2018 Paris - Roubaix

[Brullnux]

Re:

The scenario will be the same as in E3 and Ronde. They will never learn.

Sagan and GVA will be looking too much at Gilbert. A perfect opportunity for Terpstra to go clear along a couple of lesser, semi-unknown names. These riders will eventually get dropped by Terpstra on the cobbles.

At least Vanmacke and Naesen better react to Terpstra. He is more dangerous than Gilbert.

BMC should also use their numbers better. It's the second strongest team. Küng and Roelandts are always there. And instead of using Oss as a workhorse, Sagan could use him as a anchor. He is strong enough to sit on Terpstra's wheel.

I agree with a lot of this, but I think that people will watch Gilbert much less in a race which he has only ever raced once, rather than one he has won. Terpstra, as a former winner, will be looked at more. But this obviously still leaves stybar, who is good enough on the cobbles to drop everyone but Vanmarcke and Terpstra.

Also re oss, he's normally much better here than in Belgium, so I expect he'll play a similar role to last year.

 

[Velolover2]

I really hope so. It's better to have Oss up front in a break than having him pulling the reduced favorite group for no reason.

If Sagan is strong enough he could do what GVA did last year.

 

[tomorrow]

Re:

I really hope so. It's better to have Oss up front in a break than having him pulling the reduced favorite group for no reason.

If Sagan is strong enough he could do what GVA did last year.

Yup, exactly my ideas. However, there is still Burghardt, who did very well last year to. Then there is Bodnar, so Sagan can definitely afford for someone to go up front. And maybe they shouldn't even wait for QS to attack and act like an anchor, but to provoke some some quickstepper and cooperated a little bit for a start, and then, when they are like 30s away, stop working.

 

[Oliver]

Niki or Styby.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

I really hope so. It's better to have Oss up front in a break than having him pulling the reduced favorite group for no reason.

If Sagan is strong enough he could do what GVA did last year.

DSs are not complete idiots to let Oss go in the similar break to give Sagan free ride till the finale.

He should stay with him as long as possible. Attack with him when is possible to isolate some steppers and help Sagan chase when it will be some multi-attack. ( Sagan cannot rely only on him in chasing otherwise he will be again alone in last 40 km, he has to be active, I think on Sunday he will the strongest one )

 

[LPP68!]

Sagan is much better in asphalt then in cobbles. He is no Boonen. He uses raw power to ride them and he spends to much energy on them and that resulting in flats or missing energy in finale.

Belgium cobbles are quite ok but PR cobbles is another cup at coffee.

He has to be one level stronger then his rivals to win, or have tons of luck or mega conservative race.

He is not strong enough to win the race alone but still strong enough to decide who will lose and I have a feeling that this year he will bury the chances of Gilbert.

My heart: Sagan, SVM
My head: Stybar, Terpstra,

I remember the Rio olympic mtb-race, where Sagan rode in the top3 until a puncture slowed him down. It sounded *whiz* (Schurter) *slightly louder whiz* (Kulhavy) *Rattle BANG BANG* (Sagan). All 3 amazingly fast, but no surprise that Schurter had some energy left in the tank for an attack in the last lap, and Sagan had a puncture and a crash.

 

[pastronef]

hoping for a SKY win

 

[glassmoon]

Voted for Niki. But heart says Wout

 

[topcat]

I don't gamble but if I did I'd bet the house on Phil Gil and the house always wins, otherwise there wouldn't be a house.

 

[tomorrow]

Re: Re:

I really hope so. It's better to have Oss up front in a break than having him pulling the reduced favorite group for no reason.

If Sagan is strong enough he could do what GVA did last year.

DSs are not complete idiots to let Oss go in the similar break to give Sagan free ride till the finale.

He should stay with him as long as possible. Attack with him when is possible to isolate some steppers and help Sagan chase when it will be some multi-attack. ( Sagan cannot rely only on him in chasing otherwise he will be again alone in last 40 km, he has to be active, I think on Sunday he will the strongest one )

You mean DSs of Bora or other teams. Because Bora actually has better team for Roubaix than for Flanders. Bodnar should be able to stay at least to 50km to the finish, maybe even 40km. And Burghardt with Oss should be able to stay much longer. So actually they could afford to send one guy ahead.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I really hope so. It's better to have Oss up front in a break than having him pulling the reduced favorite group for no reason.

If Sagan is strong enough he could do what GVA did last year.

DSs are not complete idiots to let Oss go in the similar break to give Sagan free ride till the finale.

He should stay with him as long as possible. Attack with him when is possible to isolate some steppers and help Sagan chase when it will be some multi-attack. ( Sagan cannot rely only on him in chasing otherwise he will be again alone in last 40 km, he has to be active, I think on Sunday he will the strongest one )

You mean DSs of Bora or other teams. Because Bora actually has better team for Roubaix than for Flanders. Bodnar should be able to stay at least to 50km to the finish, maybe even 40km. And Burghardt with Oss should be able to stay much longer. So actually they could afford to send one guy ahead.

What's up with Pöstlberger and Saramotins since they won't ride? Pöstlberger has been injured but is racing Itzulia (though poorly) and the Latvian HD'ed in Catalunya and hasn't raced since. But PR is his race.

