2017 Worlds BERGEN, NORWAY, RR ELITE, SUN 24th 277KM!

[Frankschleck]

mezgec,richeze and impey have decent chances as well

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

Really interested to see what Germany does without Degenkolb

The route is really hard, I cant imaging spriters fighten for this race...It is not bad for Sagan, Van Avermaet, Mathews,... but if someone makes the race hard it will be more for people of the Lieje

It's not THAT hard, certainly not like liege. More like msr. If the weather is nice, i can imagine gaviria, kristoff, etc in a reduced sprint. By the way, I live in Bergen and am currently going nuts trying to decide where to watch it. Where would you stand?

I would probably watch on Salman Hill. If it's too crowded maybe a small hill.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Does anyone winning this prevent Froome winning the Velo d'or?

Lombardia could have an influence as well for someone like Dumoulin or Kwiatkowski

Hardly.
Froome's achievement hasn't been seen for decades, and Velo d'or is leaned towards ASO's events.

Does it help that Kwiatkowski did more to win Froome the Tour than anyone else, almost including Froome?

 

[Jungle Cycle]

is radio allowed in this race??

 

[sir fly]

Re:

is radio allowed in this race??

Evangeliske sanger only.

Does anyone winning this prevent Froome winning the Velo d'or?

Lombardia could have an influence as well for someone like Dumoulin or Kwiatkowski

Hardly.
Froome's achievement hasn't been seen for decades, and Velo d'or is leaned towards ASO's events.

Does it help that Kwiatkowski did more to win Froome the Tour than anyone else, almost including Froome?

I doubt...

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I'm a bit more optimistic about the racing in the men's race after seeing the women's race. It wasn't at all easy to control strong attackers.

 

[RedheadDane]

I kinda hope Norway gets a medal. They haven't gotten one medal on home-soil.

It doesn't have to be gold, just... let them have a medal.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

I'm a bit more optimistic about the racing in the men's race after seeing the women's race. It wasn't at all easy to control strong attackers.

The Dutch had the race under complete control. Salmon Hill is really nothing. A climber can't make the difference there. It's all about the tactical moves on the flat sections in the final two laps. It can be a big advantage to have more than one rider in the front.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re:

Too big groups in U23 and juniors as well. It is possible that somebody will win solo but I think there will be 30-40 bunch sprint for placings surely and probably for gold as well.

That's my call as well. It's a great course for Sagan (OK, anything not ridiculously simple or hard would be), but his health is a question mark (maybe he's faking).

I'll be shouting for EBH and Flowers.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Too big groups in U23 and juniors as well. It is possible that somebody will win solo but I think there will be 30-40 bunch sprint for placings surely and probably for gold as well.

I'm a bit confused. One (both junior races) and two (U23) is "too big a group"?

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

I'm a bit more optimistic about the racing in the men's race after seeing the women's race. It wasn't at all easy to control strong attackers.

In the women's race, there was one team of 8 and a few of 7. Most below 6. In the men's, there are ten teams of nine.

However, luckily, only three are certain to want a sprint - Norway, Australia and Colombia. Norway and colombia cannot control a race by themselves, only the Australians are able to. Of the other seven, Spain have a pretty weak team but I imagine they'll want to attack, the UK likewise. France, Netherlands and Belgium are strong and will almost certainly try to make the race hard so a GvA/Alaphillipe/Gilbert/Gallopin/Dumo attack works. Germany can't really afford to sit back, but they don't have the strongest team. Italy have said that they will look to follow moves, meaning they won't chase moves down as long as they don't miss them. Then there's Slovakia and maybe Slovenia who might want a sprint. But maybe we are in luck, there aren't that many strong sprinters here.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

I'm a bit more optimistic about the racing in the men's race after seeing the women's race. It wasn't at all easy to control strong attackers.

In the women's race, there was one team of 8 and a few of 7. Most below 6. In the men's, there are ten teams of nine.

However, luckily, only three are certain to want a sprint - Norway, Australia and Colombia. Norway and colombia cannot control a race by themselves, only the Australians are able to. Of the other seven, Spain have a pretty weak team but I imagine they'll want to attack, the UK likewise. France, Netherlands and Belgium are strong and will almost certainly try to make the race hard so a GvA/Alaphillipe/Gilbert/Gallopin/Dumo attack works. Germany can't really afford to sit back, but they don't have the strongest team. Italy have said that they will look to follow moves, meaning they won't chase moves down as long as they don't miss them. Then there's Slovakia and maybe Slovenia who might want a sprint. But maybe we are in luck, there aren't that many strong sprinters here.

