2018 Paris - Roubaix

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Gilbert said after he won Flanders last year that he was going to target Paris-Roubiax this year. If he wins it, expect him to target Milan-San Remo next year.

Yeah, but still...we have no real evidence of his abilities there.

True, but he is at Quickstep. So there's that. However, my pick for Roubiax is a quickstep rider, not any specific one.

 

[LiquidCrystalDynamic]

I believe that the perfomances of Gilbert and Terpstra today should confirm Gilbert for the absolute favorite. Facts: Gilbert's greatest desire is to win each monument, he had already won the Ronde, QS works very well as a team, Gilbert is an excellent team player and has been riding in support of his teammates all spring. In this role, he (and through him, QS) has been in almost complete control of the races. His presence in every small group so far has been truly imperial, I thought this before the Ronde and the race today only strengthened this opinion. He has done his service time, the others have had their turns. His form is beyond excellent, the strongest team, the smartest racer. Roubaix is the only goal for the season, I have never been more certain when I say that Gilbert will win this race.

Of course it is Roubaix...

 

[trucido]

Can't wait till this thread turns into another Sagan bashing one (see RvV) like he is the only rider who fails against the eventual winner.

 

[Keram]

Cant see past Quick Step. Strongest team has strongest rouler at the moment.

 

[El Pistolero]

Cant see past Quick Step. Strongest team has strongest rouler at the moment.

Degenkolb and Demare will be better in Roubaix than the Ronde.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

1. Kristoff
2. Sep VM
3. Rowe

Starting to dislike QS during the classics, bit like SKY in the GT's. Sagan, well........... he just needs all the other teams to annul all the attacks then drag him to the line so he can win the sprint. Or jump on the wheel of the first QS rider to attack and hope they stay away.

 

[rick james]

KRISTOFF

 

[GP Blanco]

Re:

1. Kristoff
2. Sep VM
3. Rowe

Starting to dislike QS during the classics, bit like SKY in the GT's. Sagan, well........... he just needs all the other teams to annul all the attacks then drag him to the line so he can win the sprint. Or jump on the wheel of the first QS rider to attack and hope they stay away.

But they make for far better racing. It is not like they are towing someone to the finish.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Kristoff does not like the rough cobbles of Northern France.

 

[Winnen]

Should we consider Pedersen as a potential winner also? He was mighty impressive today.

I hope todays QS victory will lead to other teams taking more risks. I mean, if they don't change anything in their tactics then QS will be there to play out their numbers.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Should we consider Pedersen as a potential winner also? He was mighty impressive today.

Let's be realistical here.
22-year-olds don't win P-R that often, do they?

 

[El Pistolero]

Re: Re:

Should we consider Pedersen as a potential winner also? He was mighty impressive today.

Let's be realistical here.
22-year-olds don't win P-R that often, do they?

Boonen was third at that age.

 

[RedheadDane]

Boonen is, well, Boonen!

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Should we consider Pedersen as a potential winner also? He was mighty impressive today.

Let's be realistical here.
22-year-olds don't win P-R that often, do they?

Boonen was third at that age.

Still, he announced himself. Pedersen may well do something similar but I don’t see him winning - yet.

 

[Eli]

Re:

I hope todays QS victory will lead to other teams taking more risks. I mean, if they don't change anything in their tactics then QS will be there to play out their numbers.

They can't as no one team is strong enough to match them. The only chance is for the stronger riders to form an alliance and I really don't see that happening.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

1. Kristoff
2. Sep VM
3. Rowe

Starting to dislike QS during the classics, bit like SKY in the GT's. Sagan, well........... he just needs all the other teams to annul all the attacks then drag him to the line so he can win the sprint. Or jump on the wheel of the first QS rider to attack and hope they stay away.

But they make for far better racing. It is not like they are towing someone to the finish.

This. If Sky won GTs by sending random guys off the front on flyer attacks, and sitting on the wheels while others chase, and not caring if it was Froome, Thomas, Poels, or whoever in yellow at the finish, it’d be a lot more entertaining than a train on the front wearing down other GC contenders one by one for the sake of one guy.

