2019 Giro d'Italia, Stage-by-Stage Analysis

[Eshnar]

Re:

Quick question. Given the current meteorological conditions, with a cold wave expected for the Alps this weekend and with some snow falling, what's the likelihood of a situation like 2013? I see that at least Gavia and Mortirolo passes are still closed to traffic.

Way too early to tell. The weather now does not count, they can clear the road in a few days. It's only important that it does not snow during that particular week.

 

[Carols]

Thread of the Year Award to you! Thanks for all the hard work

 

[Escarabajo]

I cannot envisioned better scenario for contenders for a GT. In the past there has been many more contenders than 6 but in reality the media and fans just add not realistic probabilities. For this year we actually don't know who is the clear favorite and with the 2 best outsiders possible for action:

Bets:
For the win: Dumoulin, Roglic, Yates, Bernal
Outsiders: Nibali, Lopez.

I am hoping for the best and expect that the crashes do not decide the outcome of the race. Other potential problem could be the weather as somebody else mentioned. I just hope those great stages in the last 9 days do not get clipped at all.

 

[SafeBet]

A thread packed with info, as always. Thanks Eshnar.

As for the route, I don't mind it being backloaded. I love the final 10 stages. ITT to San Marino looks too climber-friendly for my taste. Something like the 2013 Saltara ITT would have been much better. First week could benefit from a few hills here and there, but overall I'm not complaining.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Incredible!! Thanks for doing this

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Stage 16 is going to be some show. Good lord.

 

[Laplaz]

Great work Eshnar! Really looking forward now!

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

I cannot envisioned better scenario for contenders for a GT. In the past there has been many more contenders than 6 but in reality the media and fans just add not realistic probabilities. For this year we actually don't know who is the clear favorite and with the 2 best outsiders possible for action:

Bets:
For the win: Dumoulin, Roglic, Yates, Bernal
Outsiders: Nibali, Lopez.

I am hoping for the best and expect that the crashes do not decide the outcome of the race. Other potential problem could be the weather as somebody else mentioned. I just hope those great stages in the last 9 days do not get clipped at all.

I agree that it is an excellent field, and that there are more genuine chances to win this race than there have been in other Giro editions, or for this years Tour for that matter. I will do a slightly different rating.

Giro
Strong chance to win: Dumoulin, Roglic, Yates, Bernal
Reasonable chance to win: Nibali, Lopez
Outside chance to win: Landa

Tour
Strong chance to win: Froome
Reasonable chance to win: Thomas, Quintana, Adam Yates
Outside chance to win: Kruiswik, Fulgsang, Porte

And I think that Landa is a more realistic winner of the Giro than K, F & P are to win the Tour. There are probably also some other outside chances to win the Giro that I am forgetting (and I don't mean Jungels; it's very hard to see him making the top 5).

 

[hammerthaim]

Thanks Eshnar. Top shelf again.
I would not want to ride this Giro let me tell you that. It looks so good damn hard. Everyone is going to be on hands and knees a long way out in some of those back to back mountain stages.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

thanks once again!! brilliant work!!
it really opened my eyes to lots of details that will make a difference in what to expect..

 

[Oliver]

Looking forward to the Giro!

 

[Nirvana]

Regarding the wind in the Orbetello stage you should consider that the Maremma is totally shielded by Corsica from westerly/southwesterly winds coming from hig sea. Due to morphology in the channel between Corsica and Italian coast there is almost always a local synoptic wind blowing from northwest that run parallel to the coast and already a couple of kilometers inland becomes ineffective, the only real exception is when there is Sirocco (southeasterly wind) but is rare situation that usually happens only in the fall and with this route will be headwind.

There are more chances of crosswind inland (especially around Grosseto) in case of wind blowing from northeast because usually is pretty strong in the area, but also northeast wind on the coast becomes the usual northwest so tailwind and even in case of splits could mean a regroupment.

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Regarding the wind in the Orbetello stage you should consider that the Maremma is totally shielded by Corsica from westerly/southwesterly winds coming from hig sea. Due to morphology in the channel between Corsica and Italian coast there is almost always a local synoptic wind blowing from northwest that run parallel to the coast and already a couple of kilometers inland becomes ineffective, the only real exception is when there is Sirocco (southeasterly wind) but is rare situation that usually happens only in the fall and with this route will be headwind.

There are more chances of crosswind inland (especially around Grosseto) in case of wind blowing from northeast because usually is pretty strong in the area, but also northeast wind on the coast becomes the usual northwest so tailwind and even in case of splits could mean a regroupment.

I'm not an expert of those areas, but based on windfinder.com it doesn't seem that unlikely to have some good wind. Even now, according to it, the wind is blowing 15 knots from southeast (Sirocco, as you mentioned), which would definitely mean crosswinds in the first straight down the lagoon. There are still no available forecasts for the day of the stage, though.

 

[Tim Booth]

provisional startlist
https://wielerflits-wpuypigxmvanblj7abke.stackpathdns.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Giro-2019_-Voorlopige-startlijst.pdf

 

[Escarabajo]

provisional startlist
https://wielerflits-wpuypigxmvanblj7abke.stackpathdns.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Giro-2019_-Voorlopige-startlijst.pdf

Narvaez instead of Sosa. Some changes in the team Ineos schedule. Do they want to take Sosa to the Tour?

 

[ferryman]

Brilliant Esh. Great work as ever. Sooo looking forward to this race

 

[Sciatic]

So, with a TT for the final stage and all those climbs in the last week, will ANY sprinters try to stick it out all the way to Verona???

 

[Eshnar]

So, with a TT for the final stage and all those climbs in the last week, will ANY sprinters try to stick it out all the way to Verona???

Probably only Viviani. He's from a town near Verona.

 

[Koronin]

I'd guess Viviani or if one has a the sprinters jersey that sprinter may try to stick it out to collect the jersey after the final stage.

 

[Captain Sensible]

Thank you for all the hard work you put into making this thread .

 

[Amazinmets87]

Which riders are most likely to wear pink after stage 11?

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Which riders are most likely to wear pink after stage 11?

Tbh anyone other than Roglic would be a surprise. The ITTs are perfect for him and he seems in great shape at the moment. Much more than Dumo who is probably aiming at the second half.

 

[Lequack]

Also news of today: Egan Bernal out of Giro d’Italia after collarbone break
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/egan-bernal-out-of-giro-ditalia-after-collarbone-break/

Bernal out of the Giro. I'm thinking Geraint will not be a replacement? He does seem to be in good form though.

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Also news of today: Egan Bernal out of Giro d’Italia after collarbone break
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/egan-bernal-out-of-giro-ditalia-after-collarbone-break/

Bernal out of the Giro. I'm thinking Geraint will not be a replacement? He does seem to be in good form though.

 

[Climbing]

Damn, I was really looking forward to Bernal's Giro.
And even worse, TdF will be even more of a borefest...