My information is Australia doesn't want a sprint - Expect Matthews to attack if he has good legs.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

I'm a bit more optimistic about the racing in the men's race after seeing the women's race. It wasn't at all easy to control strong attackers.

In the women's race, there was one team of 8 and a few of 7. Most below 6. In the men's, there are ten teams of nine.

However, luckily, only three are certain to want a sprint - Norway, Australia and Colombia. Norway and colombia cannot control a race by themselves, only the Australians are able to. Of the other seven, Spain have a pretty weak team but I imagine they'll want to attack, the UK likewise. France, Netherlands and Belgium are strong and will almost certainly try to make the race hard so a GvA/Alaphillipe/Gilbert/Gallopin/Dumo attack works. Germany can't really afford to sit back, but they don't have the strongest team. Italy have said that they will look to follow moves, meaning they won't chase moves down as long as they don't miss them. Then there's Slovakia and maybe Slovenia who might want a sprint. But maybe we are in luck, there aren't that many strong sprinters here.

My information is Australia doesn't want a sprint - Expect Matthews to attack if he has good legs.

I don't see him starting an attack but I do see him going with an attack and working in a small group that has a key guy or two in it.

 

[Keram]

Re: Re:

Too big groups in U23 and juniors as well. It is possible that somebody will win solo but I think there will be 30-40 bunch sprint for placings surely and probably for gold as well.

I'm a bit confused. One (both junior races) and two (U23) is "too big a group"?

Yes U23, juniors and women were basically solo wins but big groups of 30-40 cyclists started on medal positions each kategory. Elite men will hold it together.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

I'm a bit more optimistic about the racing in the men's race after seeing the women's race. It wasn't at all easy to control strong attackers.

In the women's race, there was one team of 8 and a few of 7. Most below 6. In the men's, there are ten teams of nine.

However, luckily, only three are certain to want a sprint - Norway, Australia and Colombia. Norway and colombia cannot control a race by themselves, only the Australians are able to. Of the other seven, Spain have a pretty weak team but I imagine they'll want to attack, the UK likewise. France, Netherlands and Belgium are strong and will almost certainly try to make the race hard so a GvA/Alaphillipe/Gilbert/Gallopin/Dumo attack works. Germany can't really afford to sit back, but they don't have the strongest team. Italy have said that they will look to follow moves, meaning they won't chase moves down as long as they don't miss them. Then there's Slovakia and maybe Slovenia who might want a sprint. But maybe we are in luck, there aren't that many strong sprinters here.

My information is Australia doesn't want a sprint - Expect Matthews to attack if he has good legs.

I don't see him starting an attack but I do see him going with an attack and working in a small group that has a key guy or two in it.

That is a likely scenario - The smaller the group the better for Matthews.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

I'm a bit more optimistic about the racing in the men's race after seeing the women's race. It wasn't at all easy to control strong attackers.

In the women's race, there was one team of 8 and a few of 7. Most below 6. In the men's, there are ten teams of nine.

However, luckily, only three are certain to want a sprint - Norway, Australia and Colombia. Norway and colombia cannot control a race by themselves, only the Australians are able to. Of the other seven, Spain have a pretty weak team but I imagine they'll want to attack, the UK likewise. France, Netherlands and Belgium are strong and will almost certainly try to make the race hard so a GvA/Alaphillipe/Gilbert/Gallopin/Dumo attack works. Germany can't really afford to sit back, but they don't have the strongest team. Italy have said that they will look to follow moves, meaning they won't chase moves down as long as they don't miss them. Then there's Slovakia and maybe Slovenia who might want a sprint. But maybe we are in luck, there aren't that many strong sprinters here.

I don't see Colombian's work too much, I see them following moves and trying to go in the late breaks, especially Uran and Pantano. Gaviria is far from certain to survive the climbs and finish with the best. Only Norway and Australia will put men on the front, maybe Slovakia also but they wont last long. I think this may be won by 2nd or 3rd card of some teams. Sprinters will not survive I think, their teams are in minority and not strong enough. Strongest teams will want a hard race, and when they send their 2nd or 3rd riders, like for example Wellens, Gallopin, Ulissi, Luis Leon, Uran, etc, I'm wondering who the hell is going to catch that break. Certainly not Norway or Australia.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

I'm a bit more optimistic about the racing in the men's race after seeing the women's race. It wasn't at all easy to control strong attackers.

