2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 14: Saint Vincent-Courmayeur 131 km

[46&twoWheels]

Re: 2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 14: Saint Vincent-Courmayeur 13

to summarize:

-Roglic needs to focus on Carapaz now (Unless he loves Vincenzo too much....in any case,the post ITT hierachy is losing value )
-Nibs will have his mind busy with his lover Roglic AND Carapaz. He can lose time to anybody but he still needs to show he can gain on somebody. Let's see.
-Carapaz and Movistar have to check all movements (+ Landa?). Keeping everything under control is energy-draining but they're the strongest.
-Landa woud be, technically, the dangerous freebird of the race unless he's put in gulag-mode by Movistar.
-MAL is still annoying with his attacks and cannot be underestimated


conclusion: it's an orgy!

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

Rofl

Yeah now Movistar can control all the way to Mortirolo where Roglic can get dropped by Carapaz once more.

By Tuesday Landa might be more rested than he was today and decide that he wants to join the party

 

[johnymax]

Re: 2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 14: Saint Vincent-Courmayeur 13

I get that not everybody sees carapaz as the favorite but how you can argue today went well for Roglic is beyond me. He basically went from "outstanding favorite, nobody except maybe Nibali can beat him" to "not even in pink and behind a seemingly stronger climber" in two days. How on earth is that good?

I see Carapaz as the favourite now.

For Roglic of course it'd be better if he had gained time on everyone or if he was s.t. with Carapaz. There's not denying that. I just don't see how can you say that he lost the Giro today. He's still very much in contention. There are still positives to take from this stage. For instance, I thought he looked better on San Carlo then I thought he would. He was the second strongest with Nibali there.

Also I don't think many of those who follow cycling closely saw Roglic as an "outstanding favourite, nobody except maybe Nibali can beat him", especially if you consider his weak team. The Movistar duo, Yates and Lopez were always a threat from the beginning. The only surprising thing is how unbelievable strong Carapaz is. He's been underestimated the whole time. Even today during the stage when I watched on RAI they always talked about Nibali vs Roglic vs Landa.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Rofl

Yeah now Movistar can control all the way to Mortirolo where Roglic can get dropped by Carapaz once more.

you really dont know Roglic very well, do you ; Carapaz, come on

No I just watched cycling the last 2 days.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: 2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 14: Saint Vincent-Courmayeur 13

I don’t think Roglic wants pink yet.

this

have to laugh at the"he lost the Giro today"
He just doesnt have the team to control the race

Of course he didn't lose the Giro today. But to say that he just gave it up un purpose is silly as well.

 

[topt]

Re: 2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 14: Saint Vincent-Courmayeur 13

I get that not everybody sees carapaz as the favorite but how you can argue today went well for Roglic is beyond me. He basically went from "outstanding favorite, nobody except maybe Nibali can beat him" to "not even in pink and behind a seemingly stronger climber" in two days. How on earth is that good?

Roglic is a class better than everybody else in this race and will win with as little effort possible.

 

[topt]

Re: 2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 14: Saint Vincent-Courmayeur 13

I don’t think Roglic wants pink yet.

this

have to laugh at the"he lost the Giro today"
He just doesnt have the team to control the race

Of course he didn't lose the Giro today. But to say that he just gave it up un purpose is silly as well.

why ? cause he hasnt done that once before ?

 

[Oliver]

Now Nibs and Roglic has to stop looking at each other. But I doubt Roglic is better then this. He can' t give Carapaz any freedom much more, otherwise he's playing with fire.

 

[Jagartrott]

This wasn't a good day by any measure for Roglic. Gifting a better climber with a better team minutes is not very smart. There are plenty of mountains to come, and only one TT where Carapaz will not lose minutes. The racing today was extremely daft by a number of protagonists.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Thank god they didnt give Sam Oomen more time, he has peaked for this exact moment.

 

[DanielSong39]

Wow, Carapaz

He can actually win this race!

 

[Lequack]

Re:

This wasn't a good day by any measure for Roglic. Gifting a better climber with a better team minutes is not very smart. There are plenty of mountains to come, and only one TT where Carapaz will not lose minutes. The racing today was extremely daft by a number of protagonists.

But same can be said for all the others. If Roglic has a bad day Nibali would be first in line to take the Giro, now he needs two people to have a bad day.

What I wonder the most is that their DSes were telling them via radio. It the DSes were saying do not chase then it's probably their fault and not the riders themselves.

 

[Salvarani]

Carapaz has been really good this Giro. Him being so strong comes as no surprise at this point.

I still dont think Landa should automatically become his "super dom" just yet though. Lets see what happens tomorrow.

3rd week is still very difficult and anything can happen. Anyone can have a bad day.

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Re:

This wasn't a good day by any measure for Roglic. Gifting a better climber with a better team minutes is not very smart. There are plenty of mountains to come, and only one TT where Carapaz will not lose minutes. The racing today was extremely daft by a number of protagonists.

But same can be said for all the others. If Roglic has a bad day Nibali would be first in line to take the Giro, now he needs two people to have a bad day.

So far...

Help Roglic chase or just have Roglic on his wheel, people will criticize that.

Not help him chase and others getting away while they play cat and mouse, people will criticize that.

Trying to drop Roglic going all out, might not be very wise right now. That is something for the 3rd week and if Roglic show weakness. Roglic hasnt shown much weakness at all so far and it is a very hard 3rd week coming up. Going all out on these stages might make you have a bad day next week. Where he will need to drop him.

