2019 Giro d'Italia, Stage-by-Stage Analysis

[Kwibus]

Wow the first 12 days really are bad. Judging on the profiles I thought there were some fun stages, but now that Ive seen the details of those climbs... meh.

Some cool stages in the final part, but overal quite dissapointing imo. Way too backloaded.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Teams beginning to come in, no Betancur on Movistar and Bora are not bringing Konrad either.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Re:

Teams beginning to come in, no Betancur on Movistar and Bora are not bringing Konrad either.

Konrad will ride the Tour with Schachmann and Buchmann. Last year he was their best gt rider, so he gets a chance to ride the Tour.
Movistar bringing Sütterlin is a bit random, he'd be more useful in the Tour for the ttt and the flat stages, he was good in the cobbled classics. I don't get it, but it's Unzue...

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

***** are only for Froome so next:
**** Dumoulin
*** Nibali, Yates
** Roglic
* MAL, Landa

The coincidence of a poster with a Nibali profile picture giving Nibali a better chance to win the Giro than Roglic

Of course you could still be right, if recent history that says that you cannot be too strong in Romandie is any guide. Without any crashes, Roglic should be at least two minutes ahead of Nibali entering week three, so it's a question of having the endurance in week 3, which we know Nibali has. Perhaps on this basis you could argue that NIbali has a better chance of finishing ahead of Roglic head to head, but Roglic's ceiling is surely higher than Nibali's now, so I think that if Dumoulin rides to 2018 standards, and Yates rides to 2018 first 16 stages standards, then Nibali is unlikely to defeat them, whereas Roglic very well could.

Mind you, I was trying to be objective... Roglic looks now like the second coming of Wiggo 2012 or Froomey 2013, can he really be like those two, I mean also win the Grand Tour they have been targeting after smashing every stage race since the beginning of the season? I would also shove some 30 sec. off those two minutes. I know I am optimistic but when Nibali is good, which by all signs he is, he can defend very well in ITTs. Same goes for Yates. Can Roglic defend equally well on real hard multi mountain stages? There are quite a few in the last week. Guess we'll have to wait a bit to find out.

 

[Alexandre B.]

No Pernsteiner for Bahrein. Garosio in.

Hmmm.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

No Pernsteiner for Bahrein. Garosio in.

Hmmm.

Perny was disappointing in these prep races, and I don't think Nibali will lack pure mountain domestiques.
Makes sense to me, although someone like Tratnik would have been better.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

***** are only for Froome so next:
**** Dumoulin
*** Nibali, Yates
** Roglic
* MAL, Landa

The coincidence of a poster with a Nibali profile picture giving Nibali a better chance to win the Giro than Roglic

Of course you could still be right, if recent history that says that you cannot be too strong in Romandie is any guide. Without any crashes, Roglic should be at least two minutes ahead of Nibali entering week three, so it's a question of having the endurance in week 3, which we know Nibali has. Perhaps on this basis you could argue that NIbali has a better chance of finishing ahead of Roglic head to head, but Roglic's ceiling is surely higher than Nibali's now, so I think that if Dumoulin rides to 2018 standards, and Yates rides to 2018 first 16 stages standards, then Nibali is unlikely to defeat them, whereas Roglic very well could.

Tbf, Roglic has never really shone at a grand tour (fourth ahead of kruijswijk and behind two people who also did the giro doesn't count as shining). Of course, he's also never been in such good form, but he was doing pretty well in one week races last year as well and as many riders have shown, there's a big difference between doing well over three weeks and one week. Nibali has the advantage of being more experienced in how to do these races, and seems in pretty good shape (sure, he wasn't dropping Geoghegan Hart, but he was dropping Hirt, something not done in romandie).

 

[Mayomaniac]

Re: Re:

No Pernsteiner for Bahrein. Garosio in.

Hmmm.

Perny was disappointing in these prep races, and I don't think Nibali will lack pure mountain domestiques.
Makes sense to me, although someone like Tratnik would have been better.

Pernsteiner was solid in Catalunya and Trentino, good enough to be the 3rd best climbing domestique.
I guess Tratnik might ride the Tour, another specialist for the TTT.

 

[Red Rick]

Wow the first 12 days really are bad. Judging on the profiles I thought there were some fun stages, but now that Ive seen the details of those climbs... meh.

Some cool stages in the final part, but overal quite dissapointing imo. Way too backloaded.

Only GC riders happy with those first 12 days must be Roglic.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

Pernsteiner was solid in Catalunya and Trentino, good enough to be the 3rd best climbing domestique.

I disagree, but I guess it depends on expectations. The field was weak and I expected him to be with his captain in the last couple of stages, when he was dropped pretty early.

Overall I think Nibali's supporting cast lacks depth. There are two top end climbing domestiques but the rest of the roster is very meh. I understand the best riders will go to the Tour, but one between Tratnik, Dennis, Cortina, Teuns and Mohoric had to be here. No wonder Nibali is looking for another team.

 

[WKA311]

Re:

No Pernsteiner for Bahrein. Garosio in.

Hmmm.

Pernsteiner was battling with illness in Romandie.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Pernsteiner was solid in Catalunya and Trentino, good enough to be the 3rd best climbing domestique.

I disagree, but I guess it depends on expectations. The field was weak and I expected him to be with his captain in the last couple of stages, when he was dropped pretty early.

