2018 Paris - Roubaix

[DonEsteban]

A') Gilbert escapes solo after all look at Sagan to chase ... but is eventually caught. Then Terpstra attacks and nobody has the legs to chase him.
Would hate to see it, but that is the most likely scenario imho.
A'') when it looks like B) will happen, Gilbert attacks from 1-2km and wins solo (Sagan marks some other QS inconsequential attack shortly before and refuses to chase Gilbert, while all others hesitate)

B) in a small group sprint, I would give GVA/Kristoff/Demare better chances than this year's Sagan, unless he did nothing of substance up to that point (unlikely).

C) this year only Terpstra has the legs for that ... Vanmarcke might get a gap, but will be easily caught

 

[Brullnux]

I honestly don't know about gilbert's chances. He's only ever raced it once which surely isn't good?

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

I’d give QS a 50/50 shot at winning. No idea apart from that.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Almost 30 riders with betting odds at least 1% chance of winning, if I'm interpreting correctly. Suggesting:

*****: Sagan (~20% chance)
****: GVA, Terpstra, Vanmarcke, Gilbert (~10% chance each)
***: Stybar, Degenkolb, Van Aert (~5%)
**: Demare, Boasson Hagen, Kristoff, Styven (~3%)
*: Pedersen, Lampaert, Naesen, Moscon, Tony Martin, Stannard, Haussler, Trentin (~1%)

I don't bet and I don't plan to start, but Lampaert really seems underrated by the bookies. I wouldn't necessarily argue he is stronger than the other guys in the 1% region, but the simple fact that he rides for quickstep should automatically put him above those guys. We have a race where nobody seems so strong that he could just let the race explode on the 5 star sectors, and we have a team with the man power to mark almost every move. This all means that a scenario with a big group after the last serious cobbles is very likely, and if that's the case, who is the QS rider the other leaders will most likely not follow? Lampaert! This race has 2014 written all over it, and who expected Terpstra to win back then?

 

[May0maniac]

Demare is better suited to Rubaix and has never been on this level in the RVV beofre, so he should do well.
Yesterday I was impressed by Politt, he should also be more of a Roubaix engine, the Martin+Politt combination could do some damage in this race, and someone like Küng could also surprise people with a long range attack.
Of course I'll always back Ganna, but it's probably too soon for him. The Roubaix cobbles could also suit a 90kg guy like Walscheid, but that's just a wild guess.
Sagan didn't look that great once he got a gap and he's usually better in the RVV, for me he isn't the clear cut favourite.
Edit: I forgot a rather obvious dark horse, Gaudin could really surprise people.

 

[SafeBet]

The bad: QS has been dominant, and most of their guys are probably better suited for Roubaix than every other cobbled classic.
The good: this is Roubaix, hence a much more unpredictable race.

Head: Terpstra, Stybar, Gilbert.
Heart: Cortina, Kung, Senechal.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

OP if making the OP, please add the race profile or map for everyone's convenience?

https://legruppetto.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=8666

Check this one out. That's a proper OP.

Once more no rain on Sunday. So another 5:30 hrs speed race. -> http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-france/orchies/59310

 

[rghysens]

Re: Re:

OP if making the OP, please add the race profile or map for everyone's convenience?

https://legruppetto.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=8666

Check this one out. That's a proper OP.

Once more no rain on Sunday. So another 5:30 hrs speed race. -> http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-france/orchies/59310

Going by that weather report there will be a headwind in the final. So probably a rather closed race.

 

[Laporte17]

Re:

The bad: QS has
Head: Terpstra, Stybar, Gilbert.
Heart: Cortina, Kung, Senechal.

Head: Laporte
Heart: Laporte, Pedersen
Eyebrow: Cortina, Cortina, Pedersen, Ganna, Erviti, Pedersen, Laporte

 

[RedheadDane]

Hope your eyebrow is a good predictor. :lol:

 

[Abebubu]

Timo Roosen ftw

 

[Lexman]

Re: Re:

OP if making the OP, please add the race profile or map for everyone's convenience?

https://legruppetto.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=8666

Check this one out. That's a proper OP.

Once more no rain on Sunday. So another 5:30 hrs speed race. -> http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-france/orchies/59310

rares averses forecasted, it might rain a bit... just to make the cobbles a little bit treacherous?

