beat in the sprint. He is not as fast in a sprint after a hard race

That's true but it's because he is almost always one of the guys making it a hard race and usually doing more than his share of work in the process.

 

[Frankschleck]

Re: Re:

The teams will go for a hard race, because then sagan will be easier to beat in the sprint. He is not as fast in a sprint after a hard race

That's true but it's because he is almost always one of the guys making it a hard race and usually doing more than his share of work in the process.

yeah agree, but still the best way to challenge him.

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

The teams will go for a hard race, because then sagan will be easier to beat in the sprint. He is not as fast in a sprint after a hard race

That's true but it's because he is almost always one of the guys making it a hard race and usually doing more than his share of work in the process.

yeah agree, but still the best way to challenge him.

The problem is there aren't too many places on this route to make the race difficult, which is unfortunate. Assuming Norway and Australia play for the sprint this race risks being too controlled.

 

[bob.a.feet]

I hope Sagan wins as I like when the world champion wins big races

 

[tomorrow]

Re: Re:

The teams will go for a hard race, because then sagan will be easier to beat in the sprint. He is not as fast in a sprint after a hard race

That's true but it's because he is almost always one of the guys making it a hard race and usually doing more than his share of work in the process.

yeah agree, but still the best way to challenge him.

The problem is there aren't too many places on this route to make the race difficult, which is unfortunate. Assuming Norway and Australia play for the sprint this race risks being too controlled.

Exactly, belgium and italy need to make it hard enough to isolate Mathews and not hard enough to make to too selective. Then Sagan is doomed. If it's too selective, there might not be enough of them to drop Sagan, or somebody from other country could be the lucky attacker. If Aussies are in high number in the last two laps, they will close the gaps for Sagan, as Mathews has pretty good chance of beating Sagan. And Sagan would gladly take this scenario, because in any possible endings, he has the highest odds in sprint against Mathews and Kristoff/Hagen(not necerailly only one of the northmen ).

 

[The Barb]

The more I think about this the more it seems perfect for Matthews ...

Ideal course to trim down those riders who are clearly faster than him.
Has targeted it for months, reconning the course extensively.
Has a full team built solely around him.
Almost 27yo, so right into his prime.
2nd and 4th in the last two worlds.
In strong form - not just TTT but was super in Quebec when Dumoulin left him exposed too early.

Of course, Sagan is deserving favourite but to me Matthews is not far behind.

 

[fauniera]

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

The teams will go for a hard race, because then sagan will be easier to beat in the sprint. He is not as fast in a sprint after a hard race

That's true but it's because he is almost always one of the guys making it a hard race and usually doing more than his share of work in the process.

yeah agree, but still the best way to challenge him.

The problem is there aren't too many places on this route to make the race difficult, which is unfortunate. Assuming Norway and Australia play for the sprint this race risks being too controlled.

Exactly, belgium and italy need to make it hard enough to isolate Mathews and not hard enough to make to too selective. Then Sagan is doomed. If it's too selective, there might not be enough of them to drop Sagan, or somebody from other country could be the lucky attacker. If Aussies are in high number in the last two laps, they will close the gaps for Sagan, as Mathews has pretty good chance of beating Sagan. And Sagan would gladly take this scenario, because in any possible endings, he has the highest odds in sprint against Mathews and Kristoff/Hagen(not necerailly only one of the northmen ).

With one correction. I still do not understand, why you are talking about Belgium and Italy as an ally. Italy has Trentin, who is probably in the same level as Mathews as far as the climbing and sprint is concerned and both of them were in superb form two weeks ago. They will control the Belgium riders hoping for reduced bunch sprint for Trentin too.

 

[tomorrow]

Re: Re:

With one correction. I still do not understand, why you are talking about Belgium and Italy as an ally. Italy has Trentin, who is probably in the same level as Mathews as far as the climbing and sprint is concerned and both of them were in superb form two weeks ago. They will control the Belgium riders hoping for reduced bunch sprint for Trentin too.

Because italy will not jurt go one trentins sprint. Yup he won many in vuelta, but against what opposition? Also, unless I overlooked something I can't remember trentin being a factor in 250km+ race. Finally, if he will be a factor, iho he has a better chance of winning sprint forom a late attack grooup with no sagan,gva or mathews

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

With one correction. I still do not understand, why you are talking about Belgium and Italy as an ally. Italy has Trentin, who is probably in the same level as Mathews as far as the climbing and sprint is concerned and both of them were in superb form two weeks ago. They will control the Belgium riders hoping for reduced bunch sprint for Trentin too.

Because italy will not jurt go one trentins sprint. Yup he won many in vuelta, but against what opposition? Also, unless I overlooked something I can't remember trentin being a factor in 250km+ race. Finally, if he will be a factor, iho he has a better chance of winning sprint forom a late attack grooup with no sagan,gva or mathews

Of course, Italy will have somebody in the break, but when everything comes close to the end Trentin is by far their best option. I would not underestimate him because the lack of results in spring classics, where he is the most of the time very useful domestic. He has already beaten Sagan in 239 km TDF hilly stage.
He was one of the best in the beginning of the year in QS team.
The field in Vuelta was not the best one, but his dominance was huge and Vuelta has proven that he can handle hill pretty well. I would put my money on him anytime these days against the Mathews.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

With one correction. I still do not understand, why you are talking about Belgium and Italy as an ally. Italy has Trentin, who is probably in the same level as Mathews as far as the climbing and sprint is concerned and both of them were in superb form two weeks ago. They will control the Belgium riders hoping for reduced bunch sprint for Trentin too.

Because italy will not jurt go one trentins sprint. Yup he won many in vuelta, but against what opposition? Also, unless I overlooked something I can't remember trentin being a factor in 250km+ race. Finally, if he will be a factor, iho he has a better chance of winning sprint forom a late attack grooup with no sagan,gva or mathews

I would back up Trentin any day in a sprint against Van Avermaet!

 

[Frankschleck]

Lars Boom and Albasani are my wildcards.