2018 Paris - Roubaix

[Laplaz]

Politt also strong today, but Dillier rider of the day for me.

 

[Frankschleck]

Re: Re:

There won't be a way around QS, I think. Stybar netting a big one would be great. However, this is Roubaix and with all the madness I could definitely see an outsider hanging on from the early break or a super-dom sent ahead with 60 to go get the win. All things considered, obvious Silvan Dillier win is obvious.

Btw, why is Marc Soler racing this?

Who would've thought Sagan was so strong?

I think Dillier will look back on this later in his career and think what might have been. There was no reason for him to take a pull in the lat 5km, let alone go to the front as they passed under the Flamme Rouge.

He'd probably have lost whatever he did, but he certainly didn't give himself the best opportunity to win.

I agree. No reason to lead after making it over the cobbles.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Re: Re:

Don't forget that Sagan couldn't be considered a major threat. Not only had he shown sub par form before today, he was also brought back relatively easily last week. Couldn't have anticipated Diller's strength and contribution. And today he went with 50k to go.

Just like last week, there was no way to know that this move was the move.

Unless you have seen any other classic this season, where a very similar scenario has panned out.

That's what I posted earlier in the thread, actually. The depth has changed and the peloton isn't used to the correct tactic. The "early move" had been seen as QS using it's numbers, but should be interpreted as the best way to avoid the prisoner's dilema that happens as 10 favorites have to chase. Hindsight is 20-20, and even our analysis might not reflect the actual dynamics of this spring season

 

[Sestriere]

Re: Re:

There won't be a way around QS, I think. Stybar netting a big one would be great. However, this is Roubaix and with all the madness I could definitely see an outsider hanging on from the early break or a super-dom sent ahead with 60 to go get the win. All things considered, obvious Silvan Dillier win is obvious.

Btw, why is Marc Soler racing this?

Who would've thought Sagan was so strong?

I think Dillier will look back on this later in his career and think what might have been. There was no reason for him to take a pull in the lat 5km, let alone go to the front as they passed under the Flamme Rouge.

He'd probably have lost whatever he did, but he certainly didn't give himself the best opportunity to win.

Yeah he should have tried to sit in more in the last 4km cause he is no slouch in a sprint. Not sure if it had worked though as the gap was still pretty big and Sagan would not have needed to really ride hard at the front. However, AG2R probably needed a big result in the classics.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Dreams do come through from time to time!

Great ride by Dillier and I'm not sure if Sagan would have made it to the finish line alone without him.

Kudos to both!

i think Sagan could have ridden away from the other two earlier but there was no point doing that with the lead they built. Why make it harder than he needed to ? Still Dillier was impressive to hang on.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Don't forget that Sagan couldn't be considered a major threat. Not only had he shown sub par form before today, he was also brought back relatively easily last week. Couldn't have anticipated Diller's strength and contribution. And today he went with 50k to go.

Just like last week, there was no way to know that this move was the move.

You never know that before, you know after though

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

There won't be a way around QS, I think. Stybar netting a big one would be great. However, this is Roubaix and with all the madness I could definitely see an outsider hanging on from the early break or a super-dom sent ahead with 60 to go get the win. All things considered, obvious Silvan Dillier win is obvious.

Btw, why is Marc Soler racing this?

Who would've thought Sagan was so strong?

I think Dillier will look back on this later in his career and think what might have been. There was no reason for him to take a pull in the lat 5km, let alone go to the front as they passed under the Flamme Rouge.

He'd probably have lost whatever he did, but he certainly didn't give himself the best opportunity to win.

When he looks back on this later in his career, he'll see that he rode like a man!

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

There won't be a way around QS, I think. Stybar netting a big one would be great. However, this is Roubaix and with all the madness I could definitely see an outsider hanging on from the early break or a super-dom sent ahead with 60 to go get the win. All things considered, obvious Silvan Dillier win is obvious.

Btw, why is Marc Soler racing this?

Who would've thought Sagan was so strong?

I think Dillier will look back on this later in his career and think what might have been. There was no reason for him to take a pull in the lat 5km, let alone go to the front as they passed under the Flamme Rouge.

He'd probably have lost whatever he did, but he certainly didn't give himself the best opportunity to win.

When he looks back on this later in his career, he'll see that he rode like a man!

And lost like a sheep.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

wolfpack
sent
packing

how many teams would die for a PR podium..

Not today

 

[jaylew]

Let's not act like they didn't try to catch him. Sagan was just the strongest on the day. When Wout and Stuyven never got close, it was clear Sagan was on a good one. And frankly, he looked good to me at Flanders as well. I never really understood why people were saying he didn't.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

imagine that...
https://twitter.com/Paris_Roubaix/status/983005255716757504

 

[d-s3]

I don't get this criticism for Dillier.
Sagan was clearly strong. Should Dillier not cooperate, Sagan would attack him. Dillier would likely get caught by the group.
This way, he got second and he had (albeit a very distant) chance to win.

IMHO I think they made a deal that Sagan did not go full speed on cobbles and Dillier worked with him on tarmac.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Don't forget that Sagan couldn't be considered a major threat. Not only had he shown sub par form before today, he was also brought back relatively easily last week. Couldn't have anticipated Diller's strength and contribution. And today he went with 50k to go.