 

[markene2]

Heinrich Haussler will win this bike race

 

[tomorrow]

And what about some underdog from Bora/BMC? E.g. Burghardt and OSS has been quite good list year, they're much more suited to PR than to Flanders. I wouldn't be surprised if one of those were sent to attack early, Arrenberg or some of the following sectors.

 

[fauniera]

Re:

OP if making the OP, please add the race profile or map for everyone's convenience?

That would be nice indeed. Not sure what sense it makes to do an OP which doesn't contain any tangible information whatsoever.

 

[LiquidCrystalDynamic]

Re:

And what about some underdog from Bora/BMC?

I'm still holding out for Roelandts to get a big result, I suppose it could be Roubaix. He is very strong at the end of long, difficult races. If we see a larger group approaching the velodrome, say including riders like Demare and Degenkolb, BMC might have better chances with him then Greg. Roelandts also has the ability to go from a long way out. Hopefully if Greg is clearly not having a good day there will be time to organize some support for Roelandts.

BMC also has some young riders who could impress, either in the break or in service of others. Kung and Scotson are less proven on the cobbles but strong. Van Hooydonck is more interesting, 2 at Paris Roubaix juniors in 2013 and 5 at the Paris Roubaix Espoirs last year.

 

[jaylew]

This year QuickStep has won every single cobbled race bar Gent. Absurd, (but last year it was GVA who was winning everything). It looks like a resurrection of the old Mapei. At this point I expect Gilbert, Terpstra and Stybar entering the velodrome after having dropped everyone, 1996 remake.

To be fair, they were shut out of opening weekend as well.

 

[Singer01]

Re: Re:

OP if making the OP, please add the race profile or map for everyone's convenience?

That would be nice indeed. Not sure what sense it makes to do an OP which doesn't contain any tangible information whatsoever.

Some people aren't detail nerds, they just want to discuss the race?

 

[therhodeo]

Re: Re:

OP if making the OP, please add the race profile or map for everyone's convenience?

That would be nice indeed. Not sure what sense it makes to do an OP which doesn't contain any tangible information whatsoever.

Some people aren't detail nerds, they just want to discuss the race?

Course info is "the race".

 

[Singer01]

Re: Re:

OP if making the OP, please add the race profile or map for everyone's convenience?

That would be nice indeed. Not sure what sense it makes to do an OP which doesn't contain any tangible information whatsoever.

Some people aren't detail nerds, they just want to discuss the race?

Course info is "the race".

I don't need a profile of a route, or lots of pretty pictures to talk about it, lots of peope don't.
I don't see why those people who aren't into this detail should have to wait to discuss the race for someone to create an elaborate initial post. That being said I accept i'm in a minority on this board in thinking like this.

 

[Blanco]

So, as things stands right now in this forum, Sagan is 5x bigger favorite than Van Avermaet, and Gilbert 6x !!! Last year's winner on one side, and 1x Top 10 finisher and the guy who rode this race only once and finished 52nd on the other!!??
Tell you what, Greg Van Avermaet will finish, not only ahead of those two, but minutes ahead of them!

 

[Winnen]

Head: GvA, Terpstra, Sagan

Heart: van Baarle, Pedersen, Vanmarcke

 

[tomorrow]

Re:

So, as things stands right now in this forum, Sagan is 5x bigger favorite than Van Avermaet, and Gilbert 6x !!! Last year's winner on one side, and 1x Top 10 finisher and the guy who rode this race only once and finished 52nd on the other!!??
Tell you what, Greg Van Avermaet will finish, not only ahead of those two, but minutes ahead of them!

Well, based on the style how GVA rides it's very probable he will finish in front of Sagan or Gilbert. However, at least on Sagan it won't most definitely be minutes, only if some mechanical or crashes happen.
Nevertheless, as far as actually winning is concerned, the only scenario I can see GVA winning is spring of small group where there is no Sagan, or spring of small group, where Sagan has made most of the work. With current Sagans attitude, the latter is almost impossible.
Sagan on the other hand can win from larger group, where e.g. there is Demare, from a small group. Imho he won't win alone. As I see it now, Sagan won't be dropped by Vanmarcke, but with GVA it's possible.
Well, Gilbert has bigger chance of winning, not because he would be that good, but because he's Quickstep and I think there's maybe 70% chance of another QS win.

 

[therhodeo]

Hard to look past a former 6th place finisher like Sagan.

 

[KGB]

1.Sagan
2.GVA
3.Stybar
Sagan with GVA will kill any Gilbert dream about wining P-R.