 

[EroicaStradeBianche]

Bore has to get smart. They cannot keep Burghardt and Oss alongside Sagan for the whole race until they'll be dropped like in Flanders. They have to attack with them even before arenberg, it's the only way to brake the quickstep superiority. Last sunday they were chasing with Oss at 50 from the finish, why? Let Quickstep do the work, and attack from far with Oss, Burghadt, Bodnar... otherwise it'll be the same scenario of Flanders

 

[spiritualride]

Re: Re:

Maybe GVA isn't being voted so much because QS is so strong and Gilbert is an unknown for this race, so he's a fun pick. While Sagan could be seen as having had very bad luck last year, leaving GVA for a fairly lucky (though deserved) win. I agree though GVA has nearly as good a chance as anyone.

Some people aren't detail nerds, they just want to discuss the race?

Course info is "the race".

I don't need a profile of a route, or lots of pretty pictures to talk about it, lots of peope don't.
I don't see why those people who aren't into this detail should have to wait to discuss the race for someone to create an elaborate initial post. That being said I accept i'm in a minority on this board in thinking like this.

Lots of people don't, but why not have a little simple courtesy to those that do care to have actual information about a race to start the discussion about the race? It takes seconds to add a few simple images or links. If you want to discuss a race, maybe spend 20 seconds to add useful info and post a new thread? Maybe that's too elaborate for some people.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

Bore has to get smart. They cannot keep Burghardt and Oss alongside Sagan for the whole race until they'll be dropped like in Flanders. They have to attack with them even before arenberg, it's the only way to brake the quickstep superiority. Last sunday they were chasing with Oss at 50 from the finish, why? Let Quickstep do the work, and attack from far with Oss, Burghadt, Bodnar... otherwise it'll be the same scenario of Flanders

That is what I said. They have to help attack QS riders everytime it is chance to get rid of one of them, the same for each none QS rider.

But Sagan cannot stay alone for last 40 -50 km like always !!! Oss should have enough skill, experience and engine to stay with Sagan unless he will kill himself for pointless chasing or pointless attacking.

Of course, if he could pull the same trick as last year, it would not be a pointless attack, but no way peloton give him such a long rope if any.

I see no reason why Bora should do some break chasing unless some QS rider is there. That supposed to be QS job.

 

[DNP-Old]

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

Wout van Aert ftw

 

[Lexman]

Van Aert reckons the cobbles and says : slippery they are especially before the Bois de Wallers

http://sporza.be/cm/sporza/wielrennen/1.3174086

 

[therhodeo]

Re: Re:

Wout van Aert ftw

Or Stybar.

 

[Durden93]

I’m intrigued by Gilbert but the problem for me is that in recent years Roubaix has been decided by a sprint. He won’t beat Sagan, Kristoff or GVA but what about guys like Vanmarke, Naesen, Stuyven, Moscon, etc? I’ll take EBH as my sleeper.

 

[therhodeo]

Re:

I’m intrigued by Gilbert but the problem for me is that in recent years Roubaix has been decided by a sprint. He won’t beat Sagan, Kristoff or GVA but what about guys like Vanmarke, Naesen, Stuyven, Moscon, etc? I’ll take EBH as my sleeper.

Wasn't a sprint in 10, 11, 12, and 14, and 13 was only a 2 up sprint won by a non-sprinter. 16 was also won from a small group sprint by a non-sprinter.

 

[Norbea]

Re:

KRISTOFF

He hasn´t figured out P-R. It is more for EBH. Kristoff also complains that his new team has given him instructions to lose weight. He is 78 kg and says that's his "summer weight". He usually performs better if he weighs 79-80 in the spring. It is colder, the races are long and he avoids getting ill.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

I’m intrigued by Gilbert but the problem for me is that in recent years Roubaix has been decided by a sprint. He won’t beat Sagan, Kristoff or GVA but what about guys like Vanmarke, Naesen, Stuyven, Moscon, etc? I’ll take EBH as my sleeper.

Wasn't a sprint in 10, 11, 12, and 14, and 13 was only a 2 up sprint won by a non-sprinter. 16 was also won from a small group sprint by a non-sprinter.

'16 was from one of the biggest groups contesting the win in quite some years.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I’m intrigued by Gilbert but the problem for me is that in recent years Roubaix has been decided by a sprint. He won’t beat Sagan, Kristoff or GVA but what about guys like Vanmarke, Naesen, Stuyven, Moscon, etc? I’ll take EBH as my sleeper.

Wasn't a sprint in 10, 11, 12, and 14, and 13 was only a 2 up sprint won by a non-sprinter. 16 was also won from a small group sprint by a non-sprinter.

'16 was from one of the biggest groups contesting the win in quite some years.

'16 had a 5 man group, same as in '17, smaller than '15, and '14 had a group of 11 after the last significant sector

 

[Netserk]

So the second biggest group contesting the win in the last two decades. Agree? Doesn't really fit to call that a small group in this context.

 

[Red Rick]

Haven't checked, but I agree that 5 is big historically.