Just like last week, there was no way to know that this move was the move.

Unless you have seen any other classic this season, where a very similar scenario has panned out.

That's what I posted earlier in the thread, actually. The depth has changed and the peloton isn't used to the correct tactic. The "early move" had been seen as QS using it's numbers, but should be interpreted as the best way to avoid the prisoner's dilema that happens as 10 favorites have to chase. Hindsight is 20-20, and even our analysis might not reflect the actual dynamics of this spring season

It was the case in almost every big one day race in 2017 too. Waiting is for suckers at the moment. And as you say, it’s largely because the chase is invariably disorganized.

 

[classic1]

Sagan = Sean Kelly.
Dillier = Rudy Rogiers.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I don't get this criticism for Dillier.
Sagan was clearly strong. Should Dillier not cooperate, Sagan would attack him. Dillier would likely get caught by the group.
This way, he got second and he had (albeit a very distant) chance to win.

IMHO I think they made a deal that Sagan did not go full speed on cobbles and Dillier worked with him on tarmac.

Nonsense. Dillier could easily have just sat on during the final 5km and there was nowhere for Sagan to drop him. And even if he somehow did, Dillier would still have comfortably finished 2nd.

Coming to the front just as they passed under the Flamme Rouge was inexplicable tactics. He turned a situation where he maybe had a 20% chance of winning, into a situation where he had about a 2% chance.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Was it? It was a great move by Sagan, clearly he's studied the passivity of the other favourites and thought the gamble worth while. But other than that, there weren't many great tactics on show. Even Dillier didn't attempt to create problems in the last 10km.

I think the only one who could have closed the gap to Sagan this year was Terpstra.

GVA tried to react but he was clearly below his 2017-shape.

Yeah, Terpstra's definitely the one who missed out the most. He was in monstrous shape today. Let down by the hubristic tactics of Quickstep though. I guess they can't win them all, but still, they should have made more of a race of it today.

I doubt he would have ridden away from Sagan and had no chance in a sprint.

I agree. Terpstra didn't look "monstrous" to me, evident from the fact that he was unable to drop Vanmarcke, Stuyven and GVA on the pavés. He was definitely good and this was probably the edition of Paris Roubaix where he was strongest (mind you, he was dropped numerous times in 2014 before let go). But when he's got no team to back him up, being marginally stronger than the others is of little use.

Pretty sure he did exactly that, even if it was on one of the last segments.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Pretty sure he did exactly that, even if it was on one of the last segments.

Exactly. If he would have followed Sagan's move then we would have had a proper race on, rather than a procession for the last 40km.

 

[d-s3]

With 5km to go they had nearly one minute. Sagan could stay at the front and freewheel to the stadium.

 

[Frankschleck]

Re: Re:

I don't get this criticism for Dillier.
Sagan was clearly strong. Should Dillier not cooperate, Sagan would attack him. Dillier would likely get caught by the group.
This way, he got second and he had (albeit a very distant) chance to win.

IMHO I think they made a deal that Sagan did not go full speed on cobbles and Dillier worked with him on tarmac.

Nonsense. Dillier could easily have just sat on during the final 5km and there was nowhere for Sagan to drop him. And even if he somehow did, Dillier would still have comfortably finished 2nd.

Coming to the front just as they passed under the Flamme Rouge was inexplicable tactics. He turned a situation where he maybe had a 20% chance of winning, into a situation where he had about a 2% chance.

this. Doesn't make sense that he did one pull after the cobbled sectors. Would have been very hard for Sagan to drop him, and even if he did he would still get a podium.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

With 5km to go they had nearly one minute. Sagan could stay at the front and freewheel to the stadium.

Sure, then if you're Dillier make him do that. And at the very least enter the Velodrome in the stronger position.

 

[Bardamu]

Impressive race by Sagan. Deserves this victory and was fortunate that Dillier kept on helping on the asfalt.

Even when Quickstep disappoints a bit they manage to grab third place. The three Belgians messed up by letting Terpstra ride away. Stuyven didn't seem happy with the way GvA rode.

 

[yaco]

Posted last week that Sagan looked strong in Flanders but mis-timed his attack on the final climb - Strange tactics by QS sending riders up the road too far from the final - Anyway Sagan was super-impressive today.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Posted last week that Sagan looked strong in Flanders but mis-timed his attack on the final climb - Strange tactics by QS sending riders up the road too far from the final - Anyway Sagan was super-impressive today.

The Gilbert attack was hopeful.........

 

[WheelofGear]

Let's admit it, Roubaix is too flat for PhilGil. He needs hills like in Tour of Flanders and E3 Harelbeke.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Pretty sure he did exactly that, even if it was on one of the last segments.

Exactly. If he would have followed Sagan's move then we would have had a proper race on, rather than a procession for the last 40km.

It didn't seem like one to me, maybe because it wasn't one guy, went from 4 to 3 to 2 and I never thought a Sagan win was a given as Sagan looked a bit tired. Dillier looked really strong to me and I thought he had a good shot with his track experience. I thoroughly enjoyed it and was on pins and needles at the end.