In the women's race, there was one team of 8 and a few of 7. Most below 6. In the men's, there are ten teams of nine.

However, luckily, only three are certain to want a sprint - Norway, Australia and Colombia. Norway and colombia cannot control a race by themselves, only the Australians are able to. Of the other seven, Spain have a pretty weak team but I imagine they'll want to attack, the UK likewise. France, Netherlands and Belgium are strong and will almost certainly try to make the race hard so a GvA/Alaphillipe/Gilbert/Gallopin/Dumo attack works. Germany can't really afford to sit back, but they don't have the strongest team. Italy have said that they will look to follow moves, meaning they won't chase moves down as long as they don't miss them. Then there's Slovakia and maybe Slovenia who might want a sprint. But maybe we are in luck, there aren't that many strong sprinters here.

I don't see Colombian's work too much, I see them following moves and trying to go in the late breaks, especially Uran and Pantano. Gaviria is far from certain to survive the climbs and finish with the best. Only Norway and Australia will put men on the front, maybe Slovakia also but they wont last long. I think this may be won by 2nd or 3rd card of some teams. Sprinters will not survive I think, their teams are in minority and not strong enough. Strongest teams will want a hard race, and when they send their 2nd or 3rd riders, like for example Wellens, Gallopin, Ulissi, Luis Leon, Uran, etc, I'm wondering who the hell is going to catch that break. Certainly not Norway or Australia.

Yes, that wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[Netserk]

Look out for the mercenaries. I could see Burghardt lending a hand in the chase, as an example.

 

[Andy262]

The usual bunch of 50p ew's on Uran, Benoot, Roglic, Poels and Di Marchi. And a slightly bigger ew on GvA for which I was quite happy with 16-1.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

What about Uran? Would be nice seeing him on the podium.

He wanst bad in Canada, of course he has his chances, but Colombia needs to make a hard race, and he has to take risk.. in a group with Sagan or Van Avermaet he has no chances at the sprint..and the last 10 Km are almost flat.
For me is one of the favourites, but with rain he is not so good as others.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

What about Uran? Would be nice seeing him on the podium.

He wanst bad in Canada, of course he has his chances, but Colombia needs to make a hard race, and he has to take risk.. in a group with Sagan or Van Avermaet he has no chances at the sprint..and the last 10 Km are almost flat.
For me is one of the favourites, but with rain he is not so good as others.

He was pretty good in Florence in the rain in 2013

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

Really interested to see what Germany does without Degenkolb

The route is really hard, I cant imaging spriters fighten for this race...It is not bad for Sagan, Van Avermaet, Mathews,... but if someone makes the race hard it will be more for people of the Lieje

It's not THAT hard, certainly not like liege. More like msr. If the weather is nice, i can imagine gaviria, kristoff, etc in a reduced sprint. By the way, I live in Bergen and am currently going nuts trying to decide where to watch it. Where would you stand?

MSR if it would be flat with 2 laps...but there are 11 laps and 267 Km, of course there are not the % gradient of Lieje, but there are 22 climbs, 11 of them of 4 Km.
It is the kind of circuit that could be hard if someone make the race hard. Sturgart want hard, everybody expected Freire and Cancellara, but Italy decided to make it hard the sacrified Rebellin for Bettini and it was a Liege result. And here it is at least as hard as Sturgart.
Under 23 are people in some cases who rode The Vuelta a España, and they make 100 Km less, and the race was even quite selective... yes, Elite is another level and stronger teams, but for those guys as Cortina who almost win a stage at the Vuelta, 191 Km it is not a very long race to make it very selective.


Anyway looking at the races on TV, I thought it would be a little bit selective, the clibs are quite fast and the final part more flat than I thought, but anyway it would be hard at the end

 

[Escarabajo]

I really don't understand why Viviani is considered a favorite. Maybe somebody can make a case for him.

I just saw the cyclingnews.com 10 favorites for the WC win.

 

[fauniera]

Re: Re:

but Colombia needs to make a hard race

Colombia is riding for Gaviria, so no, they don't need to make the race hard. Quite the contrary.

 

[Squire]

Re:

I really don't understand why Viviani is considered a favorite. Maybe somebody can make a case for him.

I just saw the cyclingnews.com 10 favorites for the WC win.

He did win the Plouay classic by winning the sprint from a group of 46 riders. That's not an entirely unlikely scenario tomorrow. And he's been lethal the last few months. Might be showing a few signs of fading lately, though.