Overall I think Nibali's supporting cast lacks depth. There are two top end climbing domestiques but the rest of the roster is very meh. I understand the best riders will go to the Tour, but one between Tratnik, Dennis, Cortina, Teuns and Mohoric had to be here. No wonder Nibali is looking for another team.

At least it's almost 100% Italian operation including the DSs. There are quite a few guys ready to die for their captain, only problem is they might be already dead when things will get tough.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Re: Re:

Pernsteiner was solid in Catalunya and Trentino, good enough to be the 3rd best climbing domestique.

I disagree, but I guess it depends on expectations. The field was weak and I expected him to be with his captain in the last couple of stages, when he was dropped pretty early.

Overall I think Nibali's supporting cast lacks depth. There are two top end climbing domestiques but the rest of the roster is very meh. I understand the best riders will go to the Tour, but one between Tratnik, Dennis, Cortina, Teuns and Mohoric had to be here. No wonder Nibali is looking for another team.

I have to agree with you, one of those guys would have really improved the team.
A healthy Padun would be another rider that you'd want to have on the Giro team.
I still think that Pernsteiner would be better than Garosio, at least if he's healthy.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Pernsteiner was solid in Catalunya and Trentino, good enough to be the 3rd best climbing domestique.

I disagree, but I guess it depends on expectations. The field was weak and I expected him to be with his captain in the last couple of stages, when he was dropped pretty early.

Overall I think Nibali's supporting cast lacks depth. There are two top end climbing domestiques but the rest of the roster is very meh. I understand the best riders will go to the Tour, but one between Tratnik, Dennis, Cortina, Teuns and Mohoric had to be here. No wonder Nibali is looking for another team.

At least it's almost 100% Italian operation including the DSs. There are quite a few guys ready to die for their captain, only problem is they might be already dead when things will get tough.

:lol: :lol:

 

[Eshnar]

Wow the first 12 days really are bad. Judging on the profiles I thought there were some fun stages, but now that Ive seen the details of those climbs... meh.

Some cool stages in the final part, but overal quite dissapointing imo. Way too backloaded.

Only GC riders happy with those first 12 days must be Roglic.

Why would he. He could gain much more time if they were harder.

 

[Red Rick]

Active recovery after Romandie.

Don't think there's a chance in hell Roglic rides Romandie if teh Giro isn't a glorified one week race.

Oops, I guess I went there.

 

[Lequack]

I think the Tour climbs suit Roglic more with more constant gradients and less steep. Something like Alpe d'Huez which is a constant 8% almost. Some of the Giro climbs are 10%+ and those would favor the lightweights like Yates, MAL and similar.

 

[Eshnar]

Active recovery after Romandie.

Don't think there's a chance in hell Roglic rides Romandie if teh Giro isn't a glorified one week race.

Oops, I guess I went there.

if he needs recovery after a 5 day race he dominated without opposition, he's not gonna last two days in the Giro...

 

[HelloDolly]

Thanks Eshnar ..great preview thread

My issue is if Dumoulin has to 'profit' from the TT stages the he has to take Pink on the first stage or at least on stage 9 TT...Then he has to defend it till the final TT stage and beyond......very difficult with a team like he has and also with climbers like Yates,Roglic & Nibali who wont be that far if at behind in the IT . Remember Simon Yates TT at Paris Nice.Then there are the pure climbers likeLanda,MAL,Formolo,Chaves, Bilba, Carapaz putting pressure on him

With what Dumoulin is saying about his form and the race set up ..its hard to see him beat Roglic or Yates
Same with Nibali , good form but not the best TT and not as young as he was

yet the beauty of the Giro means that noting is certain and how you ride it is as important as how fit you are

 

[gregrowlerson]

Active recovery after Romandie.

Don't think there's a chance in hell Roglic rides Romandie if teh Giro isn't a glorified one week race.

Oops, I guess I went there.

You are speaking utter nonsense.

No one week races are glorified on this forum

 

[Mayomaniac]

The Astana team is looking scary strong.
The one thing that could hold them back from blowing the race apart on every stage is their leader, MAL isn't the kind of rider who attacks on all kinds of terrain, with him it's mainly about limiting his losses before the big mountain stages.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

The Astana team is looking scary strong.
The one thing that could hold them back from blowing the race apart on every stage is their leader, MAL isn't the kind of rider who attacks on all kinds of terrain, with him it's mainly about limiting his losses before the big mountain stages.

I dont think scary strong. Hirt and Bilbao will have to do quite a lot better than in Trentino and I dont know about Ion for the high mountains. Still, its probably the best collective and the best overall team I'd assume. They are often flying in this race.

 

[Milly]

Does anyone know where to find the rules for the points and mountains classification for each stage?

http://inrng.com/2019/05/giro-italia-2019-guide/

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Teams beginning to come in, no Betancur on Movistar and Bora are not bringing Konrad either.

Konrad will ride the Tour with Schachmann and Buchmann. Last year he was their best gt rider, so he gets a chance to ride the Tour.
Movistar bringing Sütterlin is a bit random, he'd be more useful in the Tour for the ttt and the flat stages, he was good in the cobbled classics. I don't get it, but it's Unzue...

My first thought was to help the riders at the Giro in the first part. In the process get him to be sharper at the Tour. He is not riding for GC so the second part of this Giro he will take it easy.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Wait what, is Sütterlin not riding for GC?!