Neither of these seem to be any good choices. He knows he will have to drop Roglic big to have a chance to make up enough time and to gain time. So far it hasnt been an opportunity. Others have benefitted up to this point by their mind games and duel towards each other. Now they cant really let that happen no more though, unless they are spent of course.

Nibali might also just be pacing himself. Maybe he has eyed up a stage like tomorrow, that really suits him, to make a serious move or one of the stages in the 3rd week. Maybe there is simply better and stronger riders than him in the race. Who knows.

What we do know is Roglic and Nibali cant just be marking each other anymore.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Bob Jungels finished 47th today, 17'25" after Carapaz.

Ditching the Ardennes classics was definitely the right move.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Bob Jungels finished 47th today, 17'25" after Carapaz.

Ditching the Ardennes classics was definitely the right move.

I'm gonna just sit and laugh at this for half a minute.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Wake up people, Roglic (and the others) just weren't strong enough to stay with Carapaz uphill, end of the story.
Still, the Giro is very long and hard, anything can still happen.

Indeed. But certainly not to the point of losing almost two minutes.

This is correct.
So who benefited the most in the chase group?`

Easy answer: Roglic.

Yup. The first 160kms tomorrow are flat, and it's now Movistar's job to ride on the front for that.

Roglic doesn't need to gain time on anybody, he has a TT for that.

How the hell did Roglic benefited from losing 2 minutes to a guy who climbs better than him, has a team 10 times stronger than his, there are still 4 mountain stages left and a short ITT with a climb the middle?

The question was “who benefited most in the chase group.” Of those in the chase group, Roglic probably did better out of Carapaz gaining time, because now Nibali has to attack Movistar.

Obviously the day’s big winner was Carapaz. But it wasn’t the worst possible outcome for Roglic.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Bob Jungels finished 47th today, 17'25" after Carapaz.

Ditching the Ardennes classics was definitely the right move.

Lefevere probably thought that with Alaphilippe and Gilbert in the team he didn't need Jungels at the Ardennes. Now he knows he doesn't need him in the GTs either.

 

[repre]

Re:

Bob Jungels finished 47th today, 17'25" after Carapaz.

Ditching the Ardennes classics was definitely the right move.

Are you gonna post this every day until he'll turn the clock back and ride Ardennes?

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

Bob Jungels finished 47th today, 17'25" after Carapaz.

Ditching the Ardennes classics was definitely the right move.

Are you gonna post this every day until he'll turn the clock back and ride Ardennes?

Maybe.

Here’s a natural talent for one-day racing and rolling terrain, and he prefers to suffer for an elusive top-15 in a mountainous Grand Tour. This is not his fight, this is not his strength.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Me thinks Roglic is still the first candidate to win the Giro, but only just. He's been way too passive and too focused on Nibali in the past two days. If he had just taken the lead on the final climb yesterday and today he would still have been at least a minute ahead of Carapaz. However he seems to think that leading on a climb will immediately lose him the race, or is this the fault of his DS? I remember Indurain leading for kilometers on the final climb when he had no more teammates. The worst that can happen is losing a few seconds in the final km.

Carapaz is a real threat now to win the Giro. He needs about a minute before the ITT. The big question is whether Roglic will be able to follow him on the Mortirolo - or come back in the descent if necessary. Until now Roglic never seemed to bother about Movistar's attacks, but that will be different now. Movistar should keep doing what it has done the past three days: isolating Roglic and attacking him. Maybe Landa could try something tomorrow; Carapaz has to attack on the Mortirolo.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Roglic doesnt have close to the same monster engine that Indurain has and quite frankly, I think Rogla is too afraid of going to deep due to him being a 'new' on this stage. Its super interesting, I cant remember such a tactical GT in a good sense.

 

[Oude Geuze]

Things will become much better for Roglic now that movistar will be pacing the mountains instead of attacking like mad men. At least he can hope for some cohesion in the MS team, but I’m not certain the pecking order has been established and Landa still has aspirations. But it will be much harder to execute 1-2 attacks with two guys close to or in the pink. Infighting might result. I still think it’s Nibali vs Roglic. Super impressed with how mature Roglic handled a very difficult week, with just one strong climber this would have been an easy Giro win for him, but damn it’s exciting!

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Roglic doesnt have close to the same monster engine that Indurain has and quite frankly, I think Rogla is too afraid of going to deep due to him being a 'new' on this stage. Its super interesting, I cant remember such a tactical GT in a good sense.

Think 2017 was tactically more interesting.

That being said I have very low standards for pro team tactics cause they didn't attack Monte Grappa in 2017.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Roglic doesnt have close to the same monster engine that Indurain has and quite frankly, I think Rogla is too afraid of going to deep due to him being a 'new' on this stage. Its super interesting, I cant remember such a tactical GT in a good sense.

I think he wasn't going too deep because he can't do more and he wasn't going into red because he is one cold blooded ex-ski jumper and didn't have to put everything on the line. After today it's a completely different game. He faces the strongest team in the race with the best climber in front of him in GC with four mountain stages to come. If Movistar play it right and Carapaz doesn't have a bad day, Roglic doesn't win this Giro, nevermind the fact that he might pay for being in top shape all year long. And of course, there's Nibali.