 

[Breh]

Make it happen Phil!

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

1. Kristoff
2. Sep VM
3. Rowe

Starting to dislike QS during the classics, bit like SKY in the GT's. Sagan, well........... he just needs all the other teams to annul all the attacks then drag him to the line so he can win the sprint. Or jump on the wheel of the first QS rider to attack and hope they stay away.

But they make for far better racing. It is not like they are towing someone to the finish.

This. If Sky won GTs by sending random guys off the front on flyer attacks, and sitting on the wheels while others chase, and not caring if it was Froome, Thomas, Poels, or whoever in yellow at the finish, it’d be a lot more entertaining than a train on the front wearing down other GC contenders one by one for the sake of one guy.

This. Also why although Movistar was by far the dominant team at Catalonia the race was much more entertaining. They didn't ride in a train they sent riders on the attack, and they were actually riding for Valverde.

 

[trucido]

Second last chance for GvA to stop his classics seasons being a complete and utter failure.

 

[therhodeo]

That Senechal, Keisse, De Clercq bit is going to be worse at P-R than it was in Flanders.

 

[LiquidCrystalDynamic]

Re:

That Senechal, Keisse, De Clercq bit is going to be worse at P-R than it was in Flanders.

Do you mean they will be less effective teammates at PR then Flanders? I would say all three riders are more suited to Roubaix then Flanders. At Cofidis Senechal had much better results at Roubaix then Flanders.

And I find it difficult to expect much from Greg on Sunday. Other than at Oman, he has not looked stronger than his competition, and certainly not as strong as last season. It is also possible that, with Flanders being by far the main target of his entire season, he is less prepared for Roubaix than he might otherwise be. Lately he has looked more like pre-2016 Greg.

 

[therhodeo]

Re: Re:

That Senechal, Keisse, De Clercq bit is going to be worse at P-R than it was in Flanders.

Do you mean they will be less effective teammates at PR then Flanders? I would say all three riders are more suited to Roubaix then Flanders. At Cofidis Senechal had much better results at Roubaix then Flanders.
.

Worse on everyone else I mean.

 

[GraftPunk]

1. Sagan
2. Gilbert
3. Stybar

 

[spiritualride]

OP if making the OP, please add the race profile or map for everyone's convenience?

Almost 30 riders with betting odds at least 1% chance of winning, if I'm interpreting correctly. Suggesting:

*****: Sagan (~20% chance)
****: GVA, Terpstra, Vanmarcke, Gilbert (~10% chance each)
***: Stybar, Degenkolb, Van Aert (~5%)
**: Demare, Boasson Hagen, Kristoff, Styven (~3%)
*: Pedersen, Lampaert, Naesen, Moscon, Tony Martin, Stannard, Haussler, Trentin (~1%)

Giving Quickstep ~30% chance of winning.

So how will this play out? Some ideas:

A) Either a QS rider gets away solo, with +2 other QS riders marking any chases

B) A small group sprint. GVA, Sagan, Vanmarcke, etc chase down any QS attacks, and QS chases down any of their attacks. Sprint battle that may potentially involve Sagan, GVA, Degenkolb, EBH, Kristoff, Demare, etc.. Sagan favorite to win in this situation, and the others having a good chance though if they are in that group and have any legs left.

C) A rider solos on the latter cobbles, either with dominating legs or nearly-dominating legs combined with some luck. A puncture or crash among the top five riders in the last 30km could decide it. Is this Vanmarcke's way to victory? A devastating attack on the cobbles, on Carrefour de l'Arbre?

Am I on track here or what do you all think? I haven't been following cycling closely enough lately to speak with confidence.

 

[EroicaStradeBianche]

This year QuickStep has won every single cobbled race bar Gent. Absurd, (but last year it was GVA who was winning everything). It looks like a resurrection of the old Mapei. At this point I expect Gilbert, Terpstra and Stybar entering the velodrome after having dropped everyone, 1996 remake.